Tag: Matthew Judon

Mac Jones and Bill Belichick -- 2023 New England Patriots Training Camp

2023 New England Patriots Preview: Make or break season?

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

With the first full Sunday slate of NFL games in 2023 just a few days away, few teams (maybe none) feel like they’re at a crossroads moment as much as these New England Patriots.

It’s been three years since Tom Brady left what is still the 21st century’s most successful North American sports franchise. But as the fourth post-GOAT campaign kicks off — all while honoring Brady in their Week 1 game versus Philadelphia — that moniker of success is now slow-rolling away, transforming into a frozen moment of time; albeit 20 years worth.

Things have felt a bit stagnant the last few seasons as Belichick mixes and matches ideas and strategies, with nothing concrete in place when it comes to franchise direction other than the building of his new-age (sort of) defense. And really, that’s…OK.

Belichick shed light over the summer on how long it takes to build a team from scratch:

“You know, ’96 was a big year for me here in New England,” Belichick told The 33rd Team/Mike Tannenbaum.

“Developed a great relationship with Mr. (Robert) Kraft and other people in the organization. When the opportunity came in 2000, even though this team was nowhere near the team we left in ’96 — it had declined quite a bit — there were still some pillars here that we could build with.

“I would say that by ’03 — even though we won in ’01 — that this was a pretty, pretty good football team in all three phases of the game. It kind of took the same basic four-year window that it took in Cleveland. We were fortunate to win in ’01, but I would say by ’03, ’04 we had one of the better teams in the league.”

Belichick is right. Modern day NFL coverage (debate shows, social media, etc.) has turned the analysis of any sort of rebuild/multi-year team-building into a frenzy of mostly engagement-seeking headlines and hysterics.

When Brady left in 2019, the Patriots had become cap-strapped, with their mini-Saints/Rams-like handling of Brady’s contract toward the end playing a major factor. They had absolutely no cap space in 2020, a year in which they paid Cam Newton just $1 million-$2 million to start at QB. They also had an aging team with bottom-of-the-league talent at the skill positions, fielding Damiere Byrd as it’s top WR option on the outside. So let’s just say, 2020 shouldn’t really count toward the rebuild. It was more of a standalone “reset,” specifically with their cap situation.

But 2021 and 2022 do count.

I’m not going to bore you with Matt Patricia-to-Bill O’Brien analysis. We’ve been through six or seven months of that. But the wasted 2022 season did feel like a setback. And despite some success in 2021, the end of that year was pretty discouraging, as well.

So even the most patient and knowledgeable people in the NFL media space have to admit that bills are beginning to come due. We’re not exactly sure what needs to happen this season with Belichick and the Patriots, but we know it must be something that can be registered as a positive takeaway as the team heads into 2024. There needs to be some direction, or a clear vision, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

To me, the biggest question and set of sub-questions with this Patriots organization at current is— where do they fit in in an era that Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs define as much as Belichick, Brady and the Patriots did in the 2000s and 2010s? Will they eventually be challengers? How do they get there?

Where does New England fit in an era of: the mobile quarterback, Shanahan offenses, speed over power at the skill position, lighter defensive boxes and front seven defenders, one-gap (or “gap and a half“) defensive lineman over old-school, big-ass two-gappers?

My take: even with the changes in today’s game, Belichick can be counted on to build a successful defense. But on offense, we should be in wait-and-see mode.

Publicly, Robert and Jonathan Kraft have voiced that a season like last year is unacceptable, while also toeing the line enough in praise of Belichick, his methods, and his job secruity. As Belichick approaches Don Shula’s all-time wins record (18 wins away; including playoffs), my guess is Belichick has a longer leash than public perception. But make no mistake, a ghastly 2023 season could mean the end. But I don’t see that happening.

Now, let’s get to the fun stuff.

*******

Week 1 Projected offense:

QB — Mac Jones

RB — Rhamondre Stevenson 

X’ WR — Devante Parker

‘Z’ WR — Kendrick Bourne

‘Power’ Slot — JuJu Smith-Schuster

‘Y’/Traditional TE — Hunter Henry

LT — Trent Brown 

LG — Cole Strange 

C — David Andrews 

RG — Michael Onwenu

RT — Calvin Anderson/Sidy Sow

Situational positions: 

Early-down rotational RB — Ezekiel Elliott

‘Big Slot’/F-TE — Mike Gesicki

“Jitterbug” Slot  — Demario Douglas 

‘X’ WR/”Speed”/downfield Slot  — Tyquan Thornton

‘X’ WR/’Z’ WR — Kayshon Boutte

Top backup Guard — Atonio Mafi

* * * * * * *

🏈 With a fifth-year option decision looming for the Patriots on Mac Jones in May, and a dynamite-looking QB draft class upcoming, Year 3 seems like the deciding season for Jones’ Patriots future. His sophomore slump can mostly be chalked up to the coaching/scheme disaster, but there’s real, there’s warranted concern over Jones’ ability to throw under pressure/against the blitz versus an NFL pass rush. He was 42nd among QBs in passer rating versus five or more rushers (70.7) last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. He also ranked 43rd out of 43 qualifying QBs in percentage of passes versus five or more rushers that resulted in positive EPA (28.4%). Still, it’s no surprise that all of Jones’ stats and efficiency metrics were way down last year. The Bailey Zappe “battle” for the starting job was always a silly story. Zappe doesn’t have the NFL ready-traits or arm that Jones has, but Zappe did seem a bit more comfortable in traditional Patriots/Brady shotgun-spread,”survey the field” point guard/distributor snaps. I think there’s something to be said for how Jones’ college experience translates to the pros, or at least, under Belichick in a traditional Patriots offense. The good news is, there’s no one more qualified than Bill O’Brien when it comes to making Jones more comfortable with the teachings of traditional Patriots concepts fused with Alabama/college-level designs. Under-center play-action passing, RPOs (and not the freshman-level bubble screens from last year) and shotgun, five-wide matchup hunting (Hoss Y Juke, etc.) are all on the menu. The hope is Jones fits two seasons of progression/improvement into 2023, putting him back on a normal progression path heading into 2024/Year 4. It may be a lot to ask, but it’s possible.

🏈 Rhamondre Stevenson, nicknamed “Franchise,”  is the most exciting skill-position player the Patriots have. He’s an anomaly as a larger back (6-0, 227 lbs) with the ball carrier vision, quickness and make-you-miss ability of a smaller back. After Stevenson, the Patriots are mostly trotting out a RB-WR-TE group that falls somewhere between “what a great 2018 skill position group!” jokes and “this is definitely enough to keep pace with other offenses.” But there is reason for optimisim with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, even if with his declining play in Dallas. Elliott can still spell Stevenson as a between-the-tackles, early-down rusher and as an occasional pick-up-the-blitz blocker on third-down passing situations. Stevenson was clearly gassed at the end of last season, and the 2022 draft class duo of Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris was not enough on the depth chart. Strong, for one, was clearly drafted with the ham-handed idea of implementing an outside/wide zone running game already in mind for 2022, an endeavor that they abandoned pretty early on last season. Under O’Brien, expect a mix of gap-scheme power runs and shotgun inside-zone looks. Stevenson and Elliott should thrive there. The only possible issue is the effectiveness of classic Patriots power runs without a fullback on the roster.

🏈 At tight end, the Patriots subbed out Jonnu Smith for Mike Gesicki. New England never knew what to do with Smith, who should fit perfectly right back into Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta as an off-the-line/H-Back type in their zone-running/play-action scheme. Gesicki is purely a “big” slot receiver as opposed to a ‘Y’ tight end, like Hunter Henry. So like rookie receiving tight end Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo, the line between 11 and 12 personnel is blurred with Gesicki on the field as an athletic seam-stretcher and red zone threat. Still, I expect the Patriots to operate mostly with three pure wide receivers as their ‘base’ offense, as opposed to a Gesicki-Hunter Henry, “11.5” personnel group as a snap-hogging unit. I don’t think the Henry-Smith disappointment has necessarily given the Patriots extreme pause on high usage of Gesicki and Henry on the field at the same time at a high rate, but they know this is not a dynamic, Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez duo, or a “twin towers” Y-TE tag team that they briefly fielded with Gronk and Martellus Bennett. Gesicki is not an in-line blocker, and even Henry is not the best blocking tight end. Gesicki’s intial presence could come the way of red zone snaps with Henry, where he can open things up for a struggling red zone offense, as well as spelling Henry on some third-and-long snaps as a field stretcher on clear passing downs.

