Mac Jones Practice

Dawn of a new era: Can Mac Jones lead the Patriots back to the playoffs?

Twenty years ago, Bill Belichick was faced with a tough decision at quarterback. 

Taking over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001, Tom Brady made it far too difficult for Belichick to return to the New England Patriots’ then-$100 million man in Bledsoe, when the presumed franchise passer was cleared to play. 

The tough choice to stick with Brady spawned a two-decade dynasty in Foxboro that totaled six Super Bowl wins, nine Super Bowl appearances, 13 AFC title game berths and 17 AFC East division titles.

Now, looking to pick up the pieces after a rough first season without Brady (who added to his Super Bowl total in Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers), ‘The Hoodie’ was tasked with another conundrum at QB.

Cam Newton versus Mac Jones. 

Belichick once again opted for the young, gangly passer over a former No. 1 overall pick when he decided to abruptly extinguish the Cam Newton era, releasing the 2015 NFL MVP before eager Patriots fans at Gillette Stadium ever got the chance to cheer for him in person. 

Now, the keys to the New England’s complex offense belong to Mac Jones, the franchise’s lone first-round pick quarterback (No. 15 overall) of the Belichick era, and first since Bledsoe in 1993. 

Cam Newton and Mac Jones
Mac Jones is a better fit for the Patriots’ offense than Cam Newton. (Screenshot: New England Patriots)

Comparing Jones to Tom Brady outright is a fool’s errand. 

Brady will forever be the face of the franchise. He’s the greatest player in NFL history. Even if Mac Jones’ career is everything the Patriots hope for, there will likely be a statue of Brady built outside the stadium in Foxboro midway through Jones’ New England career, which is something that probably won’t happen for the latter. 

However, it’s fair to say that Jones is of Brady’s mold. Shared attributes include a super-computer football mind, pocket presence, accuracy, poise, and shared “deficiencies”such as a lack of speed and the inability to make off-schedule plays consistently. 

Both have been described as having “adequate” arm strength, despite each displaying deep-shot ability and zip on the ball. (Seriously, go watch this Brady attempt to Randy Moss in Super Bowl 42, or some of his intermediate throws in his 2010 NFL MVP award-winning season.)

ESPN‘s Louis Riddick, a former player of Belichick’s and a brilliant evaluator/analyst amidst a sea of hot-take artists in the business, took to NBC Sports Boston’s ‘Next Pats’ podcast to praise the fit of Jones with the Patriots to Insider Phil Perry:

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“He’s known for being that cerebral, fast-thinking, risk-averse…but at the same time, calculated in terms of the big shots that he takes, type of quarterback. Last time I checked, that’s what wins in the NFL. 

…At quarterback, it’s always been about decision making and accuracy. It always will be about that. Everything else is a bonus. There’s a lot of quarterbacks in this draft that make spectacular plays with their legs. What is going to separate them from the rest, and put them in the category of being elite, is: can they make good decisions and be accurate with the football? It’s really that simple. And Mac [Jones] has shown the ability to do that. 

What did he do this preseason? He was throwing people open. 

His first preseason game, what did they do? They went up-tempo and no-huddle, because things were sluggish for him against Washington. So they go five-empty, and they are just like “zoom, zoom, zoom”. No other rookie quarterback was doing that.”

——-

The decision to go with Jones over Newton came down to Jones being the perfect leader for Josh McDaniels’ offensive schemes and concepts. (As well as having the cap space to build a Super Bowl-winning team around Mac Jones’ four-year, $16 million cheap-as-hell rookie QB contract during Belichick’s presumed final coaching years). 

Many believed that New England “catered” their playbook to Newton last season, but really, Newton was asked to run the Patriots’ offense led by Brady in 2018 and 2019, with the only consistent “Cam-specific” addition to the offense being a small package of QB power-type plays utilized by Newton on the goal line and in short-yardage scenarios. 

Mac Jones and Josh McDaniels
Mac Jones is the prototypical style of quarterback to run Josh McDaniels’ offensive schemes in New England. (Photo: Mark Daniels)

Jones is the perfect fit to run any of New England’s offensive iterations in the Brady era: run-heavy and play-action passing out of I-formation and Singleback under center, quick-passing and timing-based throws out of shotgun empty and spread, and up-tempo attacks with versatile pieces such as New England’s two new tight ends. 

Jones is the type of passer who thrives before the snap and goes through his progressions quicker than most after the snap. Often times last year, Newton’s struggled in New England’s play-action reads from under center. He held onto the ball for too long when scanning the field. Sure, a lack of competent pass-catchers certainly had a lot to do with that, but Newton just didn’t seem to fit New England’s offense, and the Patriots didn’t seem willing to change, nor did they have the time to do so with no preseason and a truncated training camp in the Summer of 2020.

Bill Belichick's Prototypical QB
Mac Jones fits Bill Belichick’s prototypical quarterback template to a tee, as described by Belichick here in a 1991 scouting guide he presumably gave to his Cleveland Browns staff. (Photo by Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network)

Jones is the perfect fit for what the team wants to do. And in 2021, that’s best predicted as an amalgam of their early-dynasty offense from 2001 to 2006 (and again from 2018 to 2020), and their up-tempo, quick-passing, matchup-exploiting scheme from 2010 to 2012 with the tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, paired with Brady at the end of his physical peak. 

Asking for Jones to be anything close to what Brady was from about 2007 to 2017 is incredibly unfair. It won’t happen. But Jones is absolutely capable of mimicking Brady’s early years, when New England won three Super Bowls with a solid team around him. 

Up front, New England has what should be one of the NFL’s four or five best offensive lines. The Patriots have returning starters in left tackle Isaiah Wynn, Center David Andrews, right guard Shaq Mason and Michael Onwenu, who is moving over from right tackle to left guard, a more natural spot for him after he mostly played tackle last season, and excelled. 

The Patriots let their best offensive lineman over the past few seasons, Joe Thuney, walk in free agency for a big deal with AFC rival Kansas City based off the play of Onwenu, who as a rookie, was the eighth-highest-graded tackle (84.3) in the NFL in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus

Wynn, Onwenu and Mason are incredible run blockers, in particular. The Patriots will go heavy with pulling guards and man-blocking as a power running team once more. 

The unit may be the best run-blocking group in the NFL, and should be in the top half of the league in pass-blocking, with the latter being helped out by the last-to-be-named starting offensive lineman: right tackle Trent Brown

New England kicked off the offseason by trading back for Brown after his two seasons with the Raiders. Brown was an anchoring left tackle for New England in their 2018 Super Bowl run, which helped the 6-foot-8, 380-pound gargantuan earn a contract as massive as his size. 

Size is the name of the game with this group of front, as each starter is over 300 pounds, and the entire unit averaging a league-high 330 pounds. This is one of the bigger offensive lines in the league, if not the biggest. 

Running behind them often will be Damien Harris, who should be the team’s clear leading rusher now that Super Bowl 53 hero Sony Michel is battling for RB1 duties with the Los Angeles Rams. 

The team felt comfortable with Harris leading the charge as a traditional, downhill-running back who makes up for any talent deficiencies with his tough, and smart, ball-carrying style. 

But it’s only a matter of time that rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, a fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma, and J.J. Taylor, entering Year 2 out of Arizona, become significant parts of the offense. 

Taylor should be first up as RB2 as a Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead hybrid who runs with a surprising amount of power for his size (5-foot-6, 185 pounds). 

Stevenson is a bigger back (6-foot, 246 pounds) that initially drew comparisons to LeGarrette Blount, only for many to find out that he is surprisingly agile as a make-you-miss runner who will excel in shotgun, inside-zone attempts, and is probably the second-best receiving back of the group behind James White. 

Speaking of White, the eight-year-pro, and longtime Patriots hero, stands the most to gain from the switch from Cam Newton to Mac Jones at quarterback. The Patriots can now turn to its quick-passing attack that historically feeds its pass-catching backs. That wasn’t really Cam’s game. So White, who had less receiving yards (375) and receiving scores (one) than he’s had since his rookie year (where he barely played) should have a resurgence on screens, as well as flat routes and option routes from the backfield on 3rd-and-5-and-under situations. 

