Tag: Rob Gronkowski

Tom Brady -- The Return

NFL Tuesday Morning Madness Week 4: Three leftover thoughts on Brady-Belichick, Mac Jones & Bucs-Pats

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

An hour or two after an emotional game that bookended a taxing, emotional week, Tom Brady summed up what we all expected was the case for him.

“I’m tired” the seven-time Super Bowl champion, and former Patriot, told NBC Sports‘ Peter King.

“I’m really tired. For a regular-season game, that was pretty intense…God is it hard to come in here and win a football game.”

The defending champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1), had withstood a gutsy (albeit erratic) performance from the New England Patriots (1-3), a team once known for their Super Bowl stardom, now rebuilding, and searching for a better identity.

The final score — Bucs 19, Pats 17.

Here are three takeaways from the conclusion of perhaps the most anticipated regular season game in NFL history:

— The embrace between Tom Brady and the Patriots’ fans and the organization went as well as it could have. From the outpouring of love from fans leading up to the game, pre-game, while Brady broke the all-time passing yards mark (with previous record-holder Drew Brees in attendance) and after the game, to Brady’s embrace with former teammates, Josh McDaniels (before and after the game), Robert Kraft, and yes, even Bill Belichick, for a 23-minute conversation in the Tampa locker room, following the game. Everything went smoothly. It was a great moment.

“Very emotional week,” Brady said to the press afterward. “These guys are like my brothers.”

Brady did his best to remain poised throughout the contest. Overall, he made great decisions and floated some gorgeous passes later in the game as he settled into a contest surrounded by hoopla. But it was obvious from the start, Brady was emotional, and the overall tone and weirdness of the game was omnipresent throughout the battle.

But for all the talk over what transpired over the past few years, it appears Patriots fans can rest easy, that Tom still appreciates his time with New England, forever his football home.

“I’ll be part of this community for a long time…When it’s all said and done, and I retire, you know, I’ll be around, and they’ll get a chance to see more of me” Brady told NBC’s Michelle Tafoya after the game.

Prior to the game, Robert Kraft floated the idea of Brady returning post-career for what would be a fitting ceremony that should, and in all likelihood will happen.

“In the end, I hope and believe he’ll come back here and we’ll give him his red jacket, and he’ll retire a Patriot,” Kraft told Willie McGinest and Kay Adams in an NFL Network interview prior to the game. 

Brady somewhat deflected the notion after the game, seemingly out of respect for the Bucs’ organization, their fan base, and his current obligation to focus in on his current team.

“Are you offering me a one-day contract or did he offer me that?,” Brady said to the media, jokingly, when asked about the scenario after the game.

“He didn’t offer me that, so…I still got some time left with the Bucs, and like I said, really enjoying that. We got a lot to accomplish this year. It’s a tough challenging year. It’s a marathon of a season. It’s only four games in. There is a lot football to be played. It feels good to win on the road, so happy we did that.”

Still, all night, it was clear that Brady is still emotionally invested in the Patriots organization and the New England fans, and that aspect of ‘The Return’ was perfectly executed by all involved. Bravo.

— In the matchup of Brady vs Belichick, the Patriots coach devised a perfectly-schemed game plan versus the Buccaneers’ offense, that was executed well enough for the Patriots to win. I’ll look at the All-22 film to produce my first defensive film review piece of the season for Patriots Wire, if the film is out in time this week, so look out for that, since we’ll know more then, but it appeared New England stuck with pretty clear man-coverage assignments (J.C. Jackson on Mike Evans, Jalen Mills and Chris Godwin, Jonathan Jones and Antonio Brown) with a mixture of middle-of-the-field zone coverage in the deep, intermediate and shallow parts of the field, via safeties, linebackers and on-the-line rushers dropping back into coverage. On clear passing downs, Belichick was able to mask his looks with several “amoeba” formations with most rushers standing in front of the Bucs’ O-line, moving around pre-snap to disguise who was rushing, and who was dropping back into coverage.

Matthew Judon (one sack, two QB hits, four hurries, four run stuffs, two tackles for loss), the only big-ticket 2021 free-agent signing consistently producing for Belichick, was particularly effective, bulldozing past members of Tampa’s stout offensive line at times, while also getting to Brady with his speed and athleticism at other times, and doing his best on the edge in run defense. Jalen Mills was particularly stout on Godwin (three catches, 55 yards) and the Patriots’ zone brackets in general looked like they did an awesome job of cutting off Tampa’s in-breaking routes in the intermediate part of the field.

The Patriots played a ton of Big Nickel and Big Dime looks with Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger each playing pretty well.

In all, Brady’s stat line (22-of-43, 269 yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, 55.3 Total QBR) is exactly what you want if you’re the Patriots. Without Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate had an ugly, key drop, and Antonio Brown couldn’t hang on to a beautiful Brady long-ball for a go-ahead touchdown late, but really, the Patriots defense played well enough to win this game.

This New England defense is a top-tier unit in the league, defensively, and they may have Stephon Gilmore returning soon.

— Mac Jones almost had his moment. In a weird, old-school-feeling Giants-Patriots, Eli Manning-Brady era-looking contest, the Patriots were in position to win, but just couldn’t pull it off. Alas, two turnovers, some sloppy play, more letdowns in got-to-have-it-moments (an all too familiar part of the Patriots identity since late 2019) included a failed attempt to score a touchdown to take a 21-16 lead while inside the 10-yard-line late in the fourth quarter, instead settling for a field goal, their last points of the game. There were several moments to be dissected, including Belichick conservatively opting not to trust Mac Jones on a 4th-and-2 in Tampa territory late at the end of the first half, and then again on a 4th-and-3 in the final minute of the game, instead opting for a 56-yard Nick Folk field goal attempt in the pouring rain, in which Folk heroically almost came through with one of the great kicks of all time, that ultimately hit the left upright with a loud “thud.”

A thud, is sort of what the 2021 Patriots are at this point. There have been comparisons to this team and the 2001 Patriots, as the franchise begins anew under Mac Jones. And heck, that team started 1-3 before eventually winning the Super Bowl. But that team, a well-disciplined bunch, came through when it mattered. There would be no game-winning kick (a la Adam Vinatieri) on this night, just as there would be no game-winning drive. New England is now 1-3 and 0-3 at home, with two gut-wrenching losses to the Dolphins (Damien Harris’ late fumble sealed it) and now, the Bucs.

Still, Mac Jones played well enough to win this game, and has shown a lot of promise.

The rookie completed 19 consecutive passes in a period in the second half, which included a go-ahead touchdown drive culminating in a throwing score to Jonnu Smith, that saw Jones go 7-of-7 on that drive to give New England the 14-13 lead.

Really, Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, Mac Jones and the defense all played well enough to win this game, which is probably why this loss stings so much for New England.

The potential is there, even with Jones and the offense going just 2-for-9 on third down conversions, and Jones still being pressured by pass rushers (4 sacks, 12 QB hits on Jones by Tampa on Sunday), due to a disappointing O-line, which was met with Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ famous blitz-heavy scheme. The rookie also overcame the Patriots absolutely abysmal rushing performance, which saw the team run for -1 yards on eight carries versus Tampa’s top-ranked rushing defense, led by monster interior defenders Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh.

When given the time to throw, Mac Jones (31-of-40, 275 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) has proven more than capable, as the Patriots are beginning to find at least a small groove in spreading defenses out in empty, shotgun looks. Jakobi Meyers (eight catches, 70 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (five catches, 58 yards) are beginning to have their moments, but the team is still not getting enough out of their two tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, despite their two short touchdown catches on Sunday.

Still, there are brilliant flashes with Jones operations a Patriots/Brady-style offense.

Bourne called Jones a “baby Tom” after the game, and Tom Brady and several other Buccaneers praised the Patriots quarterback.

“I feel like he’s gonna be a good quarterback in this league,” Tampa star linebacker Devin White said of Jones postgame.

“He was poised. We hit him a lot of times and he stayed in the scheme and moved the ball for them when he had to move the ball for them.”

For now, as he learns behind a caving offensive line, a disappointing running game and the lack of a true No. 1 pass catcher, Jones will still learn a ton, find his resolve, and continue to improve. So far, he looks the part of a franchise quarterback.

THE BETTER HALF

1. Buffalo Bills (3-1) (Last week: 4). As each week passes, their Week 1 loss to the Steelers continues to be more of an aberration. They are the best team in football right now.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) (Last week: 2). Their secondary is an absolute mess right now, but a favorable upcoming schedule should help keep them afloat near the top of the NFC.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-0) (Last week: 7). Kliff Kingsbury’s bunch is soaring after a month. They are the last remaining undefeated team. That was a helluva win over the Rams in Los Angeles. Is their defense good enough for them to be a contender this season? Will their offense keep this up all year?

4. Los Angeles Rams (3-1) (Last week: 1). They didn’t get up for their home match versus Arizona like they did versus the Bucs. They’re still the NFC West favorite. They have a quick turnaround for a game in Seattle on Thursday.

5. Cleveland Browns (3-1) (Last week: 3). They’re one of the most talented teams in the league, but they aren’t quite playing like it, week to week. They need to hit their stride.

6. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) (Last week: 5). That was a telling win in Denver. That’s 43 straight 100-yard rushing games for the Ravens as a team, which ties an NFL record.

7. Green Bay Packers (3-1) (Last week: 8). They’re coming along after that ugly Week 1 loss to New Orleans. Aaron Rodgers’ bunch are a Super Bowl contender, once more.

8. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) (Last week: 10). They’re tied for second in points per game (33.5) and are ranked 31st in points per game allowed (31.3). That sounds about right.

9. Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) (Last week: 15). Justin Herbert already looks like one of the best quarterbacks in football, and Brandon Staley may be an early Coach of the Year candidate. But, these are the Chargers. They find ways to disappoint. Will they buck the trend this year? They’re next three games: versus Browns, at Ravens, versus Patriots. That’s tough.

10. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) (Last week: 16). They have a top-tier offense, and their defense, although not great, has enough blue-chippers (Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs) to make some plays.

11. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) (Last week: 8). Their defense isn’t great, which puts a lot of pressure on Derek Carr and the offense.

12. Seattle Seahawks (2-2) (Last week: NR). They weren’t going to just lie down and fall to 1-3. That was a big win.

13. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (Last week: 9). Trey Lance was my favorite quarterback coming into the 2021 NFL Draft. He still is. But even I think it may be too soon for him to take full control of the offense. Let’s see if Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy enough to play on Sunday.

14. Tennessee Titans (2-2) (Last week: 11). That was an ugly overtime loss to the Jets in New York. They did fight back though. They play down to their competition too much.

15. Carolina Panthers (3-1) (Last week: 12). That was a tough loss in Dallas. Their defense is legitimately talented, but they’re not quite the league’s No. 1 unit. Sam Darnold has been great, though, at quarterback.

16. Denver Broncos (3-1) (Last week: 13). A win there over Baltimore would have been huge. Now, they’re stuck up top the AFC West in that early-season logjam.

Next Up: New Orleans, Cincinnati, New England, Washington, Minnesota/Indianapolis

Derrick Henry vs Seahawks

NFL Monday Morning Madness Week 2: Drama-filled Sunday provides extra excitment

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

Week 2 in the NFL this season had a flair for the dramatic, with the late afternoon window in particular featuring wild finishes out west in Los Angeles, Arizona and Seattle. There’s still a few weeks left to play before any rash conclusions or predictions can be made, as many call September the “extended preseason.”

The Cowboys and Chargers in recent years are known for their knack of blowing big games, but each team was fairly competent in a close contest that ended in a game-winning, 56-yard field goal by Dallas kicker Greg Zuerlien.

Dak Prescott delivered in the fourth quarter for the second-straight week, and the Cowboys came away with a win this time around.

In Arizona, Kyler Murray added five more touchdowns, bringing his total to nine on the season, and firmly placing him near the top of any way-too-early MVP talk, along with Tom Brady.

But the Cardinals were lucky to come away with a win, as Kirk Cousins marched the Vikings down into field goal territory late, but Minnesota lost on a missed game-winning 37-yard field goal attempt from Greg Joseph, giving Arizona a 34-33 win, and allowing them to keep pace with better clubs in the Rams and 49ers.

The Titans and Seahawks seemed destined to play a wacky, down-to-the-wire game. The DNA of both teams usually calls for multiple double-digit fourth-quarter comebacks and comparable, gut-wrenching losses throughout the season. Sunday’s game in Tennessee didn’t disappoint, with Tennessee rallying from down 30-16 late to win 33-30 in overtime.

Leading the effort was the league’s premier bell-cow back, Derrick Henry, who amassed 237 total yards and three rushing touchdowns on 41 touches (35 carries). Henry remains one of the league’s toughest players to stop, and Seattle learned the hard way as Henry shook off a rough performance versus Arizona, in helping the Titans to a much-needed road win.

The late window, equipped with cheering fans, brilliant announcing, excitement and heartbreak felt like something we haven’t seen since the 2019 season.

Then, all those games were topped, by the Sunday night affair in Baltimore.

The Chiefs led 35-24 late before Lamar Jackson (16 carries, 107 rush yards, three total TDs) ran his way to a 36-35 lead that Baltimore held, thanks to their rookie first-round pick EDGE defender, Odafe Oweh, who stripped Kansas City running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire late after Patrick Mahomes drove them down in game-winning field goal range.

The Ravens averaged 6.1 yards per carry, and ran for 251 yards in total against a still-soft-up-the-middle Chiefs defense that relies heavily on their all-time great offense. They got burned today, but even with their flaws, they remain Super Bowl material.

Baltimore is beginning what could be a tough season-long race with the Cleveland Browns for the AFC North crown.

COVER 2

(Throughout the season, I’ll include this segment as a side-by-side form of ‘double coverage’ (pun intended) of both Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots, and Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.)

PATRIOTS 25, JETS 6

In typical Bill Belichick-versus-rookie quarterback fashion, the Patriots defense gave Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson a tough time, forcing the No. 2 overall pick into four interceptions, some ghastly, in a solid road win in the AFC East for New England. Defensively, J.C. Jackson (two interceptions) and Jonathan Jones were particularly impressive in coverage, and Adrian Phillips and Ja’Whaun Bentley stood out on the TV tape as tough, gritty players who seemingly have benefited from experience in the system, and seemed primed to take a leap.

On offense, Mac Jones (28.4 Total QBR to Wilson’s 8.7) had a more tame (and maybe even uninspiring) performance than his overly-competent (for a rookie) NFL debut versus the Dolphins. The Jets defense held Jones and the passing game in check for much of the game, as Jones often looked for his checkdowns an held the ball for far too long on other occasions. Hunter Henry grabbed a 32-yard catch downfield on a schemed play-action shot that saw him wide open, but other than that, he and fellow newcomer tight end Jonnu Smith were once again quiet. The Patriots leader in both receptions (6) and receiving yards (45) was pass-catching running back James White. New England has a solid blueprint as a top-tier defense and running game, but the passing offense needs to be more than just adequate if they are to compete with the NFL’s best. Rest assured, Mac Jones will improve as he gains more NFL experience.

BUCCANEERS 48, FALCONS 25

Watching Tom Brady throw five more touchdown passes on Sunday versus Atlanta make you wonder: Is this the best he’s ever played? His physical peak has passed, yes, but he’s still displaying unbelievable arm talent at his age (44), and statistically, he could be headed for a 2007-level of dominance, with a 2007-esque dominant team to boot.

Tampa has won a franchise-record 10 straight games dating back to 10 months ago (November 2020), which includes the organization’s second Super Bowl title (Brady’s seventh). Brady, himself, has thrown for 17 touchdown passes in his last four games, and Rob Gronkowski, perhaps his favorite passing target ever, has caught two touchdowns from Brady in each of his last three games, dating back to Super Bowl 55.

This team is absolutely loaded, but they’ll face a big, big test this week in Los Angeles versus the Rams. This is a possible NFC Championship Game preview. Can the Bucs keep Brady upright versus Aaron Donald and that inside pressure-creating pass rush?

THE BETTER HALF

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) (Last week: 1). When all is said and done, will Tom Brady-to-Rob Gronkowski be the best, and most iconic passer-pass catcher combo in league history?

2. Los Angeles Rams (2-0). (Last week: 3). They showed their resolve by winning a wild back-and-forth affair in Indianapolis in the early window. Next up: Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. We’ll learn a bit next week.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) (Last week: 2). That offense masks a lot of issues, and if they don’t fumble late, it would have been much of the same on Sunday night. But they gave up an 11-point lead late to a team that ran the ball to re-take the lead, and win. Kansas City doesn’t need to have a Top-10 defense to win the Super Bowl, but the unit can’t be that bad.

4. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) (Last week: 7). This is a team that will figure it out, and become much better as the season goes along. They’re still winning while they learn, though. That’s scary.

5. Cleveland Browns (1-1) (Last week: 6). They let the pesky Texans hang around for far too long, but a win is a win.

6. Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (Last week: 10). The fourth time’s the charm for Lamar Jackson, who finally defeated Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. Baltimore has some defensive woes and mental lapses (occasional bad tackling, mistakes, etc.) to fix, but they are a real threat in the AFC.

7. Buffalo Bills (1-1) (Last week: 11). They took advantage of Tua leaving early, punishing the Dolphins 35-0. They were going to win this game no matter what.

8. Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) (Last week: NR). When he’s on, Derek Carr is one of the best pure passers in the league. That was on display in his de-facto game-clinching deep-heave TD pass to Henry Ruggs to beat Pittsburgh.

9. Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (Last week: 8). They are one of the league’s most exciting teams, and are led by one of the league’s most exciting players in Kyler Murray.

10. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) (Last week: 4). We mentioned Brady-to-Gronk earlier in here, but Russell Wilson to Tyler Lockett is another long-time dependable duo. They don’t get enough credit as a dangerous pairing. But still, that was a devastating loss for the Seahawks. That can’t happen.

11. New England Patriots (1-1) (Last week: 13). They’ll improve on offense as the season goes along. We’re still learning a lot about this team. Their defense is scary good.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) (Last week: 5). Their defense is still solid. They missed T.J. Watt late in this game. Their offense, on the other hand, is a mess. They’ll have to lean on Najee Harris, their rookie running back.

13. Denver Broncos (2-0) (Last week: 14). The Broncos are quietly a home win over the lowly Jets from beginning the season at 3-0.

14. Tennessee Titans (1-1) (Last week: NR). They badly needed that win. Derrick Henry is still a force to be reckoned with.

15. Carolina Panthers (2-0) (Last week: NR). Could their defense actually be one of the league’s better units? Also, Sam Darnold looks comfortable here.

16. Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (Last week: NR). Their offense is a machine. Dak Prescott may be enough for Dallas to take the NFC East this year.

