With the first full Sunday slate of NFL games in 2023 just a few days away, few teams (maybe none) feel like they’re at a crossroads moment as much as these New England Patriots.
It’s been three years since Tom Brady left what is still the 21st century’s most successful North American sports franchise. But as the fourth post-GOAT campaign kicks off — all while honoring Brady in their Week 1 game versus Philadelphia — that moniker of success is now slow-rolling away, transforming into a frozen moment of time; albeit 20 years worth.
Things have felt a bit stagnant the last few seasons as Belichick mixes and matches ideas and strategies, with nothing concrete in place when it comes to franchise direction other than the building of his new-age (sort of) defense. And really, that’s…OK.
Belichick shed light over the summer on how long it takes to build a team from scratch:
“You know, ’96 was a big year for me here in New England,” Belichick told The 33rd Team/Mike Tannenbaum.
“Developed a great relationship with Mr. (Robert) Kraft and other people in the organization. When the opportunity came in 2000, even though this team was nowhere near the team we left in ’96 — it had declined quite a bit — there were still some pillars here that we could build with.
“I would say that by ’03 — even though we won in ’01 — that this was a pretty, pretty good football team in all three phases of the game. It kind of took the same basic four-year window that it took in Cleveland. We were fortunate to win in ’01, but I would say by ’03, ’04 we had one of the better teams in the league.”
Belichick is right. Modern day NFL coverage (debate shows, social media, etc.) has turned the analysis of any sort of rebuild/multi-year team-building into a frenzy of mostly engagement-seeking headlines and hysterics.
When Brady left in 2019, the Patriots had become cap-strapped, with their mini-Saints/Rams-like handling of Brady’s contract toward the end playing a major factor. They had absolutely no cap space in 2020, a year in which they paid Cam Newton just $1 million-$2 million to start at QB. They also had an aging team with bottom-of-the-league talent at the skill positions, fielding Damiere Byrd as it’s top WR option on the outside. So let’s just say, 2020 shouldn’t really count toward the rebuild. It was more of a standalone “reset,” specifically with their cap situation.
But 2021 and 2022 do count.
I’m not going to bore you with Matt Patricia-to-Bill O’Brien analysis. We’ve been through six or seven months of that. But the wasted 2022 season did feel like a setback. And despite some success in 2021, the end of that year was pretty discouraging, as well.
So even the most patient and knowledgeable people in the NFL media space have to admit that bills are beginning to come due. We’re not exactly sure what needs to happen this season with Belichick and the Patriots, but we know it must be something that can be registered as a positive takeaway as the team heads into 2024. There needs to be some direction, or a clear vision, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
To me, the biggest question and set of sub-questions with this Patriots organization at current is— where do they fit in in an era that Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs define as much as Belichick, Brady and the Patriots did in the 2000s and 2010s? Will they eventually be challengers? How do they get there?
Where does New England fit in an era of: the mobile quarterback, Shanahan offenses, speed over power at the skill position, lighter defensive boxes and front seven defenders, one-gap (or “gap and a half“) defensive lineman over old-school, big-ass two-gappers?
My take: even with the changes in today’s game, Belichick can be counted on to build a successful defense. But on offense, we should be in wait-and-see mode.
Publicly, Robert and Jonathan Kraft have voiced that a season like last year is unacceptable, while also toeing the line enough in praise of Belichick, his methods, and his job secruity. As Belichick approaches Don Shula’s all-time wins record (18 wins away; including playoffs), my guess is Belichick has a longer leash than public perception. But make no mistake, a ghastly 2023 season could mean the end. But I don’t see that happening.
Now, let’s get to the fun stuff.
