There are several factors at play in the race for playoff seeding, which includes a ravaging of rosters via positive COVID-19 cases deeply affecting some contests (WAS-DAL, MIA-NO, etc.).
This has also been one of the tightest races to the postseason in history, particularly in the AFC, where just one team, the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West champions) has clinched a playoff spot.
Old school AFC East currently has seeds 4-7.
Remarkable job by the Dolphins to climb back into the playoff race after starting 1-7 pic.twitter.com/dVNUVpgcYA
With this being the first season with a 17-game schedule, just one season after the league introduced an extra playoff team for each conference, there are a lot of similarities to this season and 2002, which was a year in which the league added the Houston Texans as a team, and realigned the league to feature eight divisions, instead of six.
The mad dash in the AFC feels similar this season. The league will probably better adjust to this new format next season, meaning we can expect slightly less chaos. But for now, let’s enjoy the ride.
There are a lot of takeaways from this week’s action, let’s tackle them in our weekly power ranking section — The Better Half.
THE BETTER HALF
1. Green Bay Packers (12-3) (Last week: 1).
Green Bay survived the Cleveland Browns. They feel and look like a Super Bowl-winning squad, and Aaron Rodgers is close to winning his fourth NFL MVP award, and second in a row.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) (Last week: 2).
The Chiefs have been on fire these past two months, particularly on defense. Their matchup in Cincinnati this week will be a sign of how they stack up versus one of the better (but not great) AFC squads on the road.
Patrick Mahomes record over his last 26 games played in November, December and January (including postseason):
Matthew Stafford had an ugly outing in Minnesota, but regardless, the Rams are still winning. Cooper Kupp (132 catches, 1,734 receiving yards, 13 TDs through 15 games) is having arguably the greatest season for a wide receiver in NFL history. He’s been amazing to watch.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) (Last week: 4).
Tampa will need to have Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back for the playoffs to have a solid shot of returning to the Super Bowl, but for now, the return of Antonio Brown will do for Tom Brady, who has helped elevate a Bucs team that hasn’t been at full go for virtually the entire season. That was a solid win in Carolina, even with the Panthers looking like one of the league’s worst teams.
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) (Last week: 5).
Here comes Dallas. They’re starting to resemble the Super Bowl contending-team that they were earlier in the season. They have a Super Bowl “feel” to them, much like Green Bay, if that makes sense. If they can win out and hang onto the NFC’s No. 2 seed, that would be of big help. But they’ll need some help to do that.
6. Indianapolis Colts (9-6) (Last week: 6).
Down linebacker Darius Leonard, league-best offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, and three more O-line starters for much of the game, the Colts rallied to win in Arizona. Even with Carson Wentz unable to find a rhythm at QB, Indianapolis is a clear contender in the AFC.
7. Buffalo Bills (9-6) (Last week: 8).
The Bills became the first team to win in New England in back to back seasons since Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts did so in 2005 and 2006. Josh Allen (378 total yards, three TDs) was seemingly unstoppable, as Buffalo never punted, scoring on six of their seven possessions, only being stopped by a fourth-and-goal incompletion early on. In all, the Bills converted nine of 16 third and fourth down conversions. At this point in time, they are the better team than the Patriots, and that will likely show in a second consecutive AFC East title.
8. Tennessee Titans (10-5) (Last week: 11).
Tennessee certainly welcomed back receiver A.J. Brown (11 catches, 145 yards, 1 TD vs SF on TNF) with open arms. If they can get Derrick Henry back for the postseason, watch out. They have championship mettle and moxie.
9. New England Patriots (9-6) (Last week: 7). With Cole Beasley out, reserve receiver and special-teamer Isiaiah McKenzie, who entered the game with seven catches for 37 yards, manned the slot position for Buffalo, and had a career-best effort. McKenzie, mostly guarded by Patriots slot CB Myles Bryant, went for 11 catches, 125 receiving yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Bryant was helpless in man coverage/Cover-1 looks on Sunday, with McKenzie really just running across the field on most passing plays. Jalen Mills was equally as bad in zone coverage, allowing any and every pass to be completed underneath versus him. New England had no answer for Josh Allen on defense, and on offense, converted on just one of 10 third-down attempts. Judging by this game, the Patriots badly missed slot cornerback Jonathan Jones and pass-catching back James White. Both suffered season-ending injuries earlier in the season. A Patriots-Bills matchup is the most-likely projected wild card contest in the league, according to ESPN‘s FPI, so New England better figure out how to play these Bills, or they’ll be one and done in the playoffs.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) (Last week: 14).
The AFC North is still a logjam, but the Bengals can now win the division by winning just one of their final two games. Joe Burrow, head coach Zac Taylor, offseason EDGE addition Trey Hendrickson and more have helped turn the Bengals into a pretty good team. Cincinnati fans should be excited for the future, even if a deep playoff run in 2021 is mostly unrealistic.
11. San Francisco 49ers (8-7) (Last week: 9).
That was a rough loss in Tennessee. The 49ers find themselves in a little trouble now, but they should still make the postseason. Jimmy Garoppolo could miss some time, so Trey Lance may make his first start this week at home versus the Houston Texans. Rookie QB Davis Mills has been impressive for Houston, putting a little bit of pressure on Lance.
12. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) (Last week: 10).
For the second straight season, they’re free-falling down the stretch. They have a playoff spot clinched, but no one should feel good about hem heading into January. Can they turn it around? Good grief.
13. Miami Dolphins (8-7) (Last week: NR).
Here come the Dolphins. Sure, they’ve beaten up on a slew of bad opponents with bad quarterback situations, but still, to win seven straight games versus anyone in this league is impressive. Give credit where it’s due. If they can win in Tennessee and at home versus New England, they’re in the playoffs. That seems like too much to ask, but will you count them out? They’re a tough bunch.
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-7) (Last week: 13).
Injuries are ultimately proving too much for them this season. They’ve lost four straight, despite hanging tough in some of their losses versus good teams.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) (Last week: NR).
Here come the Eagles. Loaded with three first-round picks in the Spring, and getting some good play out of quarterback Jalen Hurts, Philly has been a second-half-of-the-season surprise. They have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, but for now, Eagles fans should just enjoy the ride.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) (Last week: 12).
Their loss to Houston on Sunday was as embarrassing and detrimental of a loss as we’ve seen in 2021, but the Chargers still have a shot at the playoffs. They’re not very good, but they have some good players, including young quarterback Justin Herbert. Can they rally?
Next Up: Minnesota, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New Orleans
With three weeks to go in the NFL season, the games, similar to the NBA, have become an afterthought to the sudden surging of COVID-19 cases across the country, giving the nation a March 2020 feel, when it comes to news of the virus.
Even with the 2020 NFL season being played with virtually no fans in the stands, and the 2020 NBA playoffs played entirely in a ‘bubble’ in Orlando, Florida, it feels as if the pandemic is affecting the sports world now, in December, 2020, more than ever.
There have been hundreds of players in both the NFL and NBA that have been put into health and safety protocols over the past 10-12 days.
Here's a full list of all the players placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list today. All 38 players tested positive, per the NFL. pic.twitter.com/dRnkQgngH0
Head coaches have been forced to miss games, as have stars of franchises, and more.
Washington was forced to start Patriots practice-squad quarterback Garrett Gilbert, whom they signed from New England days before, on Tuesday to face the Eagles in Philadelphia in a game that likely decided their season. (They lost, but Gilbert hung tough).
More and more cases, or news of players entering health and safety protocols, have happened this week, making it uncertain if any of them can play this weekend in an ever-important slate of Week 16 action, with the playoffs looming.
But controlling the spread of the virus is more important than the games themselves, or your fantasy football playoffs with your buddies and friends.
Still, both the NFL and NBA have stated, in so many words, that the show must go on, regardless of who can play or not.
Week 16 in the NFL has a slew of interesting matchups, but none bigger than two division-deciding (virtually) contests in the AFC East and AFC North. Let’s give a quick breakdown on those, before getting to our weekly power rankings.
Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5), 1:00 PM ET, CBS
Needless to say, this contest between the two AFC East rivals should be much different than their Week 13 clash in Buffalo. It may be windy, and it should be cold, but more normal football should take place. That means the Bills will look to utilize Josh Allen again. Slot receiver Cole Beasley will miss the game due to COVID-19 protocol, so now the Patriots can key on Stefon Diggs, and containing Allen. The fourth-year QB will still make plays for Buffalo, though, putting more pressure on Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones and the New England offense. With rookie Rhamondre Stevenson iffy for Sunday, it’ll be Damien Harris who will get the brunt of the carries, probably regardless.
New England will certainly throw the ball more than three times in this contest, but establishing the run versus the Bills defense is once again top priority. Through the air, Nelson Agholor (head) and Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19/reserve list) may be no gos. Jones needs at least one to return by Sunday to have a formidable receiving duo. Being smart, and attacking the Bills underneath (Bills LB Tremaine Edmunds, specifically) should be the way to go through the air. This could be a big game for Jakobi Meyers.
Honestly, this sort of feels like Buffalo is primed to pull an upset, yet, I can’t go through with it. Not in a contest that features a head-coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Sean McDermott. Patriots fans have waited a long two years since their last AFC East title. They should get that much closer on Sunday, after another nail-biting win over Buffalo. Patriots 24, Bills 20.
Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), 1:00 PM ET, CBS
Back in October, the Bengals surprisingly clobbered the Ravens, 41-17, in Baltimore. Rookie phenom receiver Ja’Marr Chase racked up 201 yards and a long score (82-yarder) on just eight catches, as Joe Burrow and Cincinnati destroyed Baltimore’s defense.
This time around, the Ravens may not even have Lamar Jackson at quarterback. If they don’t, it’ll be second-year man Tyler Huntley, who has been a pleasant surprise. He’s been solid in the clutch, and his improvisational ability gives Baltimore a semblance of QB-running ability, even if that’s not off designed runs, or to the ability that Jackson brings.
Baltimore is the more experienced team. They’re better coached. They’ve been here, but they are absolutely reeling from injuries.
This is the Bengals’ time to strike. Cincinnati should be able to lean both on Joe Mixon and the running game and Burrow and the passing game.