Next Up: Miami, New Orleans, Green Bay, L.A. Chargers, Washington

Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa

Brent’s Extra Points: 2020 NFL Draft Review + Analyzing Gronk trade

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

Because of the litany of reports, mock drafts and over-speculation geared toward the NFL Draft, which remains sort of a Christmas Day for many (it’s fun!), I decided to skip out on a mock draft piece for the second straight year. Instead, I tweeted out my mock and decided to put together this more-useful draft recap, equipped with some of the league’s biggest storylines from the past week.

This year, the usual intrigue of the draft was maximized by the actual logistics and broadcast of the event itself, as COVID-19 has put a halt on our lives.

Because of our state, this “virtual” draft expectedly became the most-watched ever, drawing in a first-night record of over 15.6 million viewers across broadcast, cable and digital streaming via ABC, ESPN and NFL Network (The previous high for Round 1 was 12.4 million viewers in 2014) and reaching a record total weekend viewership of over 55 million (up 35 percent from last year).

But roughly 48 hours before the NFL Draft at its most interesting state, the unprecedented intrigue over the league’s event was temporarily hijacked by league news of Rob Gronkowski’s return to the league to play with Tom Brady on the Tampa Bay Buccaneeers.

If you scroll down, you’ll see that I tackle some of the biggest post-draft topics, with analysis stemming from Day 1 to Day 2selections, and some thoughts on Cam Newton and some of the remaining free agents, but first, lets examine the Gronk trade and the Buccaneers’ draft selections.

 What are the takeaways from the Gronk return-and-trade, Buccaneers draft?

There are many takes swirling around about Brady and Gronkowski scheming together after Super Bowl 53 for Gronk to retire, avoid another year under Bill Belichick, and then return to force a trade once Brady signed with his new team a year later. Although I won’t fully dismiss those claims, I won’t get into that. Although Belichick’s program can be demanding, and it certainly appears it became taxing for Brady and Gronk down the stretch, I believe the respect between all three of them remains and will be discussed among them after all all parties are retired from the sport. As it is, both Brady and Gronk have now praised Belichick, even if lightly, in their introductory conferences with Tampa. Many are trying to twist the knife on Patriots nation, but the fact of the matter is that New England received 20 years from Brady, nine from Gronkowski, and Robert Kraft’s fanbase was able to root for the best quarterback (and player) and tight end in NFL history, all while celebrating six Super Bowl championships. The sixth Super Bowl title also offsets any revisionist talk of the Patriots ultimately not trading Gronkowski to Detroit for a haul of premium picks in 2018. The title makes it all worth it. In the end, everything was worth it. This is not the end that the Patriots organization, or its supporters envisioned for Brady’s (or Gronk’s) career, but those memories will always be there. I choose to look on the bright side. It’ll be must-see television when Brady and Gronkowski reunite for a few more touchdowns. Things could be worse.

Now, for the important stuff —

Although Gronkowski still could plug-and-play as the NFL’s best blocking tight end, his skills as the best pass catcher at the position seemed to finally diminish in 2018. Now, with a year of rest, a rejuvenated Gronk may improve on that front in 2018, but he’ll also be entering his age-31 season. Gronk is a huge get, but not as massive of a bring-in that many believe. Still, it’s an important, low-risk move that helps add to Brady’s comfortability with his new team.

Many speculated that Gronkowski hopping onboard meant the Bucs would become more lenient in their willingness to trade OJ Howard for more realistic assets. According to a report on Sunday from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler above, that does not seem to be the case.

I believe Howard may still be dealt, even as late as the preseason, but the team seems content to holding on to all three tight ends, which also includes Cameron Brate, who took a pay cut to stick around. Howard was misused under Arians last year, but maybe Brady’s affinity for middle-of-the-field passing to athletic tight ends will force Arians to be more creative in his usage of both Gronk and Howard in an ’12’ personnel (1 running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) that would include X-receiver Mike Evans and slot/flanker hybrid Chris Godwin.

Furthermore, Gronkowski and Howard are versatile enough to play as in-line tight ends, out wide, or in the slot as ‘Y’ pass catchers. Gronk recently said his playing weight was at around 262 pounds, and he currently weighs 250.

Basically, this addition of Gronkowski, and the draft, show how committed Tampa Bay is to winning now, in the next year or two.

The team lucked out when Iowa’s plug-and-play tackle Tristan Wirfs fell out of the top 10. The Buccaneers traded up one spot to No. 13 to get their new right tackle, who I think is most pro-ready over the likes of guys like Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton. I thought the Giants would get Wirfs at No. 4, but they went with Thomas.

Later on, the team added a No. 3 wide receiver in Minnesota’s Tyler Johnson in Round 5. I suspected Johnson would go somewhere in the third or fourth round. I thought of him as one of the best mid-round value picks at any position. He should be good to go in the slot as a bigger option in the middle of the field, capable of coming down with tough grabs. He’ll be an excellent addition who will produce in 2020. Just watch.

Furthermore, the team added to their young-and-improving defense with the selection of versatile, safety/nickel back hybrid Antoine Winfield Jr. (whose father played as a cornerback for the Bills in the 2000s, often facing off with Brady) in Round 2.

This Buccaneers team is ready to go, and I suspect they’ll be one of the NFL’s five or six best teams, even if there is a little risk involved.

 Jordan Love/Aaron Rodgers = Jimmy Garoppolo /Tom Brady

The Packers surprised many by bypassing on a wide receiver or offensive weapon in the first round, instead trading up to the No. 26 slot to select what appears to be Aaron Rodgers’ eventual successor in Utah State’s Jordan Love.

In Love, Green Bay gets a boom-or-bust, raw quarterback prospect with a strong arm and the ability to make highlight-worthy plays, but has struggled to produce consistently. Some have compared Love to Patrick Mahomes, and some have said that he was not worth selecting in the first round, or perhaps, any round.

And Green Bay opted for Love, instead of supplying a 36-year-old Rodgers with offensive help. In fact, Rodgers has been the last offensive skill position player selected (2005) by Green Bay in the first round.

Instead of the Brett Favre-Rodgers scenario that saw Rodgers, a possible No. 1 overall pick, fall into Green Bay’s lap, this situation is much more to the tune of the Tom Brady-Jimmy Garoppolo situation that began in in New England after the 2014 NFL Draft.

Brady was entering his age-37 season in 2014, and although it was more of a lack of offensive help that produced a decline in production, it appeared New England was bracing for their next franchise passer when they selected Garoppolo with the 62nd pick of the 2014 draft.

Of course, Brady outlived ‘The Patriot Way’ by fending off Garoppolo for the starting role, winning two Super Bowls with him on the roster, and reaching two more (winning one) after Garoppolo was traded to the 49ers during the 2017 midseason.

Rodgers hasn’t had a Rodgers-esque season since his near “run-the-table” affair with a severely undermanned 2016 squad, in which he led them on eight straight wins following a 4-6 start, before succumbing to a more-talented Falcons squad in Atlanta in the 2016 NFC Championship Game.

It’s more than fair to wonder if Rodgers’ best days are behind him, like we did with Brady in 2014, but there’s also a chance this ignites a fire under Rodgers for a late-career revival.

But if he is to do that, he’ll need to work with a roster that GM Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt Lafleur have clearly built to cater to a running game in two-tight end sets.

Rodgers could end his career elsewhere, a la Favre, or Brady, or he could fend Love off until 2024 and retire then. We’ll see.

 What about the Eagles and Saints’ QB rooms? Jalen Hurts? Jameis Winston? 

The Eagles shocked many with their selection of Jalen Hurts with the No. 53 pick in the draft, just 11 months removed from their four-year extension of Carson Wentz that included up to $144 million, with $66 million fully guaranteed.

Philadelphia clearly sees something in the versatile, intangible-driven Hurts. Given Wentz’s injury history, Hurts is likely a safe fail in that case, but there’s also the chance that they view him as someone who can come in and produced in specialized plays like Taysom Hill, or more so, like Lamar Jackson in his rookie season when he backed up Joe Flacco.

At the very least, the Eagles may just like what they see in Hurts, and are willing to develop him to eventually challenge for the starting quarterback role, although that feels like a long shot.

The Saints opted not to draft Jordan Love, or any quarterback near the top of the draft (they drafted Mississippi State’s Tommy Stevens in the seventh round) and instead are planning to sign Jameis Winston to a one-year deal (should go through by Tuesday), while also extending Taysom Hill to the tune of a two-year, $21 million deal.

All signs point to Drew Brees, age 41, retiring at the end of this season to join NBC Sports on a lucrative broadcasting deal, meaning the Saints will be in line for a new starting quarterback in 2021. The plan appears to be them continuing to utilize Hill in his swiss army knife role, while also seeing what they have in Winston as the traditional backup quarterback to Brees.

Then, they can make a choice next offseason on Winston, Hill or both to compete for the starting role in 2021. There is also the possibility they draft a quarterback early in the draft next spring.

 Brian Flores, Tua Tagovailoa and the surging Dolphins

To be frank, I love what the Dolphins are doing under Brian Flores.

Last year, many made fun of them early on, clamoring they were “tanking for Tua,” and that they were one of the worst rosters of all time. Flores had jettisoned many of the team’s talented players (Laremy Tunsil, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kenyan Drake, etc.) in favor of future capital, and after a 5-4 finish to a season that began 0-7, Miami used their five picks in the first two rounds over the weekend. Their first pick ended up being the player we thought would go to them for the past nine months.