🏈 Elsewhere in the receiving core, New England added former Chiefs Super Bowl hero JuJu Smith-Schuster in place of Jakobi Meyers, and picked up two receivers in the 6th round that both made the 53-man roster in Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas. Losing Meyers hurts. The former NC State QB-turned-WR did everything right, and has developed into one of the league’s better route runners as well as sure-handed possession guys. But in New England, the high-volume Z/slot role needs to be an explosive, yards-aftert-catch option, and despite some impressive jump balls and top-of-route moves at 6-2, 200 pounds, Meyers has been one of the worst YAC players in football, with his YAC EPA over expected per catch since 2021 (-0.26) registering dead last in the league. In Smith-Schuster, New England now has last season’s fourth-best YAC per reception (min 50 REC) receiver from last year, with his 6.4 YAC per REC number below just Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown. Smith-Schuster had roughly a 60-40 boundary-slot snap split with KC last year, thriving on perimeter sit routes and Malcolm Mitchell Super Bowl 51-esque comeback patterns, as well as RPO slants and deep crossers both off-the-line in bunch/stack looks and on-the-line from the slot and peremiter. I expect JuJu to play much more in the slot than boundary in New England, where O-Brien will look to utilize him underneath as a bully-ball YAC weapon at 6-1, 215 lbs. New England’s ‘X-WR’ option is again DeVante Parker. Parker (6-3, 215 pounds) generates almost no separation but makes up for it by being one of the best jump-ball/contested catch players in football. Of players with at least 34 receptions last season, or deemed as “starters,” Parker finished first in average depth of target (15.9 aDOT), just ahead of fellow X-receivers like Gabriel Davis, D.J. Chark and George Pickens.

🏈 Parker and Smith-Schuster are capable, but the Patriots need receivers who can separate. Tyquan Thornton is beginning the season on IR (can return after 4 games), and with New England’s sketchy draft history at the position, it’s worth wondering if Thornton may only be a WR 4/5 option as a designed deep-shot target a la 2003 2nd-round pick WR Bethel Johnson. The rookies show some promise, with Boutte providing some gritty YAC ability and inside-outside versatility, but he’s not yet a starting option. Demario Douglas is much closer as a “jitterbug” slot option the Patriots usually covet. Douglas packed on muscle over the summer to get to 5-8, 192 pounds. He has speed and quickness. His route tree and movement skills resemble sort of cross between some early-mid 2000s Deion Branch and Julian Edelman. Although, I don’t think Douglas can get to the third level like Branch. He’s not a deep option. The Patriots have largely kept Douglas under wraps in the preseason. I’d temper expectations on Douglas being an immediate boost to the offense, but there is promise. New England’s X-factor in the WR core happens to be Kendrick Bourne. He was in the dog house last year, but put up a mighty efficient 2021 campaign. He’s the most versatile inside-outside option they have. Even dating back to his San Francisco days, he was a tough, clutch possession guy on 3rd-and-9’s or so for Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s become more dynamic in New England, thriving more after the catch, on deeper routes, and with creating more separation. It’s a concern that he may be their best separator, but Bourne is definitely a damn good receiver. He projects as the starting ‘Z’ receiver in 11 personnel with Parker (X) and Smith-Schuster (‘power’ slot).

🏈 The offensive line easily slots in as the most concerning on offense. This could be their achilles heel. But when healthy, New England should have four of their five spots figured out, which isn’t bad. Trent Brown is aging but still a solid left tackle. The same with David Andrews and his leadership/skills at center. At guard, Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu could vault into a Top-5 duo, but each enter Week 1 banged up. Onwenu is one of the best gap-scheme mauling blockers in the league. Last year’s push to outside zone running didn’t cater to his strengths. Strange, on the other hand, would slot in nicely to such a scheme, but he has the toughness and technique to thrive in power looks, as well as pass blocking. If neither can go, or if New England plans to move Onwenu back to right tackle, fifth-round rookie Atonio Mafi from UCLA would step in. Mafi (6-3, 330 pounds) is a power-running blocker in the mold of Onwenu. He could eventually be Onwenu’s replacement if the latter maxes out of New England in free agency this offseason. The big question mark up front is at right tackle, where Calvin Anderson projects as the starter Week 1, if he can go. If not, rookie converted-guard Sidy Sow likely slots in over recent trade options Tyrone Wheatley Jr. and Vederian Lowe. There’s a chance Anderson becomes another iteration of 2018 Trent Brown in New England as a mostly unproven player with promise. Stories like that were common with former offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. New offensive line coach Adrian Klemm, Belichick’s first ever draft pick as New England’s head coach, was brought in to fix things up front. He’ll be relied upon heavily in the early going to coach up whoever mans the right tackle spot.

*******

Week 1 Projected defense:

Interior/Nose Tackle — Davon Godchaux

Interior— Lawrence Guy

Interior/EDGE — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

EDGE (stand-up) — Matt Judon

Off-ball LB/Thumper — Ja’Whaun Bentley

Safety/LB (box) — Jabrill Peppers

CB1 (boundary/cover marquee ‘X’ receivers) — Christian Gonzalez

CB2/Slot CB (field/cover ‘Z’ and marquee slot receivers) — Jonathan Jones

STAR/Nickel (man-covering TEs) — Jalen Mills

Safety (Roaming/Robber/Box) — Kyle Dugger

Safety (Deep) — Adrian Phillips 

Situational positions:

Interior/Nickel + Dime — Christian Barmore

EDGE/Nickel + Dime pass rusher (passing downs) — Josh Uche 

EDGE (stand-up and hand-in-dirt)/Interior — Keion White

Off-ball LB/Dime Back — Marte Mapu

CB3/Boundary CB — Jack Jones

CB4 (Boundary + Slot) — Marcus Jones

‘Big’ Slot CB (Man-covering TEs) — Shaun Wade

Safety (Quarter/Zone-coverage) – Myles Bryant

EDGE (early down, edge setting, depth/rotational) — Anfernee Jennings

Off-ball LB (depth/rotational) — Mack Wilson Sr. 

3-4 interior (depth/rotational) — Sam Roberts

* * * * * * *

🏈 Per usual, expect the Patriots to be multiple on defense, stressing odd 3-4 looks or 3-3-5/2-4-5 fronts on first down, while also playing a ton of ‘Big’ Nickel and Dime with safeties. They’ll adjust for opponent, play man-heavy or zone-heavy from one game to the next, and should be a versatile, top-end unit. We’ll begin with a note on the Patriots safety group. And really, these hybrid defenders do everything from playing cornerback, off-ball linebacker, slot, EDGE, in man coverage, etc., that they are really just listed as safeties, and nothing more. “I think the Patriots defense is so good,” ESPN‘s Mina Kimes said on her podcast (The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny) this summer. “I compare them to the Niners {49ers} on offense in a way…where there’s like 4 or 5 safeties, I guess, or linebackers…they might be blitzing, they might be playing in the box, they might be playing in the post…Defenses always talk about how they want to be be multiple, but the Patriots are living it and building it in a way that is so modern, and allows them to dictate to offenses, rather than being reactive, and it’s so cool. They play the most Dime {personnel} of any team. Kyle Dugger may be my most favorite player in the NFL, to be honest.”

