Tag: Patriots

The New England Patriots will enter the 2025 season with a sense of renewed hope and optimism that has been absent over the past few years. In just the first offseason under new head coach Mike Vrabel, the roster has endured a rather dramatic makeover that has seen several additions and departures of long-time veterans and team captains.

With a young promising quarterback in Drake Maye, and Josh McDaniels returning for a third stint as offensive coordinator, things are expected to change, or rather, revert, to a familiar offense. The Patriots used their first three draft picks on the offensive side of the ball, and with mandatory minicamp soon approaching next month (June 9-11), focus will shift toward implementing McDaniels scheme, and the structuring of how the offense might look come Week 1 in early September.

To do that, the Patriots will need to figure out their wide receiver depth chart. At the moment, there is an unusual logjam at the receiver position. One could argue New England still lacks a top weapon, but between a bevy of returning members and newcomers, the team has around seven or eight receivers that project as 53-man roster options in many NFL teams’ five-receiver depth charts.

In figuring out where players may project within the offense, it’s best to start with what receiver roles may be present within the offense McDaniels is implementing for Maye and company.

Using charting data from PFF, I was able to glean three fairly distinct receiver alignment roles under Josh McDaniels during the three-season stretch from 2020 through 2022. This time included the final two years of McDaniels’s second offensive coordinator stint in New England (2020-2021), and his only full season as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders (2022). These three seasons are not only McDaniels most recent campaigns as a full-time coach, but they’re also key in analyzing and projecting receiver roles, particularly in a post-Tom Brady McDaniels-led offense.

Role 1 (X-receiver)

– This was a fairly easy role to identify between charting data and sampled film watching. This is by and large a boundary X-receiver deployment and downfield/vertical role in both 2-WR sets and 3-WR sets, with little alignment versatility. And as opposed to the heavy usage of condensed formations in Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay tree offenses, McDaniels typical uses wider spacing or formational width, with receivers in this role truly lining up out wide.

– Despite the X-role, none of the receivers above were top playmakers within their offense. There’s a diverse set of skills, body builds and player archetypes in this hodgepodge group. Damiere Byrd’s size for this role was an anomaly (5-9, 175 pounds), but he ran a 4.28 40 at his Pro Day. Mack Hollins carved out a boundary role in the 2022 Raiders offense, and has the requisite size (6-4, 221), but doesn’t necessarily have the explosiveness for the position.

– Nelson Agholor’s best season as a pro came in 2017 for the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, where he spent 86.2% of snaps that season in the slot. After signing with the Patriots, New England used him on the outside for a career-high 90% percentage of snaps for a season. For reference, Agholor has spent 66% of his snaps in the slot in Baltimore over his last two seasons. Toward the end of the year, N’Keal Harry began cutting into his snaps at the position, which is reflected in his similar snap alignment and identical aDot metric.

Roles 2 & 3 (Alignment versatility, Z vs Slot, 2-WR set vs. 3-WR set roles)

– A McDaniels offense is known for operating from the inside out through its slot receivers and tight ends. There’s essentially two different roles here – one with 60-70% of snaps spent outside, and the other with 60-70% of snaps in the slot. Things get a bit too complicated to identify these roles as just ‘Z’ receiver and slot. And there’s some overlap in the above examples on which style of receiver (in terms of deployment/charting data) is used in 2-WR sets.

– We’ll start with Davante Adams, who was still an elite receiver in 2022 in Las Vegas. No receiver in this data or on the current Patriots roster is even close to the level of Adams in 2022, who led the NFL in receiving TDs (14) with 1,516 receiving yards on a career-high 180 targets. For context, in that same 2022 season, Jakobi Meyers led the Patriots with 96 targets. McDaniels deployment of Adams is notable and worth revisiting if the Patriots add a top-flight WR1 in 2026 or beyond. Adams was moved all around the formation and used as a vertical threat in 2022, where he posted a career-high 12.8 aDot.

– The high-volume “WR1” role from a targets perspective has often been the hybrid Z/slot role under McDaniels in New England. This player is primarily a receiver who operates mostly inside on underneath to intermediate routes, both from the slot and off the line on the outside, where the player would often come in motion pre-snap. This receiver would be the flanker in 2-WR sets and often would play in the slot or as a Z-receiver in 3-WR sets or spread looks. Julian Edelman occupied that role for most of his career. Many often lump Edelman, Danny Amendola and Wes Welker as similar players, but remember, both Edelman and Amendola co-existed in the same McDaniels offense for years. Amendola (and Welker) spent over 80% of his career snaps in the slot. Edelman had a role in 2-WR sets and he spent a lesser 55% of his career snaps in the slot, but as he suffered an ACL tear and aged into his 30s, he began to spend more time inside.

