Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa

Brent’s Extra Points: 2020 NFL Draft Review + Analyzing Gronk trade

Because of the litany of reports, mock drafts and over-speculation geared toward the NFL Draft, which remains sort of a Christmas Day for many (it’s fun!), I decided to skip out on a mock draft piece for the second straight year. Instead, I tweeted out my mock and decided to put together this more-useful draft recap, equipped with some of the league’s biggest storylines from the past week.

This year, the usual intrigue of the draft was maximized by the actual logistics and broadcast of the event itself, as COVID-19 has put a halt on our lives.

Because of our state, this “virtual” draft expectedly became the most-watched ever, drawing in a first-night record of over 15.6 million viewers across broadcast, cable and digital streaming via ABC, ESPN and NFL Network (The previous high for Round 1 was 12.4 million viewers in 2014) and reaching a record total weekend viewership of over 55 million (up 35 percent from last year).

But roughly 48 hours before the NFL Draft at its most interesting state, the unprecedented intrigue over the league’s event was temporarily hijacked by league news of Rob Gronkowski’s return to the league to play with Tom Brady on the Tampa Bay Buccaneeers.

If you scroll down, you’ll see that I tackle some of the biggest post-draft topics, with analysis stemming from Day 1 to Day 2selections, and some thoughts on Cam Newton and some of the remaining free agents, but first, lets examine the Gronk trade and the Buccaneers’ draft selections.

 What are the takeaways from the Gronk return-and-trade, Buccaneers draft?

There are many takes swirling around about Brady and Gronkowski scheming together after Super Bowl 53 for Gronk to retire, avoid another year under Bill Belichick, and then return to force a trade once Brady signed with his new team a year later. Although I won’t fully dismiss those claims, I won’t get into that. Although Belichick’s program can be demanding, and it certainly appears it became taxing for Brady and Gronk down the stretch, I believe the respect between all three of them remains and will be discussed among them after all all parties are retired from the sport. As it is, both Brady and Gronk have now praised Belichick, even if lightly, in their introductory conferences with Tampa. Many are trying to twist the knife on Patriots nation, but the fact of the matter is that New England received 20 years from Brady, nine from Gronkowski, and Robert Kraft’s fanbase was able to root for the best quarterback (and player) and tight end in NFL history, all while celebrating six Super Bowl championships. The sixth Super Bowl title also offsets any revisionist talk of the Patriots ultimately not trading Gronkowski to Detroit for a haul of premium picks in 2018. The title makes it all worth it. In the end, everything was worth it. This is not the end that the Patriots organization, or its supporters envisioned for Brady’s (or Gronk’s) career, but those memories will always be there. I choose to look on the bright side. It’ll be must-see television when Brady and Gronkowski reunite for a few more touchdowns. Things could be worse.

Now, for the important stuff —

Although Gronkowski still could plug-and-play as the NFL’s best blocking tight end, his skills as the best pass catcher at the position seemed to finally diminish in 2018. Now, with a year of rest, a rejuvenated Gronk may improve on that front in 2018, but he’ll also be entering his age-31 season. Gronk is a huge get, but not as massive of a bring-in that many believe. Still, it’s an important, low-risk move that helps add to Brady’s comfortability with his new team.

Many speculated that Gronkowski hopping onboard meant the Bucs would become more lenient in their willingness to trade OJ Howard for more realistic assets. According to a report on Sunday from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler above, that does not seem to be the case.

I believe Howard may still be dealt, even as late as the preseason, but the team seems content to holding on to all three tight ends, which also includes Cameron Brate, who took a pay cut to stick around. Howard was misused under Arians last year, but maybe Brady’s affinity for middle-of-the-field passing to athletic tight ends will force Arians to be more creative in his usage of both Gronk and Howard in an ’12’ personnel (1 running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) that would include X-receiver Mike Evans and slot/flanker hybrid Chris Godwin.

Furthermore, Gronkowski and Howard are versatile enough to play as in-line tight ends, out wide, or in the slot as ‘Y’ pass catchers. Gronk recently said his playing weight was at around 262 pounds, and he currently weighs 250.

Basically, this addition of Gronkowski, and the draft, show how committed Tampa Bay is to winning now, in the next year or two.

The team lucked out when Iowa’s plug-and-play tackle Tristan Wirfs fell out of the top 10. The Buccaneers traded up one spot to No. 13 to get their new right tackle, who I think is most pro-ready over the likes of guys like Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton. I thought the Giants would get Wirfs at No. 4, but they went with Thomas.