I’m glad Miami deviated from the same decision they made when they signed Donta Culpepper over an “injured” Drew Brees in the 2006 offseason. Tua brings a lot to the table, including a versatile skill set, strong arm, new-age, dual-threat capability, and most of all, hope. Hope to a franchise and a fan base that needs it. Flores, and this selection, has instilled this.

Additionally, Flores appears to be building a recent-age Patriots-like roster, giving big money to two cornerbacks (Byron Jones, Xavien Howard) capable of playing press man coverage on the outside, before using additional assets on the position in nickel back Noah Igbinoghene at the end of Round 1 (pick No. 30).

Additionally, Miami used a second-round pick on Alabama interior defensive lineman Raekwon Davis, a Belichick-esque selection to rebuild a front seven that already added former Patriots stand-up edge rusher Kyle Van Noy in free agency.

Elsewhere, Miami used a first-round pick (offensive tackle Austin Jackson, No. 18 pick) and second-round selection (guard Robert Hunt, pick No. 39) on offensive lineman to build up their big boy unit. And I even loved the Dolphins selection of Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry in Round 7, a Belichick favorite who could be utilized in a variety of special situations. He may even make the team.

Oh, and Miami has two more first-round picks, and two more in Round 2, in the 2021 draft.

Yeah…I love what they’re doing.

 Team trends revealed in draft strategy 

The draft also revealed some clear strategies from teams. Let’s take a look.

— The Eagles clearly were looking to upgrade their speed at the wide receiver position, with what I think was a good selection of TCU’s Jalen Raegor, a jitterbug-type player with pick No. 21, then following suit with John Hightower (Round 5) and Quez Watkins (Round 6) on Day 3. With all that, DeSean Jackson is also slated to return.

— Despite hiring offensively-driven head coach Matt Rhule, the Panthers used all seven of their selections on defense, starting with pro-ready defensive tackle Derrick Brown with the No. 7 overall pick, and later adding athletic 4-3 EDGE rusher Yetur Gratos-Moss and thumper strong safety Jeremy Chinn in Round 2.

— Despite losing Tom Brady, and a variety of defensive players, Bill Belichick and the Patriots conducted business as they always do, opting to fill needs via free agency (fullback/H-back Danny Vitale, nose tackle Beau Allen, do-it-all safety/linebacker Adrian Phillips) via a familiar and versatility-driven way. Phillips now is perhaps the most versatile piece on a defense that seemingly will be defined by that trait. He has manned up Tyreek Hill with help over top (a la Jonathan Jones) and has been used as a quarterback spy for Lamar Jackson. In the draft, the Patriots added to the theme by selecting D-II prospect Kyle Dugger first in Round 2, who seems to be Patrick Chung’s replacement as a strong safety capable of moving up into the box, or covering athletic tight ends from the slot. New England then added linebacker/EDGE defender Josh Uche, and then Anfernee Jennings in Round 3, who projects as a strong side EDGE defender in the mold of John Simon, but was moved around at Alabama. Despite an offseason of major change, New England seems to be staying the course.

— The Broncos appear to be all in on quarterback Drew Lock. I would, too. Lock went 4-1 as a starter last season, and already found a connection with No. 1, ‘X’ wide receiver Courtland Sutton and athletic tight end Noah Fant. Add in Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon as a soon-to-be two-back attack and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam from this draft, and you have a complete offense for Denver. They still need work on their offensive line, though.

 Best of the rest — Intriguing first round picks 

— The Raiders selection of Alabama burner receiver Henry Ruggs was a classic move that Al Davis would have loved. It was also a classic Jon Gruden move. Any time the Raiders take a blazing receiver, it’s more than acceptable to be skeptical, but I truly do think Ruggs is the best receiver of his class, and fits the Tyreek Hill mold. I think there were better fits for Ruggs to succeed (49ers, Broncos, Eagles) but I still think he’ll have a good career.

— The Chargers selection of Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert (No. 6 overall) was expected but now I’m wondering if they view him as a Day 1 starter, or will they ride with Tyrod Taylor, who hasn’t started a game in almost two years. Whoever it is, the pressure is on. The Chargers have a somewhat-older, win-now roster on team that lacks a significant fan base, and is moving into a new stadium this season.

— Wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (No. 15 pick, Broncos) and CeeDee Lamb (No. 17 pick, Cowboys) fell to spots that are good for each of them. Both will be No. 2 wide receivers with pretty solid teams. There’s some pressure on them, sure, but it’s different from each going to say, the Jets, or Raiders, as a “you better produce now!” No. 1 receiver.

— LSU linebacker Patrick Queen falling to the Ravens was their best-case scenario. Baltimore has built up their front seven that was plowed over by Derrick Henry and the Titans in the playoffs. They already had a superb secondary that rivals New England’s as one of the league’s best. They also did a fantastic job with the rest of their draft. Bravo, Ravens.

 Day 2 value picks 

Considered a deep draft at many positions (particularly at wide receiver), there were some interesting Day 2 selections in Rounds 2 and 3.

The disciples of Bill Belichick made some solid Patriot-like selections in the second round, with the Lions taking Georgia running back D’Andre Swift to split time with Kerryon Johnson, the Giants nabbed versatile Alabama safety Xavier McKinney, and the Dolphins added to a solid draft by beefing up their interior defensive line with Alabama’s Raekwon Davis. All three seemed like fits in New England.

Other solid Day 2 picks in my mind were the Colts adding to their offense with X-receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) and bully running back Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), the Panthers selecting the Kam Chancellor-esque Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), the Patriots snagging the versatile Josh Uche (Michigan, teammate of Chase Winovich) as a Jamie Collins replacement, and the Broncos continuing to build around Drew Lock with selections of receiver K.J. Hamler (Penn State) and top center/guard prospect Lloyd Cushenburry (LSU).

After that, I liked the Saints pick of EDGE rusher Zach Baun (Wisconsin), who slid to Round 3 presumably after a drug test mishap, and Washington’s pick of do-it-all, running back/receiver Antonio Gibson out of Memphis in the third round.

 Where will Cam Newton end up? 

The most fascinating soon-to-be Summer storyline is the potential landing spot for Cam Newton. Some of the more once-obvious fits like the Dolphins and Chargers are presumably out after drafting passers in the first round, and the fact that the Bears traded draft capital for Nick Foles and his contract back when Newton was available also speaks volumes.

At this point, for Newton, we’re looking at two “I guess this kinda make sense?” fits in Washington and the Jaguars, two under-the-radar, possible suitors in the Bills and Broncos, and two “this makes too much sense” wild card fits in the Patriots and Steelers.

In Buffalo and Denver, there are young and near-established franchise quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Drew Lock. It appears the Broncos love Lock, and after his 4-1 record as a starter as a rookie, they have every reason to. I don’t think they’d like to ruffle the feathers by bringing in Newton. Allen has shown his value as a football player at quarterback, but he hasn’t necessarily improved too much as a passer. With heavy assets invested in a wide receiver trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley, and a superb, top-flight defense, the Bills are ready to win the AFC East now, and possibly more than that. Maybe they’d like an insurance plan at quarterback in case Allen has a set back, or doesn’t pan out? Plus, the Bills head coach, Sean McDermott, was Carolina’s defensive coordinator during most of Newton’s tenure in Charlotte.

As for the Patriots, they’d have to open up cap space by cutting veterans (Mohamed Sanu, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Rex Burkhead) or by trading guard Joe Thuney for draft capital in 2021. If they were to open up the space, the idea of a rejuvenated, motivated Newton joining the Patriots on a one-year, prove-it deal, for say, $9 to $12 million sounds appealing. No offense is more effective at using a chameleon-like approach as Josh McDaniels’ bunch in New England, meaning it likely wouldn’t be hard for them to cater their offense toward Newton. Pairing Newton with one of the league’s top defenses would put New England right back on the map. The Patriots passed on all quarterbacks in the draft, but picked up two undrafted rookie free agents at the position, to bring the total to four at the position for them. Still, I smell there’s a chance for Newton to end up in New England once he’s able to come in for a physical, and once the Patriots open up some cap space. Vegas seems to agree. 

But more level-headed minds, and usually-locked-in reporters don’t seem to agree. The Athletic’s Jeff Howe remains adamant through his source, that the Patriots continue to express zero interest in Newton. Still, call it a hunch, or maybe overly-wishful thinking, but I think Newton to the Patriots is a situation that bears monitoring, maybe even well into the summer.

The Steelers have built a solid defense and may be in need of another quarterback in 2021. This seems like the end of the road for 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. I thought Jalen Hurts would have been a good fit for Pittsburgh in Round 2, but he wound up on Pennsylvania’s other NFL franchise. If Newton can be happy in a backup role, with a chance to take over in 2021, I think Pittsburgh would be a good fit.

Patriots celebrate Super Bowl LIII

Belichick, Patriots halt Rams with defensive masterpiece

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

With just over eight minutes remaining in Super Bowl LIII, and the score tied, the crowd of fans overwhelming run by Patriots’ backers began their chant.

“Brady! Brady! Brady!”

Tom Brady delivered a 29-yard pass to Rob Gronkowski up the seam, setting up a two-yard, eventual game-winning touchdown by Sony Michel.

Tom Brady - Super Bowl LIII
Tom Brady celebrates the go-ahead score in Super Bowl LIII. (Screenshot: NFLPA/Disney)

As always, Brady calmly came through in the fourth quarter of football’s biggest stage, helping the Patriots win yet another Super Bowl. But that’s about all he did. In fact, that was the only touchdown scored by any team, the entire game.