The reimplementation of White as a factor in the offense is just one of a slew of factors that should help improve won of the most inefficient passing offenses of the 21st century last season. 

The team threw a league-worst 10 touchdown passes last season, and ranked 27th in passing in Football Outsiders‘ renowned DVOA stat. 

To help combat the issues, Belichick overhauled the tight end position by making headlines with not one, but two free agency splashes at the position in Jonnu Smith (4 years, $50 million, $31.25 million guaranteed) and Hunter Henry (3 years, $37.5 million, $25 million guaranteed). 

The offense will be led by rookie Mac Jones, but will revolve around the O-line, running game, and play-action passing to what should be two phenomenal chess pieces in Smith and Henry for McDaniels’ play-calling. 

12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) has long been a staple of New England offenses, but with limited personnel post-Gronk, the team has barely used the tight end position. The Patriots ran 12 personnel in just two-percent of offensive snaps (22 snaps) in 2020, according to Sharp Football Stats, a league low, and New England has only three touchdown receptions from tight ends in the last two seasons combined. Quite simply, they’ve ignored the position during games because they’ve had to, due to a lack of talent. Now, they likely will use more two-tight end sets than any team in the league. 

In Henry they have more of a traditional ‘Y’ tight end who is capable in-line as a blocker, and can spread out as a pass-catcher in looks such as a shotgun 3×1 setup, where the former Charger would project as a backside ‘X’ receiver a la Travis Kelce in Kansas City. 

Smith, a former Tennesee Titan, is more of a rare breed as a Swiss army knife-type player who can line up on the line, in the slot, as an H-back, fullback, or even running back. McDaniels will look to get him matched up on slower linebackers and smaller defensive backs in hopes of utilizing Smith’s incredible yards-after-the-catch ability, in which he has averaged 6.8 YAC for his career, by using a blend of power and finesse as a fully-aware, movement player with supreme ball carrier vision, athleticism and toughness for his position.

On the surface, it would seem lazy to compare the Henry-Smith combination to the great Gronk-Hernandez tandem from 2010 to 2012, but the archetypes seem similar. Sure, Henry isn’t as powerful as Gronk, and Smith, although a much better blocker than Hernandez, doesn’t quite have the body control of the former troubled Florida Gator product, who made defenders miss after the catch perhaps better than any tight end the game has ever seen.

But, there are similarities. The Patriots should be much better in the red zone with this tight end tandem. Smith, alone, had a career-high eight touchdowns in 2020. 

Additionally, look for each to run a myriad of routes out of play-action in I-Form and Singbleback two-tight end sets. In shotgun-spread, Henry will split out wide at times, and Smith should work heavily in the middle of the field, whether it be seam routes, or quick outs from the slot, or option-routes from the backfield. 

All of this leans on Jones’ ability to get these guys the ball, of course. The Alabama QB seems to thrive in both spread and under-center, play-action looks, and is accurate when throwing the football. A bigger cause for concern with the tight ends, is the health of Henry, who is coming into Week 1 possibly banged up, and has missed 24 games in four seasons. Henry has also never played a full season of games. 

If Henry does miss time, Devin Asiasi, a 2020 third-round pick, stands to fill his place as the Y-tight end, but it’s more likely that New England will then heavily mix in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) and the common 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) to make up for Henry’s absence. 

Not yet mentioned, Jakob Johnson is a traditional fullback who lacks the power of James Develin, but is a capable lead-blocker in I-formation, strong, and weak looks. Even with Smith and Henry healthy, Johnson will get his fair share of goal-line and short-yardage snaps. 

At wide receiver, the Patriots paid Nelson Agholor (2 years, $26 million, $15 million guaranteed) and Kendrick Bourne (3 years, $22.5 million) to come in and help a wide receiver core that struggled mightily against man coverage in 2020. Last season, the Patriots passing offense was 31st in EPA/play versus man coverage and single-high looks.

Agholor’s contract suggests New England views him as their top receiver. The former Philadelphia Eagle was considered a bit of a first-round bust as a slot receiver, even if he burned the Patriots for a nine-catch, 84-yard performance as an underneath, quick-pass option in Philadephia’s Super Bowl 52 win over New England. 

Playing on a prove-it, one-year deal for the Raiders last year, Agholor reinvented himself as a speedy deep-threat and X-receiver, setting a career-high in receiving yards (896) and tying his high in touchdowns (8), all while ranking second in the league in yards per reception (18.7).

Agholor will be tasked as New England’s deep-shot playmaker who also runs intermediate, in-breaking routes such as crossers, from both the perimeter and the slot. There, Agholor can utilize his speed to break away from man-coverage defenders, allowing the rest of the team’s pass-catchers, such as fellow newcomer Kendrick Bourne, to work underneath. 

Bourne, coming over from San Francisco, will likely begin the season as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver who comes on the field in 11 personnel and third-down situations. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound receiver is not known for his speed, but rather his quickness, route-running, strength/toughness and ability in the clutch on 3rd-and-7-or-so scenarios. He will be a threat underneath, in the red zone, on third down, and in crunch time. Expect Bourne to be one of the team’s more improved players in the scheme by season’s end. He has the potential, along with James White, to be a third-down security blanket pass catcher for the team’s rookie QB. 

Then, there’s Jakobi Meyers. The former North Carolina State QB-turned-receiver continues to defy expectations, blossoming into one of the NFL’s more competent and productive possession receivers. He ranked 10th out of 111 qualifying pass catchers in receiving yards per routes run (2.24) last year, and led the Patriots in receiving yards (776) despite not starting in the team’s first few games of 2020. 

He’ll often play in the slot in both shotgun-spread and 11-personnel looks, and as a Z-receiver/flanker option on the outside in 12 personnel. Basically, despite having a bit of a different skill set, Meyers is taking over Edelman’s role in the offense. Meyers is on an early-career, Edelman-like progression track within the offense, too. He should be a focal point in his third year in 2021.

After that, there’s 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry, who will miss the first few games of the season on injured reserve, and look to produce as a moving chess piece on the perimeter, in the slot, and in motion as an athlete-type player at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, who may surprise some in Year 3 after gaining confidence and experience.

Rounding out the group is Gunner Olszewski, an All-Pro punt returner and backup slot option, and newcomer Malcolm Perry, a former Navy quarterback (right up Belichick’s wheelhouse) converted to a slot receiver-running back in Miami under former Patriots coach Brian Flores. Expect him to be a gadget-type player at first  who attempts to learn the receiver position, a la Julian Edelman. Perry does have incredible quickness. 

The offense will likely get back to its roots under Mac Jones, with McDaniels reverting back to his mix-and-match approach with game plans as Jones becomes more comfortable leading the offense. The team’s chameleon-like approach was renowned in the 2010s, and was a major factor in their success under Tom Brady. 

Expect the Patriots to lean heavy on 12 personnel, power-running and play-action passing at first, before eventually leaning more on Jones’ ability to run an up-tempo, spread offense that famously uses versatile players (Jonnu Smith, James White, etc.) to exploit matchups in a timing-based, quick-passing scheme.

Week 1 Projected offense:

QB — Mac Jones

RB — Damien Harris

‘X’ WR — Nelson Agholor

‘Z’ WR/Slot — Jakobi Meyers

‘Y’/Traditional TE — Hunter Henry

‘F’/’Move’ TE — Jonnu Smith

LT — Isaiah Wynn

LG — Michael Onwenu

C — David Andrews 

RG — Shaq Mason 

RT — Trent Brown

Situational positions: 

FB — Jakob Johnson

WR3 (Underneath option, 3rd-down, etc.) — Kendrick Bourne

3rd-down back/receiving back — James White

RB2/Scatback — J.J. Taylor

RB3 — Rhamondre Stevenson 

‘Y’ TE/TE3 — Devin Asiasi

WR4 — N’Keal Harry

WR5/Slot WR — Gunner Olszewski 

‘Gadget’/Slot WR — Malcolm Perry

Swing Tackle — Yodney Cajuste/Justin Herron 

* * * * * * *

For all the talk of the ineffective passing offense from last year, the Patriots defense stumbled down the ladder of the league’s top-ranked defenses, into a unit that resembled nothing of its staunch 2019 form. 