🏈 There’s been warranted talk about what Devin McCourty’s retirement does to this group. New England already veered to more two-high safety looks with D-Mac there last year, with their Cover-2 (14% to 16.8%) and Cover-4/Quarters usage (2.5% to 9%) increasing from 2021 to 2022. Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger project as the pre-snap two-high safeties. But it would be a waste for Dugger to not primarily play as a robber or roaming defender in the middle of the field and the box. He’s a playmaker. Phillips can handle early down free safety duties, and Myles Bryant should be able to step back in to the “Duron Harmon” role as a deep safety in Dime/Quarter looks on third-and-long after his two seasons struggling in man coverage on slot WRs on third down. Jalen Mills is another CB-turned-back-to-safety this season for New England, as he should see his fair set of snaps as a nickel/STAR defender in man coverage on third down versus athletic tight ends in the slot, and he can also play two-high safety. Jabrill Peppers is one of the more exciting players on this team. Belichick has praised him heavily this summer, and despite some two-high safety snaps in the preseason, I expect Peppers to play at the second level and near the line of scrimmage. He should be more linebacker than safety. He’ll man-cover running backs, play shallow zones, and you may see him play primarily in the slot, at linebacker or on the edge to defend the Eagles run game this Sunday in Week 1.

🏈 The pass off from Peppers to third-round rookie Marte Mapu is a great time to talk about the second level of New England’s defense. Peppers and Dugger should spend some time in the box as hybrid safety-linebackers, but in a perfect world Mapu will transition from safety/LB to full-time off-ball linebacker in New England. From playing next to thumper Ja’Whaun Bentley in 3-4/2-4-5 looks in early downs, to playing Dime Back/$backer in passing situations, the versatile, 6-3, 230-pound Mapu has the range, athleticism and linebacker instincts to thrive at the second level. Bentley is a team captain and enforcer who should help defend traditional power-running games like Las Vegas and Pittsburgh on the schedule, but for opponents such as Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and even Buffalo and Kansas City, Mapu would come in handy as a QB spy. Last year, Buffalo, Chicago and others took advantage of Belichick’s bulkier, Bentley-Jahlani Tavi looks up front. And Mack Wilson, who returns as a depth piece/special teamer, didn’t have the focus or instincts to help, either. Even versus Miami’s speed and outside zone offense, Mapu could be Belichick’s poor man version of Fred Warner as a new-age defender. New England just has to get faster at the second level. There will be games where an old-school 3-4 with Bentley/Tavai will work just fine, but in most contests, Mapu and Peppers would be better compliments to Bentley underneath.

🏈 At cornerback,  regardless of where others line up, Christian Gonzalez was brought in to be the classic Belichick archetype man-coverage CB1 on the boundary. From Ty Law to Aqib Talib to Darrelle Revis to Stephon Gilmore, Gonzalez is next in line as a blue-chip prospect brought in to set the pecking order for a defense that loves to play man coverage. It’s unlikely Gonzalez catches on as quick as, say, Sauce Gardner. There will be some growing pains. But the expectation should be that Gonzalez is much more comfortable in the Patriots zone-coverage looks near the end of the the season as opposed to September. Even with more two-high looks, the Patriots want to sit near the top of the league in Cover-1 (26% in 2022) and Cover-3 (37% in ’22). Gonzalez is a perfect, lengthy (6-2, 205) cover-man with speed (4.38 40-yard dash) and fluidity to play press-man and Cover-3. Jonathan Jones is the team’s best returning cornerback. He’s better in the slot than on the outside but he improved on the perimeter as the season went on. Jon Jones projects to cover marquee ‘Z’ and slot receivers while Gonzalez covers high-profile ‘X-receivers.’ For instance, expect Gonzalez on A.J. Brown and Jones on DeVonta Smith in Week 1 on third-down man coverage looks. Still Gonzalez, is quick enough to guard Z-receivers. Versus Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Miami, there will be a hefty usage of zone coverage, but Gonzalez can keep up with someone like Waddle in man with some robber help. In a perfect world, Jack Jones gets back on the field to guard WR3’s on the boundary opposite Gonzalez, allowing Jon Jones to play in the slot. Jack Jones is an above-average aggressive defender on the outside, particularly in zone coverage. There’s some boom or bust there, a la Trevon Diggs/Marcus Peters, but he’s solid boundary option. The idea for the CBs is to play step-for-step man coverage with inside or outside leverage, where they can funnel receivers to the sideline/perimeter, or into the likes of Kyle Dugger as a robber cutting off crossing routes in the middle of the field. Down the depth chart, Marcus Jones has the body type and speed/quickness of a slot defender but seems like a boundary depth option at this point. And Shaun Wade projects as Jalen Mills’ back-up covering tight ends on third down and returning to the slot as a hybrid CB/safety option as opposed to perimeter CB.

🏈 At the line of scrimmage, the Patriots return a solid unit that finished tied for third in sacks (54) and helped produce 30 takeaways (t-2nd), including 19 interceptions (t-2nd). Matthew Judon remains the best player on the team as a solid pass rusher coming off a 15.5-sack season (28 sacks in 2 years). He also holds up well setting the edge in the run game on early downs in the team’s “Elephant” role. Josh Uche still likely fits in only on Nickel/Dime looks and passing downs, but even situationally, he’s an important factor. He had 11.5 sacks last year in a limited role. Opposite Judon at 3-4 OLB has been Jahlani Tavai or Anfernee Jennings, but in a more 3-3-5 base, team captain Deatrich Wise (7.5 sacks in 2022) has been the opposite EDGE as a hand-in-the-dirt option mixing his natural 4-3 DE attributes with learned 3-4 DE traits. The X-factor with this group up front is second-round pick Keion White. The North Carolina native/Georgia Tech grad is a built-by-Belichick-in-a-lab specimen at 6-5, 290 pounds with the ability play anywhere from 3-tech/defensive tackle on passing downs to stand-up EDGE in 3-4 looks and third-down passing situations. He also does everything in between, including 3-4 DE/5-tech, man-coverage on running backs, and more. If he can manage as a stand-up EDGE on early downs and as an inside rusher next to Christian Barmore on third down, that’s probably where he will fit best. I watched a bit of 2007 Patriots (Super Bowl 42…gulp) film this offseason, and Adalius Thomas spent some time as an off-ball linebacker guarding running backs and playing the pass at 270 pounds, but he really was an early-down 3-4 OLB and hand-in-the-dirt pass rusher at defensive end on passing downs. I see a lot of Adalius Thomas in White’s role. if Barmore can shake off a injury-riddled Year 2 to provide a pass-rush spark in the interior, an Uche-White-Barmore-Judon pass-rushing lineup could wreck absolute havoc on opposing quarterbacks. It’s also worth wondering if Barmore can begin two-gapping some on early downs. Right now, the Patriots will likely field Davon Godchaux at nose tackle and Lawrence Guy at 5-tech in the interior, meaning those two take the snaps on 2-4-5 looks, with Wise coming in on 3-3-5 base that they veered toward in 2022. But in pure 3-4 snaps there’s a role for Barmore opposite Guy as a 5-tech, if he can stave off second-year man Sam Roberts. Barmore may also take snaps away from Guy in base looks. Elsewhere, New England is thin at pure nose tackle with Carl Davis gone. Daniel Eukuale returns as a situational interior pass rusher and the reunion with Trey Flowers could turn into something at midseason, although Flowers’ role crosses over some with Keion White’s.

* * * * * * *

Projected record: 10-7 (AFC’s No. 7 seed)

Only 12 teams finished with a positive +/- point differential last year. The Patriots (+17) ranked 10th in the league in that metric despite a 8-9 record caused by a disastrous offense and a few heartbreaking losses. New England went 7-9 in 2020 with a severely undermanned squad that could have easily won just three or four games. There’s a higher floor with Belichick-coached teams. Now Belichick has added three rookie defenders with promise to a defensive unit that finished first last year in weighted DVOA. The Hoodie has also improved his coaching unit with key hires in O’Brien and Klemm. New England does face the toughest schedule in the league based off of Vegas oddsmakers’ projected opponent win totals, but in a division and conference that looks perhaps the best it’s ever been on paper, there’s bound to be a few disappointing teams. That shouldn’t be the Patriots, who should fare much better on offense. Even just plain average on offense would dramatically raise their win total. No one is going to pop off for them in fantasy football, but a mix of under-center/shotgun formations specializing in power-running, RPOs and a quick-passing game should be a modern enough approach to a classic Patriots offense. Bottom line — slam the over on Vegas’ 7.5 O/U win total. This team likely isn’t making a deep playoff run, but making the playoffs is achievable. I see them bowing out honorably in the Wild Card round, leaving fewer question marks heading into 2024. Something to build on.

