Perhaps when the dust settles on the upcoming 2020 NFL season (if there indeed is a season) the most important date of the league’s 101st campaign may end up being a day that has already passed.
March 17th.
On the start of free agency, and over a month before the draft, Tom Brady announced he would be leaving Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots after 20 seasons and six Super Bowl rings with the team.
On that same date, the Carolina Panthers botched their wishful-thinking-based PR move by taking to social media to announce that they were allowing Cam Newton, their NFL MVP quarterback of nine seasons, to seek a trade, which was news to Newton.
After the goodbyes and initial dust settled on Brady joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, many wondered — “Cam Newton to New England?”
We speculated. We wished. We became enamored with the idea.
But as days turned to weeks, weeks turned to months, and that included a NFL Draft where the Patriots passed on drafting a quarterback. By then, most of the media and the Patriots’ fan base talked themselves into 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham as the heir to Brady’s throne, with Brian Hoyer, who is back in New England for a third time, as the backup and mentor.
Now, as of the very end of June, another former Auburn quarterback is the favorite to become New England’s first QB1 in their post-Brady era.
It was a weird time for this move to finally take shape. But these are weird times, indeed. Which is why New England, who reportedly had the least amount of cap space in the NFL before this deal (under $1 million), is somehow signing Newton to an incentive-heavy deal that caps out at $7.5 million over one season. This is during an offseason where the Detroit Lions signed Chase Daniel, a quarterback with five career starts, to a three-year, $13.5 million contract to backup Matthew Stafford.
New England will need to make moves via trades, cuts or extensions — Joe Thuney before July 15? — to be at a realistic cap figure by season’s start, but Belichick almost certainly has a plan.
And although the timing of this signing suggests Belichick simply gave in to the ultimate bargain in Newton, and was willing to ride with Stidham or Hoyer, it appeared New England was building an offense that fits a quarterback with Newton’s skill set.
In Carolina, the Panthers often used Pistol formations that often employed off-line tight ends and H-back/wing back-like players, and Carolina utilized many RPO’s and zone-reads to maximize Newton’s dual-threat skill set.
In the signing of uber-athletic fullback Danny Vitale, and drafting of do-everything H-Back Dalton Keene in the third round out of Virginia Tech, Belichick now has a couple players that fit a Pistol-type scheme.
Additionally, Sony Michel, whose name is a hotbed for controversy — was he worth a first-round pick in 2018? — among the New England fan base, had great success with shotgun, inside zone runs while at the University of Georgia. It would take some practice, but Michel and Newton could thrive a shotgun, zone-read system.
Either with Newton, or Stidham, New England was surely shifting their offense to where they’ll include a mix of Kyle Shanahan-infused concepts (outside zone, heavy motion, bootleg, heavy play-action). They may still lean that way with Newton, but perhaps with a touch of what Baltimore is doing with Lamar Jackson. There will be more designed runs, either via zone-read or by power rushing, to utilize Newton’s skills. We can’t forget, Newton forced more missed tackles (110), ran for more yards (4,806) and more rushing touchdowns (58) than any other quarterback in the 2010’s.
But Newton can also play in the pocket.
While under center, Newton is capable of running bootlegs and reading defenses on play-action concepts that work off a well-oiled rushing attack. In fact, Newton would bet set up for more success in those concepts than he ever was in Carolina, as the Patriots are poised to have one of the league’s better offensive lines with a stout interior, as long as they keep Thuney.
Julian Edelman and James White are the most reliable targets on offense in New England. Both players thrived with Brady. Newton and Brady are different types of passers, but the former 2015 NFL MVP could become successful with some of the timing routes that the veterans were accustomed to with Brady. We saw some of that with Newton throwing to McCaffrey on angle and option routes out of the backfield when the Panthers stared 6-2 in 2018, the last time Newton looked like, well, Newton.
The pass catcher who stands the most to gain with Newton is 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry.