The team went from first in DVOA in total defense in 2019 to 26th last season, which included a ranking of dead-last in run defense DVOA. Those are catastrophic numbers for a Belichick-led defense. 

The unit struggled mightily last year after losing some of its key players both to free agency (Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton) and opt-outs (Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung), and missing Stephon Gilmore, New England’s current best player, for five games due to injury. 

The Patriots’ Spending spree in free agency included an initial wave of players on defense with Van Noy returning from Miami on a two-year, $13.2 million deal. The team also signed cornerback/safety-hybrid Jalen Mills (4 years, $24 million) and plucked nose tackle Davon Godchaux (2 years, $16 million) and defensive end Henry Anderson (2 years, $7 million) from AFC East rivals. 

But their biggest offseason addition was the the signing of former Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matt Judon to a four-year, $56 million deal ($32 million guaranteed). Judon already looked the part in the preseason as a menacing edge setter. 

In addition to finishing last in run defense DVOA last year, the team was also ranked last in off-tackle yards per attempt, showcasing just how bad they were in setting the edge in the run game. Chase Winovich is one of the league’s better edge rushers, but coupled with the likes of John Simon, Shilique Calhoun and Tashawn Bower last year, the team was horrendous in stopping outside runs.

Adding Judon and re-adding Van Noy to set the edge in the run game, along with the additions of Godchaux and Anderson (3rd among interior lineman with a 43 percent run-stop-win rate in 2020) to plug up the interior will transform this front seven, and give the Patriots what they want: a tough, deep depth chart of defensive lineman and linebackers for their 3-4-style (mostly) defense that they’ve shifted too since 2019. 

 

Patriots defense -- 2020 trends
The New England Patriots have mostly moved to a 3-4 style of defense since 2019, employing a “base” Nickel 2-4-5, often with three safeties, as their most-used formation.

Expect the Patriots to run a boatload of 2-4-5 with Godchaux (6-foot-3, 311 pounds) and the returning Lawrence Guy (6-foot-4, 315 pounds) up front as a versatile lineman who can play both 4-3 defensive tackle an 3-4-style defensive end. Each of these men are excellent two-gapping lineman for this type of defense. The Patriots struggled last year with an endless supply of practice-squad type players and cast-offs rotating around Guy up front, which hurt the defense almost as much their deficiencies on the edge. 

This year on the edge, the aforementioned Matt Judon is probably New England’s best football player on the roster with Gilmore sidelined. He’s the strong-side, stand-up EDGE defender that is perfect for this scheme. The “Elephant” role, is what former Patriot Willie McGinest calls this role, according to CLNS Media‘s Evan Lazar

Matthew Judon -- Training Camp
Matthew Judon may be the Patriots’ best player in 2021. New England was in dire need of a player of his caliber as an EDGE defender. (Screenshot: New England Patriots)

Judon can use his 6-foot-3, 275-pound frame, athleticism and aggressiveness to stop the run, rush the passer and even play a bit of shallow pass coverage. 

Van Noy returns on the other side as the opposite EDGE on early downs, with the possibility to move inside as well. 

At off-ball linebacker, the return of Dont’a Hightower is one of the more under-the-radar, massively important stories of the entire league. The 10-year-pro is a leader on the defense, and New England missed his football wit, swagger and ferociousness up front. 

Depending on the scheme, the Patriots will have Ja’Whaun Bentley, who struggled in Hightower’s role last year, returning to his perfect fit as a “thumper” inside linebacker in 3-4 looks. 

New England also loves to employ three safeties, and the Patrick Chung role as a box safety/linebacker hybrid will certainly be utilized in some 2-4-5 looks. Last year, Kyle Dugger played mostly as a strong safety, and Adrian Phillips as a linebacker. This season, there’s a chance their roles switch, as Dugger’s tackling ability and sideline-to-sideline speed fit better in the box, with Phillips impressing many in pass coverage, specifically man coverage on tight ends, in training camp. Although, Phillips was tough up front tackling ball carriers in 2020, even with his smaller frame for the box. But the lack of run-stuffers up front meant more lineman coming downhill and blowing Phillips out of the play. That shouldn’t happen this season. 

Rounding out the safeties is Devin McCourty, who enters his 12th season at age 34 as a dependable free safety on early downs, and Cover 1 robber defender to stop crossers (think: yellow zone in Madden) on later downs. The “Duron Harmon” role as the team’s deep safety on clear passing downs (such as 3rd-and-long) is up for grabs, with slot cornerback Jonathan Jones looking like a frontrunner. 

The Patriots loved to run a heavy amount of man coverage, with Cover 1 being their speciality. Last year, Cover 1 and Cover 3 were once again their main coverage tendencies, but the split between man coverage and zone was roughly 51 percent to 49 percent last season, according to my film review and charting.

The increase in zone coverage from the previous season probably had a lot to do with the absence of No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore for five games. 

The Patriots are vulnerable without Stephon Gilmore, who even at age 31 is arguably the best man-coverage cornerback in football on the perimeter. The 2019 Defensive Player of the Year is attempting to return from a torn quad, and will miss at least six weeks since he’s on the PUP (Physically unable to perform) list. Gilmore is also looking for a new contract, as he’s playing on just a $7 million base salary in 2021, much lower than top-of-the-market pay for his position. So his situation is murky, making New England’s cornerback situation a possible Achilles heel on an otherwise superb-looking defense. 

With Gilmore out, J.C. Jackson, who is playing on a contract year (he’s playing in 2021 on a cheap restricted free agent tender this season), moves up to No. 1 cornerback, a position in which he struggled some last year, particularly against Bills All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs. 

Jackson is possibly the best No. 2 cornerback in football, but stands to improve as a No. 1 option. After gaining some experience in the role last year, expect him to be even better in 2021. He’s one of the best deep-ball defenders in the game on the outside. 

Jalen Mills, a struggling cornerback-turned-competent-safety with the Eagles is the type of versatile defensive player that the Patriots covet, but it’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the No. 2 cornerback on the outside. He best slots in as competition for Jonathan Jones as a slot or nickel-type who plays some safety.

The Patriots should also get a lot out their non-starters, as they look for their best pairings. 

In the secondary, Joejuan Williams and newcomer Shaun Wade, Baltimore’s fifth-round pick this past spring out of Ohio State who was once considered a first-round pick prospect, are gangly cornerbacks with safety potential who will get their fare share of playing time with Gilmore out. 

At linebacker, Harvey Langi returns to the Patriots to provide depth after a three-year-stint with the rival New York Jets that saw him in a starting role at times in 2020. 

On the defensive line, there’s Carl Davis as depth for Godchaux at nose tackle after earning his spot as the lone midseason addition who could stop the run last year. Then there’s newcomer Henry Anderson and the returning Deatrich Wise Jr., a Belichick favorite, will battle it out for snaps alongside Guy and Godchaux as a 3-4 defensive end in base 3-4 looks. Wise Jr. is more of a 4-3-style player but has molded his game over the past two years to fit the 3-4, and is a great locker room presence. 

Wise Jr. will also see time as an interior rusher in clear passing situations in the Patriots’ Big Dime 2-3-6 setup, a go-to look for them on third down. 

Next to him will be rookie Christian Barmore. New England moved up to get the 6-foot-4, 310-pound Alabama defensive tackle in the second round after he fell out of his projected spot as a back-half-of-the-first-round prospect. Barmore may one day be a starter in 3-4 and 2-4-5 looks on early downs, but he’ll begin his career in the Adam Butler role as perhaps the Patriots’ best interior rusher. He should also be the lone hand-in-the-dirt lineman in Big Dime 1-4-6 looks.

Rounding out the insanely-deep EDGE position is third-round pick Ronnie Perkins, who should get a bit of a redshirt year in a learning role, and the aforementioned Chase Winovich, who will return to his pass-rush specialty position as a third-down rusher and occasional base player.

And last but not least, there’s Josh Uche, one of the team’s most important players this season, along with Dugger at safety, considering the second-year “leap” each player is projected to take. 