Later on, the team added a No. 3 wide receiver in Minnesota’s Tyler Johnson in Round 5. I suspected Johnson would go somewhere in the third or fourth round. I thought of him as one of the best mid-round value picks at any position. He should be good to go in the slot as a bigger option in the middle of the field, capable of coming down with tough grabs. He’ll be an excellent addition who will produce in 2020. Just watch.

Furthermore, the team added to their young-and-improving defense with the selection of versatile, safety/nickel back hybrid Antoine Winfield Jr. (whose father played as a cornerback for the Bills in the 2000s, often facing off with Brady) in Round 2.

This Buccaneers team is ready to go, and I suspect they’ll be one of the NFL’s five or six best teams, even if there is a little risk involved.

 Jordan Love/Aaron Rodgers = Jimmy Garoppolo /Tom Brady

The Packers surprised many by bypassing on a wide receiver or offensive weapon in the first round, instead trading up to the No. 26 slot to select what appears to be Aaron Rodgers’ eventual successor in Utah State’s Jordan Love.

In Love, Green Bay gets a boom-or-bust, raw quarterback prospect with a strong arm and the ability to make highlight-worthy plays, but has struggled to produce consistently. Some have compared Love to Patrick Mahomes, and some have said that he was not worth selecting in the first round, or perhaps, any round.

And Green Bay opted for Love, instead of supplying a 36-year-old Rodgers with offensive help. In fact, Rodgers has been the last offensive skill position player selected (2005) by Green Bay in the first round.

Instead of the Brett Favre-Rodgers scenario that saw Rodgers, a possible No. 1 overall pick, fall into Green Bay’s lap, this situation is much more to the tune of the Tom Brady-Jimmy Garoppolo situation that began in in New England after the 2014 NFL Draft.

Brady was entering his age-37 season in 2014, and although it was more of a lack of offensive help that produced a decline in production, it appeared New England was bracing for their next franchise passer when they selected Garoppolo with the 62nd pick of the 2014 draft.

Of course, Brady outlived ‘The Patriot Way’ by fending off Garoppolo for the starting role, winning two Super Bowls with him on the roster, and reaching two more (winning one) after Garoppolo was traded to the 49ers during the 2017 midseason.

Rodgers hasn’t had a Rodgers-esque season since his near “run-the-table” affair with a severely undermanned 2016 squad, in which he led them on eight straight wins following a 4-6 start, before succumbing to a more-talented Falcons squad in Atlanta in the 2016 NFC Championship Game.

It’s more than fair to wonder if Rodgers’ best days are behind him, like we did with Brady in 2014, but there’s also a chance this ignites a fire under Rodgers for a late-career revival.

But if he is to do that, he’ll need to work with a roster that GM Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt Lafleur have clearly built to cater to a running game in two-tight end sets.

Rodgers could end his career elsewhere, a la Favre, or Brady, or he could fend Love off until 2024 and retire then. We’ll see.

 What about the Eagles and Saints’ QB rooms? Jalen Hurts? Jameis Winston? 

The Eagles shocked many with their selection of Jalen Hurts with the No. 53 pick in the draft, just 11 months removed from their four-year extension of Carson Wentz that included up to $144 million, with $66 million fully guaranteed.

Philadelphia clearly sees something in the versatile, intangible-driven Hurts. Given Wentz’s injury history, Hurts is likely a safe fail in that case, but there’s also the chance that they view him as someone who can come in and produced in specialized plays like Taysom Hill, or more so, like Lamar Jackson in his rookie season when he backed up Joe Flacco.

At the very least, the Eagles may just like what they see in Hurts, and are willing to develop him to eventually challenge for the starting quarterback role, although that feels like a long shot.

The Saints opted not to draft Jordan Love, or any quarterback near the top of the draft (they drafted Mississippi State’s Tommy Stevens in the seventh round) and instead are planning to sign Jameis Winston to a one-year deal (should go through by Tuesday), while also extending Taysom Hill to the tune of a two-year, $21 million deal.

All signs point to Drew Brees, age 41, retiring at the end of this season to join NBC Sports on a lucrative broadcasting deal, meaning the Saints will be in line for a new starting quarterback in 2021. The plan appears to be them continuing to utilize Hill in his swiss army knife role, while also seeing what they have in Winston as the traditional backup quarterback to Brees.

Then, they can make a choice next offseason on Winston, Hill or both to compete for the starting role in 2021. There is also the possibility they draft a quarterback early in the draft next spring.