One of Cam’s best qualities is his ability to throw the slant pass to bigger wide receivers. In fact, Newton is one of the best all time passers of that route, rifling the ball in to the perfect spot to the likes of Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin in the past. Harry, a big-bodied (6-foot-4, 2225 pounds) jack-of-all-trades receiver who projects as the Patriots’ top ‘X’ or boundry receiver, should receiver a big boost in his sophomore campaign with Newton, as he projects as a better fit with him than Brady, due to his skills.
Elsewhere, Mohamed Sanu, rookie tight end Devin Asiasi, Rex Burkhead and Damiere Byrd, Newton’s teammate for four years at Carolina, would also been the mix in a Newton-led offense, and each is a pass catcher capable of building a legitamite rapport with Cam.
In a league with unique talents of all kinds at quarterback (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers) now, Newton at his best is uniquely like no other. His peak is perhaps a much more athletic, and better version of Ben Roethlisberger, although he is not as consistent as Big Ben.
But his surrounding help by the way of front office, coaching and personnel, and injury luck had a say in his inconsistency.
In fact, Newton, 31, has lost his last eight starts, and has played just 16 games over the past two seasons, after missing just three games in his first seven seasons in Carolina.
He’s had multiple surgeries to correct a Lisfranc injury that derailed his 2019 season, and shoulder issues that that nagged him before that. In all, he’s had major surgery three different times since 2017.
But judging by his social media posts detailing his workouts and status, it appears Newton is ready to go. He’s eager to prove the Panthers, and the rest of the league that more MVP-level seasons remain in his future. And he’s joining the perfect team to do so. A team with the best head coach in the history of football, and an offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels that changes offensive schemes and game plans on the fly like no other.
In fact, McDaniels drafted Tim Tebow in 2010 when he was the head coach of the Denver Broncos, and conduced a workout for Lamar Jackson himself during the lead up to the 2018 NFL Draft, in which the Patriots were reportedly interested in the dual-threat NFL MVP.
It appears McDaniels, and maybe Belichick, have been itching for this moment. A chance to show what they could do with a new-age franchise quarterback who is just as dangerous as a runner as he is a passer.
Even Newton at 70 percent effectiveness is an upgrade over Stidham, and is good enough to challenge, and defeat the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East crown, and perhaps, challenge the likes of the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers (yes, Pittsburgh will be good) in the AFC, just as they’ve done the past 20 years with Brady at the helm.
Newton to the Patriots always made too much sense, even if New England seemingly wasn’t interested, and risked the chance of Newton signing elsewhere. Eventually, New England got their man. And with an offensive that has begun to lean more on the running game since the latter half of the 2018 season, adding Newton would solidify their move to power-rushing concepts and unique rush-heavy game plans that use concepts from San Francisco and Baltimore’s attacks. As the league has moved to smaller, faster players on defense, Belichick has loaded up on full backs, tight ends, and now, Newton, while passing on drafting a wide receiver, opting to stick with 34-year-old Edelman and 31-year-old Sanu as his top targets.
With last year’s No. 1 defense in both points allowed and total yardage returning on a slightly re-tooled front seven, the Patriots are competent quarterback play away from remaining one of the NFL’s top contenders, and with the chance of Newton being much more than just competent, there’s always a chance that this could become a special season.
Of course, the still-going pandemic of COVID-19 seems to be on the uptick once more, leaving the league vulnerable to a push back, or shortened season, if there is a season at all, no matter how many league statements are made in June in July. As it is, the current landscape makes it harder for newer players to get up to speed. There’s always the extremely slim chance that Stidham beats out Newton for the job, and New England cuts ties with Newton before Week 1.
But assuming the latter, and highly unlikely scenario happens, and the league finds a way to start on time during the Coronavirus outbreak, Newton and the Patriots now rival Brady, Rob Gronkowski and the Bucs as the two most interesting stories in the league, by far.
On March 17th, the Patriots were without a NFL MVP-level quarterback. It was an odd three and a half months. And now, the odd couple of Newton and the Patriots feels just right.
No Guts No Glory 