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Week 1 Projected offense:
QB — Mac Jones
RB — Rhamondre Stevenson
X’ WR — Devante Parker
‘Z’ WR — Kendrick Bourne
‘Power’ Slot — JuJu Smith-Schuster
‘Y’/Traditional TE — Hunter Henry
LT — Trent Brown
LG — Cole Strange
C — David Andrews
RG — Michael Onwenu
RT — Calvin Anderson/Sidy Sow
Situational positions:
Early-down rotational RB — Ezekiel Elliott
‘Big Slot’/F-TE — Mike Gesicki
“Jitterbug” Slot — Demario Douglas
‘X’ WR/”Speed”/downfield Slot — Tyquan Thornton
‘X’ WR/’Z’ WR — Kayshon Boutte
Top backup Guard — Atonio Mafi
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🏈 With a fifth-year option decision looming for the Patriots on Mac Jones in May, and a dynamite-looking QB draft class upcoming, Year 3 seems like the deciding season for Jones’ Patriots future. His sophomore slump can mostly be chalked up to the coaching/scheme disaster, but there’s real, there’s warranted concern over Jones’ ability to throw under pressure/against the blitz versus an NFL pass rush. He was 42nd among QBs in passer rating versus five or more rushers (70.7) last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. He also ranked 43rd out of 43 qualifying QBs in percentage of passes versus five or more rushers that resulted in positive EPA (28.4%). Still, it’s no surprise that all of Jones’ stats and efficiency metrics were way down last year. The Bailey Zappe “battle” for the starting job was always a silly story. Zappe doesn’t have the NFL ready-traits or arm that Jones has, but Zappe did seem a bit more comfortable in traditional Patriots/Brady shotgun-spread,”survey the field” point guard/distributor snaps. I think there’s something to be said for how Jones’ college experience translates to the pros, or at least, under Belichick in a traditional Patriots offense. The good news is, there’s no one more qualified than Bill O’Brien when it comes to making Jones more comfortable with the teachings of traditional Patriots concepts fused with Alabama/college-level designs. Under-center play-action passing, RPOs (and not the freshman-level bubble screens from last year) and shotgun, five-wide matchup hunting (Hoss Y Juke, etc.) are all on the menu. The hope is Jones fits two seasons of progression/improvement into 2023, putting him back on a normal progression path heading into 2024/Year 4. It may be a lot to ask, but it’s possible.
🏈 Rhamondre Stevenson, nicknamed “Franchise,” is the most exciting skill-position player the Patriots have. He’s an anomaly as a larger back (6-0, 227 lbs) with the ball carrier vision, quickness and make-you-miss ability of a smaller back. After Stevenson, the Patriots are mostly trotting out a RB-WR-TE group that falls somewhere between “what a great 2018 skill position group!” jokes and “this is definitely enough to keep pace with other offenses.” But there is reason for optimisim with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, even if with his declining play in Dallas. Elliott can still spell Stevenson as a between-the-tackles, early-down rusher and as an occasional pick-up-the-blitz blocker on third-down passing situations. Stevenson was clearly gassed at the end of last season, and the 2022 draft class duo of Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris was not enough on the depth chart. Strong, for one, was clearly drafted with the ham-handed idea of implementing an outside/wide zone running game already in mind for 2022, an endeavor that they abandoned pretty early on last season. Under O’Brien, expect a mix of gap-scheme power runs and shotgun inside-zone looks. Stevenson and Elliott should thrive there. The only possible issue is the effectiveness of classic Patriots power runs without a fullback on the roster.
🏈 At tight end, the Patriots subbed out Jonnu Smith for Mike Gesicki. New England never knew what to do with Smith, who should fit perfectly right back into Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta as an off-the-line/H-Back type in their zone-running/play-action scheme. Gesicki is purely a “big” slot receiver as opposed to a ‘Y’ tight end, like Hunter Henry. So like rookie receiving tight end Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo, the line between 11 and 12 personnel is blurred with Gesicki on the field as an athletic seam-stretcher and red zone threat. Still, I expect the Patriots to operate mostly with three pure wide receivers as their ‘base’ offense, as opposed to a Gesicki-Hunter Henry, “11.5” personnel group as a snap-hogging unit. I don’t think the Henry-Smith disappointment has necessarily given the Patriots extreme pause on high usage of Gesicki and Henry on the field at the same time at a high rate, but they know this is not a dynamic, Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez duo, or a “twin towers” Y-TE tag team that they briefly fielded with Gronk and Martellus Bennett. Gesicki is not an in-line blocker, and even Henry is not the best blocking tight end. Gesicki’s intial presence could come the way of red zone snaps with Henry, where he can open things up for a struggling red zone offense, as well as spelling Henry on some third-and-long snaps as a field stretcher on clear passing downs.