“Yeah, it was tough,” Brady said. “We just couldn’t make the big play. We just couldn’t stay on the field on third down. We just knew we had a whole half to go. Defense set the tone. . . . They held them and we broke through in the fourth quarter.”

This game was mostly won by Bill Belichick, Brian Flores and their hungry defense. It was an ode to Patriots teams of the past. Like the one that stopped the Rams of St. Louis in their tracks in Super Bowl XXXVI. But this was more than that. This was an ass-whooping of the umpteenth degree. This was 66-year-old Belichick schooling 33-year-old Rams head coach Sean McVay, and 24-year-old Jared Goff, the quarterback that was taken with the first pick of the 2016 draft.

The tone of the defense was especially set to pristine edge-setting, effective interior pass-rushing, blanketed coverage and a warrior-like attitude from a unit that was counted out more times than once during their trek toward yet another championship.

Few other plays (and players) exemplified the Patriots’ attitude then Patrick Chung’s tenacity in attempting to make a tackle, on a play where he reportedly broke his arm. After a TV timeout where staff tended to Chung, which led to the cart being rolled out, the 10-year veteran corralled his emotions and pulled himself up, to walk to the sideline, on his own volition.

“When you see a guy like that put it all on the line, put his body on the line, not caring, it makes you want to fight more for your teammates,” Stephon Gilmore said.

Chung watched the rest of the game from the sidelines in an arm cast. But even he realized that his teammates were more than capable of picking up the slack, to finish off the wide-eyed Rams.

“I was on the ground crying,” Chung told The Athletic. “They said, ‘Stop crying, bro we got you.’ I heard it. I felt it. I had no doubt in my mind we would be good.”

New England had already confused the Rams with a heavy dose of zone coverage, which contradicted their season’s story, as they ran more man coverage than any other team in the NFL.

Jonathan Jones, a backup cornerback, and special teams player, played 64 of 65 snaps as a safety opposite Devin McCourty, while Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty played every defensive snap as the team’s top two cornerbacks.

New England employed a quarters coverage for most of the game. That’s essentially a Cover 4, with two cornerbacks and two safeties each taking away one-fourth of the field in deep zone coverage.

“We anticipated that we would see some unscouted stuff,” Rams center John Sullivan told Sports Illustrated. “Playing Cover-4 was unscouted. Or it was different from them, let’s put it that way.”

Ironically, it was ex-Patriots defensive coordinator, and current Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia, who successfully slowed down the Rams’ offense with this style in a 30-16 loss to Los Angeles in December.

Belichick saw that and utilized this coverage, while also taking away the Rams’ patented outside zone running scheme by often putting linebackers on the edge of the line of scrimmage, giving the feel of six-man fronts to limit the Rams aggressiveness with their usual rushing style.

Of course, the curious case of Todd Gurley (34 total yards), the NFL’s touchdown leader in the regular season with 21, helped in preventing the Rams usually-explosive offense from doing heavy damage, but the Patriots certainly played their part in limiting him when McVay looked his way.

A front seven that was inconsistent for much of the year was masterful on Sunday, holding the Rams to 62 rushing yards and sacking Goff four times, flustering him to the point where never gained a rhythm.

Trey Flowers had a monster tackle for a loss, Adrian Clayborn consistently applied pressure, Kyle Van Noy added a key third-down sack, and Dont’a Hightower added to his Super Bowl lore.

Famous for his game-saving tackle on Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl XLIX, and his sack-fumble on Matt Ryan in Super Bowl LI, Hightower had his best overall performance in any of his three Super Bowl appearances on Sunday.

He was flying around the field with his pre-2017 speed, using his experience in big games to outsmart Goff, and pummel the Rams’ offensive line and running game.

Clearly missed in last year’s 41-33, Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, Hightower’s two sacks, and near-interception, put him a hair above Gilmore as the team’s best defensive player on the night.

“Whenever you work as hard as we do,” Hightower said, “and you’re as dedicated, and you’ve got guys who come in and work hard and who are willing to sacrifice their time away from their family and their loved ones, who are willing to do whatever each and every week in a hard, demanding place, you expect that. You expect to win whenever you practice, whenever you put that much hard work into the game plans every week.”

As the pass rush got to Goff, the secondary limited the Rams receivers. Former Patriot deep-threat Brandin Cooks, traded to Los Angeles a year ago for a first-round pick, hauled in eight catches for 120 yards, but failed to reel in two of the biggest targets of the game.

Goff looked his way late for a would-be touchdown in the third quarter, that was knocked away by Jason McCourty, after a herculean effort to sprint from his zone assignment to break up the play. Then, in the fourth quarter, Goff’s best throw of the night fell right into Cooks’ hands, but Duron Harmon got a hand in there, which was just enough to stop the play.

Stephon Gilmore - Super Bowl LIII
Stephon Gilmore’s interception of Goff in the fourth quarter put Super Bowl LIII on ice
(Screenshot: NFL on CBS)

On the very next play, the Patriots sent Harmon on a delayed-blitz. As he came screaming in untouched, Goff panicked, and threw up a jackpot-style pass to the same spot, where Stephon Gilmore, the NFL’s premier shutdown cornerback, was waiting in his quarters coverage.

“I saw it the whole time,” Gilmore said. “I never took my eyes off it. I looked it in. I can’t believe he threw it.”

It’s true. In replays, Gilmore clearly had his eyes on Goff the entire time. His interception came after a vintage game-winning drive by Brady, his sixth in Super Bowls (he’s won every one that way), virtually sealing the game.

Finally coming alive, Brady went 4-for-4 with 67 yards to put the Patriots up 10-3, finding eventual Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman (10 catches, 141 yards) on his zillionth dig route of the game, matched up against Rams linebacker Corey Littleton, who gave up the ensuing deep seam route to Gronk, two plays later.

Rob Gronkowski - Super Bowl LIII
Rob Gronkowski reels in a 29-yard catch on the Patriots game-winning drive in Super Bowl LIII. (Screenshot: NFL on CBS)

After the game, Gronkowski punted away retirement questions, stating that he would take a week or two to decide. Instead, perhaps the greatest tight end ever, fresh off his big fourth quarter, embraced the moment.

“Bill (Belichick) told me he’s partying tonight,” said Gronkowski, who was also seen in a hilarious Instagram video with Brady after the game, seemingly taunting any and all of their detractors to the tune of the outro in Eminem’s Without Me.

New England even finally broke free in the running game late, as James Develin plowed over defenders as a lead-blocking fullback, helping clear lanes for Michel (18 carries, 94 yards) and the Patriots backs in general (154 rushing yards) on a night where the Rams not only took away the outside-the-numbers passing routes, but also usual Super Bowl safety net James White (nine total yards).

But as always, the Patriots adapted. And despite a shaky effort early, Brady found his rhythm late. He was given way too many chances.

Brady was already at or past Michael Jordan’s level of overarching greatness in North American professional team sports. And this season was about Brady, Belichick and the Patriots resilience in the face of more moments of adversity than even they have been accustomed to.

But this game in particular was about something else. It was another masterful Belichick blueprint on the game’s biggest stage. It was Flores’ swan song before heading to Miami to coach the Dolphins. And it was the Patriots’ defense, the group that let the team down in Super Bowl LII last February, emphatically making their mark with one of the great performances as an overall unit in the history of the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LIII Preview

Super Bowl LIII Preview: Brady’s second shot at ring No. 6 comes versus ‘all-in’ Rams

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

By now the storylines have reached a point of exhaustion. The hate for the Patriots’ self-contrived ‘underdog’ status has been well-documented. The Rams’ aggressive team-building approach and wunderkind head coach, well-profiled.

But this should come as a sigh of relief — here is a FOOTBALL preview of Super Bowl LIII. That’s right — matchups, x-factors and what each team needs to do to be victorious. Enjoy.

Patriots offense vs Rams defense

Despite being anchored by the greatest quarterback that ever lived, the Patriots have transitioned to more of an old-school ground-and-pound offense for a significant portion of the team’s last four victories.

Behind perhaps the league’s best offensive line since December, and the best lead-blocking fullback in pro football in James Develin, rookie workhorse back Sony Michel has rushed for 242 yards and five touchdowns in New England’s two postseason wins.

Still, the offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is famous for adopting a chameleon-type approach to attacking defenses. Depending on the opponent, the Patriots may opt for Brady to line up in shotgun and sling the football 50-60 times, or they may opt to bulk up and run over opponents with ’21’ or 12′ personnel.

The Rams were ranked 31st in rush yards per attempt allowed in the regular season (Chiefs were 32nd), but they’ve hunkered down in the postseason. First, they bottled up Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL’s leading rusher, then stymied the two-back attack of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, allowing those three to just 93 yards on 37 carries in their two postseason wins.

But what the Rams did fall susceptible to (early on) in their thrilling overtime win over the Saints, is the halfback running out into the flats.

Targeted 13 times, Kamara reeled in 11 passes for 96 yards, often in the flats with Rams linebacker Corey Littleton trailing in coverage.

This bodes well for James White, who is the Patriots’ X-factor on offense this Sunday. 

Expect White to haul in anywhere from 10 to 15 passes running shallow flat, angle and option routes matched up against Rams linebackers.

With an excellent cornerback duo of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, Brady will have trouble throwing outside the numbers to the likes of Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett.