 Brian Flores, Tua Tagovailoa and the surging Dolphins

To be frank, I love what the Dolphins are doing under Brian Flores.

Last year, many made fun of them early on, clamoring they were “tanking for Tua,” and that they were one of the worst rosters of all time. Flores had jettisoned many of the team’s talented players (Laremy Tunsil, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kenyan Drake, etc.) in favor of future capital, and after a 5-4 finish to a season that began 0-7, Miami used their five picks in the first two rounds over the weekend. Their first pick ended up being the player we thought would go to them for the past nine months.

I’m glad Miami deviated from the same decision they made when they signed Donta Culpepper over an “injured” Drew Brees in the 2006 offseason. Tua brings a lot to the table, including a versatile skill set, strong arm, new-age, dual-threat capability, and most of all, hope. Hope to a franchise and a fan base that needs it. Flores, and this selection, has instilled this.

Additionally, Flores appears to be building a recent-age Patriots-like roster, giving big money to two cornerbacks (Byron Jones, Xavien Howard) capable of playing press man coverage on the outside, before using additional assets on the position in nickel back Noah Igbinoghene at the end of Round 1 (pick No. 30).

Additionally, Miami used a second-round pick on Alabama interior defensive lineman Raekwon Davis, a Belichick-esque selection to rebuild a front seven that already added former Patriots stand-up edge rusher Kyle Van Noy in free agency.

Elsewhere, Miami used a first-round pick (offensive tackle Austin Jackson, No. 18 pick) and second-round selection (guard Robert Hunt, pick No. 39) on offensive lineman to build up their big boy unit. And I even loved the Dolphins selection of Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry in Round 7, a Belichick favorite who could be utilized in a variety of special situations. He may even make the team.

Oh, and Miami has two more first-round picks, and two more in Round 2, in the 2021 draft.

Yeah…I love what they’re doing.

 Team trends revealed in draft strategy 

The draft also revealed some clear strategies from teams. Let’s take a look.

— The Eagles clearly were looking to upgrade their speed at the wide receiver position, with what I think was a good selection of TCU’s Jalen Raegor, a jitterbug-type player with pick No. 21, then following suit with John Hightower (Round 5) and Quez Watkins (Round 6) on Day 3. With all that, DeSean Jackson is also slated to return.

— Despite hiring offensively-driven head coach Matt Rhule, the Panthers used all seven of their selections on defense, starting with pro-ready defensive tackle Derrick Brown with the No. 7 overall pick, and later adding athletic 4-3 EDGE rusher Yetur Gratos-Moss and thumper strong safety Jeremy Chinn in Round 2.

— Despite losing Tom Brady, and a variety of defensive players, Bill Belichick and the Patriots conducted business as they always do, opting to fill needs via free agency (fullback/H-back Danny Vitale, nose tackle Beau Allen, do-it-all safety/linebacker Adrian Phillips) via a familiar and versatility-driven way. Phillips now is perhaps the most versatile piece on a defense that seemingly will be defined by that trait. He has manned up Tyreek Hill with help over top (a la Jonathan Jones) and has been used as a quarterback spy for Lamar Jackson. In the draft, the Patriots added to the theme by selecting D-II prospect Kyle Dugger first in Round 2, who seems to be Patrick Chung’s replacement as a strong safety capable of moving up into the box, or covering athletic tight ends from the slot. New England then added linebacker/EDGE defender Josh Uche, and then Anfernee Jennings in Round 3, who projects as a strong side EDGE defender in the mold of John Simon, but was moved around at Alabama. Despite an offseason of major change, New England seems to be staying the course.

— The Broncos appear to be all in on quarterback Drew Lock. I would, too. Lock went 4-1 as a starter last season, and already found a connection with No. 1, ‘X’ wide receiver Courtland Sutton and athletic tight end Noah Fant. Add in Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon as a soon-to-be two-back attack and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam from this draft, and you have a complete offense for Denver. They still need work on their offensive line, though.

 Best of the rest — Intriguing first round picks 

— The Raiders selection of Alabama burner receiver Henry Ruggs was a classic move that Al Davis would have loved. It was also a classic Jon Gruden move. Any time the Raiders take a blazing receiver, it’s more than acceptable to be skeptical, but I truly do think Ruggs is the best receiver of his class, and fits the Tyreek Hill mold. I think there were better fits for Ruggs to succeed (49ers, Broncos, Eagles) but I still think he’ll have a good career.