🏈 Elsewhere in the receiving core, New England added former Chiefs Super Bowl hero JuJu Smith-Schuster in place of Jakobi Meyers, and picked up two receivers in the 6th round that both made the 53-man roster in Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas. Losing Meyers hurts. The former NC State QB-turned-WR did everything right, and has developed into one of the league’s better route runners as well as sure-handed possession guys. But in New England, the high-volume Z/slot role needs to be an explosive, yards-aftert-catch option, and despite some impressive jump balls and top-of-route moves at 6-2, 200 pounds, Meyers has been one of the worst YAC players in football, with his YAC EPA over expected per catch since 2021 (-0.26) registering dead last in the league. In Smith-Schuster, New England now has last season’s fourth-best YAC per reception (min 50 REC) receiver from last year, with his 6.4 YAC per REC number below just Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown. Smith-Schuster had roughly a 60-40 boundary-slot snap split with KC last year, thriving on perimeter sit routes and Malcolm Mitchell Super Bowl 51-esque comeback patterns, as well as RPO slants and deep crossers both off-the-line in bunch/stack looks and on-the-line from the slot and peremiter. I expect JuJu to play much more in the slot than boundary in New England, where O-Brien will look to utilize him underneath as a bully-ball YAC weapon at 6-1, 215 lbs. New England’s ‘X-WR’ option is again DeVante Parker. Parker (6-3, 215 pounds) generates almost no separation but makes up for it by being one of the best jump-ball/contested catch players in football. Of players with at least 34 receptions last season, or deemed as “starters,” Parker finished first in average depth of target (15.9 aDOT), just ahead of fellow X-receivers like Gabriel Davis, D.J. Chark and George Pickens.
🏈 Parker and Smith-Schuster are capable, but the Patriots need receivers who can separate. Tyquan Thornton is beginning the season on IR (can return after 4 games), and with New England’s sketchy draft history at the position, it’s worth wondering if Thornton may only be a WR 4/5 option as a designed deep-shot target a la 2003 2nd-round pick WR Bethel Johnson. The rookies show some promise, with Boutte providing some gritty YAC ability and inside-outside versatility, but he’s not yet a starting option. Demario Douglas is much closer as a “jitterbug” slot option the Patriots usually covet. Douglas packed on muscle over the summer to get to 5-8, 192 pounds. He has speed and quickness. His route tree and movement skills resemble sort of cross between some early-mid 2000s Deion Branch and Julian Edelman. Although, I don’t think Douglas can get to the third level like Branch. He’s not a deep option. The Patriots have largely kept Douglas under wraps in the preseason. I’d temper expectations on Douglas being an immediate boost to the offense, but there is promise. New England’s X-factor in the WR core happens to be Kendrick Bourne. He was in the dog house last year, but put up a mighty efficient 2021 campaign. He’s the most versatile inside-outside option they have. Even dating back to his San Francisco days, he was a tough, clutch possession guy on 3rd-and-9’s or so for Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s become more dynamic in New England, thriving more after the catch, on deeper routes, and with creating more separation. It’s a concern that he may be their best separator, but Bourne is definitely a damn good receiver. He projects as the starting ‘Z’ receiver in 11 personnel with Parker (X) and Smith-Schuster (‘power’ slot).