Josh Uche -- Training Camp
Josh Uche is projected to have a breakout second season, and perhaps may overtake Kyle Van Noy as a starting stand-up EDGE opposite Matthew Judon in base defense looks later in the season. (Screenshot: Josh Uche Instagram)

Uche has the speed and athleticism to take over the 2019 Jamie Collins role as both an early-down EDGE defender and off-ball linebacker in passing situations who often blitzes up the middle. But Uche’s raw talent at rushing the passer, with his speed, quickness and ability to bend past offensive tackles make him a fit as a full-time EDGE, where he may be able to kick Van Noy to the inside. After all, Dont’a Hightower called Uche “little Judon” for his talent and overall ability as a stand-up EDGE defender. 

Uche, a 2019 second-round pick, will certainly play often, and the possibilities of mixing and matching these pass-rushing edge rushers on clear passing downs are endless. 

Could you imagine a 1-4-6 look on a 3rd-and-10 with Barmore on the line, and four out of five of a group including Judon, Hightower, Van Noy, Winovich and Uche all along the line as stand-up rushers? That’s a quarterback’s worst nightmare. 

The Patriots have the ability to go with a bulkier 3-4, a 2-4-5 with 3-4 principles (their usual base), or a Big Dime look (2-3-6, 1-4-6) as their main defense for the majority of a game, depending on the opponent. 

They can run three safety-looks, and can also use run-stuffing personnel, pass-rushing personnel and more, all with the perfect amount of player overlap and cycling of players with different skill sets. 

This unit has the ability to be a top-five group in both points allowed and efficiency metrics (DVOA, etc.).

Week 1 Projected defense:

Interior/Nose Tackle — Davon Godchaux

Interior— Lawrence Guy

EDGE — Matt Judon

EDGE — Kyle Van Noy

LB — Dont’a Hightower

Box safety/LB— Kyle Dugger

S (‘Big’ Nickel/Dime/three-safety packages) — Adrian Phillips

CB1 — J.C. Jackson

CB2 — Jalen Mills 

Slot CB — Jonathan Jones

S — Devin McCourty

Situational positions:

Interior/3-4 DE — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

Interior/3-4 DE  — Henry Anderson

3-4 Nose Tackle — Carl Davis

Interior pass rusher (Big Dime 2-3-6/1-4-6) — Christian Barmore

3-4 ILB — Ja’Whaun Bentley

EDGE/LB/3rd-down pass rusher — Josh Uche 

EDGE/3rd-down pass rusher — Chase Winovich

EDGE — Ronnie Perkins

CB1 (PUP, out six weeks) — Stephon Gilmore

CB4 (perimeter)/slot — Shaun Wade

CB5/S (‘Big’ TE, ‘X’ WR matchup CB) — Joejuan Williams

* * * * * * *

Projected record: 11-6 (AFC’s No. 6 seed)

In an attempt to reboot the team after a 7-9 transition season in a post-Tom Brady world, during a pandemic, Bill Belichick hurled an NFL-record $159.6 million of guaranteed money in free agency to attempt to fix his team on both sides of the ball. 

Some criticized the moves, calling some of the contracts “overpays,” but the moves were strategic, as the Patriots were one of just a couple teams with the available cap space in 2020 after the salary cap shrunk in an attempt to make up for lost revenue from a lack of fan attendance during last season. 

The salary cap will increase, swiftly and dramatically, I might add, which will make many of these deals closer to market value, or even below the threshold, which means the Patriots will have additional cap space after all, to build a team around rookie Mac Jones. 

Yes, it’s Jones who Belichick plucked from good friend Nick Saban’s team in Alabama, in the first round of the draft. It’s Jones, who Belichick has deemed worthy as Brady’s official successor, perhaps thanks to valuable insider info from Saban. 

It’s hard to believe, but it’s been 20 years since the tragic events of September 11, 2001. That season, it was fitting that the New England Patriots banded together as a team, built off a solid defense, top-tier play in the trenches (OL, DL), a tough power-running game, and a young quarterback leading the offense as a clutch, unafraid leader with much to learn. And let’s not forget, great coaching. 

The 2021 Patriots are a similar breed, perhaps not as sturdy in the secondary without Stephon Gilmore, but just as deep in the front seven, with a better offensive line, and perhaps, better offensive weapons, with two tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith ready to become a focal point of the offense. 

Of course, times have changed, as the game is equipped with new rules today that were not in place in 2001. High-flying offenses and great quarterback play are more important than ever. 

So even with all of this, the comparisons to the 2001 Patriots and all, this team is not quite Super Bowl-ready, but they will surprise many, challenging the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East for all 18 weeks of the regular season, before earning a wild-card berth, and winning the franchise’s first playoff game since Super Bowl 53, three seasons ago. (I have them losing in the Divisional round.) 

There was a clear opposing of views between Brady and Belichick when it came to team-building philosophies. That was perhaps the main reason for Brady’s split to Tampa Bay during his final years. Brady has his high-flying offense, and now, Belichick’s vision for a more complete team has come to fruition.    

Patriots vs Steelers - Nickel 2-4-5

New England Patriots Defense: 2019 Film Review + 2020 Projections

The New England Patriots spent most of the 2019 season leaning on their defense, which posted league-best numbers in points per game allowed (14.1) and yards per game allowed (275.9).

With Tom Brady now in Tampa Bay, the 2020 team could be even more reliant on it’s defense.

Bill Belichick’s defensive prowess and long-standing expertise in the sport of pro football has the Patriots at the forefront of defensive ingenuity and versatile-driven schemes. The formations, personnel and strategy used by New England in 2019 were no different.

Here is a breakdown of the Patriots’ defensive game plan, and oft-used formations for each of their 17 games last season, with a separate section detailing 2020 projections for rookies and additional newcomers in this piece’s bookend.

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WEEK 1 (VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS)

          

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5

DT — Lawrence Guy 

DT — Michael Bennett 

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

EDGE (stand-up) — Shilique Calhoun 

LB — Dont’a Hightower 

LB — Jamie Collins

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty 

FS — Devin McCourty 

SS — Patrick Chung

 

Key inactives/injuries: Kyle Van Noy, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: Patriots used six or more defensive backs on roughly 42 percent of snaps as the Steelers had four different wide receivers play over 52 percent of snaps. New England used three safeties on about 44 percent of snaps. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-The Patriots began with their Nickel 2-4-5 defense above for the team’s first six snaps, before adding Duron Harmon, Chase Winovich and Adam Butler to the mix for a Big Dime 1-4-6 set. 

 

-With Kyle Van Noy out, EDGE Shilique Calhoun was on the field for 82 percent of the Patriots’ defensive snaps, a season high for him. 

 

-Jamie Collins predominantly was used as an off-ball linebacker next to Hightower, but was secondarily used on the EDGE. At times, Collins was used as a stand-up edge rusher, and Patrick Chung took his spot as a linebacker next to Hightower in what could be described as a 3-4 defense or Big Nickel look. 

 

-Speaking of Chung, Jonathan Jones played more snaps (79 percent) than Chung (70 percent) as the latter received one of his lighter workloads of the season. Harmon (60 percent of snaps) was mostly used as a deep safety, which put Devin McCourty in the box for a good deal of snaps. 

 

-Despite being an active member on gameday, Elandon Roberts played zero defensive snaps. Semi-regularly, Ja’Whaun Bentley (37 percent of snaps) played alongside Hightower in the “thumper” inside linebacker role.

 

WEEK 2 (AT MIAMI DOLPHINS)

           

Most common formation: Big Dime 2-3-6 

DT — Adam Butler

DT — Michael Bennett

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB/EDGE — Dont’a Hightower 

LB — Jamie Collins

SS/LB — Terrence Brooks/Patrick Chung

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty 

S — Devin McCourty 

S — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Deatrich Wise Jr., Joejuan Williams

 

Interesting wrinkle: The Patriots ran some variation of their Big Dime defense (1-4-6, 2-3-6) with safeties about 48 percent of time. Some of the 2-3-6 looks were essentially their Nickel 2-4-5 scheme with Terrence Brooks or Patrick Chung playing in the box as an inside linebacker. They also used just one or two defensive lineman (hand in the dirt) on roughly 77 percent of snaps. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-New England began the game predominantly with different 3-4 looks, which varied from a traditional 3-4 with three down lineman all with their hand in the dirt, to Chase Winovich subbing in as a stand-up 3-4 defensive end on the line, essentially giving Bill Belichick three EDGE rushers. Patrick Chung also came up in the box with the linebackers for a good chunk of the early 3-4 snaps. 