Even if Jackson misses the game, everything is telling me that Baltimore will pull this out with a display of mental and physical toughness. After all, both teams’ seasons are on the line. But I think the AFC North, at least this season, is susceptible to a take over via new blood. It’s been a wonky season. Give me the Bengals at home. Bengals 27, Ravens 24.
THE BETTER HALF
1. Green Bay Packers (11-3) (Last week: 1). With the competition doing less than treading water recently, Aaron Rodgers is in better position to win his fourth NFL MVP award (and second straight), than he’s been all season.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) (Last week: 3). As of Thursday, both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are on the COVID-19 reserve list. That will complicate things for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense this Sunday at home versus the Steelers.
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-4) (Last week: 5). Jonathan Taylor has been fantastic, but at this point in time, I lean toward Cooper Kupp (barely) as the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year. Kupp has put up insane numbers in what is surely one of the best single seasons in league history for a wide receiver. He’s more than just an underneath slot option. He’s expanded into a pass catcher who can play in any role, using his footwork and overall route-running ability to be virtually uncoverable. What a player.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) (Last week: 2). The injuries didn’t help (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin), but it’s clear the Saints have the Bucs’ number. Tampa Bay could be seeing New Orleans at home in a 2-seed vs. 7-seed matchup in the NFC wild card round in January, so Tom Brady and company better figure this out. Although, last season, Tampa lost twice to New Orleans in the regular season, then defeated them in the Superdome in January.
5. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) (Last week: 7). Cowboys have quietly made their way back into contender status. Dallas hosts Washington this week before a matchup with Arizona in Week 17. There’s no hiding from that one. The Cardinals should be desperate, too, considering their recent slump. We’ll learn a great deal about both teams then, but for now, Dallas has to take care of business at home on Sunday Night Football to lock up the NFC East.
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) (Last week: 9). They were the faster, and possibly more physical team in their 27-17 win over the Patriots on Saturday night. They have big-time 2019 Titans energy, meaning they could find themselves surprising many to reach the AFC Championship Game. But that is likely their ceiling, unless Carson Wentz flips the script entirely in January. Those 2019 Titans were even handicapped by Ryan Tannehill, who at the time was a better quarterback (and still is) than Wentz right now. But for the time being, let’s praise the Colts. This is a well-coached team and wonderfully-crafted roster. Well done, Frank Reich and Chris Ballard.
7. New England Patriots (9-5) (Last week: 4). It took three full quarters for the Patriots, who entered the fourth period down 20-0, to match Indianapolis’ energy. Mac Jones’ dreadful start and late-game heroics/magic was reminiscent of Brady, though. That’s a macro-level, big-picture (beyond this season) silver lining for a franchise that is tied to its hopeful young quarterback. Next up — Buffalo. The Patriots will basically clinch the AFC East with a win. This is a massive game.
8. Buffalo Bills (8-6) (Last week: 10). After all that has happened recently, the Bills have a chance to avenge their loss to New England by taking down the Patriots in their own house this weekend, and re-taking the AFC East lead with just two weeks to go. Buffalo plays Atlanta and the New York Jets after this, so this game should decide the division either way.
9. San Francisco 49ers (8-6) (Last week: 11). Like the Colts in the AFC, the 49ers are quickly becoming a team in the NFC that has come on strong as of late, and that no team would like to face in January. The combination of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle is up there with the best one-two punches on offense in the league.
10. Arizona Cardinals (10-4) (Last week: 6). For the second straight season, the Cardinals are sliding down the stretch. They’ll make the playoffs regardless this time around. But they’ll need to show some fight versus Indianapolis, Dallas and Seattle to be any sort of a factor in the playoffs.
11. Tennessee Titans (9-5) (Last week: 8). They just need to get healthy. Without Derrick Henry or A.J. Brown, they can’t do much of anything on offense. But if those two can come back (and be relatively healthy) for the playoffs, watch out.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) (Last week: 12). Justin Herbert is phenomenal, but like their predecessors, there’s still a lot of ‘Chargers are gonna’ Charger’ energy with this team. Winning two of their final three games may be enough to get them into the playoffs.
13. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (Last week: 13). Their sound coaching, and overall toughness/smarts have kept them afloat amidst a devastating season of injuries, but it’s starting to become too much. Their season is likely on the line in Cincinnati this week.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) (Last week: 15).A win at home over Baltimore on Sunday would give them a season sweep of the Ravens, and pull them extremely close to locking up the AFC North title. This is their shot. Biggest game of Joe Burrow’s NFL career thus far.
15. Minnesota Vikings (7-7) (Last week: 16). They’re hanging around, even if apathetically. They have talent, but no one should trust them.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) (Last week: NR). The Steelers, a proud franchise, have been gutsy this season. They’re still in the mix. Sunday’s game in Kansas City is almost a must-win for them, though.
Next Up: New Orleans, Miami, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Philadelphia
Just four months ago, many wondered if the NFL would successfully get through all 256 games during their preset, schedule-based time frame. Well, it wasn’t easy, and several somewhat-questionable decisions were made to work around the COVID-19 pandemic, but alas, the regular season is over, and the playoffs will begin on time.