— The Chargers selection of Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert (No. 6 overall) was expected but now I’m wondering if they view him as a Day 1 starter, or will they ride with Tyrod Taylor, who hasn’t started a game in almost two years. Whoever it is, the pressure is on. The Chargers have a somewhat-older, win-now roster on team that lacks a significant fan base, and is moving into a new stadium this season.

— Wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (No. 15 pick, Broncos) and CeeDee Lamb (No. 17 pick, Cowboys) fell to spots that are good for each of them. Both will be No. 2 wide receivers with pretty solid teams. There’s some pressure on them, sure, but it’s different from each going to say, the Jets, or Raiders, as a “you better produce now!” No. 1 receiver.

— LSU linebacker Patrick Queen falling to the Ravens was their best-case scenario. Baltimore has built up their front seven that was plowed over by Derrick Henry and the Titans in the playoffs. They already had a superb secondary that rivals New England’s as one of the league’s best. They also did a fantastic job with the rest of their draft. Bravo, Ravens.

 Day 2 value picks 

Considered a deep draft at many positions (particularly at wide receiver), there were some interesting Day 2 selections in Rounds 2 and 3.

The disciples of Bill Belichick made some solid Patriot-like selections in the second round, with the Lions taking Georgia running back D’Andre Swift to split time with Kerryon Johnson, the Giants nabbed versatile Alabama safety Xavier McKinney, and the Dolphins added to a solid draft by beefing up their interior defensive line with Alabama’s Raekwon Davis. All three seemed like fits in New England.

Other solid Day 2 picks in my mind were the Colts adding to their offense with X-receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) and bully running back Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), the Panthers selecting the Kam Chancellor-esque Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), the Patriots snagging the versatile Josh Uche (Michigan, teammate of Chase Winovich) as a Jamie Collins replacement, and the Broncos continuing to build around Drew Lock with selections of receiver K.J. Hamler (Penn State) and top center/guard prospect Lloyd Cushenburry (LSU).

After that, I liked the Saints pick of EDGE rusher Zach Baun (Wisconsin), who slid to Round 3 presumably after a drug test mishap, and Washington’s pick of do-it-all, running back/receiver Antonio Gibson out of Memphis in the third round.

 Where will Cam Newton end up? 

The most fascinating soon-to-be Summer storyline is the potential landing spot for Cam Newton. Some of the more once-obvious fits like the Dolphins and Chargers are presumably out after drafting passers in the first round, and the fact that the Bears traded draft capital for Nick Foles and his contract back when Newton was available also speaks volumes.

At this point, for Newton, we’re looking at two “I guess this kinda make sense?” fits in Washington and the Jaguars, two under-the-radar, possible suitors in the Bills and Broncos, and two “this makes too much sense” wild card fits in the Patriots and Steelers.

In Buffalo and Denver, there are young and near-established franchise quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Drew Lock. It appears the Broncos love Lock, and after his 4-1 record as a starter as a rookie, they have every reason to. I don’t think they’d like to ruffle the feathers by bringing in Newton. Allen has shown his value as a football player at quarterback, but he hasn’t necessarily improved too much as a passer. With heavy assets invested in a wide receiver trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley, and a superb, top-flight defense, the Bills are ready to win the AFC East now, and possibly more than that. Maybe they’d like an insurance plan at quarterback in case Allen has a set back, or doesn’t pan out? Plus, the Bills head coach, Sean McDermott, was Carolina’s defensive coordinator during most of Newton’s tenure in Charlotte.

As for the Patriots, they’d have to open up cap space by cutting veterans (Mohamed Sanu, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Rex Burkhead) or by trading guard Joe Thuney for draft capital in 2021. If they were to open up the space, the idea of a rejuvenated, motivated Newton joining the Patriots on a one-year, prove-it deal, for say, $9 to $12 million sounds appealing. No offense is more effective at using a chameleon-like approach as Josh McDaniels’ bunch in New England, meaning it likely wouldn’t be hard for them to cater their offense toward Newton. Pairing Newton with one of the league’s top defenses would put New England right back on the map. The Patriots passed on all quarterbacks in the draft, but picked up two undrafted rookie free agents at the position, to bring the total to four at the position for them. Still, I smell there’s a chance for Newton to end up in New England once he’s able to come in for a physical, and once the Patriots open up some cap space. Vegas seems to agree. 