 

-As mentioned above, the Patriots often used Brooks in the box as a linebacker in Big Dime 2-3-6 formations. This was one of just four games on the year that saw Brooks play at least 48 percent of defensive snaps. 

 

-Hightower spent some time as an EDGE defender in these Big Dime looks. 

 

-New England’s seemingly base (up to this point) Nickel 2-4-5 defense with three cornerbacks from Week 1 was hardly used until garbage time, ironically. 

 

-Lawrence Guy played a season-low 22 percent of defensive snaps as Danny Shelton, Byron Cowart and Michael Bennett rotated in along the line in different fronts. 

 

WEEK 3 (VS NEW YORK JETS)

             

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5 (“little” 3-4 hybrid)

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

SS/LB — Patrick Chung

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty/J.C. Jackson 

FS — Devin McCourty 

 

Key inactives/injuries: Shilique Calhoun

 

Interesting wrinkle: Sort of like last week’s usage of Chase Winovich as some sort of stand-up 3-4 defensive end, the Patriots used John Simon in a stand-up spot on the line early, in what looked like Nickel 2-4-5 personnel with Jamie Collins moving all along the front seven (but mostly on the edge outside Simon), and Patrick Chung playing up in the box as a pseudo-linebacker. Really, this look can be described as a makeshift 3-4 in nickel personnel. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-When New England ran a prototypical 3-4 front, Shelton played as the nose tackle with Guy and Adam Butler as 3-4 defensive ends. One of the three usually came off for John Simon in the Nickel 2-4-5 front that was disguised as sa 3-4 (explained above). 

 

– Jamie Collins was used much more as an EDGE defender in both the Patriots’ Nickel 2-4-5/makeshift 3-4 set and traditional 3-4 look this week. Elandon Roberts was mostly used as an off-ball, ‘thumper” linebacker in New England’s traditional 3-4 set.

 

-For the second week in a row, Jonathan Jones seemingly played a couple snaps as a safety in two-deep coverage. Jones, a slot cornerback, prominently played safety for most of Super Bowl 53. Duron Harmon played less than last week as New England used much fewer three-safety packages. 

 

-Perhaps to take advantage of inexperienced Jets QB Luke Falk, Belichick implemented his “amoeba” defense, featuring all stand-up rushers on the line, a few times this week. 

 

WEEK 4 (AT BUFFALO BILLS)

         

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5 (“little” 3-4 hybrid)

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Danny Shelton/Adam Butler

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Ja’Whaun Bentley

SS/LB — Patrick Chung

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty

FS — Devin McCourty 

 

Key inactives/injuries: Dont’a Hightower, Byron Cowart, Joejuan Williams 

 

Interesting wrinkle: With Hightower out, Collins and Van Noy played every snap on defense, while Ja’Whaun Bentley was primarily used in Hightower’s role in New England’s Nickel 2-4-5, while Elandon Roberts joined Bentley as an inside linebacker in the Patriots’ traditional 3-4 look. Collins moved all along the front seven, playing a good deal of snaps in the slot and as an of-ball linebacker in coverage. Collins was in coverage much more than prior weeks.

 

Additional analysis: 

-New England stuck with their Nickel 2-4-5 look for much of the game, bouncing back and forth between their Week 1, base look with that personnel, and the “little” 3-4 wrinkle from Week 3. When Matt Barkley entered the game late for Josh Allen, the Patriots mostly used a Big Dime personnel in a 2-3-6 front to finish a close game.

 

-The Patriots opted to use single-high coverage with Devin McCourty deep for a good deal of their Nickel 2-4-5/”little” 3-4 looks, even when Josh Allen was operating under a shotgun spread offense in clear passing situations. When they went two-deep with the common personnel listed above, Jonathan Jones moved back a few times to play safety, while Chung remained in the box. On some of these two-deep looks, Jones was lined up over the slot receiver, and came up after the snap, anyhow. 

 

-Bill Belichick and company introduced a four-safety package in their Quarter 1-3-7 front in the third quarter. One one play, all four were in the box, then Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung played shallow middle zones, while Terrence Brooks played man coverage, and Duron Harmon sprinted back to play the deep half of the field.

 

WEEK 5 (AT WASHINGTON)

     

Most common formation: Dime (4 CBs)

DT — Adam Butler

DT — Lawrence Guy/Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — Dont’a Hightower 

LB — Jamie Collins

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty

CB — J.C. Jackson

S — Devin McCourty 

S — Duorn Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Patrick Chung, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: With Patrick Chung out, the Patriots leaned heavily on traditional Dime personnel — a formation employing four cornerbacks — for much of the game. Each of New England top four cornerbacks (Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Jones, Jackson) played at least 75 percent of snaps, and rookie cornerback Joejuan Williams played his first defensive snaps (8) of the season late in garbage time. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-On a few plays, Bill Belichick used his Nickel 2-4-5 personnel in yet a different way. Collins, Simon and Van Noy were all along the EDGE on the line of scrimmage, while Dont’a Hightower was the only off-ball linebacker, and Devin McCourty was utilized as a box safety. These plays often had a two-deep coverage with Duron Harmon and Jonathan Jones as safeties, as McCourty took Chung’s role in the box. 

 

-New England ran with their four-cornerback Dime formation for most of the second half, as Washington tried to play catch-up, with each of their top four wide receivers logging at least 54 percent of offensive snaps throughout the game. 

 

-Hightower was used as an EDGE defender on a good deal of snaps in Dime personnel, opposite Van Noy, with Collins as the off-ball linebacker. John Simon was held to under 20 percent of snaps, a season-low by far for him. 

 

-Adam Butler, Danny Shelton, Lawrencee Guy and Deatrich Wise Jr. logged more snaps along the defensive line than Michael Bennett, who was used mostly late in the game in a pass-rushing role. 

 

WEEK 6 (VS NEW YORK GIANTS)

         

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Danny Shelton/Adam Butler

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower/Ja’Whaun Bentley

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty

SS — Devin McCourty 

FS — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Byron Cowart, Joejuan Williams

 

Interesting wrinkle: The Patriots began the game with mostly a Nickel 2-4-5 look with Patrick Chung returning to the fold after missing the previous week, but Chung played just eight snaps before missing the rest of this game with an injury. From then on out, New England switched between a Nickel 2-4-5 or three-safety package in the form of Big Nickel or Big Dime personnel. New England used a three-safety package on roughly 42 percent of defensive snaps.

 

Additional analysis: 

-With Chung out for most of the game, Devin McCourty spent a lot of time in the box both in Nickel 2-4-5 looks and Big Nickel or Big Dime looks. In the three-safety packages, both Devin McCourty and Brooks were often in the box together, which made for an intimidating, crowded line of scrimmage for rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. 

 

-In New England’s traditional three-cornerback Nickel 2-4-5, Dont’a Hightower was mostly on the field, playing off-ball linebacker. Hightower often came off the field for Big Dime situations, and sometimes Big Nickel looks, mostly for either Terrence Brooks, who played roughly 48 percent of defensive snaps in the box as a pseudo-linebacker, or Ja’Whaun Bentley (36 percent of defensive snaps), who also received a healthy amount of snaps at linebacker. 

 

-J.C. Jackson played roughly 42 percent of defensive snaps, mostly coming on the field with Terrence Brooks in Big Dime personnel, but sometimes subbing in for Jason McCourty as the Patriots’ second boundary cornerback opposite Stephon Gilmore. 

 

WEEK 7 (AT NEW YORK JETS)

     

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon/Chase Winovich

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty/J.C. Jackson

S — Devin McCourty 

S — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Patrick Chung, Michael Bennett

 

Interesting wrinkle: So far this season, this was Belichick and the New England defense at its most versatile, as the team never used one formation for more than roughly 27 percent of defensive snaps. Among the most used formations were: Nickel 2-4-5, Nickel 3-3-5, Big Dime, Dime (4 CB) and a 3-4 defense. The Patriots had seven defensive backs each playing roughly 57 percent of defensive snaps or more, as the team subbed members of the secondary in and out.