Before jumping into the major talking points for this postseason, here is my Twitter-released picks for the NFL’s season awards, all of which won’t be given out until the night before the Super Bowl.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers (Runner-up: Patrick Mahomes) OPOY: Derrick Henry (Runner-up: Davante Adams) DPOY: Aaron Donald (Runner-up: T.J. Watt) COY: Kevin Stefanski (Runner-up: Brian Flores) OROY: Justin Jefferson (Runner-up: Justin Herbert) DROY: Chase Young Comeback: Alex Smith
After Sunday’s performance in Chicago, the decision to name Aaron Rodgers MVP for the third time in his career is an easy one, in my opinion. It feels odd leaving Josh Allen’s name out of anything above, including the runner-up mentions, but Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes were simply that good this year. Plus, the Offensive Player of the Year award race (if not won by Rodgers), features a 2,000-yard rusher (Derrick Henry) and a wide receiver (Davante Adams) who hauled in 18 touchdown passes with heavy defensive attention do to the lack of teammate talent on offense, sans Rodgers.
My toughest call was selecting Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson over Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert for the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year honor. Herbert’s stat line was historically superb for a rookie QB (4,336 passing yards, 31 TD passes, 10 INTs), and the Chargers finished the season with four straight victories, but Jefferson was simply unstoppable as a wide receiver for just about the entire season. Jefferson’s play (88 catches, 1,400 receiving yards, 7 TDs) was so efficient that it validated the Vikings’ trade that involved jettisoning now-Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, who should be an All-Pro this season.
Now, without further ado, let’s talk playoffs.
*******
Despite a deep AFC playoff field, the Kansas City Chiefs are in good position to return to the Super Bowl. This year’s AFC had seven teams with 11-plus wins, making it one of the deepest conferences we’ve ever seen. But outside of the conference’s top two seeds — Chiefs and Buffalo Bills — it’s difficult to imagine any of the remaining five squads winning three straight games to reach the Super Bowl. However, it’s easy to envision one or more of those dark-horse clubs pulling at least one major upset, and possibly going on a surprising run to the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens, Titans and Browns are the top three rushing teams in football, and the Colts, led by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and a top-tier offensive line, have come on strong in the run game as of late. Despite the devaluation of the running back position, and running game in general, it’s still an important aspect of the game that becomes vital come January, unless you have an all-time great at quarterback. But take last season’s Titans team, which rode Derrick Henry’s back to the AFC title game. The team had the moxie and personnel to make such a run, but after taking 10-0 lead in Kansas City, the wheels came off as Ryan Tannehill couldn’t keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company. Tannehill has thrown for 40 touchdown passes this season, but questions will remain on his ability to beat teams like Kansas City and Buffalo on the roadie a shootout. The same sort of issues lie in Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis. Despite the talent and ability of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield and Colts passer Phillip Rivers, neither can be trusted to go on a three-game march to Tampa, out-dueling the likes of Mahomes, Allen, or both, on the road in the process. And in Baltimore, no one should question that Lamar Jackson is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in football, but the Ravens’ lack of wide-receiver personnel and Jackson’s struggles throwing to the perimeter are well documented, and teams like the Chiefs, and probably the Titans, will look to expose those flaws. The biggest threat to Kansas City is the obvious choice — the Bills. Josh Allen has been on fire as of late, and the Bills have the offensive firepower to go toe to toe with Kansas City. But unfortunately, they’ll need Allen to be almost perfect, considering their lack of a consistent run game. So in a battle between the Bills and Chiefs in Kansas City, who would you go with? So, the point is, do all of these teams make for a tough matchup for the defensively-challenged Chiefs? Yes. But if Kansas City is to lose, it would still be a massive upset.
The NFC playoff field is essentially a three-team race. When assessing the NFC, one can easily put aside the “Any Given Sunday” slogan to assume the No. 7 seed Chicago Bears (8-8) and NFC East-winning Washington Football Team (7-9) are not going on a run to Super Bowl 55. It’s just not happening. So that leaves five teams in the mix. The winner of the Seahawks-Rams contest on Saturday will certainly present a challenge in Round 2. Both teams have their issues, but the Rams’ defense is the league’s top-ranked unit on that side of the ball, and we all know rules don’t apply to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ offense. Still, with Seattle’s defensive woes and the Rams’ lack of consistency at the quarterback position, it’s unlikely one of these teams reaches the Super Bowl, although one would be unwise to totally discount Wilson’s Seahawks. That leaves three teams as true contenders. The Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay has a leg up with home-field advantage and a first-round bye, plus Aaron Rodgers is playing like a man possessed. Still, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are the more talented teams. The Buccaneers have won four straight games, averaging 37 points per contest in the process — albeit versus lesser opponents — and have scored 38 points or more in six different wins this season. With Tom Brady, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski starting to flourish in Bruce Arians’ offense, them, along with their top two receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) and running game presents an offense that absolutely can continue this tear, although Tampa’s 1-5 mark versus current playoff teams is a concern. In New Orleans, the Saints’ offense has revolved around running back Alvin Kamara, and soon-to-be-42-year-old quarterback Drew Brees is starting to look his age. On top of that, superstar receiver Michael Thomas is dealing with a nightmare year. Luckily, the Saints have the fourth-ranked defense (310.9 yards per game allowed) and their plus-nine turnover differential is tied for third-best in the league. They do the little things right, and any last-hurrah ability by Brees would be enough for New Orleans to make a run. Really, all three teams have a solid shot of making the Super Bowl, and each has a team they likely wouldn’t want to see again, but likely will. The Packers are a bad matchup for the Saints. The Buccaneers are a bad matchup for the Packers. And the Saints seem to have the Bucs’ number.