But more level-headed minds, and usually-locked-in reporters don’t seem to agree. The Athletic’s Jeff Howe remains adamant through his source, that the Patriots continue to express zero interest in Newton. Still, call it a hunch, or maybe overly-wishful thinking, but I think Newton to the Patriots is a situation that bears monitoring, maybe even well into the summer.

The Steelers have built a solid defense and may be in need of another quarterback in 2021. This seems like the end of the road for 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. I thought Jalen Hurts would have been a good fit for Pittsburgh in Round 2, but he wound up on Pennsylvania’s other NFL franchise. If Newton can be happy in a backup role, with a chance to take over in 2021, I think Pittsburgh would be a good fit.

Tom Brady vs Titans

NFL Friday Morning Madness: State of the Patriots + Divisional Round Preview

A week removed from the Patriots’ disappointing end to their 2019 season comes with perspective.

Since the loss, Tom Brady offered a reflective Instagram post (see below), special teams coordinator (and WR coach) Joe Judge left to become head coach of the New York Giants, and rumors have Brady leaving to play for the Los Angeles Chargers have already been discussed at a nauseating state. Not to mention, Josh McDaniels could be the Browns’ next head coach.

But for those who want the most realistic answers, as opposed to the most exciting (and absurd), listen up.

*******

It doesn’t take a football expert to realize the major problem with this season’s Patriots squad.

It was the offense.

Looking further, there were three problems with the unit, and this is where I put the blame:

Lack of talent in pass-catching group (WR, TE) — 60%

Offensive line/blocking – Inconsistency, retirement/injuries (Rob Gronkowski, David Andrews, James Develin) — 25%

Tom Brady’s decline due to age — 15%

Yes, Brady — who will turn 43 in August — is in a decline, but it’s more of a dip likened to slowly sliding down a small, snow-covered hill slowly — something you’d let your toddler do. It’s not a steep cliff, per se. Not yet.

His NFL MVP year in 2017 may be his last prime year, but of course, that was his last year with top-tier weapons in last-year-of-his-prime Rob Gronkowski and speedy deep threat Brandin Cooks.

Brady made due in 2018, even going score for score with Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs (on the road) in the AFC title game, with an over-the-hill Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett as his outside receivers.

Then came this season.

The coming and going of Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas are well-documented.

Although the Patriots could have used the latter two, Brown is the only one who truly would have transformed this offense. Despite mostly living and dying in the middle of the field post-Randy Moss, Brady was in desperate need of a receiver that could create separation and become a threat on the outside. Brown is versatile enough to line up all over the field, and win anywhere, but he failed to stay in line.

Had Brown been there, teams would have thought twice about playing man coverage across the board, but instead, New England’s pass catchers ranked 32nd (dead last) in average separation per pass play, and were second in the league in drops (34).

Mohammed Sanu — acquired from the Falcons for a second-round pick — and rookie N’Keal Harry — 2019 first-round pick — certainly attributed to those stats. Judging by his speed, Sanu’s days of being starting receiver seem over, and Harry failed to grasp New England’s playbook, or a rapport with Brady, after missing the first half of the season.

New England was also in need of any semblance of pass-catching and run-blocking at the tight end position. They got virtually none in 39-year-old Ben Watson and backup-level Matt LaCosse.

The offensive line also struggled at times before Isaiah Wynn returned from injury to put a struggling Marshall Newhouse to the bench. But struggles could also be attributed to a horrible down year from Shaq Mason after he had improved his pass blocking in 2018. The loss of David Andrews at center also hurt, and Marcus Cannon showed his age at times. Only Joe Thuney (who is now a free agent) played consistently well.

The run blocking also failed to find it’s footing with the losses of Andrews, Gronkowski and full back James Develin leading the way. The unit did find a rythmn in late December, just like last season. Sony Michel seems unworthy of a first-round pick, but he does have a knack for coming through and running hard in December and January. That counts for something.

But what now? The Patriots are scheduled to have roughly $49 million in cap space, and 12 picks in the draft.

Tom Brady should be back on a masked one-year deal that has one or two future years that serve only to mitigate Brady’s cap hit in 2020. But yes, Brady will be back, and he should.

The Patriots made their bed when they traded Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco for a second-round pick because Brady outlasted him.

Now, with little ammo to move up to select a top-tier passer in the draft, and only soon-to-be second-year man Jarrett Stidham on the roster, there is no real replacement for Brady on the horizon.

Even the slew of available or semi-available quarterbacks this offseason — Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, — is nothing to be optimistic about, if New England is indeed hoping to continue as a consistent Super Bowl contender with no major rebuilding phase.