– Edelman, then age 34, began the 2020 season as primarily a slot receiver with Cam Newton at the helm, working alongside Damiere Byrd (X) and N’Keal Harry (Z). After six games, Edelman went on IR and later retired that offseason. Between Edelman’s injury and Harry failing to carve out a role as a jumbo Z/move-receiver, Jakobi Meyers took the baton as the new top target. Meyers played more snaps than any other Patriots receiver from Week 8 on in 2020, and then paced the entire depth chart again in 2021 with Mac Jones at QB. He operated as both a slot receiver and as a flanker in two-WR sets. McDaniels eventually signed Meyers away from New England to Las Vegas in 2023.

– Elsewhere, Kendrick Bourne served as a Z-receiver in 2021 in New England in 3-WR sets, working in unison with Meyers as a more productive YAC target on screens, reverses and other designed targets, where as Meyers was given more of the focal routes on key third downs. In 2022 in Las Vegas, Hunter Renfrow worked as a static slot receiver in 3-WR sets, similar to Amendola, and Keelan Cole Jr. mixed in as a vertical slot option who could also play on the outside. Cole led the Raiders in aDOT (17.3) that season and there wasn’t much overlap between him and Renfrow being used on the field at the same time. Renfrow or Cole’s presence on the field probably helped dictate Adams’ pre-snap deployment to a degree that season.

Projecting Patriots 2025 WR Depth Chart

Here is where it gets fun. The first question I pondered with this assignment is – how different will this version of McDaniels offense look with Drake Maye? And after consideration, I really don’t expect the tentpoles of his offense to change that much. Even in his lone full season as Raiders head coach in 2022, which included the force-feeding of targets through the air to Davante Adams, McDaniels still found ample snaps for Josh Jacobs to lead the league in rushing yards (1,653) and gap run concepts (201), per PFF.

This season, I expect New England to either utilize a fullback or run 12 personnel (2-TE sets) to play smash mouth football, run power concepts with pulling guards, and feature play-action passing elements that mimic their gap runs. This means there will be an assortment of 2-WR packages, allowing the distinction of which receivers are worthy of playing in 2-WR sets vs operating in 3-WR sets and other spread looks. Still, like most modern offenses, there should be a heavy dose of 11 personnel groupings, and although I don’t expect the offense to take on any major changes from what Patriots fans are accustomed to, I imagine there will be an uptick of shotgun usage to compliment Maye’s experience and play style. New England may also implement packages and formations that feature zone-read, QB power or other designed QB run concepts like what was seen with Cam Newton at the helm in 2020.

But by and large, this should be a familiar offense. So which of the many receivers currently on the roster will be featured?

– History has not been kind to the Patriots this century when it comes to drafting WRs, but their selection of Kyle Williams in the third round last month drew heaping praise from the NFL Draft community. His blend of speed, downfield explosiveness, acceleration and YAC ability make him a three-level threat from multiple alignments. But even at his size (5-11, 190 lbs), Williams’ ability on tape in college at the X-receiver spot, paired with New England’s need at the position, set him up with a unique opportunity as a Day 2-drafted rookie.

– There’s some history with smaller X-receivers both at the All-Pro/Hall-of-Fame level (Antonio Brown), solid/near Pro Bowl level (Deion Branch) and serviceable level (see Damiere Byrd in 2020 referenced earlier). Branch in New England in 2002-2005 is a good example of how a smaller, shiftier X-receiver fares in an offense such as the one we’ll see this year. McDaniels took over play-calling duties from Charlie Weis in the Patriots Erhardt-Perkins style offense in 2005. Kyle Williams doesn’t quite possess the shiftiness and nuance of Branch then, but he packs more of an explosive punch as a potential vertical separator.

– Kyle Williams spent 74% of his snaps out wide for Washington State last year, and per PFF, he led his draft class with 8.4 YAC per reception (min. 75 targets). According to PFF, Williams was also in the 85th percentile or better in YPPR (yards per route run) on go routes, on screens and on hitch routes in FBS play in 2024, and he was over the 90th percentile both versus man coverage and when lined up in the slot (26% of snaps). Those marks alone exhibit his diverse skill set. He has the ability to line up inside or off-the-line as a flanker, but by midseason, I project Williams to be the team’s top outside receiver in both 2-WR and 3-WR sets.

– Mack Hollins made some big catches for Buffalo late last season, and his breakout year as a receiver was as a perimeter player for McDaniels in Las Vegas in 2022. But Hollins will turn 32 in September. There will be a need for more explosiveness at the position. As it stands, he has a solid chance of being New England’s Week 1 starting X-receiver, at least in 3-WR sets and red zone looks as a jump ball operator, while Williams gets acclimated. Hollins is also a willing and able blocker, experienced special teamer, and he brings a vibe of toughness that Vrabel is looking for. But if the offense is to be at its best, he will serve as more of a rotating X-receiver and in a WR4-type role as the season progresses.