Aaron Rodgers is facing more pressure than any other player in the playoff field. Just last summer, many wondered how much time Rodgers had left with the Packers. Green Bay had just opted to draft Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in the first round (No. 30 pick), and the Packers legend seemed irritated following his first season under new head coach Matt LaFluer. Well, Green Bay went 13-3 again this year, but things were much different, as Rodgers has co-existed with the Green Bay coach’s system, throwing a league-leading 48 touchdown passes and posted a 121.5 passer rating in a season that should win him his third career NFL MVP award. Rodgers met the swirling storylines and pressure head on, to return to his best form. Now, Rodgers faces a new kind of pressure as he attempts to make his second Super Bowl appearance a decade removed from his lone Super Bowl win. This seems to be an off year in the NFC, which has been a haven for a bevy of talented teams appearing at once over the past 10 or so years. Who knows how the conference will look in 2021 and beyond? Harboring home-field advantage, the time is now for Rodgers to make a run. Looking at the field, there’s a good chance his first playoff game this year will be versus Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. Like the never-materialized dream scenario of a LeBron James-Kobe Bryant NBA Finals, the chances of a Brady-Rodgers Super Bowl have likely passed, but a playoff battle between the two would certainly do. Despite Brady’s star-studded cast and eagerness to prove himself outside of New England, most of the pressure would still lie with Rodgers.
Chiefs-Packers leads most likely Super Bowl 55 matchups. Because of the new playoff rules, the top seeds in each conference now hold even more of an advantage, as they are the only playoff teams that receive first-round byes. The well-rested Chiefs and Packers each are in good position to reach Super Bowl 55, which would be a rematch of Super Bowl 1 if it were to happen. The Chiefs have simply looked bored as of late, but the defending champs are clearly the Super Bowl favorite. Outside of Kansas City and Green Bay, the Bills look like the next best Super Bowl contender. Buffalo is a true challenger to the Chiefs. Is it that hard to envision a Buffalo-Tampa Bay Super Bowl where the Bills must face their nemesis, Tom Brady, one last time to finally claim a Super Bowl win? What about Bills-Saints? Or Chiefs-Saints? The latter seemed to be a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick. My preseason pick was Ravens over Saints, and although that certainly can happen, Baltimore is now simply just a dark-horse candidate at best, until proven otherwise. The Ravens have been hot as of late, but like Tampa Bay, they’ve beaten up on bottom-of-the-barrel opponents. Barring a crazy unforeseen run, any combination of Kansas City or Buffalo paired against Green Bay, New Orleans or Tampa Bay will likely be the Super Bowl 55 matchup.
My early inclination is that the Saints and Bucs will have some trouble with the Bears and Washington, but each will move on, while the Seahawks survive another bludgeoning by the Rams. In the AFC, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers will look surprisingly sharp in a takedown of Baker Mayfield’s Browns, while Phillip Rivers and the Colts will predictably self-destruct their game-long, small lead over the Bills in Buffalo sometime in the third quarter, giving Josh Allen his first playoff win. That leaves my favorite game of the week — Titans-Ravens. It would be poetic justice for Lamar Jackson to earn his first playoff win in revengeful fashion over the Titans. Stating that this game could go either way really feels like a copout, but it’s true. As of now, give me Baltimore in a close contest. It’s Jackson’s time.
A week removed from the Patriots’ disappointing end to their 2019 season comes with perspective.
Since the loss, Tom Brady offered a reflective Instagram post (see below), special teams coordinator (and WR coach) Joe Judge left to become head coach of the New York Giants, and rumors have Brady leaving to play for the Los Angeles Chargers have already been discussed at a nauseating state. Not to mention, Josh McDaniels could be the Browns’ next head coach.
But for those who want the most realistic answers, as opposed to the most exciting (and absurd), listen up.
*******
It doesn’t take a football expert to realize the major problem with this season’s Patriots squad.
It was the offense.
Looking further, there were three problems with the unit, and this is where I put the blame:
Lack of talent in pass-catching group (WR, TE) — 60%
Offensive line/blocking – Inconsistency, retirement/injuries (Rob Gronkowski, David Andrews, James Develin) — 25%
Tom Brady’s decline due to age — 15%
Yes, Brady — who will turn 43 in August — is in a decline, but it’s more of a dip likened to slowly sliding down a small, snow-covered hill slowly — something you’d let your toddler do. It’s not a steep cliff, per se. Not yet.
His NFL MVP year in 2017 may be his last prime year, but of course, that was his last year with top-tier weapons in last-year-of-his-prime Rob Gronkowski and speedy deep threat Brandin Cooks.