Re-signing Brady is the best for both the GOAT and Bill Belichick’s team.

New England is in need of an aggressive re-tooling this offseason, but it can be done. Pass catchers like A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper are expected to hit free agency, and pass catchers such as O.J. Howard, Brandin Cooks and maybe even Odell Beckham Jr. may be available via trade.

Barring something unusual in Belichick’s usual draft strategy, New England’s higher-than-usual slot of the No. 23 pick in the first round will not stay as is. The Patriots are more liable to trade down, or trade away the pick for help on offense — Odell Beckham Jr. should be their main target.

On top of several high-profile moves that can be made, 34-year-old Danny Amendola hits free agency as a possible reliable target for Brady. Amendola has shown flashes in Miami and Detroit the last two seasons, and could look to return to New England for one last run.

Then there’s Gronkowski. Although he probably won’t return, the chance is always there.

Still, Brady will have to cooperate to help New England here. He’ll first have to be willing to take slightly less money than he deserves. A deal that nets him around $25 million a year should be reasonable. He deserves more, but has to take less money if he indeed wants help in the form of pass-catching personnel.

Second, he’ll have to sign his deal before March 18th to avoid New England taking on an additional $13.5 million cap hit due to his last deal signed last offseason.

Brady’s recent Instagram post (I know, speculation), Robert Kraft’s love for him, and Bill Belichick’s lack of other options at quarterback should make this deal work.

New England could also lose Thuney and several defensive pieces — Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Jason McCourty, Danny Shelton — could be on the move. New England should at least look to retain McCourty and special teams ace Matthew Slater for perhaps one more season each.

The defense did its part in 2019, and that was likely their peak, with this veteran group. Chase Winovich can perhaps fill Van Noy’s role and New England’s cornerback situation — Stephon Gilmore (No. 1 CB), J.C. Jackson (No. 2 CB) and Jonathan Jones (slot) should hit its position group peak in 2020, but the unit as a whole will take a dip.

The offense will need to step up. They’ll need additional personnel to do that, and perhaps familiarity at offensive coordinator. If McDaniels leaves for Cleveland, former wide receivers coach Chad O’Shea should be brought in after his one-year stint as Miami’s offensive coordinator.

The plan is in place for the Patriots to get back to their usual ways in 2020. Despite the horrid end to their season, the end is not yet here. But it’s close.

But as Brady said, he “still has more to prove.” He’s just going to need some help.

Your move, Patriots.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW

NFL Divisional Playoff logo

 

Fresh off one of the more exciting (and possibly telling) Wild Card rounds in years, the NFL’s divisional round poses intrigue in its own right.

The AFC champion will feature a quarterback not named Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisbeger for the firs time in 17 years. Soon-to-be-named 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, and college-standout-turned-pro Deshaun Watson represent the changing of the guard, and probably future of the position and the AFC.

The NFC features a matchup between two of the best quarterbacks of the past decade in Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, while Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins face off in the Kyle Shanahan Bowl, which doubles as a contest between the two most complete remaining teams outside of Baltimore.

There’s a lot to uncover. Here’s a preview — and prediction — for each game.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (No. 6 seed. 11-6) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (No. 1 seed, 13-3) — Saturday 4:35pm ET, NBC

Minnesota Vikings logo     San Francisco 49ers logo

Kirk Cousins defied the odds in picking up the biggest win of his career last week in New Orleans. The Vikings, a talented team in their own right, took care of what may be the second-most talented bunch of the NFC, with Minnesota being the third. The first? That would be the 49ers.

The abundance of first-round picks along the defensive line over the years was topped off by the monster acquisitions of Dee Ford and rookie Nick Bosa this offseason. Those two on the edge, paired with the underrated DeForest Buckner in the interior makes for the best defensive line in football. Expect this group to get after Cousins.

On offense, Jimmy Garoppolo has been much better in the second half of the season than he was in the first (probably because of his ACL tear in 2018), and that should continue here, albeit a talented Minnesota defense. Hitting on both midseason acquisition Emmanuel Sanders and rookie second-round pick Deebo Samuel at receiver has been huge, and having George Kittle is even bigger. Kittle is the both the best pass-catching and blocking tight end in football, and even Minnesota’s Harrison Smith will have trouble corralling him.

San Francisco will work best both working the running game and play-action throws into the mix, to fend off a Minnesota pass rush of Everson Griffen and Daniele Hunter, that got after Drew Brees last week.