Tom Brady -- The Return

NFL Tuesday Morning Madness Week 4: Three leftover thoughts on Brady-Belichick, Mac Jones & Bucs-Pats

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

An hour or two after an emotional game that bookended a taxing, emotional week, Tom Brady summed up what we all expected was the case for him.

“I’m tired” the seven-time Super Bowl champion, and former Patriot, told NBC Sports‘ Peter King.

“I’m really tired. For a regular-season game, that was pretty intense…God is it hard to come in here and win a football game.”

The defending champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1), had withstood a gutsy (albeit erratic) performance from the New England Patriots (1-3), a team once known for their Super Bowl stardom, now rebuilding, and searching for a better identity.

The final score — Bucs 19, Pats 17.

Here are three takeaways from the conclusion of perhaps the most anticipated regular season game in NFL history:

— The embrace between Tom Brady and the Patriots’ fans and the organization went as well as it could have. From the outpouring of love from fans leading up to the game, pre-game, while Brady broke the all-time passing yards mark (with previous record-holder Drew Brees in attendance) and after the game, to Brady’s embrace with former teammates, Josh McDaniels (before and after the game), Robert Kraft, and yes, even Bill Belichick, for a 23-minute conversation in the Tampa locker room, following the game. Everything went smoothly. It was a great moment.

“Very emotional week,” Brady said to the press afterward. “These guys are like my brothers.”

Brady did his best to remain poised throughout the contest. Overall, he made great decisions and floated some gorgeous passes later in the game as he settled into a contest surrounded by hoopla. But it was obvious from the start, Brady was emotional, and the overall tone and weirdness of the game was omnipresent throughout the battle.

But for all the talk over what transpired over the past few years, it appears Patriots fans can rest easy, that Tom still appreciates his time with New England, forever his football home.

“I’ll be part of this community for a long time…When it’s all said and done, and I retire, you know, I’ll be around, and they’ll get a chance to see more of me” Brady told NBC’s Michelle Tafoya after the game.

Prior to the game, Robert Kraft floated the idea of Brady returning post-career for what would be a fitting ceremony that should, and in all likelihood will happen.

“In the end, I hope and believe he’ll come back here and we’ll give him his red jacket, and he’ll retire a Patriot,” Kraft told Willie McGinest and Kay Adams in an NFL Network interview prior to the game. 

Brady somewhat deflected the notion after the game, seemingly out of respect for the Bucs’ organization, their fan base, and his current obligation to focus in on his current team.

“Are you offering me a one-day contract or did he offer me that?,” Brady said to the media, jokingly, when asked about the scenario after the game.

“He didn’t offer me that, so…I still got some time left with the Bucs, and like I said, really enjoying that. We got a lot to accomplish this year. It’s a tough challenging year. It’s a marathon of a season. It’s only four games in. There is a lot football to be played. It feels good to win on the road, so happy we did that.”

Still, all night, it was clear that Brady is still emotionally invested in the Patriots organization and the New England fans, and that aspect of ‘The Return’ was perfectly executed by all involved. Bravo.

— In the matchup of Brady vs Belichick, the Patriots coach devised a perfectly-schemed game plan versus the Buccaneers’ offense, that was executed well enough for the Patriots to win. I’ll look at the All-22 film to produce my first defensive film review piece of the season for Patriots Wire, if the film is out in time this week, so look out for that, since we’ll know more then, but it appeared New England stuck with pretty clear man-coverage assignments (J.C. Jackson on Mike Evans, Jalen Mills and Chris Godwin, Jonathan Jones and Antonio Brown) with a mixture of middle-of-the-field zone coverage in the deep, intermediate and shallow parts of the field, via safeties, linebackers and on-the-line rushers dropping back into coverage. On clear passing downs, Belichick was able to mask his looks with several “amoeba” formations with most rushers standing in front of the Bucs’ O-line, moving around pre-snap to disguise who was rushing, and who was dropping back into coverage.

Matthew Judon (one sack, two QB hits, four hurries, four run stuffs, two tackles for loss), the only big-ticket 2021 free-agent signing consistently producing for Belichick, was particularly effective, bulldozing past members of Tampa’s stout offensive line at times, while also getting to Brady with his speed and athleticism at other times, and doing his best on the edge in run defense. Jalen Mills was particularly stout on Godwin (three catches, 55 yards) and the Patriots’ zone brackets in general looked like they did an awesome job of cutting off Tampa’s in-breaking routes in the intermediate part of the field.

The Patriots played a ton of Big Nickel and Big Dime looks with Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger each playing pretty well.

In all, Brady’s stat line (22-of-43, 269 yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, 55.3 Total QBR) is exactly what you want if you’re the Patriots. Without Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate had an ugly, key drop, and Antonio Brown couldn’t hang on to a beautiful Brady long-ball for a go-ahead touchdown late, but really, the Patriots defense played well enough to win this game.

This New England defense is a top-tier unit in the league, defensively, and they may have Stephon Gilmore returning soon.

— Mac Jones almost had his moment. In a weird, old-school-feeling Giants-Patriots, Eli Manning-Brady era-looking contest, the Patriots were in position to win, but just couldn’t pull it off. Alas, two turnovers, some sloppy play, more letdowns in got-to-have-it-moments (an all too familiar part of the Patriots identity since late 2019) included a failed attempt to score a touchdown to take a 21-16 lead while inside the 10-yard-line late in the fourth quarter, instead settling for a field goal, their last points of the game. There were several moments to be dissected, including Belichick conservatively opting not to trust Mac Jones on a 4th-and-2 in Tampa territory late at the end of the first half, and then again on a 4th-and-3 in the final minute of the game, instead opting for a 56-yard Nick Folk field goal attempt in the pouring rain, in which Folk heroically almost came through with one of the great kicks of all time, that ultimately hit the left upright with a loud “thud.”

A thud, is sort of what the 2021 Patriots are at this point. There have been comparisons to this team and the 2001 Patriots, as the franchise begins anew under Mac Jones. And heck, that team started 1-3 before eventually winning the Super Bowl. But that team, a well-disciplined bunch, came through when it mattered. There would be no game-winning kick (a la Adam Vinatieri) on this night, just as there would be no game-winning drive. New England is now 1-3 and 0-3 at home, with two gut-wrenching losses to the Dolphins (Damien Harris’ late fumble sealed it) and now, the Bucs.

Still, Mac Jones played well enough to win this game, and has shown a lot of promise.

The rookie completed 19 consecutive passes in a period in the second half, which included a go-ahead touchdown drive culminating in a throwing score to Jonnu Smith, that saw Jones go 7-of-7 on that drive to give New England the 14-13 lead.

Really, Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, Mac Jones and the defense all played well enough to win this game, which is probably why this loss stings so much for New England.

The potential is there, even with Jones and the offense going just 2-for-9 on third down conversions, and Jones still being pressured by pass rushers (4 sacks, 12 QB hits on Jones by Tampa on Sunday), due to a disappointing O-line, which was met with Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ famous blitz-heavy scheme. The rookie also overcame the Patriots absolutely abysmal rushing performance, which saw the team run for -1 yards on eight carries versus Tampa’s top-ranked rushing defense, led by monster interior defenders Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh.

When given the time to throw, Mac Jones (31-of-40, 275 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) has proven more than capable, as the Patriots are beginning to find at least a small groove in spreading defenses out in empty, shotgun looks. Jakobi Meyers (eight catches, 70 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (five catches, 58 yards) are beginning to have their moments, but the team is still not getting enough out of their two tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, despite their two short touchdown catches on Sunday.

Still, there are brilliant flashes with Jones operations a Patriots/Brady-style offense.

Bourne called Jones a “baby Tom” after the game, and Tom Brady and several other Buccaneers praised the Patriots quarterback.

“I feel like he’s gonna be a good quarterback in this league,” Tampa star linebacker Devin White said of Jones postgame.

“He was poised. We hit him a lot of times and he stayed in the scheme and moved the ball for them when he had to move the ball for them.”