Brady made due in 2018, even going score for score with Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs (on the road) in the AFC title game, with an over-the-hill Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett as his outside receivers.
Then came this season.
The coming and going of Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas are well-documented.
Although the Patriots could have used the latter two, Brown is the only one who truly would have transformed this offense. Despite mostly living and dying in the middle of the field post-Randy Moss, Brady was in desperate need of a receiver that could create separation and become a threat on the outside. Brown is versatile enough to line up all over the field, and win anywhere, but he failed to stay in line.
Had Brown been there, teams would have thought twice about playing man coverage across the board, but instead, New England’s pass catchers ranked 32nd (dead last) in average separation per pass play, and were second in the league in drops (34).
Mohammed Sanu — acquired from the Falcons for a second-round pick — and rookie N’Keal Harry — 2019 first-round pick — certainly attributed to those stats. Judging by his speed, Sanu’s days of being starting receiver seem over, and Harry failed to grasp New England’s playbook, or a rapport with Brady, after missing the first half of the season.
New England was also in need of any semblance of pass-catching and run-blocking at the tight end position. They got virtually none in 39-year-old Ben Watson and backup-level Matt LaCosse.
The offensive line also struggled at times before Isaiah Wynn returned from injury to put a struggling Marshall Newhouse to the bench. But struggles could also be attributed to a horrible down year from Shaq Mason after he had improved his pass blocking in 2018. The loss of David Andrews at center also hurt, and Marcus Cannon showed his age at times. Only Joe Thuney (who is now a free agent) played consistently well.
The run blocking also failed to find it’s footing with the losses of Andrews, Gronkowski and full back James Develin leading the way. The unit did find a rythmn in late December, just like last season. Sony Michel seems unworthy of a first-round pick, but he does have a knack for coming through and running hard in December and January. That counts for something.
But what now? The Patriots are scheduled to have roughly $49 million in cap space, and 12 picks in the draft.
Tom Brady should be back on a masked one-year deal that has one or two future years that serve only to mitigate Brady’s cap hit in 2020. But yes, Brady will be back, and he should.
The Patriots made their bed when they traded Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco for a second-round pick because Brady outlasted him.
Now, with little ammo to move up to select a top-tier passer in the draft, and only soon-to-be second-year man Jarrett Stidham on the roster, there is no real replacement for Brady on the horizon.
Even the slew of available or semi-available quarterbacks this offseason — Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, — is nothing to be optimistic about, if New England is indeed hoping to continue as a consistent Super Bowl contender with no major rebuilding phase.
Re-signing Brady is the best for both the GOAT and Bill Belichick’s team.
New England is in need of an aggressive re-tooling this offseason, but it can be done. Pass catchers like A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper are expected to hit free agency, and pass catchers such as O.J. Howard, Brandin Cooks and maybe even Odell Beckham Jr. may be available via trade.
Barring something unusual in Belichick’s usual draft strategy, New England’s higher-than-usual slot of the No. 23 pick in the first round will not stay as is. The Patriots are more liable to trade down, or trade away the pick for help on offense — Odell Beckham Jr. should be their main target.
On top of several high-profile moves that can be made, 34-year-old Danny Amendola hits free agency as a possible reliable target for Brady. Amendola has shown flashes in Miami and Detroit the last two seasons, and could look to return to New England for one last run.
Then there’s Gronkowski. Although he probably won’t return, the chance is always there.
The three different contract options for Tom Brady and the Patriots:
Still, Brady will have to cooperate to help New England here. He’ll first have to be willing to take slightly less money than he deserves. A deal that nets him around $25 million a year should be reasonable. He deserves more, but has to take less money if he indeed wants help in the form of pass-catching personnel.
Second, he’ll have to sign his deal before March 18th to avoid New England taking on an additional $13.5 million cap hit due to his last deal signed last offseason.
Brady’s recent Instagram post (I know, speculation), Robert Kraft’s love for him, and Bill Belichick’s lack of other options at quarterback should make this deal work.
New England could also lose Thuney and several defensive pieces — Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Jason McCourty, Danny Shelton — could be on the move. New England should at least look to retain McCourty and special teams ace Matthew Slater for perhaps one more season each.
The defense did its part in 2019, and that was likely their peak, with this veteran group. Chase Winovich can perhaps fill Van Noy’s role and New England’s cornerback situation — Stephon Gilmore (No. 1 CB), J.C. Jackson (No. 2 CB) and Jonathan Jones (slot) should hit its position group peak in 2020, but the unit as a whole will take a dip.
The offense will need to step up. They’ll need additional personnel to do that, and perhaps familiarity at offensive coordinator. If McDaniels leaves for Cleveland, former wide receivers coach Chad O’Shea should be brought in after his one-year stint as Miami’s offensive coordinator.
The plan is in place for the Patriots to get back to their usual ways in 2020. Despite the horrid end to their season, the end is not yet here. But it’s close.
But as Brady said, he “still has more to prove.” He’s just going to need some help.
Your move, Patriots.
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW
Fresh off one of the more exciting (and possibly telling) Wild Card rounds in years, the NFL’s divisional round poses intrigue in its own right.