But with just Hogan, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski on the field most of the time for New England, expect Talib to get his share of duties against Gronk in man coverage, even lined up as a traditional tight end.

Brady will shy away from Talib and Peters mostly, looking for White, Rex Burkhead and you guessed it….Julian Edelman lined up against Rams slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman.

Robey-Coleman walked back his ‘taken-out-of-context’ comments referring to Brady’s old age, which is good, because TB12 has had his fair share of success targeting him from his days as a member of the Buffalo Bills. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady has a 130.6 passer rating when targeting Robey-Coleman, which is good for his third highest against any defender in the he has targeted at least 20 times.

So it’s understandable that Brady and Edelman, perhaps the best QB-to-slot receiver tandems of all-time, would have their way with the Rams’ CB3.

But in a season-defining game such as this, look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to have various plans in slowing down the Patriots’ passing game. With age catching up to Gronkowski, it’s possible Phillips places Talib on Edelman, but Talib will turn 33 years old 10 days after Sunday’s game, meaning he’s not quite the player he once was. Still a solid man-coverage cornerback, Talib would be up for the challenge, with the press coverage skills to slow down Edelman at times, but Edelman is not your average 32-year-old receiver. His affinity for clutch play and relentless grit, combined with his quickness and rapport with Brady, actually make him one of the league’s hardest receivers to cover, certainly at this time of the year.

In that case, the Rams might opt for more zone coverage, but knowing Brady decimates teams that play soft zone coverage as their primary defense (see: Brady vs. Steelers), Phillips will have to disguise his looks to full Brady, ultimately mixing in well-designed blitzes at the proper times to fool the GOAT.

But that can prove risky, with quick outlets such as White and Burkhead (who also can be utilized in running draws) available as quick-passing targets for Brady.

Which means the Rams’ blueprint success doesn’t necessarily rely on perfect coverage, but instead being the old adage of pressuring the quarterback, which works on any passer, not just Brady.

Yet, it’s a very specific type of pressure that will slow down this Patriots offense, and the Rams have the perfect players to do so.

Michael Brockers and Dante Fowler Jr. are capable on the edge, but Trent Brown and Marcus Cannon should be able to slow them down. And even if they don’t at times, Brady’s all-time pocket presence is perhaps his best tangible attribute, meaning stepping up and around edge pressure is something he can and will do.

Instead, it’s the interior where the Rams will need to excel.

Luckily for Los Angeles, they sport the greatest interior rushing threat — and eventually, maybe greatest defensive tackle ever— in Aaron Donald.

With a league-high 20.5 sacks and 41 knockdowns, Donald is primed for to win his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award on Saturday.

The behemoth has the ability to wreck any team’s game plan, but the interior of the Patriots’ offensive line has been stout. From left guard to right, Joe Thuney, David Andrews (center) and Shaq Mason have brutalized defenses in the run game, and along with tackles Brown and Cannon, they have kept Brady upright the entire postseason thus far. Zero sacks allowed by this group. The only other time a Super Bowl-winning quarterback went unscathed for no sacks in a postseason run was Brady in the 2003 Patriots’ path to glory.

With the ability to double-team Donald, the Patriots will limit him SOME, but expect Donald to have at least three or more clean pressures on Brady from the interior, due to his sheer dominance.

But if New England can limit Donald with a double team, the Rams’ success, and possibly chances of winning, may lie with their X-factor on defense, Ndamukong Suh.

Once a dominant interior player on his own with the Lions, Suh is not quite the same player, but is still formidable enough to take over a game if need be. Although not indicative of the effectiveness of an interior rusher, Suh has just 4.5 sacks this season, meaning he could do better as a rusher, which is part of the reason the Rams snagged Fowler from the Jaguars midseason, to generate more pressure.

But matched up solo against Thuney or Mason, Suh may be a game-wrecker for the Patriots in both the pass and the run game, if he steps up for the challenge.

But this is a tough matchup for the Rams. The Patriots will likely employ a mix of everything, which includes things like Burkhead running routes from the slot, and Cordarrelle Patterson acting as an ‘athlete’ by lining up in the backfield, and taking his fair share of end-arounds.

But ultimately, the Patriots want to control the tempo, and the clock, by pounding Michel behind their stout offensive line, lead-blocking extraordinaire Develin and monster-blocking by Gronk and Dwayne Allen. If they can break the Rams that way, then the play-action will come, and the Rams will likely falter, no matter what they do on offense. But if Donald and Suh can generate consistent interior pressure, against both the run and the pass, a la the 2007 and 2011 Giants, then the Rams may have their recipe for success.

Rams defense vs Patriots offense

The Rams have fond success under wunderkind, offensive-minded Sean McVay, a 33-year-old head coach that has used futuristic concepts to riddle opposing defenses.

Running McVay’s offense is 24-year-old Jared Goff, a third-year quarterback (and former No. 1 overall pick) who has vastly improved since his NFL debut.

The Rams heavily employ ’11’ personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and often use these pieces in a bunch formation, with three receivers playing tightly within each other, and close to their offensive line. There, McVay relies upon Todd Gurley, one of the league’s best backs, on outside zones, while also utilizing Gurley as a receiver, and as a decoy, in play-action passes where the team’s bunch formations makes it hard to decipher routes, and where their receivers are going.

But because many of the Rams’ passing plays are long-developing, with routes such as deep-comebacks to Brandin Cooks, Goff holds onto the ball longer, giving a much-improved Patriots pass rush, led by Trey Flowers, a chance pressure Goff, as they did Patrick Mahomes in the AFC championship game.

The Patriots front seven in general had a rough go for much of the regular season, but they’ve allowed just 60 yards on 22 carries in their postseason wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. And while December-acquisition, and postseason hero C.J. Anderson had a successful outing versus the Cowboys, he was held to 2.8 yards per carry versus the Saints, meaning Gurley HAS to get it going in some form, for the Rams to have a chance.

The 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year garnered a putrid 13 yards on five touches, which included a drop-turned interception early on, which helped put the Rams in a 13-0 hole. That can’t happen versus the Patriots.

Gurley looked discouraged and flustered, but he’s been given another opportunity, and should have a better go-round than his NFC championship game performance.

But Bill Belichick specializes in taking away his opponents’ best offensive weapon. And although Gurley may seem like that guy on paper, the real weapon in this offense is McVay, through Goff. It’s the perfectly-ingrained system. With possession receiver, turned-bonafide-stud WR1 Robert Woods, speedy, deep threat Brandin Cooks and the young, sure-handed Josh Reynolds, the Rams have a nice trio of receivers, even with the loss of slot receiver Cooper Kupp earlier in the season.

Mentioned earlier, the Rams’ Aqib Talib was perhaps the league’s best man coverage cornerback a few seasons ago (think: 2015). That title now belongs to Patriots CB1 Stephon Gilmore. Not only is Gilmore the best man coverage corner, he’s the best cornerback in the league overall right now, period.

Although the Patriots may mix in some zone concepts, they just love to play man coverage, meaning that’s primarily what they’ll start with.

Cooks is a dangerous threat, but his route tree is limited to deep comebacks, drags, slants and flies. He isn’t a uber-precise route-runner, or a receiver who hangs onto balls consistently in traffic.

Woods isn’t as much of a home-run threat as Cooks is, but he’s the better overall receiver, meaning he’ll likely draw Gilmore for most of the game.

The Patriots will likely use a combination of Jason McCourty or undrafted rookie J.C. Jackson on Cooks, with safety Duron Harmon moving over from his usual ‘center fielder’ type role to shad overtop Cooks. The guess is the veteran McCourty draws Cooks (with help), while Jackson gets a shot at Reynolds. Because of his likely opportunity in one-on-one coverage, Reynolds is one of two X-factor(s) on the Rams’ offense. 

If Reynolds can beat his man consistently, Goff will be able to find his second and third read, while the Patriots key on more-known targets like Woods, Cooks and Gurley.

But with a much-improved pass rush, the Patriots have been able to get pressure with fronts containing Flowers, Adrian Clayborn, and interior sub-rusher Adam Butler. New England has also sent Kyle Van Noy from the edge with much success in recent weeks, specifically in the first half against Kansas City.

If the Patriots are able to play press man coverage tightly to delay (and knock off) the routes of Rams receivers, New England may make things difficult for Goff. That’s where McVay will have to lean on the ’12’ personel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2WR) groupings he used in the team’s comeback win over the Saints (16 snaps.)

In that case, the Rams would replace Reynolds with another tight end to pair with Tyler Higbee. That would be the team’s second X-factor on offense, Gerald Everett. 

Everett is a move tight end capable of giving the Patriots fits. He’s nimble and athletic, and can block just well enough to not be a liability in the run game. If the Rams can find some success running Gurley or Anderson here, that will set up Everett matched up agains the likes of Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower and possibly Devin McCourty or Patrick Chung. The latter of those four would likely be the best matchup for the Patriots, meaning Chung is the Patriots’ X-factor on defense, providing Belichick with a good piece in man coverage against tight ends from the slot. 

In the run game, Chung can be used in the box and up front as a pseudo-linebacker capable of stopping Gurley and Anderson, while also not surrendering speed and coverage ability to the team’s personnel. This may also include the occasional man coverage assignment on Gurley lined up as a receiver, when motioning out of the backfield.

The Rams have the pieces to make things awfully difficult on the Patriots here, but New England’s experience and recent mojo suggest they’ll have their moments, too.