– It appears there’s a chance Stefon Diggs may be ready by Week 1. In his eight weeks on the field last season for the Texans before tearing his ACL, he operated in both 2-WR (Z) and 3-WR sets (slot). He tallied 47 catches during that spurt and finished the year 2nd among WRs in ESPN‘s receiver score metric. But Diggs will turn 32 in November. His age and recent injury suggest he’ll be a different player than in his prime years. Last year was the first time since 2016 where he was charted more in the slot (52.8%) than outside (45.1%), but he still played on the perimeter quite a bit, although some of his “outside” snaps were in Bobby Slowik’s Shanahan/McVay-esque condensed formations.

– There are several receivers who remained tough, higher-volume options well into their 30s, including Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman. All of these receivers saw a significant increase in snaps in the slot as their career continued. Stefon Diggs was once a X-receiver, but there’s a prime opportunity here late in his career to occupy the high-volume hybrid Z/Slot role occupied by Julian Edelman and more recently, Jakobi Meyers. His inside-outside split could veer around 60:40 in either direction, but I expect Diggs to be a factor as a Z-recevier in 2-WR sets.

– Kendrick Bourne and Kayshon Boutte could each have major roles come Week 1 or be off the roster entirely. There’s too much of a logjam here to make any promises. Bourne projects best as a fill-in for Diggs’ reps if the former Bills-Vikings receiver is unable to go Week 1. It’s not 1:1 fill-in, as I see Bourne as mostly a Z-receiver only in 2-WR and 3-WR sets as opposed to a high-volume slot-hybrid role. Bourne’s prime was sort of mismanaged in New England as I thought he had a chance to have a monster year in 2022 as both an inside and outside receiver after showing flashes in the McDaniels offense as a move-piece in 2021. Now, Bourne enters his age-30 season in a strange position considering the additions. I wonder if he’d be an option for a team like the Rams who lack a proven WR3. As for Boutte, he played admirably last year logging more snaps than any New England WR (760) as mostly a X-receiver. He had some moments, but his best role is likely a WR4-type snap count, maybe even as a Z-receiver who can work off the line, but often outside, where he’ll be given more space to operate as a YAC threat. I’m not sure I see a clear fit here in the McDaniels offense considering the state of this depth chart. It was already reported by Adam Schefter before the draft that Boutte may be available or “expendable.”

– DeMario Douglas was first among Patriots WRs in receptions last season (66), and was second on the team in targets (87) and receiving yards (621), behind tight end Hunter Henry. There’s a prime opportunity for him to take on a Danny Amendola or Hunter Renfrow-esque role as the team’s slot receiver in 11 personnel. Like Amendola and Renfrow, Douglas is best used as a slot-only option who plays 80% or more of his snaps inside. Although much more explosive than Amendola or Renfrow, Douglas lacks a bit of the route-running nuances (‘sit’ routes in zone coverage) needed for this role, and despite his speed, he’s still much too undersized (5-8, 192) to play Z-receiver snaps in 2-WR sets. One blocker for Douglas may be the eventual heavy usage of a hypothetical 3-WR set of Mack Hollins (X), Kendrick Bourne/Kyle Williams (Z) and Stefon Diggs (slot/Z) where Diggs almost fully occupies the slot role.

– Ja’Lynn Polk‘s rookie campaign was a year he’d like to forget. The Patriots didn’t do him any favors with his usage as mostly a X-receiver (80% of snaps out wide) in a struggling offense with a patchwork offensive line. I think there is room for six WRs on this roster, and with the possible exodus with guys like Bourne and Boutte by Week 1, paired with his recent draft status as a second-round pick, I think it’s likely Polk is on the roster come Week 1. He deserves a shot to see how he fares in McDaniels’ offense. He has the profile of a stockier Jakobi Meyers-type who can play the Z and slot-receiver roles and win at the catch point (he has historically had great hands). He’ll likely need to work behind the scenes to earn playing time, and if not, I wonder if it’s best if he was traded in August to a Shanahan tree team where he’d be given the chance to revive his career in condensed formation looks and roles that I think would suit him well.

– Elsewhere, both Javon Baker and Efton Chism are noteworthy as receivers attempting to make the roster. Chism is a classic, McDaniels offense-style shifty slot receiver who moves really well. Baker has the potential to earn a spot as a rotational or depth option as a X-receiver considering the small amount of options on the roster, but he has an uphill battle.