 

Additional analysis: 

-New England went to a Nickel 3-3-5 front on 11 snaps, after using the formation on just nine snaps in the previous six games. Terrence Brooks was used as the strong safety that often crept up into the box pre-snap on these looks. Danny Shelton was often the nose tackle and Dont’a Hightower was the lone, off-ball middle linebacker, but sometimes moved to the EDGE/outside linebacker spot in that front, with Ja’Whaun Bentley moving into the middle linebacker role.

 

-John Simon and rookie Chase Winovich each played on about a third of the team’s defensive snaps, showcasing the uptick in Winovich’s playing time as the season progressed. 

 

-New England finished the fourth quarter in mostly a 2-3-6 Dime formation with four cornerbacks, with Devin McCourty and Stephon Gilmore receiving some rest in garbage time in favor of rookie Joejuan Williams, and Terrence Brooks. The latter mostly played in the box, and often played man coverage on Le’Veon Bell or other Jets running backs coming out of the backfield. 

 

WEEK 8 (VS CLEVELAND BROWNS)

           

Most common formation: Big Dime/Big Nickel 

DT — Lawrence Guy/Danny Shelton/Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon/Chase Winovich/Shilique Calhoun

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB/EDGE — Dont’a Hightower

LB — Jamie Collins

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty/J.C. Jackson

SS — Patrick Chung

S — Devin McCourty 

FS — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Joejuan Williams, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: Just five players played more than 70 percent of snaps — Devin McCourty, Gilmore, Collins, Van Noy, Chung — as the line for defensive starters was blurred. The Browns attempted to play catch up in the second half, and New England mostly ran some variation of Big Dime, Big Nickel, or a four-safety Quarter package down the stretch. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-New England began the game mostly playing their Nickel 2-4-5 look, and if not that, their 3-4 formation. The second half was a lot different. 

 

-Jamie Collins spent many snaps as an off-ball linebacker either in the box, or out wide in man coverage on a tight end or fullback when the Browns went with spread formations. 

 

– The Patriots ran with at least three safeties for most of the second half, showcasing Duron Harmon’s importance to their defense when up against a talented pass-catching group. 

 

-Late in the game, the Patriots often employed Quarter personnel out of a 2-2-7 or 1-3-7 formation with four safeties. Duron Harmon was usually the deep safety in these looks, with Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Terrence Brooks all in the box. Brooks played sparingly, and only played late in the game. 

 

WEEK 9 (AT BALTIMORE RAVENS)

       

Most common formation: Big Nickel (2-4-5)

DT — Lawrence Guy 

DT — Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Jason McCourty/J.C. Jackson 

SS/LB — Patrick Chung/Terrence Brooks

S — Devin McCourty

S — Duron Harmon/Jonathan Jones

 

Key inactives/injuries: Joejuan Williams

 

Interesting wrinkle: New England bounced around between a Big Nickel 2-4-5, traditional Nickel 2-4-5 and a 3-4 defense in an attempt to corral Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. 

 

Additional analysis: 

– When New England ran a Nickel 2-4-5 front, Collins was utilized as an off-ball linebacker. But when the Patriots went with a 3-4 look, Elandon Roberts or Ja’Whaun Bentley took his spot as an inside linebacker, and Collins moved to the EDGE spot, usually putting John Simon on the sideline. Adam Butler played as 3-4 defensive end and as an interior rusher in Dime formations. 

 

-Jonathan Jones played a season low 42 percent of defensive snaps, and when he was on the field, he was often used as a safety in two-deep looks. Devin McCourty played heavily in the box for much of the game, but still moved back to deep safety at times. Patrick Chung and Terrance Brooks played primarily in the box, often as a pseudo-linebacker. 

 

-At times, the Patriots used a 3-5 formation up front, featuring five linebackers, in an attempt to slow down the unique Ravens rushing attack. Van Noy and Collins were used as EDGE defenders in this front, with Hightower, Roberts and Bentley used as off-ball LBs.

 

WEEK 11 (AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES)

       

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5/Big Nickel (2-4-5)

DT — Lawrence Guy 

DT — Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB– Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson 

DB (slot CB or box safety) — Jonathan Jones/Terrence Brooks

S — Devin McCourty

S — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Patrick Chung, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: The Eagles used more 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) than any other team last season, and their tight end duo of Zach Ertz (89 percent of offensive snaps) and Dallas Goedert (81 percent of offensive snaps) were often used in this matchup. Without Patrick Chung, the Patriots still employed three safeties on 48 percent of defensive snaps. Belichick evenly mixed between a traditional Nickel 2-4-5 personnel, Big Nickel (2-4-5) and a Big Dime look (1-4-6). 

 

Additional analysis: 

-When the Eagles featured 12 personnel in situations that had a higher chance of being a pass play, New England often went to their Big Nickel 2-4-5 formation with Duron Harmon playing deep safety, Devin McCourty manning up on Goedert, and Terrence Brooks playing man coverage on Ertz. Gilmore was also used in man coverage on Ertz on third-down passing situations. 

 

-When New England was not in their Nickel 2-4-5 formation, they were in a Dime 1-4-6 look, where Adam Butler replaced Guy and Shelton along the defensive line for pass rush help. 

 

-As has often been the case this season, Collins was mostly used as an off-ball linebacker in Nickel 2-4-5 looks, and as an EDGE defender in 3-4 personnel. New England ran a 3-4 defense on roughly 11 percent of defensive snaps versus the Eagles. 

 

-In the game’s final minutes, leading 17-10, New England mostly went with Dime personnel with four cornerbacks. 

 

WEEK 12 (VS DALLAS COWBOYS)

         

Most common formation: Big Nickel 2-4-5 (“little” 3-4 hybrid)

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

SS/LB — Patrick Chung

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson 

S — Devin McCourty 

FS — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Jason McCourty

 

Interesting wrinkle: Like their Week 3 game plan versus the Jets, the Patriots leaned on a makeshift 3-4 derived out of Nickel 2-4-5 personnel for much of the game. The only difference is the Patriots ran their ‘Big Nickel’ lineup for most of this game, employing three safeties. Harmon primarily played deep safety, Chung played in the box as an auxiliary linebacker, and McCourty moved around the formation at different variations of safety, who sometimes played man coverage. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-Belichick and company often employed Big Nickel 3-3-5 personnel in this game, but on every one of those snaps, the formation was essentially “little” 3-4 with Chung as an off-ball, inside linebacker, and Devin McCourty and Harmon as safeties. 

 

-With Jason McCourty out, and the Patriots’ high usage of three-safety packages, J.C. Jackson played significantly more snaps than Jonathan Jones, who was the 12th-most used defensive player versus Dallas, a rarity for the usually well-played starter. Joejuan Williams played nine snaps at cornerback. 

 

-On a couple of snaps in the final minute, the Patriots employed their amoeba defense with zero down-lineman, in an attempt to confuse and intimidate Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, as Dallas was trailing 13-9 late, and facing a 3rd-and-11 and subsequent 4th-and-long. 

 

WEEK 13 (AT HOUSTON TEXANS)

       

Most common formation: Nickel 2-4-5/Big Nickel 2-4-5 (“little” 3-4 hybrid)

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Danny Shelton

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

SS/LB — Patrick Chung

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson 

DB (slot CB or FS) — Jonathan Jones/Duron Harmon

S — Devin McCourty 

 

Key inactives/injuries: Jason McCourty, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: For their fourth straight game, the Patriots spent a good deal of time in their Nickel 2-4-5 base and Big Nickel version of that formation, with a third safety coming in to spell slot cornerback Jonathan Jones. When in their Big Nickel set, New England often turned their personnel into a makeshift 3-4 look with Chung at linebacker, a familiar scheme for them this season. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-With Jason McCourty missing again, J.C. Jackson stepped into a full-time starting role once more, playing every defensive snap alongside Devin McCourty and Gilmore. Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy were somewhat limited due to an illness, which lessened their snap count, allowing Ja’Whaun Bentley and Chase Winovich to receive an uptick in playing time. 

 

-Gilmore played coverage on Texans superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for roughly 79 percent of his defensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus

 

-While mostly in some sort of a Nickel 2-4-5 look, Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton received much more playing time than Adam Butler, who is more of a pass rusher than run stuffer. 