For now, as he learns behind a caving offensive line, a disappointing running game and the lack of a true No. 1 pass catcher, Jones will still learn a ton, find his resolve, and continue to improve. So far, he looks the part of a franchise quarterback.

THE BETTER HALF

1. Buffalo Bills (3-1) (Last week: 4). As each week passes, their Week 1 loss to the Steelers continues to be more of an aberration. They are the best team in football right now.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) (Last week: 2). Their secondary is an absolute mess right now, but a favorable upcoming schedule should help keep them afloat near the top of the NFC.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-0) (Last week: 7). Kliff Kingsbury’s bunch is soaring after a month. They are the last remaining undefeated team. That was a helluva win over the Rams in Los Angeles. Is their defense good enough for them to be a contender this season? Will their offense keep this up all year?

4. Los Angeles Rams (3-1) (Last week: 1). They didn’t get up for their home match versus Arizona like they did versus the Bucs. They’re still the NFC West favorite. They have a quick turnaround for a game in Seattle on Thursday.

5. Cleveland Browns (3-1) (Last week: 3). They’re one of the most talented teams in the league, but they aren’t quite playing like it, week to week. They need to hit their stride.

6. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) (Last week: 5). That was a telling win in Denver. That’s 43 straight 100-yard rushing games for the Ravens as a team, which ties an NFL record.

7. Green Bay Packers (3-1) (Last week: 8). They’re coming along after that ugly Week 1 loss to New Orleans. Aaron Rodgers’ bunch are a Super Bowl contender, once more.

8. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) (Last week: 10). They’re tied for second in points per game (33.5) and are ranked 31st in points per game allowed (31.3). That sounds about right.

9. Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) (Last week: 15). Justin Herbert already looks like one of the best quarterbacks in football, and Brandon Staley may be an early Coach of the Year candidate. But, these are the Chargers. They find ways to disappoint. Will they buck the trend this year? They’re next three games: versus Browns, at Ravens, versus Patriots. That’s tough.

10. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) (Last week: 16). They have a top-tier offense, and their defense, although not great, has enough blue-chippers (Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs) to make some plays.

11. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) (Last week: 8). Their defense isn’t great, which puts a lot of pressure on Derek Carr and the offense.

12. Seattle Seahawks (2-2) (Last week: NR). They weren’t going to just lie down and fall to 1-3. That was a big win.

13. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (Last week: 9). Trey Lance was my favorite quarterback coming into the 2021 NFL Draft. He still is. But even I think it may be too soon for him to take full control of the offense. Let’s see if Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy enough to play on Sunday.

14. Tennessee Titans (2-2) (Last week: 11). That was an ugly overtime loss to the Jets in New York. They did fight back though. They play down to their competition too much.

15. Carolina Panthers (3-1) (Last week: 12). That was a tough loss in Dallas. Their defense is legitimately talented, but they’re not quite the league’s No. 1 unit. Sam Darnold has been great, though, at quarterback.

16. Denver Broncos (3-1) (Last week: 13). A win there over Baltimore would have been huge. Now, they’re stuck up top the AFC West in that early-season logjam.

Next Up: New Orleans, Cincinnati, New England, Washington, Minnesota/Indianapolis

Mac Jones Practice

Dawn of a new era: Can Mac Jones lead the Patriots back to the playoffs?

Posted on by Brent Schwartz

Twenty years ago, Bill Belichick was faced with a tough decision at quarterback. 

Taking over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001, Tom Brady made it far too difficult for Belichick to return to the New England Patriots’ then-$100 million man in Bledsoe, when the presumed franchise passer was cleared to play. 

The tough choice to stick with Brady spawned a two-decade dynasty in Foxboro that totaled six Super Bowl wins, nine Super Bowl appearances, 13 AFC title game berths and 17 AFC East division titles.

Now, looking to pick up the pieces after a rough first season without Brady (who added to his Super Bowl total in Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers), ‘The Hoodie’ was tasked with another conundrum at QB.

Cam Newton versus Mac Jones. 

Belichick once again opted for the young, gangly passer over a former No. 1 overall pick when he decided to abruptly extinguish the Cam Newton era, releasing the 2015 NFL MVP before eager Patriots fans at Gillette Stadium ever got the chance to cheer for him in person. 

Now, the keys to the New England’s complex offense belong to Mac Jones, the franchise’s lone first-round pick quarterback (No. 15 overall) of the Belichick era, and first since Bledsoe in 1993. 

Cam Newton and Mac Jones
Mac Jones is a better fit for the Patriots’ offense than Cam Newton. (Screenshot: New England Patriots)

Comparing Jones to Tom Brady outright is a fool’s errand. 

Brady will forever be the face of the franchise. He’s the greatest player in NFL history. Even if Mac Jones’ career is everything the Patriots hope for, there will likely be a statue of Brady built outside the stadium in Foxboro midway through Jones’ New England career, which is something that probably won’t happen for the latter. 

However, it’s fair to say that Jones is of Brady’s mold. Shared attributes include a super-computer football mind, pocket presence, accuracy, poise, and shared “deficiencies”such as a lack of speed and the inability to make off-schedule plays consistently. 

Both have been described as having “adequate” arm strength, despite each displaying deep-shot ability and zip on the ball. (Seriously, go watch this Brady attempt to Randy Moss in Super Bowl 42, or some of his intermediate throws in his 2010 NFL MVP award-winning season.)

ESPN‘s Louis Riddick, a former player of Belichick’s and a brilliant evaluator/analyst amidst a sea of hot-take artists in the business, took to NBC Sports Boston’s ‘Next Pats’ podcast to praise the fit of Jones with the Patriots to Insider Phil Perry:

——-

“He’s known for being that cerebral, fast-thinking, risk-averse…but at the same time, calculated in terms of the big shots that he takes, type of quarterback. Last time I checked, that’s what wins in the NFL. 

…At quarterback, it’s always been about decision making and accuracy. It always will be about that. Everything else is a bonus. There’s a lot of quarterbacks in this draft that make spectacular plays with their legs. What is going to separate them from the rest, and put them in the category of being elite, is: can they make good decisions and be accurate with the football? It’s really that simple. And Mac [Jones] has shown the ability to do that. 

What did he do this preseason? He was throwing people open. 

His first preseason game, what did they do? They went up-tempo and no-huddle, because things were sluggish for him against Washington. So they go five-empty, and they are just like “zoom, zoom, zoom”. No other rookie quarterback was doing that.”

——-

The decision to go with Jones over Newton came down to Jones being the perfect leader for Josh McDaniels’ offensive schemes and concepts. (As well as having the cap space to build a Super Bowl-winning team around Mac Jones’ four-year, $16 million cheap-as-hell rookie QB contract during Belichick’s presumed final coaching years). 

Many believed that New England “catered” their playbook to Newton last season, but really, Newton was asked to run the Patriots’ offense led by Brady in 2018 and 2019, with the only consistent “Cam-specific” addition to the offense being a small package of QB power-type plays utilized by Newton on the goal line and in short-yardage scenarios. 

Mac Jones and Josh McDaniels
Mac Jones is the prototypical style of quarterback to run Josh McDaniels’ offensive schemes in New England. (Photo: Mark Daniels)

Jones is the perfect fit to run any of New England’s offensive iterations in the Brady era: run-heavy and play-action passing out of I-formation and Singleback under center, quick-passing and timing-based throws out of shotgun empty and spread, and up-tempo attacks with versatile pieces such as New England’s two new tight ends. 

Jones is the type of passer who thrives before the snap and goes through his progressions quicker than most after the snap. Often times last year, Newton’s struggled in New England’s play-action reads from under center. He held onto the ball for too long when scanning the field. Sure, a lack of competent pass-catchers certainly had a lot to do with that, but Newton just didn’t seem to fit New England’s offense, and the Patriots didn’t seem willing to change, nor did they have the time to do so with no preseason and a truncated training camp in the Summer of 2020.

Bill Belichick's Prototypical QB
Mac Jones fits Bill Belichick’s prototypical quarterback template to a tee, as described by Belichick here in a 1991 scouting guide he presumably gave to his Cleveland Browns staff. (Photo by Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network)

Jones is the perfect fit for what the team wants to do. And in 2021, that’s best predicted as an amalgam of their early-dynasty offense from 2001 to 2006 (and again from 2018 to 2020), and their up-tempo, quick-passing, matchup-exploiting scheme from 2010 to 2012 with the tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, paired with Brady at the end of his physical peak. 