🏈 The offensive line easily slots in as the most concerning on offense. This could be their achilles heel. But when healthy, New England should have four of their five spots figured out, which isn’t bad. Trent Brown is aging but still a solid left tackle. The same with David Andrews and his leadership/skills at center. At guard, Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu could vault into a Top-5 duo, but each enter Week 1 banged up. Onwenu is one of the best gap-scheme mauling blockers in the league. Last year’s push to outside zone running didn’t cater to his strengths. Strange, on the other hand, would slot in nicely to such a scheme, but he has the toughness and technique to thrive in power looks, as well as pass blocking. If neither can go, or if New England plans to move Onwenu back to right tackle, fifth-round rookie Atonio Mafi from UCLA would step in. Mafi (6-3, 330 pounds) is a power-running blocker in the mold of Onwenu. He could eventually be Onwenu’s replacement if the latter maxes out of New England in free agency this offseason. The big question mark up front is at right tackle, where Calvin Anderson projects as the starter Week 1, if he can go. If not, rookie converted-guard Sidy Sow likely slots in over recent trade options Tyrone Wheatley Jr. and Vederian Lowe. There’s a chance Anderson becomes another iteration of 2018 Trent Brown in New England as a mostly unproven player with promise. Stories like that were common with former offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. New offensive line coach Adrian Klemm, Belichick’s first ever draft pick as New England’s head coach, was brought in to fix things up front. He’ll be relied upon heavily in the early going to coach up whoever mans the right tackle spot.
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Week 1 Projected defense:
Interior/Nose Tackle — Davon Godchaux
Interior— Lawrence Guy
Interior/EDGE — Deatrich Wise Jr.
EDGE (stand-up) — Matt Judon
Off-ball LB/Thumper — Ja’Whaun Bentley
Safety/LB (box) — Jabrill Peppers
CB1 (boundary/cover marquee ‘X’ receivers) — Christian Gonzalez
CB2/Slot CB (field/cover ‘Z’ and marquee slot receivers) — Jonathan Jones
STAR/Nickel (man-covering TEs) — Jalen Mills
Safety (Roaming/Robber/Box) — Kyle Dugger
Safety (Deep) — Adrian Phillips
Situational positions:
Interior/Nickel + Dime — Christian Barmore
EDGE/Nickel + Dime pass rusher (passing downs) — Josh Uche
EDGE (stand-up and hand-in-dirt)/Interior — Keion White
Off-ball LB/Dime Back — Marte Mapu
CB3/Boundary CB — Jack Jones
CB4 (Boundary + Slot) — Marcus Jones
‘Big’ Slot CB (Man-covering TEs) — Shaun Wade
Safety (Quarter/Zone-coverage) – Myles Bryant
EDGE (early down, edge setting, depth/rotational) — Anfernee Jennings
Off-ball LB (depth/rotational) — Mack Wilson Sr.
3-4 interior (depth/rotational) — Sam Roberts
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🏈 Per usual, expect the Patriots to be multiple on defense, stressing odd 3-4 looks or 3-3-5/2-4-5 fronts on first down, while also playing a ton of ‘Big’ Nickel and Dime with safeties. They’ll adjust for opponent, play man-heavy or zone-heavy from one game to the next, and should be a versatile, top-end unit. We’ll begin with a note on the Patriots safety group. And really, these hybrid defenders do everything from playing cornerback, off-ball linebacker, slot, EDGE, in man coverage, etc., that they are really just listed as safeties, and nothing more. “I think the Patriots defense is so good,” ESPN‘s Mina Kimes said on her podcast (The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny) this summer. “I compare them to the Niners {49ers} on offense in a way…where there’s like 4 or 5 safeties, I guess, or linebackers…they might be blitzing, they might be playing in the box, they might be playing in the post…Defenses always talk about how they want to be be multiple, but the Patriots are living it and building it in a way that is so modern, and allows them to dictate to offenses, rather than being reactive, and it’s so cool. They play the most Dime {personnel} of any team. Kyle Dugger may be my most favorite player in the NFL, to be honest.”
🏈 There’s been warranted talk about what Devin McCourty’s retirement does to this group. New England already veered to more two-high safety looks with D-Mac there last year, with their Cover-2 (14% to 16.8%) and Cover-4/Quarters usage (2.5% to 9%) increasing from 2021 to 2022. Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger project as the pre-snap two-high safeties. But it would be a waste for Dugger to not primarily play as a robber or roaming defender in the middle of the field and the box. He’s a playmaker. Phillips can handle early down free safety duties, and Myles Bryant should be able to step back in to the “Duron Harmon” role as a deep safety in Dime/Quarter looks on third-and-long after his two seasons struggling in man coverage on slot WRs on third down. Jalen Mills is another CB-turned-back-to-safety this season for New England, as he should see his fair set of snaps as a nickel/STAR defender in man coverage on third down versus athletic tight ends in the slot, and he can also play two-high safety. Jabrill Peppers is one of the more exciting players on this team. Belichick has praised him heavily this summer, and despite some two-high safety snaps in the preseason, I expect Peppers to play at the second level and near the line of scrimmage. He should be more linebacker than safety. He’ll man-cover running backs, play shallow zones, and you may see him play primarily in the slot, at linebacker or on the edge to defend the Eagles run game this Sunday in Week 1.