The AFC champion will feature a quarterback not named Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisbeger for the firs time in 17 years. Soon-to-be-named 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, and college-standout-turned-pro Deshaun Watson represent the changing of the guard, and probably future of the position and the AFC.
The NFC features a matchup between two of the best quarterbacks of the past decade in Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, while Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins face off in the Kyle Shanahan Bowl, which doubles as a contest between the two most complete remaining teams outside of Baltimore.
There’s a lot to uncover. Here’s a preview — and prediction — for each game.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (No. 6 seed. 11-6) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (No. 1 seed, 13-3) — Saturday 4:35pm ET, NBC
Kirk Cousins defied the odds in picking up the biggest win of his career last week in New Orleans. The Vikings, a talented team in their own right, took care of what may be the second-most talented bunch of the NFC, with Minnesota being the third. The first? That would be the 49ers.
The abundance of first-round picks along the defensive line over the years was topped off by the monster acquisitions of Dee Ford and rookie Nick Bosa this offseason. Those two on the edge, paired with the underrated DeForest Buckner in the interior makes for the best defensive line in football. Expect this group to get after Cousins.
On offense, Jimmy Garoppolo has been much better in the second half of the season than he was in the first (probably because of his ACL tear in 2018), and that should continue here, albeit a talented Minnesota defense. Hitting on both midseason acquisition Emmanuel Sanders and rookie second-round pick Deebo Samuel at receiver has been huge, and having George Kittle is even bigger. Kittle is the both the best pass-catching and blocking tight end in football, and even Minnesota’s Harrison Smith will have trouble corralling him.
San Francisco will work best both working the running game and play-action throws into the mix, to fend off a Minnesota pass rush of Everson Griffen and Daniele Hunter, that got after Drew Brees last week.
Former All-pro cornerback Xavier Rhodes has struggled some the past two seasons, so if Minnesota opts to use him on Sanders, the latter should have some success using his quickness against the larger Rhodes.
Minnesota will find ways to fend off San Francisco’s pass rush by running Dalvin Cook like they did last week in New Orleans. They should have some success. But Kyle Shanahan’s team will score, and Minnesota will look to Kirk Cousins to match. Richard Sherman battling Adam Thielen will be great theatre, but it’s Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph — along with Cousins — that will have to win the game for Minnesota.
The Vikings play well once more, but Jimmy G’s 49ers are up to the task. San Francisco wins a close contest via long-sustaining drives late and one key turnover forced by the pass rush.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Vikings 24
TENNESSEE TITANS (No. 6 seed. 10-7) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (No. 1 seed, 14-2) — Saturday 8:15pm ET, CBS
After bowling over the Patriots’ top-ranked defense for 184 yards and a score — on 34 carries! — Derrick Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher this season, has now garnered 1,080 yards on the ground in just the last seven games.
Ryan Tannehill’s performance last week — 8 for 15, 72 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT — left much to be desired. Even if Henry is to continue his dominant ways versus Baltimore, Tannehill will have to play better to offset what should be a ready-for-action explosion of Lamar Jackson’s offense.
The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since before Christmas, and should be chomping at the bit to shake off the possible rust. The health of Mark Ingram and Mark Andrews will play a major role in just how potent Baltimore’s attack is. So will the discipline and remaining spunk in the Titans’ defensive tank.
Jurrell Casey will do his best to clog up the middle lanes, but next-line-of-defense playmakers like rookie linebacker Rashaan Evans, and EDGE defender Harold Landry will need to be at their best in hopes of somewhat corralling Lamar.
Safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccarro have also spent a lot of time cheating up to the line of scrimmage to help with their rush defense. They should continue that this week, while also being mindful of the short-middle in the passing game. A muddled middle with a way of slowing down the rushing attack would force Lamar to throw outside the numbers to the likes of Hollywood Brown and Willie Snead.
Technically, Tennessee has a defense that could theoretically slow down the soon-to-be NFL MVP, but listing that here is not the same as them executing.
And Baltimore’s aggressive defensive backfield consisting of Earl Thomas, Marlon Humprhey and Marcus Peters will come in to play here, probably to the detriment of Tannehill.
If the Titans can chew the clock and score touchdowns behind Henry and the occasional Tannehill play-action pass, while also holding Baltimore to under 24 points, then they have a shot.
But that seems too much to ask.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Titans 16
HOUSTON TEXANS (No. 4 seed. 11-6) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (No. 2 seed, 12-4) — Sunday 3:05pm ET, CBS
In a game in which only Patriots and Bears fans (check out the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft) may attest to being exciting, two of the most supernatural QBs will go at it in Kansas City.
Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.
Both are liable to carry their team to 30-plus point performances. But Patrick Mahomes really doesn’t have to, at least not by himself. Deep threat Tyreek Hill and ‘Y’ receiver/tight end Travis Kelce supply him with one of the best one-two punches on offense. And on defense, Kansas City’s unit has adjusted to first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes after a rocky start.
Watson has help in DeAndre Hopkins, but he’ll need fellow former first-round pick Will Fuller to acompany him on the outside. Fuller is an immaculate deep threat, if not much else. And his presence will help ease attention on Hopkins, who could see double teams, and Kenny Stills, who would maybe see Tyrann Mathieu in the slot — Mathieu has allowed a league-low 40.7 passer rating in the slot since Week 10, according to Pro Football Focus.