Prediction

On paper, the Rams are not only vastly more talented, but they seemingly have the pieces and the aggressive approach to take down the Patriots, much like the Eagles did last year.

But New England has their swagger back this postseason. Missing in Super Bowl LII were the likes of Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower, both of whom provide championship pedigree to a team that feeds off mental toughness and momentum. This Patriots team feeds off doubters, more so than any of the teams they’ve harnessed in the past decade.

The stage won’t be ‘too big’ for the Rams, but I believe they’ll get caught napping early, as the Patriots get out to a lead behind a fiery Tom Brady, who will look for James White early and often (I mean it…10-15 catches from him, and two touchdowns — one rushing, one receiving).

The Rams will figure things out both offensively and defensively in the second half, and like all past Brady-Belichick Super Bowls, this will be close, but nowhere near like the  nail-biters in their past few bouts.

New England will switch up their offensive approach from drive to drive, as they won’t be able to run 45 times against this improved Rams defense, but they’ll have enough success running to set up a few downfield throws by Brady on play-action.

And when the Patriots aren’t running behind Develin and the offensive line, they’ll spread things out and Brady will look to the short and intermediate areas in between the numbers.

The Rams will have some success with Gurley before he’s taken out of the game, leaving Goff alone, looking for his secondary weapons.

Give me Brady, Belichick and these hungry Patriots to complete the full circle of their dynasty that spans over 18 years. They’ll beat the Rams again, for what might be their last Super Bowl together.

Patriots 31, Rams 26

Super Bowl MVP: James White

Rob Gronkowski vs Chiefs

NFL Monday Morning Madness: Brady-Mahomes duel (Part I of II?) one for the ages + NFL MVP race

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

The game of the year (so far) lived up the billing. It could have been named regular season game of the decade and lived up to the hype, and then some. There’s a lot to unpack, a lot to examine in one of the wildest games in NFL history. A 43-40, video-game like thriller resulting in a 43-40 win for the Patriots over the Chiefs. The game may decide a lot more than just last night’s result in the standings. But we’ll get to that.

We’ll begin with the greatest quarterback of all-time, and his 2018 offense, which has the chance to develop into one of Tom Brady’s best, just in time for the November-December-January trek.

“I think we have a lot of clutch players,” Brady said at his postgame press conference. “I don’t think we have a problem grinding it out.”

Among the players grinding it out in the 4th quarter were Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan. Each of them made two huge catches in the fourth quarter (four of their seven catches combined for the night) to help set up 13 key points late, that ultimately won the game.

Joining Gronkowski and Hogan (and his 39-yard virtual game-winning catch above) were Sony Michel (106 rushing yards, 2 TDs), James White (92 total yards), Julian Edelman (four catches, 54 yards, TD) and Josh Gordon (five catches, 42 yards) as a holster of weapons — some tenured, some developing — in an offense that should become scarier leading up to Halloween and beyond.

In the win, Brady became the winningest-player (227 wins) at any position in NFL history, along with garnering his 200th career regular season win, which is another league record.

The same cannot be said about the Patriots’ defense, whose gimmicky (and smart) defense that confused Patrick Mahomes early on faded away as the game went along. But the Patriots’ defense is as advertised. The story here is Mahomes, a never-before-seen player who is a healthy mix between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre (Packer fans’ input?), but too original to heavily compare him to anyone.

After a few mistakes early on, Mahomes delivered four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, leading the Chiefs to 31 second-half points to take the lead after being down 24-9 at the half.

“Just to be able to go against the best, that fight is something you can carry on for the rest of the season,” Mahomes said during his postgame presser.

Rarely does game in October mean so much, but there was a lot at stake on Sunday night. Stephen Gostkowski’s 28-yard game-winning field goal) brought the Patriots (4-2) within one game of the Chiefs (5-1) and gives New England the tiebreaker if the AFC’s No. 1 seed comes down to that. The Chiefs have a tough Week 11 matchup with the league-best Rams in Mexico City, but ultimately have the much-easier schedule down the stretch, as the Patriots host the Packers and Vikings, and travel to face the Bears (next Sunday) and Steelers as part of a tough journey ahead. A win here would have been a knockout punch fo the Chiefs, who may still host the AFC Championship Game.

It’s possible Eric Berry and Justin Houston would be available to boost Kansas City’s defense at Arrowhead Stadium (or Gillette Stadium) when the rematch materializes. And it will.

The Chiefs will still have Travis Kelce, and Patriots-dominating offensive weapons Kareem Hunt (185 total yards, TD) and Tyreek Hill (seven catches, 142 yards, three receiving TDs) who have played two games in New England in the last 13 months, and have been unstoppable in each.

The brief postgame handshake between Brady and Mahomes felt like a possible passing of the torch, even if delayed for another season or too. Brady is still the game’s best player now, and ever. But Mahomes has arrived. It wasn’t as sweet as Tim Duncan’s interaction with LeBron James after the 2007 NBA Finals, but if Kansas City ousts New England in the playoffs, this could be the game we look back at as maybe Brady’s last moment as lead dog. But Brady is a machine, and that can’t yet be predicted for sure.

The defensive-minded Ravens and Jaguars, or talented Chargers and Steelers may have a say here, but expect to see a rematch this January in the AFC Championship game.. Chiefs-Patriots, or Patriots-Chiefs. Whichever it is, treat it as well….a treat. A wonderful second meal (way better than a measly dessert) all football fans deserve, after tasting it’s imperfect perfection on Sunday Night.

The game of the year (so far) lived up to the hype.

Cream of the crop always…..you know

Are the Steelers slowly easing their way back into contenders status? What we do know after their thrilling, last-second win in Cincinnati, is that the Bengals aren’t quite ready for that label. With a chance to take a commanding early lead in the AFC North, they lost at home, as the Steelers are now just a half game back in the division.

It was Ben Roethlisbeger to Antonio Brown for the game-winning score with 10 seconds remaining, as he drove down the field with help (including a two-point conversion) from JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was equally as clutch. Like the Patriots, the Steelers seem to start off slow in recent seasons. But with the drams surrounding the team this season, and the absence of Le’Veon Bell, the skepticism was well-warranted. But with the ascension of James Connor, the grittiness of Big Ben, and AB84 back to being, well, the game’s best receiver, the Steelers are back in the thick of things.

Pittsburgh is the favorite to win the AFC North, again. That’s six straight losses to Pittsburgh for the Bengals, who may need to think about Wild Card spots after this loss.

AFC South logjam

What in the world is happening with the AFC South?

The most shocking development has been the uneven play of the Jaguars (3-3), who have looked awful as of late, mostly because of the pumpkin-reverting play by Jags QB Blake Bortles, who was again shaky in the team’s 40-7 loss in Dallas to the Cowboys.

But at least the Jaguars have a signature win (Week 2 vs. Patriots) to bank on. The Titans (3-3) have played six ugly games, and after a road loss in Buffalo, and now a 21-0 home loss to the Ravens, the team is clearly trending downward, even after wins over the Jaguars and Eagles.

Then there’s the Texans (3-3). After an 0-3 start, the team has fallen ass-backward into three straight wins to move into a tie for first place in the division. Houston needed a pick-six (and another interception following that) by the immortal Nathan Peterman to beat the Buffalo Bills (2-4) at home. Houston hasn’t looked particularly solid in any game this season, as Deshaun Watson eases back in from an ACL tear last season, and the common Year 2 blues that a young QB generally experiences.

The Jaguars are probably the team to beat in this division, as their talented defense should lead them to the AFC South title, and the conferees’s No. 4 seed, at minimum. But with the way Bortles has been playing, that’s far from a sure thing. The overall take of this group (which includes the 1-5 Indianapolis Colts) through six games? ‘Woof.’

Quick-hits

– For Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake, the keyword is ‘mental toughness.’ Especially after he seemingly fumbled away a victory at the one-inch line in overtime, only to lead the Dolphins back into field goal range after given a second chance (Bears missed field goal.) The win really exhibited the grit that Gase so desires from his team after an offseason overhaul. Miami kept pace in the AFC East with the win.

The Bears get the Bengals’ treatment in that they may be a year away from being a ‘true’ contender in their conference. But traveling to Miami from Chicago for an early start time is as tough as it gets for a non-East coast team. But still, the game was up grabs and the Bears capitalized on virtually nothing, minus a big interception late of Brock Osweiler returned the other way to set up a score. But after blowing leads of 21-13 and 28-21 to Osweiler, it seems the Bears are super talented, but aren’t a true contender yet. 2019 may be their year. Up next for the Bears? The surging Patriots, who will be looking for their first road victory of 2018.

– The perfect picture to sum up the Redskins’ 23-17 victory over the Panthers at home. Both teams are now 3-2.

– Here come the Los Angeles Chargers. Their third straight win, a 38-14 dismantling of the upstart Browns in Cleveland, bring them to 4-2 and squarely in the mix in the AFC. They’re one of the league’s five or six most talented teams, that will only get better with the return of Joey Bosa at some point. Also, they’re only losses are to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the league’s best clubs. However, their track record of errant miscues at the most inopportune times should serve as a tale of caution for anyone predicting them to make a deep playoff run. But it’s fun to get reeled in. The talent is there. Will coaching and well-executed play in the clutch catch up this season?

NFL MVP Race

1) Patrick Mahomes – What more can you say? Even in a loss he showed why he belongs here for now.