🏈 The pass off from Peppers to third-round rookie Marte Mapu is a great time to talk about the second level of New England’s defense. Peppers and Dugger should spend some time in the box as hybrid safety-linebackers, but in a perfect world Mapu will transition from safety/LB to full-time off-ball linebacker in New England. From playing next to thumper Ja’Whaun Bentley in 3-4/2-4-5 looks in early downs, to playing Dime Back/$backer in passing situations, the versatile, 6-3, 230-pound Mapu has the range, athleticism and linebacker instincts to thrive at the second level. Bentley is a team captain and enforcer who should help defend traditional power-running games like Las Vegas and Pittsburgh on the schedule, but for opponents such as Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and even Buffalo and Kansas City, Mapu would come in handy as a QB spy. Last year, Buffalo, Chicago and others took advantage of Belichick’s bulkier, Bentley-Jahlani Tavi looks up front. And Mack Wilson, who returns as a depth piece/special teamer, didn’t have the focus or instincts to help, either. Even versus Miami’s speed and outside zone offense, Mapu could be Belichick’s poor man version of Fred Warner as a new-age defender. New England just has to get faster at the second level. There will be games where an old-school 3-4 with Bentley/Tavai will work just fine, but in most contests, Mapu and Peppers would be better compliments to Bentley underneath.
🏈 At cornerback, regardless of where others line up, Christian Gonzalez was brought in to be the classic Belichick archetype man-coverage CB1 on the boundary. From Ty Law to Aqib Talib to Darrelle Revis to Stephon Gilmore, Gonzalez is next in line as a blue-chip prospect brought in to set the pecking order for a defense that loves to play man coverage. It’s unlikely Gonzalez catches on as quick as, say, Sauce Gardner. There will be some growing pains. But the expectation should be that Gonzalez is much more comfortable in the Patriots zone-coverage looks near the end of the the season as opposed to September. Even with more two-high looks, the Patriots want to sit near the top of the league in Cover-1 (26% in 2022) and Cover-3 (37% in ’22). Gonzalez is a perfect, lengthy (6-2, 205) cover-man with speed (4.38 40-yard dash) and fluidity to play press-man and Cover-3. Jonathan Jones is the team’s best returning cornerback. He’s better in the slot than on the outside but he improved on the perimeter as the season went on. Jon Jones projects to cover marquee ‘Z’ and slot receivers while Gonzalez covers high-profile ‘X-receivers.’ For instance, expect Gonzalez on A.J. Brown and Jones on DeVonta Smith in Week 1 on third-down man coverage looks. Still Gonzalez, is quick enough to guard Z-receivers. Versus Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Miami, there will be a hefty usage of zone coverage, but Gonzalez can keep up with someone like Waddle in man with some robber help. In a perfect world, Jack Jones gets back on the field to guard WR3’s on the boundary opposite Gonzalez, allowing Jon Jones to play in the slot. Jack Jones is an above-average aggressive defender on the outside, particularly in zone coverage. There’s some boom or bust there, a la Trevon Diggs/Marcus Peters, but he’s solid boundary option. The idea for the CBs is to play step-for-step man coverage with inside or outside leverage, where they can funnel receivers to the sideline/perimeter, or into the likes of Kyle Dugger as a robber cutting off crossing routes in the middle of the field. Down the depth chart, Marcus Jones has the body type and speed/quickness of a slot defender but seems like a boundary depth option at this point. And Shaun Wade projects as Jalen Mills’ back-up covering tight ends on third down and returning to the slot as a hybrid CB/safety option as opposed to perimeter CB.