 

-Like they have many times during the season, the Patriots utilized a four-safety package — Devin McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Terrence Brooks — in their Quarter 1-3-7 looks. 

 

WEEK 14 (VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS)

         

Most common formation: Big Dime 2-3-6 

DT — Lawrence Guy

DT — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB/EDGE — Dont’a Hightower 

SS/LB — Patrick Chung

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson

S — Devin McCourty 

FS — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Joejuan Williams, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: The Chiefs went with 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) for most of the game, and the Patriots combatted that by using their Big Dime personnel 63 percent of the time, with their Big Dime 2-3-6 formation (43 percent of defensive snaps) being their most used. Their Big Dime 1-4-6 look (20 percent of defensive snaps) was their second-most used formation. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-There was an uptick in four-safety packages early on as the Patriots often went with McCourty (Devin), Chung, Harmon and Terrence Brooks in a four-safety, Big Dime 2-3-6 look, which they hadn’t really dabbled in up to this point. They went to their four-safety packages later in a Quarter 1-3-7 look. 

 

-The Patriots ran man coverage roughly 59 percent of the time and zone coverage 41 percent of the time. Their most common coverage was Cover 1, which they ran 48 percent of the time on Chiefs passing plays. Here, Harmon was often featured as the deep safety and Devin McCourty was used as a “rat” or “robber” playing zone in the middle of the field to stop crossing routes. Their second-most common coverage was a quarters, or Cover 4 scheme, which they used on 28 percent of Kansas City’s designed passing plays. 

 

-As for man coverage duties — Gilmore mostly covered Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins, Jackson predominantly covered wide receiver DeMarcus Robinson, Jones covered Hill (with help often over top) and Chung or Devin McCourty often covered Kelce. J.C. Jackson also spent some snaps covering Kelce, which is a duty he partly dabbled in during the 2018 AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. Jason McCourty (four snaps) was eased back in, but was on the field to cover Robinson, replacing Jackson, on a few redzone snaps. 

 

-Deatrich Wise received his second-most playing time on the season, as he appeared next to Guy along the defensive line for many of the Big Dime 2-3-6 looks. Adam Butler was utilized as the lone defensive lineman for most of the Big Dime 1-4-6 looks. Danny Shelton was also in the mix on two and three-man lines. 

 

-The Patriots ran their “amoeba” defense with a cluttered mix of defenders at the line of scrimmage — but no down lineman — on 4 different defensive snaps, their highest usage of this look on the season.

WEEK 15 (AT CINCINNATI BENGALS)

       

Most common formation: 3-4

NT — Danny Shelton

DE — Lawrence Guy

DE — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower 

LB — Elandon Roberts/Ja’Whaun Bentley 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson

SS — Patrick Chung

FS — Devin McCourty 

 

Key inactives/injuries: Jason McCourty, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: The Patriots utilized their traditional 3-4 defense on a season-high 55 percent of defensive snaps. Deatrich Wise Jr., who is more of a 4-3 defensive end fit, played a season-high 70 percent of snaps. Elandon Roberts and Ja’Whaun Bentley shared the “thumper” inside linebacker role. When the Patriots weren’t running their traditional 3-4 defense, they were often utilizing their “little” 3-4 look. This was a 3-4 heavy game. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-The Patriots utilized their traditional Nickel 2-4-5 personnel on just seven defensive snaps, a season-low for them thus far. Because of that, Jonathan Jones (45 percent of defensive snaps) and John Simon (38 percent of snaps) played far less than usual. And a good deal of Jones’ snaps came with him as a safety, as opposed to his normal position of slot cornerback. 

 

-The Patriots ran a 4-3 defense on one defensive snap, bringing their total usage of the often-used formation by other teams to just three total this season for them. The defensive ends were Guy and Wise, and the defensive tackles were Butler and Shelton. The linebackers were Simon, Van Noy and Roberts (middle). 

 

-In the fourth quarter, Terrence Brooks played over Patrick Chung on pseudo-linebacker snaps in Big Nickel 2-4-5 and Big Nickel 3-3-5 looks that were virtually “little” 3-4 formations. Chung was in for most Big Dime 1-4-6 formations late in the game. 

 

WEEK 16 (VS BUFFALO BILLS)

       

Most common formation: Big Dime (2-3-6 or 1-4-6)

DT — Adam Butler

DT or EDGE — Lawrence Guy/John Simon

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

SS/LB — Patrick Chung

CB (slot) — J.C. Jackson 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — Joejuan Williams 

S — Devin McCourty 

DB (FS or CB) — Duron Harmon/Terrence Brooks

 

Key inactives/injuries: Jonathan Jones, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: Seven Patriots defenders played 91 percent of defensive snaps or more (three played every snap) as the Patriots heavily relied on their core players in a game they needed to clinch the AFC East. New England ran with their Big Nickel 2-4-5 formation 33 percent of the time, and utilized some form of their Big Dime looks on roughly 44 percent of defensive snaps. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-With Jonathan Jones out, and Jason McCourty (four snaps) leaving early after reaggravating his groin, rookie cornerback Joejuan Williams played a season-high 54 percent of defensive snaps. Williams covered pass catchers from the slot and played as a boundary cornerback, as J.C. Jackson filled the role of covering Bills slot receiver Cole Beasley with Jones out. The lengthy, 6-foot-4 Williams was often used on Bills wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie, a diminutive, 5-foot-8 speed threat, or Andre Roberts. Stephon Gilmore mostly covered speedy Bills No. 1 receiver John Brown, who is one of the league’s better deep threats. Brown beat Gilmore and Devin McCourty over top for a touchdown during the game. 

 

-Terrence Brooks often played man coverage as a slot cornerback in this game. The Patriots improvised with an undermanned cornerback group. 

 

-Danny Shelton played on most Nickel 2-4-5 and Big Nickel 2-4-5 snaps, and Adam Butler often played in Big Dime personnel. Lawrence Guy played some in both, and played for almost all the Nickel and Big Nickel snaps. 

-At one point in the fourth quarter, Gilmore played a snap as a two-deep safety alongside Devin McCourty as the Bills attempted to tie the game in the final minutes — Buffalo was down 24-17. 

WEEK 17 (VS MIAMI DOLPHINS)

       

Most common formation: Big Dime 1-4-6

DT — Adam Butler

EDGE (stand-up) — John Simon

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

LB/EDGE — Jamie Collins

LB — Dont’a Hightower

CB (slot) — Jonathan Jones

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson

SS — Patrick Chung

S — Devin McCourty 

FS — Duron Harmon

 

Key inactives/injuries: Terrence Brooks, Jason McCourty, Byron Cowart

 

Interesting wrinkle: Even with Brooks and Jason McCourty inactive, the Patriots heavily leaned on a six-defensive back scheme, utilizing their Big Dime 1-4-6 personnel on 49 percent of their defensive snaps. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-Jonathan Jones (49 percent of defensive snaps) was eased back in after missing the Patriots last game. Joejuan Williams played 22 percent of defensive snaps, his second-most usage of the season. 

 

-The Patriots ran some form of their Nickel 2-4-5 (big or traditional) on 34 percent of snaps, so Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton received a good deal of playing time, but they were outpaced by Adam Butler as the Patriots heavily relied on their Big Dime 1-4-6 personnel. Shelton subbed in for Butler at times in Big Dime 1-4-6 looks. 

 

-Bill Belichick and company again relied on their best players, as six members of the defense played at least 97 percent of defensive snaps. 

 

AFC WILD CARD (VS TENNESSEE TITANS)

       

Most common formation: 3-4

NT — Danny Shelton

DE — Lawrence Guy

DE — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

EDGE (stand-up) — Kyle Van Noy

EDGE (stand-up) — Jamie Collins

LB/EDGE — Dont’a Hightower 

LB — Ja’Whaun Bentley 

CB — Stephon Gilmore 

CB — J.C. Jackson

SS — Patrick Chung

FS — Devin McCourty 

 

Key inactives/injuries: Jason McCourty, Byron Cowart 

 

Interesting wrinkle: The Patriots basically split their time between a traditional 3-4 defense or traditional Nickel 2-4-5 look, as the Patriots attempted to stop Derrick Henry and the Titans’ power rushing attack. Dont’a Hightower split time between an off-ball inside linebacker role, and additional EDGE defender in New England’s 3-4 defense. Jamie Collins played a season-low 53 percent of snaps on defense, as he was limited to Nickel 2-4-5, Big Dime and Quarter looks. Ja’Whaun Bentley, Elandon Roberts and John Simon received playing time over him in a traditional 3-4 look. In all, the team ran a 3-4 defense roughly 47 percent of the time on defense, and a Nickel 2-4-5 defense on roughly 38 percent of snaps. 