Asking for Jones to be anything close to what Brady was from about 2007 to 2017 is incredibly unfair. It won’t happen. But Jones is absolutely capable of mimicking Brady’s early years, when New England won three Super Bowls with a solid team around him. 

Up front, New England has what should be one of the NFL’s four or five best offensive lines. The Patriots have returning starters in left tackle Isaiah Wynn, Center David Andrews, right guard Shaq Mason and Michael Onwenu, who is moving over from right tackle to left guard, a more natural spot for him after he mostly played tackle last season, and excelled. 

The Patriots let their best offensive lineman over the past few seasons, Joe Thuney, walk in free agency for a big deal with AFC rival Kansas City based off the play of Onwenu, who as a rookie, was the eighth-highest-graded tackle (84.3) in the NFL in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Wynn, Onwenu and Mason are incredible run blockers, in particular. The Patriots will go heavy with pulling guards and man-blocking as a power running team once more. 

The unit may be the best run-blocking group in the NFL, and should be in the top half of the league in pass-blocking, with the latter being helped out by the last-to-be-named starting offensive lineman: right tackle Trent Brown. 

New England kicked off the offseason by trading back for Brown after his two seasons with the Raiders. Brown was an anchoring left tackle for New England in their 2018 Super Bowl run, which helped the 6-foot-8, 380-pound gargantuan earn a contract as massive as his size. 

Size is the name of the game with this group of front, as each starter is over 300 pounds, and the entire unit averaging a league-high 330 pounds. This is one of the bigger offensive lines in the league, if not the biggest. 

Running behind them often will be Damien Harris, who should be the team’s clear leading rusher now that Super Bowl 53 hero Sony Michel is battling for RB1 duties with the Los Angeles Rams. 

The team felt comfortable with Harris leading the charge as a traditional, downhill-running back who makes up for any talent deficiencies with his tough, and smart, ball-carrying style. 

But it’s only a matter of time that rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, a fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma, and J.J. Taylor, entering Year 2 out of Arizona, become significant parts of the offense. 

Taylor should be first up as RB2 as a Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead hybrid who runs with a surprising amount of power for his size (5-foot-6, 185 pounds). 

Stevenson is a bigger back (6-foot, 246 pounds) that initially drew comparisons to LeGarrette Blount, only for many to find out that he is surprisingly agile as a make-you-miss runner who will excel in shotgun, inside-zone attempts, and is probably the second-best receiving back of the group behind James White. 

Speaking of White, the eight-year-pro, and longtime Patriots hero, stands the most to gain from the switch from Cam Newton to Mac Jones at quarterback. The Patriots can now turn to its quick-passing attack that historically feeds its pass-catching backs. That wasn’t really Cam’s game. So White, who had less receiving yards (375) and receiving scores (one) than he’s had since his rookie year (where he barely played) should have a resurgence on screens, as well as flat routes and option routes from the backfield on 3rd-and-5-and-under situations. 

The reimplementation of White as a factor in the offense is just one of a slew of factors that should help improve won of the most inefficient passing offenses of the 21st century last season. 

The team threw a league-worst 10 touchdown passes last season, and ranked 27th in passing in Football Outsiders‘ renowned DVOA stat. 

To help combat the issues, Belichick overhauled the tight end position by making headlines with not one, but two free agency splashes at the position in Jonnu Smith (4 years, $50 million, $31.25 million guaranteed) and Hunter Henry (3 years, $37.5 million, $25 million guaranteed). 

The offense will be led by rookie Mac Jones, but will revolve around the O-line, running game, and play-action passing to what should be two phenomenal chess pieces in Smith and Henry for McDaniels’ play-calling. 

12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) has long been a staple of New England offenses, but with limited personnel post-Gronk, the team has barely used the tight end position. The Patriots ran 12 personnel in just two-percent of offensive snaps (22 snaps) in 2020, according to Sharp Football Stats, a league low, and New England has only three touchdown receptions from tight ends in the last two seasons combined. Quite simply, they’ve ignored the position during games because they’ve had to, due to a lack of talent. Now, they likely will use more two-tight end sets than any team in the league. 

In Henry they have more of a traditional ‘Y’ tight end who is capable in-line as a blocker, and can spread out as a pass-catcher in looks such as a shotgun 3×1 setup, where the former Charger would project as a backside ‘X’ receiver a la Travis Kelce in Kansas City. 

Smith, a former Tennesee Titan, is more of a rare breed as a Swiss army knife-type player who can line up on the line, in the slot, as an H-back, fullback, or even running back. McDaniels will look to get him matched up on slower linebackers and smaller defensive backs in hopes of utilizing Smith’s incredible yards-after-the-catch ability, in which he has averaged 6.8 YAC for his career, by using a blend of power and finesse as a fully-aware, movement player with supreme ball carrier vision, athleticism and toughness for his position.

On the surface, it would seem lazy to compare the Henry-Smith combination to the great Gronk-Hernandez tandem from 2010 to 2012, but the archetypes seem similar. Sure, Henry isn’t as powerful as Gronk, and Smith, although a much better blocker than Hernandez, doesn’t quite have the body control of the former troubled Florida Gator product, who made defenders miss after the catch perhaps better than any tight end the game has ever seen.

But, there are similarities. The Patriots should be much better in the red zone with this tight end tandem. Smith, alone, had a career-high eight touchdowns in 2020. 

Additionally, look for each to run a myriad of routes out of play-action in I-Form and Singbleback two-tight end sets. In shotgun-spread, Henry will split out wide at times, and Smith should work heavily in the middle of the field, whether it be seam routes, or quick outs from the slot, or option-routes from the backfield. 

All of this leans on Jones’ ability to get these guys the ball, of course. The Alabama QB seems to thrive in both spread and under-center, play-action looks, and is accurate when throwing the football. A bigger cause for concern with the tight ends, is the health of Henry, who is coming into Week 1 possibly banged up, and has missed 24 games in four seasons. Henry has also never played a full season of games. 

If Henry does miss time, Devin Asiasi, a 2020 third-round pick, stands to fill his place as the Y-tight end, but it’s more likely that New England will then heavily mix in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) and the common 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) to make up for Henry’s absence. 

Not yet mentioned, Jakob Johnson is a traditional fullback who lacks the power of James Develin, but is a capable lead-blocker in I-formation, strong, and weak looks. Even with Smith and Henry healthy, Johnson will get his fair share of goal-line and short-yardage snaps. 

At wide receiver, the Patriots paid Nelson Agholor (2 years, $26 million, $15 million guaranteed) and Kendrick Bourne (3 years, $22.5 million) to come in and help a wide receiver core that struggled mightily against man coverage in 2020. Last season, the Patriots passing offense was 31st in EPA/play versus man coverage and single-high looks.

Agholor’s contract suggests New England views him as their top receiver. The former Philadelphia Eagle was considered a bit of a first-round bust as a slot receiver, even if he burned the Patriots for a nine-catch, 84-yard performance as an underneath, quick-pass option in Philadephia’s Super Bowl 52 win over New England. 

Playing on a prove-it, one-year deal for the Raiders last year, Agholor reinvented himself as a speedy deep-threat and X-receiver, setting a career-high in receiving yards (896) and tying his high in touchdowns (8), all while ranking second in the league in yards per reception (18.7).

Agholor will be tasked as New England’s deep-shot playmaker who also runs intermediate, in-breaking routes such as crossers, from both the perimeter and the slot. There, Agholor can utilize his speed to break away from man-coverage defenders, allowing the rest of the team’s pass-catchers, such as fellow newcomer Kendrick Bourne, to work underneath. 

Bourne, coming over from San Francisco, will likely begin the season as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver who comes on the field in 11 personnel and third-down situations. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound receiver is not known for his speed, but rather his quickness, route-running, strength/toughness and ability in the clutch on 3rd-and-7-or-so scenarios. He will be a threat underneath, in the red zone, on third down, and in crunch time. Expect Bourne to be one of the team’s more improved players in the scheme by season’s end. He has the potential, along with James White, to be a third-down security blanket pass catcher for the team’s rookie QB. 