🏈 At the line of scrimmage, the Patriots return a solid unit that finished tied for third in sacks (54) and helped produce 30 takeaways (t-2nd), including 19 interceptions (t-2nd). Matthew Judon remains the best player on the team as a solid pass rusher coming off a 15.5-sack season (28 sacks in 2 years). He also holds up well setting the edge in the run game on early downs in the team’s “Elephant” role. Josh Uche still likely fits in only on Nickel/Dime looks and passing downs, but even situationally, he’s an important factor. He had 11.5 sacks last year in a limited role. Opposite Judon at 3-4 OLB has been Jahlani Tavai or Anfernee Jennings, but in a more 3-3-5 base, team captain Deatrich Wise (7.5 sacks in 2022) has been the opposite EDGE as a hand-in-the-dirt option mixing his natural 4-3 DE attributes with learned 3-4 DE traits. The X-factor with this group up front is second-round pick Keion White. The North Carolina native/Georgia Tech grad is a built-by-Belichick-in-a-lab specimen at 6-5, 290 pounds with the ability play anywhere from 3-tech/defensive tackle on passing downs to stand-up EDGE in 3-4 looks and third-down passing situations. He also does everything in between, including 3-4 DE/5-tech, man-coverage on running backs, and more. If he can manage as a stand-up EDGE on early downs and as an inside rusher next to Christian Barmore on third down, that’s probably where he will fit best. I watched a bit of 2007 Patriots (Super Bowl 42…gulp) film this offseason, and Adalius Thomas spent some time as an off-ball linebacker guarding running backs and playing the pass at 270 pounds, but he really was an early-down 3-4 OLB and hand-in-the-dirt pass rusher at defensive end on passing downs. I see a lot of Adalius Thomas in White’s role. if Barmore can shake off a injury-riddled Year 2 to provide a pass-rush spark in the interior, an Uche-White-Barmore-Judon pass-rushing lineup could wreck absolute havoc on opposing quarterbacks. It’s also worth wondering if Barmore can begin two-gapping some on early downs. Right now, the Patriots will likely field Davon Godchaux at nose tackle and Lawrence Guy at 5-tech in the interior, meaning those two take the snaps on 2-4-5 looks, with Wise coming in on 3-3-5 base that they veered toward in 2022. But in pure 3-4 snaps there’s a role for Barmore opposite Guy as a 5-tech, if he can stave off second-year man Sam Roberts. Barmore may also take snaps away from Guy in base looks. Elsewhere, New England is thin at pure nose tackle with Carl Davis gone. Daniel Eukuale returns as a situational interior pass rusher and the reunion with Trey Flowers could turn into something at midseason, although Flowers’ role crosses over some with Keion White’s.
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Projected record: 10-7 (AFC’s No. 7 seed)
Only 12 teams finished with a positive +/- point differential last year. The Patriots (+17) ranked 10th in the league in that metric despite a 8-9 record caused by a disastrous offense and a few heartbreaking losses. New England went 7-9 in 2020 with a severely undermanned squad that could have easily won just three or four games. There’s a higher floor with Belichick-coached teams. Now Belichick has added three rookie defenders with promise to a defensive unit that finished first last year in weighted DVOA. The Hoodie has also improved his coaching unit with key hires in O’Brien and Klemm. New England does face the toughest schedule in the league based off of Vegas oddsmakers’ projected opponent win totals, but in a division and conference that looks perhaps the best it’s ever been on paper, there’s bound to be a few disappointing teams. That shouldn’t be the Patriots, who should fare much better on offense. Even just plain average on offense would dramatically raise their win total. No one is going to pop off for them in fantasy football, but a mix of under-center/shotgun formations specializing in power-running, RPOs and a quick-passing game should be a modern enough approach to a classic Patriots offense. Bottom line — slam the over on Vegas’ 7.5 O/U win total. This team likely isn’t making a deep playoff run, but making the playoffs is achievable. I see them bowing out honorably in the Wild Card round, leaving fewer question marks heading into 2024. Something to build on.
No Guts No Glory 