 

Additional analysis: 

-The Patriots ran their 3-4 defense on nine of their first 10 plays, and once during that span, ran a 3-4 that was essentially a 4-3, with the line shifting and Simon coming up to essentially be a stand-up 4-3 defensive end over the left tackle.

 

-Patrick Chung (13 snaps) left the game early with an ankle injury. Terrence Brooks replaced him at strong safety, but after giving up a touchdown, his total snap count at the end of the game was a mere five. As a result, Devin McCourty played much more in the box in Chung’s role and Jonathan Jones played a bunch of safety snaps. 

 

-The Patriots had zero snaps with Big Nickel 2-4-5 personnel, which became one of their most popular formations in the second half of the season. Chung’s absence obviously played a role in this. 

 

2019 TRENDS — PERSONNEL, FORMATIONS, USAGE

 

-There were 1,025 possible defensive snaps for the Patriots this season, excluding pre-snap penalties (false start, etc.), 12 men on the field infractions and kneel downs. 

 

-Here are the formations the Patriots used for over two percent of their defensive snaps on the 2019 season, and how often they used them (rounded up to nearest tenth of a percent): 

Nickel 2-4-5 (26.7%)

3-4 (16.4%) 

Big Dime 1-4-6 (15.4%)

Big Nickel 2-4-5 (12.7%)

Big Dime 2-3-6 (10%)

Dime (4 CBs) (6.1%)

Quarter 1-3-7 (4.1%)

Nickel 3-3-5 (2.2%) 

 

-Bill Belichick and his staff, as well as the Patriots players, are known for their versatility and chameleon-like schemes on both offense and defense. New England normally shied away from using the same formation for the majority of two consecutive games, but the team’s traditional Nickel 2-4-5 defense was the closest thing to a “base” defense, with a traditional 3-4 look, or Big Dime or Big Nickel personnel (three safeties) as the next most-common looks. 

 

-New England utilized three safeties or more on roughly 47% of defensive snaps in 2019, which exemplifies their affinity and need for a deep safety depth chart. 

 

-When New England did opt for a Nickel 2-4-5 front, either traditional or “Big,” they often shifted the personnel into a makeshift, “little” 3-4 front with a safety — usually Patrick Chung — up in the box as an inside linebacker, while the strongside EDGE, or 3-4 defensive end — usually John Simon — moved inward as a stand-up 3-4 defensive end. 

 

-In Big Dime 1-4-6 personnel, Adam Butler was almost always the lone defensive lineman, an ode to his pass-rushing ability. Danny Shelton and Lawrence Guy were often used in Nickel 2-4-5 looks, with Deatrich Wise Jr. playing often as a 3-4 defensive end, which doesn’t appear to be his best fit. 

 

-Jonanthan Jones was mostly used as a slot cornerback, but like his usage in Super Bowl 53, he played a good deal of snaps as a safety in two-deep safety looks. Jones’ speed and versatility make him a key member of the New England defense, hence his lucrative contract extension last September. 

 

FINAL OBSERVATIONS/NEWCOMER PROJECTIONS 

With Lawrence Guy set to return as a 3-4 defensive end and defensive tackle in Nickel 2-4-5 fronts and more, newcomer Beau Allen projects to fill Danny Shelton’s role of a Nickel 2-4-5 run stuffer, and 3-4 nose tackle. Deatrich Wise Jr. was often used as a 3-4 defensive end, but that’s not his best fit. It’s worth wondering if he will still be on the roster come September. After somewhat of a red-shirt year, Byron Cowart could be in line for his snaps, with undrafted rookie Nick Coe out of Auburn having an outside chance to make the roster to play some snaps as an interior defender. Adam Butler will resume his role as a pass-rushing specialist, with a chance to see even more playing time in base looks in 2020. 

 

-New England seemingly liked to use Jamie Collins as a stand-up EDGE defender in their 3-4 defense, and as an off-ball linebacker in the middle of the front seven in their Nickel 2-4-5 scheme. Many have mentioned athletic rookie linebacker/EDGE Josh Uche as a replacement for Kyle Van Noy, but projecting him to fill Collins’ role seems more in line with Uche’s skill set. This would mean the rookie would move all along the front seven, perhaps blitzing from multiple spots, like Collins was used. Expect Uche to receive more playing time than any other defensive rookie. 

 

-With Elandon Roberts now in Miami with Van Noy, Ja’Whaun Bentley has an opportunity to fully seize the “thumper” role as an inside linebacker in the Patriots’ 3-4 looks. He split time with Roberts last season, even when Roberts was playing snaps as the team’s fullback later in the season. 

 

-New England may try to replace Van Noy with a team of 3-4 EDGE defenders. Rookie Anfernee Jennings is the team’s best bet as a strongside, edge-setting run defender in the mold of Van Noy, but may not have the pass rushing skills to make up for Van Noy’s production there. Chase Winovich will certainly get an uptick in playing time along the edge, and projects to be one of the Patriots’ key pass rushers next season. John Simon will continue to play on the edge as well, and newcomer Brandon Copeland should see some time there, in addition to his special teams play. The same goes for Shilique Calhoun as an EDGE, if he makes the opening day roster. The aforementioned Uche will also see EDGE snaps and will be heavily relied on to create pressure on the quarterback. 

 

-Bill Belichick’s defense often turned Nickel 2-4-5, Big Nickel 2-4-5 and Big Nickel 3-3-5 personnel into a “little” 3-4 look. We use the term “little” since Patrick Chung or Terrence Brooks were virtually inside linebackers, and John Simon, Chase Winovich or Shilique Calhoun were used as stand-up, undersized 3-4 defensive ends. This was a unique look the Patriots went back too often all season. Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger may both be used in this pseudo-linebacker role, but Phillips is more likely to see these snaps, possibly taking playing time away from Brooks, and possibly making Brooks’ roster spot expendable in 2020. Brooks is a special teams standout, but so is Phillips, who was a second-team All-Pro special teamer in 2018. 

 

-With Duron Harmon out, and the Patriots’ high usage of three-safety packages, expect Dugger and Phillips to receive snaps in place of Harmon. Harmon was more of a free safety than Devin McCourty in these packages, with McCourty drawing “robber” duties in Cover 1. Expect New England to mix and match early on in the season to carve out ideal roles for Phillips and Dugger, meaning McCourty may become the free safety in Big Nickel and Big Dime situations, possibly leaving Dugger or Phillips playing the robber technique, with Patrick Chung playing in the box. Both Dugger and Phillips are capable of playing free safety, but Dugger is more likely to receive snaps there, with Phillips being utilized more in the box, which is where he spent most of his time (119 snaps) in 2019 with the Los Angeles Chargers, according to PFF.  Both Dugger and slot cornerback Jonathan Jones may see duties as a safety opposite McCourty in two-deep looks. Essentially, if Dugger can hit the ground running as a free safety-type, McCourty can continue to play a good amount of snaps as a robber in Cover 1 looks. Newcomer safety Cody Davis (previously with the Jaguars and Rams) could fit in as safety, but projects as more of a Nate Ebner replacement, and will almost exclusively play on special teams. 

 

-Joejuan Williams was given sort of a red shirt year, playing only seven percent of defensive snaps, with his first action coming in Week 5 versus Washington. ESPN’s Mike Reiss recently reported that Williams is learning the safety position. Although he should see some sort of uptick in playing time on defense in 2020, expect Williams to be buried on the depth chart once again. The best fit for Williams may be to utilize him as a man-to-man cover option on athletic tight ends, since it’s unlikely he’ll play as a traditional safety in two-deep packages.

 

-Dugger should also draw man coverage duties versus athletic tight ends, as well as Devin McCourty. McCourty often played man coverage versus the likes of Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce in 2020. 

 

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