Then, there’s Jakobi Meyers. The former North Carolina State QB-turned-receiver continues to defy expectations, blossoming into one of the NFL’s more competent and productive possession receivers. He ranked 10th out of 111 qualifying pass catchers in receiving yards per routes run (2.24) last year, and led the Patriots in receiving yards (776) despite not starting in the team’s first few games of 2020. 

He’ll often play in the slot in both shotgun-spread and 11-personnel looks, and as a Z-receiver/flanker option on the outside in 12 personnel. Basically, despite having a bit of a different skill set, Meyers is taking over Edelman’s role in the offense. Meyers is on an early-career, Edelman-like progression track within the offense, too. He should be a focal point in his third year in 2021.

After that, there’s 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry, who will miss the first few games of the season on injured reserve, and look to produce as a moving chess piece on the perimeter, in the slot, and in motion as an athlete-type player at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, who may surprise some in Year 3 after gaining confidence and experience.

Rounding out the group is Gunner Olszewski, an All-Pro punt returner and backup slot option, and newcomer Malcolm Perry, a former Navy quarterback (right up Belichick’s wheelhouse) converted to a slot receiver-running back in Miami under former Patriots coach Brian Flores. Expect him to be a gadget-type player at first  who attempts to learn the receiver position, a la Julian Edelman. Perry does have incredible quickness. 

The offense will likely get back to its roots under Mac Jones, with McDaniels reverting back to his mix-and-match approach with game plans as Jones becomes more comfortable leading the offense. The team’s chameleon-like approach was renowned in the 2010s, and was a major factor in their success under Tom Brady. 

Expect the Patriots to lean heavy on 12 personnel, power-running and play-action passing at first, before eventually leaning more on Jones’ ability to run an up-tempo, spread offense that famously uses versatile players (Jonnu Smith, James White, etc.) to exploit matchups in a timing-based, quick-passing scheme.

Week 1 Projected offense:

QB — Mac Jones

RB — Damien Harris

‘X’ WR — Nelson Agholor

‘Z’ WR/Slot — Jakobi Meyers

‘Y’/Traditional TE — Hunter Henry

‘F’/’Move’ TE — Jonnu Smith

LT — Isaiah Wynn

LG — Michael Onwenu

C — David Andrews 

RG — Shaq Mason 

RT — Trent Brown

Situational positions: 

FB — Jakob Johnson

WR3 (Underneath option, 3rd-down, etc.) — Kendrick Bourne

3rd-down back/receiving back — James White

RB2/Scatback — J.J. Taylor

RB3 — Rhamondre Stevenson 

‘Y’ TE/TE3 — Devin Asiasi

WR4 — N’Keal Harry

WR5/Slot WR — Gunner Olszewski 

‘Gadget’/Slot WR — Malcolm Perry

Swing Tackle — Yodney Cajuste/Justin Herron 

* * * * * * *

For all the talk of the ineffective passing offense from last year, the Patriots defense stumbled down the ladder of the league’s top-ranked defenses, into a unit that resembled nothing of its staunch 2019 form. 

The team went from first in DVOA in total defense in 2019 to 26th last season, which included a ranking of dead-last in run defense DVOA. Those are catastrophic numbers for a Belichick-led defense. 

The unit struggled mightily last year after losing some of its key players both to free agency (Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton) and opt-outs (Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung), and missing Stephon Gilmore, New England’s current best player, for five games due to injury. 

The Patriots’ Spending spree in free agency included an initial wave of players on defense with Van Noy returning from Miami on a two-year, $13.2 million deal. The team also signed cornerback/safety-hybrid Jalen Mills (4 years, $24 million) and plucked nose tackle Davon Godchaux (2 years, $16 million) and defensive end Henry Anderson (2 years, $7 million) from AFC East rivals. 

But their biggest offseason addition was the the signing of former Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matt Judon to a four-year, $56 million deal ($32 million guaranteed). Judon already looked the part in the preseason as a menacing edge setter. 

In addition to finishing last in run defense DVOA last year, the team was also ranked last in off-tackle yards per attempt, showcasing just how bad they were in setting the edge in the run game. Chase Winovich is one of the league’s better edge rushers, but coupled with the likes of John Simon, Shilique Calhoun and Tashawn Bower last year, the team was horrendous in stopping outside runs.

Adding Judon and re-adding Van Noy to set the edge in the run game, along with the additions of Godchaux and Anderson (3rd among interior lineman with a 43 percent run-stop-win rate in 2020) to plug up the interior will transform this front seven, and give the Patriots what they want: a tough, deep depth chart of defensive lineman and linebackers for their 3-4-style (mostly) defense that they’ve shifted too since 2019. 

 

Patriots defense -- 2020 trends
The New England Patriots have mostly moved to a 3-4 style of defense since 2019, employing a “base” Nickel 2-4-5, often with three safeties, as their most-used formation.

Expect the Patriots to run a boatload of 2-4-5 with Godchaux (6-foot-3, 311 pounds) and the returning Lawrence Guy (6-foot-4, 315 pounds) up front as a versatile lineman who can play both 4-3 defensive tackle an 3-4-style defensive end. Each of these men are excellent two-gapping lineman for this type of defense. The Patriots struggled last year with an endless supply of practice-squad type players and cast-offs rotating around Guy up front, which hurt the defense almost as much their deficiencies on the edge. 

This year on the edge, the aforementioned Matt Judon is probably New England’s best football player on the roster with Gilmore sidelined. He’s the strong-side, stand-up EDGE defender that is perfect for this scheme. The “Elephant” role, is what former Patriot Willie McGinest calls this role, according to CLNS Media‘s Evan Lazar. 

Matthew Judon -- Training Camp
Matthew Judon may be the Patriots’ best player in 2021. New England was in dire need of a player of his caliber as an EDGE defender. (Screenshot: New England Patriots)

Judon can use his 6-foot-3, 275-pound frame, athleticism and aggressiveness to stop the run, rush the passer and even play a bit of shallow pass coverage. 

Van Noy returns on the other side as the opposite EDGE on early downs, with the possibility to move inside as well. 

At off-ball linebacker, the return of Dont’a Hightower is one of the more under-the-radar, massively important stories of the entire league. The 10-year-pro is a leader on the defense, and New England missed his football wit, swagger and ferociousness up front. 

Depending on the scheme, the Patriots will have Ja’Whaun Bentley, who struggled in Hightower’s role last year, returning to his perfect fit as a “thumper” inside linebacker in 3-4 looks. 

New England also loves to employ three safeties, and the Patrick Chung role as a box safety/linebacker hybrid will certainly be utilized in some 2-4-5 looks. Last year, Kyle Dugger played mostly as a strong safety, and Adrian Phillips as a linebacker. This season, there’s a chance their roles switch, as Dugger’s tackling ability and sideline-to-sideline speed fit better in the box, with Phillips impressing many in pass coverage, specifically man coverage on tight ends, in training camp. Although, Phillips was tough up front tackling ball carriers in 2020, even with his smaller frame for the box. But the lack of run-stuffers up front meant more lineman coming downhill and blowing Phillips out of the play. That shouldn’t happen this season. 

Rounding out the safeties is Devin McCourty, who enters his 12th season at age 34 as a dependable free safety on early downs, and Cover 1 robber defender to stop crossers (think: yellow zone in Madden) on later downs. The “Duron Harmon” role as the team’s deep safety on clear passing downs (such as 3rd-and-long) is up for grabs, with slot cornerback Jonathan Jones looking like a frontrunner. 

The Patriots loved to run a heavy amount of man coverage, with Cover 1 being their speciality. Last year, Cover 1 and Cover 3 were once again their main coverage tendencies, but the split between man coverage and zone was roughly 51 percent to 49 percent last season, according to my film review and charting.

The increase in zone coverage from the previous season probably had a lot to do with the absence of No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore for five games. 