2) Todd Gurley – Gurley has overtaken the throne — previously held by Le’Veon Bell — as the league’s best running back. The Rams RB1 has also passed Antonio Brown as the NFL’s best non-QB, offensive weapon. Jared Goff has begun taking the mantle as the leader of this team, but Gurley is still engine.

3) Jared Goff – The Rams were Gurley’s team last season. This year it’s a mix between Gurley and Goff. If the Rams ultimately are to win Super Bowl LIII, the third-year QB will have to fully take the mantle. If it doesn’t happen then, it soon will. It’s a QB-driven league and offensive mastermind Sean McVay has his guy.

4) Drew Brees – With 11 TDs, ZERO interceptions and a league-high 77.9 completion percentage, Brees is playing perhaps his best football at age 39. Don’t sleep on the 2018 New Orleans Saints.

5) Alvin Kamara – Similar to the Rams’ situation explained above, Kamara is becoming the engine of the Saints’ offense. Brees is still the offense, and the franchise, but with help from Kamara (and Michael Thomas), the Saints are gaining momentum as a NFC powerhouse. They have more than just their QB to thank.

Next up: Khalil Mack, Tom Brady, Adam Thielen 

Patriots go ‘once more into the fray’ in quest for sixth ring

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

193 days removed from one of the most painful losses of his career, Tom Brady took the field against the Philadelphia Eagles with something to prove. The contrast in importance from Super Bowl LII and this home preseason tilt can’t be overstated, but for Brady, this was a chance to damper the over-analyzed noise of ‘discord’ between he and Bill Belichick during the offseason, as seen and heard on sports television and sports talk radio.

The GOAT’s performance (19/26, 172 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) was sharp. An A-minus level of quarterbacking against the team that thwarted his attempt at a sixth ring. With WR1 Brandin Cooks, do-everything back Dion Lewis and uber-clutch slot weapon Danny Amendola all gone, Brady will carry a heavier load this season. That’s something he’s done in past years, but as he enters his age-41 campaign, that’s certainly not ideal.

Still, the Patriots possess the ultimate mismatch-creator in tight end Rob Gronkowski, and will welcome back trusty slot receiver Julian Edelman in October after his four-game suspension for who knows what. In September bouts versus the Texans, Jaguars, Lions and Dolphins, Brady will have to rely on Chris Hogan as his WR1 with scatback James White and two former first-round picks Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson to fill the void. Patterson is the ultimate ‘gadget’ weapon capable of creating big gains off screens, reverses and the deep fly. Dorsett is a smaller target with blazing speed a la Brandin Cooks, but not as polished. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will likely try Dorsett in a variety of roles including in Cooks’ and Edelman’s spot for the first month of the season.

But what will the offense look like in general? McDaniels is known for creating a chameleon-type mentality within the Patriots’ complex offense run by Brady. One game New England might pound the rock in two-tight end sets (with the occasional play-action pass) while another matchup may bring out a spread set for much of the game, asking Brady to beat a top-end defense by throwing 50 or more passes — which he surely can do. It’s been documented many times before, but the Patriots use short passes to RBs and slot receivers as bonafide runs in that scenario. They move players like James Devlin out wide in no-huddle base-switched-to-spread formations and move receivers in motion to identify the coverage, and then Brady assess.

Many call it ‘dinking and dunking’ but what Brady does with timed and small window throws is a thing of beauty. As opposed to consistently looking deep to Cooks, Hogan and Gronkowski like last season, Brady will attack the short and middle spots of the defense before he attacks downfield with what can be described as the ‘jugular.’ This is reserved for when Brady looks downfield on either a play-action pass or unexpected bomb to hit the defense where and when it least expects it. The best example of this is Brady’s deep touchdown pass to Chris Hogan to defeat the Ravens on a Monday Night Football game during the 2016 season:

New England’s team-building philosophy allows them to find obscure or mid-level available targets to fit their system, without having to battle other teams for their services. These players are hired on affordable contracts, or traded for assets with slim value to the franchise. The latest example being Patterson, who may very well enjoy a career year in New England despite being dealt there, along with a sixth-round pick in exchange for a fifth-round pick. That’s practically nothing.

Likewise, the Patriots retained Burkhead on a three-year deal with $5.5 million guaranteed. With the Patriots handling of Michel’s injury and Lewis in Tenneseee, Burkhead may too, have a career year as the presumed feature back to start the season.

But the running back corps should rely on perhaps their best bargain of all, scatback James White. The trusty offensive weapon will be heavily relied on to start the season, and even may lead the team in catches. The player who has scored six touchdowns in his last four postseason games quietly signed a three-year extension last offseason that nets him just $12 million (not guaranteed) through 2020. The Patriots win in this scenario again.

But enough contract talk. Expect the unexpected when it comes to the Patriots attempt to score points on four familiar, stingy defensive foes in September, but after that Brady and company should find their rythmn with a mix of gameplans derived generated to attack opponents’ weaknesses.

In short, as long as Brady is running the show, and Gronkowski and Edelman remain healthy, New England should remain one of the league’s consistent scoring machines in 2018.

Week 1 Projected offense:

QB — Tom Brady

RB — Rex Burkhead 

WR — Chris Hogan

WR — Cordarrelle Patterson 

Slot WR — Phillip Dorsett (Edelman will replace Dorsett after his four-game suspension; Dorsett would move back outside)

TE — Rob Gronkowski

LT — Trent Brown 

LG — Joe Thuney 

C — David Andrews

RG — Shaq Mason 

RT — Marcus Cannon

Situational positions:

FB — James Devlin

Scatback — James White

‘Move’ TE — Jacob Hollister

Blocking TE — Dwayne Allen

Gadget — Cordarrelle Patterson (Patterson projected to start in three WR sets Weeks 1-4)

Swing Tackle — LaAdrian Waddle

 

* * * * *

For the Patriots defense, the 2017 season ended just as it began, with the unit being thumped by a more talented offensive unit.. The ominous Week 1 loss to the Chiefs sparked early trouble, but as always the Patriots trekked along with the ‘bend-but-don’t-break’ defense for the rest of the season leading up to Super Bowl LII. Then, the wheels came off.

Now, Brian Flores takes over, filling in for Matt Patricia’s shoes. In two preseason games, Flores has appeared to mix in more exotic blitzes than the conservative preseason. But again, it’s preseason so that means little. The Patriots major hole in 2017 was a lack of a pass rush, and a below-average front seven in general. Players like Eric Lee and Marquis Flowers were thrust into starting roles down the stretch. Both Lee and Flowers were released Saturday, failing to make the 53-man roster. With the return of Dont’a Hightower and the additions of Adrian Clayborn, Danny Shelton and Derek Rivers, the team should see somewhat of a boost in those categories.

In the secondary, the Patriots again will have the experienced safety trio of Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon, but the group’s most important piece will be CB1 Stephon Gilmore. With a full season in New England under his belt, Gilmore should elevate into a top five cornerback in 2018. Belichick will utilize the former Buffalo Bill as a man-to-man piece with the ability to stymie opponents’ No. 1 pass catcher. Generally, Belichick’s defenses work well with a shutdown CB1 anchoring the backend — think Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Aqib Talib and Darrelle Revis. With the exception of Samuel, who was smaller and excelled in zone coverage, the players on that list are elite, physical man-to-man defenders. Gilmore will be that.

The major question comes at CB2, where Eric Rowe will need to step up and provide solid play in man-to-man situations. Between Gilmore (6-foot-1, 202 pounds) and Rowe (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) the Patriots hope to lock up outside receivers with their lengthy, athletic cornerbacks, with less pressure on Rowe, as he’d be asked to cover the team’s No. 2 WR. In the slot, the Patriots will look to Jonathan Jones or rookie Duke Dawson at some point, but their often-used ‘big nickel’ package may be the most used. The formation employs the aforementioned safety trio with both Harmon and McCourty playing a traditional free-ranging safety position, and Chung playing in the as a nickel back who is able to jam receivers and tight ends who line up in the slot.

With Flores at the helm, the Patriots will still employ a mostly-conservative approach to their defense, as similar to recent years. But expect the young play caller to mix a few exotic blitzes into the mix, without leaving the defense vulnerable to getting beat deep by a running back in the passing game, like Cassius Marsh’s coverage assignment versus Kareem Hunt in last season’s Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.

To sum it all up, the defense should improve.

Week 1 Projected defense:

EDGE — Trey Flowers

Interior — Danny Shelton

Interior — Lawrence Guy

EDGE — Adrian Clayborn

LB — Kyle Van Noy

LB — Dont’a Hightower

CB — Stephon Gilmore

CB — Eric Rowe

Nickelback — Patrick Chung

S — Devin McCourty

S — Duron Harmon

Situational positions:

Rotational Interior  — Malcom Brown

Sub Interior Rusher — Adam Butler

Sub Edge Rusher — Derek Rivers

Sub Edge Rusher — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

Slot CB — Jonathan Jones

Slot CB — Duke Dawson Jr. 

 

Projected record: 12-4 (AFC’s No. 2 seed)

With the AFC’s (and AFC East’s) failure to keep up with the NFC’s level of emerging talent-heavy teams, only the Patriots, Jaguars and Steelers hold a legitimate chance at making Super Bowl LIII, with the Chargers, Chiefs and Texans being the conference’s sleepers. The Patriots will miss out on the AFC’s No. 1 seed via a Week 2 loss in Jacksonville. But with a season-long worth of meshing, and Edelman back in the mix, the Patriots will defeat the Jaguars on the road in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their third Super Bowl in a row, and fourth in five years.