Houston will need to pressure Mahomes to even have a shot at winning, and although they finished the year 26th in that category (31 sacks), J.J. Watt’s return should give them more confidence there.
Houston’s defense has some major holes, but Bradley Roby isn’t one of them. The former first-round pick from Denver has played with controlled aggression, and has basically taken over for Marcus Peters as perhaps the best aggressive-style cornerback (in terms of taking chances) the past month. Will they opt to use him on Sammy Watkins, with a possible shift to man coverage on Kelce on key downs? And even then, Hill is liable to beat them deep.
Mahomes has not looked as sharp since returning from injury midseason, but he’s slowly gotten better as he has healed. But the Chiefs have been okay behind a suddenly-superb defense that should be able to stop any full-throttle plans by Houston to run out the clock with Carlos Hyde. So even though the Texans won in Kansas City (31-24) back in October behind 192 rushing yards, they are unlikely to repeat that here. Kansas City will force Houston into a shootout where they will tee off on Watson with their pass rush. And judging by Buffalo’s seven sacks versus them last week, they’ll be able to do that.
Kansas City wins behind a few big plays on offense, and a 5-sack performance on Watson. If there is to be one blowout this week, this is the game.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Texans 17
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (No. 4 seed. 12-5) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (No. 2 seed, 13-3) — Sunday 6:40pm ET, FOX
On Sunday night, two future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks will square off in the postseason for the first time since Russell Wilson and the Legion-of-Boom Seahawks came back to beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in an overtime contest in Seattle that sent the Seahawks to the Super Bowl.
Although much has changed since then, it will be Wilson versus Rodgers once more, but this time in Lambeau Field.
The weather in Green Bay on Sunday is supposed to hover around 20 degrees, with partly sunny weather, but that’s after Green Bay is expecting to hire over 700 shovelers on Sunday morning to clear out what could be as much as 10 inches of snow for the night before. Regardless, it will be cold.
The frigid weather would benefit a fully-healthy Seattle, who’s top back — Chris Carson — rushed for 1,230 yards this season. But Carson and his next two backups, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise are all out, leaving the Seahawks with Marshawn Lynch, whom they picked up before Week 17.
Looking over at Lynch on the Seattle sideline may give Rodgers enough jolt to remember the NFC title game that got away form him in Seattle. He’ll want this one. But the Packers have struggled at times on offense this season behind rookie head coach Matt LeFleur’s scheme. In Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones, the Packers have two top-tier weapons, but there’s not much after that, giving Seattle an easier time to game plan. The Seahawks’ best bet is to neutralize Jones on the ground, and then to hope for a fine performance from Jadeveon Clowney on the edge. Clowney has been inconsistent in his first season in Seattle, but at times has taken over games, showcasing why they brought him in.
Green Bay’s improved defense should be able to hold Seattle’s rushing attack down, meaning Wilson will likely run for his life throughout the game, considering Green Bay’s improved pass rush with the Smith’s — Zadarius and Preston.
But this is where Wilson thrives, when all the chips are down. Although rookie sensation D.K. Metcalf may struggle to separate versus Green Bay’s No. 1 cornerback, Jaire Alexander, Tyler Lockett should be able to find some success working out of the slot, even against 36-year-old stalwart Tramon Williams, who has been awesome this season.
The play of Seattle’s offensive line will be key here, but Wilson will extend plays on his own anyhow. He always does.
Hoping to avenge a loss that haunts him, and with the weather and home crowd backing him, this should be a game where Rodgers leads Green Bay to victory. Especially considering Seattle’s injury situation and incomplete roster.
But this feels like the last win in a heroic season for Russell Wilson, who has carried teams better than any other quarterback the past few seasons, and has been specifically good this season, even with somewhat of a December swoon. Wilson gets it done, and surprisingly gets a little help from his defense, and missed opportunities by the Packers’ offense.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Packers 17
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler predicts double digit underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft after this game, detailing just how much talent will be on the field.
That stat doesn’t include redshirt senior Joe Burrow, who has maxed out his college eligibility to his final game, which could give him the perfect send-off — a National Championship.
The Heisman Trophy winner will look toward main target Justin Jefferson early and often, which should result in points. Although Clemson is heavily talented, LSU is the better team. Clemson should figure out a way to slow LSU, which is something that no team has done this season, but the Tigers will adjust and retaliate.
But the thing about Clemson is, they’re not scared. They have the experience, as shown by their comeback win over Ohio State in their CFP Semifinal victory. True Sophomore Trevor Lawrence is undefeated as a starter (25-0) and Clemson enters the contest not only as the defending National champions, but as a team with an 29-game winning streak.
Even against a more talented LSU squad that features a litany of pro talent on defense, Lawrence will find ways to score. Expect the game to be a back-and-forth affair with both teams scoring in the final minutes.
I have a feeling that Burrow’s season for the ages ends in him slaying Clemson, before heading to the Cincinnati Bengals as the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft this spring.
No Guts No Glory 