Former All-pro cornerback Xavier Rhodes has struggled some the past two seasons, so if Minnesota opts to use him on Sanders, the latter should have some success using his quickness against the larger Rhodes.

Minnesota will find ways to fend off San Francisco’s pass rush by running Dalvin Cook like they did last week in New Orleans. They should have some success. But Kyle Shanahan’s team will score, and Minnesota will look to Kirk Cousins to match. Richard Sherman battling Adam Thielen will be great theatre, but it’s Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph — along with Cousins — that will have to win the game for Minnesota.

The Vikings play well once more, but Jimmy G’s 49ers are up to the task. San Francisco wins a close contest via long-sustaining drives late and one key turnover forced by the pass rush.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Vikings 24

 

TENNESSEE TITANS (No. 6 seed. 10-7) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (No. 1 seed, 14-2) — Saturday 8:15pm ET, CBS

        

After bowling over the Patriots’ top-ranked defense for 184 yards and a score — on 34 carries! — Derrick Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher this season, has now garnered 1,080 yards on the ground in just the last seven games.

Ryan Tannehill’s performance last week — 8 for 15, 72 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT — left much to be desired. Even if Henry is to continue his dominant ways versus Baltimore, Tannehill will have to play better to offset what should be a ready-for-action explosion of Lamar Jackson’s offense.

The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since before Christmas, and should be chomping at the bit to shake off the possible rust. The health of Mark Ingram and Mark Andrews will play a major role in just how potent Baltimore’s attack is. So will the discipline and remaining spunk in the Titans’ defensive tank.

Jurrell Casey will do his best to clog up the middle lanes, but next-line-of-defense playmakers like rookie linebacker Rashaan Evans, and EDGE defender Harold Landry will need to be at their best in hopes of somewhat corralling Lamar.

Safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccarro have also spent a lot of time cheating up to the line of scrimmage to help with their rush defense. They should continue that this week, while also being mindful of the short-middle in the passing game. A muddled middle with a way of slowing down the rushing attack would force Lamar to throw outside the numbers to the likes of Hollywood Brown and Willie Snead.

Technically, Tennessee has a defense that could theoretically slow down the soon-to-be NFL MVP, but listing that here is not the same as them executing.

And Baltimore’s aggressive defensive backfield consisting of Earl Thomas, Marlon Humprhey and Marcus Peters will come in to play here, probably to the detriment of Tannehill.

If the Titans can chew the clock and score touchdowns behind Henry and the occasional Tannehill play-action pass, while also holding Baltimore to under 24 points, then they have a shot.

But that seems too much to ask.

Prediction: Ravens 26, Titans 16 

 

HOUSTON TEXANS (No. 4 seed. 11-6) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (No. 2 seed, 12-4) — Sunday 3:05pm ET, CBS

Houston Texans logo            Kansas City Chiefs logo

In a game in which only Patriots and Bears fans (check out the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft) may attest to being exciting, two of the most supernatural QBs will go at it in Kansas City.

Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.

Both are liable to carry their team to 30-plus point performances. But Patrick Mahomes really doesn’t have to, at least not by himself. Deep threat Tyreek Hill and ‘Y’ receiver/tight end Travis Kelce supply him with one of the best one-two punches on offense. And on defense, Kansas City’s unit has adjusted to first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes after a rocky start.

Watson has help in DeAndre Hopkins, but he’ll need fellow former first-round pick Will Fuller to acompany him on the outside. Fuller is an immaculate deep threat, if not much else. And his presence will help ease attention on Hopkins, who could see double teams, and Kenny Stills, who would maybe see Tyrann Mathieu in the slot — Mathieu has allowed a league-low 40.7 passer rating in the slot since Week 10, according to Pro Football Focus.

Houston will need to pressure Mahomes to even have a shot at winning, and although they finished the year 26th in that category (31 sacks), J.J. Watt’s return should give them more confidence there.

Houston’s defense has some major holes, but Bradley Roby isn’t one of them. The former first-round pick from Denver has played with controlled aggression, and has basically taken over for Marcus Peters as perhaps the best aggressive-style cornerback (in terms of taking chances) the past month. Will they opt to use him on Sammy Watkins, with a possible shift to man coverage on Kelce on key downs? And even then, Hill is liable to beat them deep.