The Patriots are vulnerable without Stephon Gilmore, who even at age 31 is arguably the best man-coverage cornerback in football on the perimeter. The 2019 Defensive Player of the Year is attempting to return from a torn quad, and will miss at least six weeks since he’s on the PUP (Physically unable to perform) list. Gilmore is also looking for a new contract, as he’s playing on just a $7 million base salary in 2021, much lower than top-of-the-market pay for his position. So his situation is murky, making New England’s cornerback situation a possible Achilles heel on an otherwise superb-looking defense. 

With Gilmore out, J.C. Jackson, who is playing on a contract year (he’s playing in 2021 on a cheap restricted free agent tender this season), moves up to No. 1 cornerback, a position in which he struggled some last year, particularly against Bills All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs. 

Jackson is possibly the best No. 2 cornerback in football, but stands to improve as a No. 1 option. After gaining some experience in the role last year, expect him to be even better in 2021. He’s one of the best deep-ball defenders in the game on the outside. 

Jalen Mills, a struggling cornerback-turned-competent-safety with the Eagles is the type of versatile defensive player that the Patriots covet, but it’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the No. 2 cornerback on the outside. He best slots in as competition for Jonathan Jones as a slot or nickel-type who plays some safety.

The Patriots should also get a lot out their non-starters, as they look for their best pairings. 

In the secondary, Joejuan Williams and newcomer Shaun Wade, Baltimore’s fifth-round pick this past spring out of Ohio State who was once considered a first-round pick prospect, are gangly cornerbacks with safety potential who will get their fare share of playing time with Gilmore out. 

At linebacker, Harvey Langi returns to the Patriots to provide depth after a three-year-stint with the rival New York Jets that saw him in a starting role at times in 2020. 

On the defensive line, there’s Carl Davis as depth for Godchaux at nose tackle after earning his spot as the lone midseason addition who could stop the run last year. Then there’s newcomer Henry Anderson and the returning Deatrich Wise Jr., a Belichick favorite, will battle it out for snaps alongside Guy and Godchaux as a 3-4 defensive end in base 3-4 looks. Wise Jr. is more of a 4-3-style player but has molded his game over the past two years to fit the 3-4, and is a great locker room presence. 

Wise Jr. will also see time as an interior rusher in clear passing situations in the Patriots’ Big Dime 2-3-6 setup, a go-to look for them on third down. 

Next to him will be rookie Christian Barmore. New England moved up to get the 6-foot-4, 310-pound Alabama defensive tackle in the second round after he fell out of his projected spot as a back-half-of-the-first-round prospect. Barmore may one day be a starter in 3-4 and 2-4-5 looks on early downs, but he’ll begin his career in the Adam Butler role as perhaps the Patriots’ best interior rusher. He should also be the lone hand-in-the-dirt lineman in Big Dime 1-4-6 looks.

Rounding out the insanely-deep EDGE position is third-round pick Ronnie Perkins, who should get a bit of a redshirt year in a learning role, and the aforementioned Chase Winovich, who will return to his pass-rush specialty position as a third-down rusher and occasional base player.

And last but not least, there’s Josh Uche, one of the team’s most important players this season, along with Dugger at safety, considering the second-year “leap” each player is projected to take. 

Josh Uche -- Training Camp
Josh Uche is projected to have a breakout second season, and perhaps may overtake Kyle Van Noy as a starting stand-up EDGE opposite Matthew Judon in base defense looks later in the season. (Screenshot: Josh Uche Instagram)

Uche has the speed and athleticism to take over the 2019 Jamie Collins role as both an early-down EDGE defender and off-ball linebacker in passing situations who often blitzes up the middle. But Uche’s raw talent at rushing the passer, with his speed, quickness and ability to bend past offensive tackles make him a fit as a full-time EDGE, where he may be able to kick Van Noy to the inside. After all, Dont’a Hightower called Uche “little Judon” for his talent and overall ability as a stand-up EDGE defender. 

Uche, a 2019 second-round pick, will certainly play often, and the possibilities of mixing and matching these pass-rushing edge rushers on clear passing downs are endless. 

Could you imagine a 1-4-6 look on a 3rd-and-10 with Barmore on the line, and four out of five of a group including Judon, Hightower, Van Noy, Winovich and Uche all along the line as stand-up rushers? That’s a quarterback’s worst nightmare. 

The Patriots have the ability to go with a bulkier 3-4, a 2-4-5 with 3-4 principles (their usual base), or a Big Dime look (2-3-6, 1-4-6) as their main defense for the majority of a game, depending on the opponent. 

They can run three safety-looks, and can also use run-stuffing personnel, pass-rushing personnel and more, all with the perfect amount of player overlap and cycling of players with different skill sets. 

This unit has the ability to be a top-five group in both points allowed and efficiency metrics (DVOA, etc.).

Week 1 Projected defense:

Interior/Nose Tackle — Davon Godchaux

Interior— Lawrence Guy

EDGE — Matt Judon

EDGE — Kyle Van Noy

LB — Dont’a Hightower

Box safety/LB— Kyle Dugger

S (‘Big’ Nickel/Dime/three-safety packages) — Adrian Phillips

CB1 — J.C. Jackson

CB2 — Jalen Mills 

Slot CB — Jonathan Jones

S — Devin McCourty

Situational positions:

Interior/3-4 DE — Deatrich Wise Jr. 

Interior/3-4 DE  — Henry Anderson

3-4 Nose Tackle — Carl Davis

Interior pass rusher (Big Dime 2-3-6/1-4-6) — Christian Barmore

3-4 ILB — Ja’Whaun Bentley

EDGE/LB/3rd-down pass rusher — Josh Uche 

EDGE/3rd-down pass rusher — Chase Winovich

EDGE — Ronnie Perkins

CB1 (PUP, out six weeks) — Stephon Gilmore

CB4 (perimeter)/slot — Shaun Wade

CB5/S (‘Big’ TE, ‘X’ WR matchup CB) — Joejuan Williams

* * * * * * *

Projected record: 11-6 (AFC’s No. 6 seed)

In an attempt to reboot the team after a 7-9 transition season in a post-Tom Brady world, during a pandemic, Bill Belichick hurled an NFL-record $159.6 million of guaranteed money in free agency to attempt to fix his team on both sides of the ball. 

Some criticized the moves, calling some of the contracts “overpays,” but the moves were strategic, as the Patriots were one of just a couple teams with the available cap space in 2020 after the salary cap shrunk in an attempt to make up for lost revenue from a lack of fan attendance during last season. 

The salary cap will increase, swiftly and dramatically, I might add, which will make many of these deals closer to market value, or even below the threshold, which means the Patriots will have additional cap space after all, to build a team around rookie Mac Jones. 

Yes, it’s Jones who Belichick plucked from good friend Nick Saban’s team in Alabama, in the first round of the draft. It’s Jones, who Belichick has deemed worthy as Brady’s official successor, perhaps thanks to valuable insider info from Saban. 

It’s hard to believe, but it’s been 20 years since the tragic events of September 11, 2001. That season, it was fitting that the New England Patriots banded together as a team, built off a solid defense, top-tier play in the trenches (OL, DL), a tough power-running game, and a young quarterback leading the offense as a clutch, unafraid leader with much to learn. And let’s not forget, great coaching. 

The 2021 Patriots are a similar breed, perhaps not as sturdy in the secondary without Stephon Gilmore, but just as deep in the front seven, with a better offensive line, and perhaps, better offensive weapons, with two tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith ready to become a focal point of the offense. 

Of course, times have changed, as the game is equipped with new rules today that were not in place in 2001. High-flying offenses and great quarterback play are more important than ever. 

So even with all of this, the comparisons to the 2001 Patriots and all, this team is not quite Super Bowl-ready, but they will surprise many, challenging the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East for all 18 weeks of the regular season, before earning a wild-card berth, and winning the franchise’s first playoff game since Super Bowl 53, three seasons ago. (I have them losing in the Divisional round.) 

There was a clear opposing of views between Brady and Belichick when it came to team-building philosophies. That was perhaps the main reason for Brady’s split to Tampa Bay during his final years. Brady has his high-flying offense, and now, Belichick’s vision for a more complete team has come to fruition.