Mahomes has not looked as sharp since returning from injury midseason, but he’s slowly gotten better as he has healed. But the Chiefs have been okay behind a suddenly-superb defense that should be able to stop any full-throttle plans by Houston to run out the clock with Carlos Hyde. So even though the Texans won in Kansas City (31-24) back in October behind 192 rushing yards, they are unlikely to repeat that here. Kansas City will force Houston into a shootout where they will tee off on Watson with their pass rush. And judging by  Buffalo’s seven sacks versus them last week, they’ll be able to do that.

Kansas City wins behind a few big plays on offense, and a 5-sack performance on Watson. If there is to be one blowout this week, this is the game.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Texans 17

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (No. 4 seed. 12-5) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (No. 2 seed, 13-3) — Sunday 6:40pm ET, FOX

Seattle Seahawks logo       Green Bay Packers logo

On Sunday night, two future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks will square off in the postseason for the first time since Russell Wilson and the Legion-of-Boom Seahawks came back to beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in an overtime contest in Seattle that sent the Seahawks to the Super Bowl.

Although much has changed since then, it will be Wilson versus Rodgers once more, but this time in Lambeau Field.

The weather in Green Bay on Sunday is supposed to hover around 20 degrees, with partly sunny weather, but that’s after Green Bay is expecting to hire over 700 shovelers on Sunday morning to clear out what could be as much as 10 inches of snow for the night before. Regardless, it will be cold.

The frigid weather would benefit a fully-healthy Seattle, who’s top back — Chris Carson — rushed for 1,230 yards this season. But Carson and his next two backups, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise are all out, leaving the Seahawks with Marshawn Lynch, whom they picked up before Week 17.

Looking over at Lynch on the Seattle sideline may give Rodgers enough jolt to remember the NFC title game that got away form him in Seattle. He’ll want this one. But the Packers have struggled at times on offense this season behind rookie head coach Matt LeFleur’s scheme. In Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones, the Packers have two top-tier weapons, but there’s not much after that, giving Seattle an easier time to game plan. The Seahawks’ best bet is to neutralize Jones on the ground, and then to hope for a fine performance from Jadeveon Clowney on the edge. Clowney has been inconsistent in his first season in Seattle, but at times has taken over games, showcasing why they brought him in.

Green Bay’s improved defense should be able to hold Seattle’s rushing attack down, meaning Wilson will likely run for his life throughout the game, considering Green Bay’s improved pass rush with the Smith’s — Zadarius and Preston.

But this is where Wilson thrives, when all the chips are down. Although rookie sensation D.K. Metcalf may struggle to separate versus Green Bay’s No. 1 cornerback, Jaire Alexander, Tyler Lockett should be able to find some success working out of the slot, even against 36-year-old stalwart Tramon Williams, who has been awesome this season.

The play of Seattle’s offensive line will be key here, but Wilson will extend plays on his own anyhow. He always does.

Hoping to avenge a loss that haunts him, and with the weather and home crowd backing him, this should be a game where Rodgers leads Green Bay to victory. Especially considering Seattle’s injury situation and incomplete roster.

But this feels like the last win in a heroic season for Russell Wilson, who has carried teams better than any other quarterback the past few seasons, and has been specifically good this season, even with somewhat of a December swoon. Wilson gets it done, and surprisingly gets a little help from his defense, and missed opportunities by the Packers’ offense.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Packers 17

 

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

LSU logo         CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 2020 LOGO          Clemson logo

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler predicts double digit underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft after this game, detailing just how much talent will be on the field.

That stat doesn’t include redshirt senior Joe Burrow, who has maxed out his college eligibility to his final game, which could give him the perfect send-off — a National Championship.

The Heisman Trophy winner will look toward main target Justin Jefferson early and often, which should result in points. Although Clemson is heavily talented, LSU is the better team. Clemson should figure out a way to slow LSU, which is something that no team has done this season, but the Tigers will adjust and retaliate.

But the thing about Clemson is, they’re not scared. They have the experience, as shown by their comeback win over Ohio State in their CFP Semifinal victory. True Sophomore Trevor Lawrence is undefeated as a starter (25-0) and Clemson enters the contest not only as the defending National champions, but as a team with an 29-game winning streak.

Even against a more talented LSU squad that features a litany of pro talent on defense, Lawrence will find ways to score. Expect the game to be a back-and-forth affair with both teams scoring in the final minutes.

I have a feeling that Burrow’s season for the ages ends in him slaying Clemson, before heading to the Cincinnati Bengals as the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft this spring.

Prediction: LSU 35, Clemson 31