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Kyle Williams, Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins

Sorting out the the 2025 New England Patriots WR Group

Posted on May 23, 2025July 30, 2025 by Brent Schwartz

The New England Patriots will enter the 2025 season with a sense of renewed hope and optimism that has been absent over the past few years. In just the first offseason under new head coach Mike Vrabel, the roster has endured a rather dramatic makeover that has seen several additions and departures of long-time veterans and team captains.

With a young promising quarterback in Drake Maye, and Josh McDaniels returning for a third stint as offensive coordinator, things are expected to change, or rather, revert, to a familiar offense. The Patriots used their first three draft picks on the offensive side of the ball, and with mandatory minicamp soon approaching next month (June 9-11), focus will shift toward implementing McDaniels scheme, and the structuring of how the offense might look come Week 1 in early September.

To do that, the Patriots will need to figure out their wide receiver depth chart. At the moment, there is an unusual logjam at the receiver position. One could argue New England still lacks a top weapon, but between a bevy of returning members and newcomers, the team has around seven or eight receivers that project as 53-man roster options in many NFL teams’ five-receiver depth charts.

In figuring out where players may project within the offense, it’s best to start with what receiver roles may be present within the offense McDaniels is implementing for Maye and company.

Using charting data from PFF, I was able to glean three fairly distinct receiver alignment roles under Josh McDaniels during the three-season stretch from 2020 through 2022. This time included the final two years of McDaniels’s second offensive coordinator stint in New England (2020-2021), and his only full season as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders (2022). These three seasons are not only McDaniels most recent campaigns as a full-time coach, but they’re also key in analyzing and projecting receiver roles, particularly in a post-Tom Brady McDaniels-led offense.

Role 1 (X-receiver)

Year/Team	Player	Snap %	Wide Snap %	Slot Snap %	aDot (average depth of target in yards)
2020 Patriots	Damiere Byrd	89%	91%	9%	12
2021 Patriots	Nelson Agholor	64%	90%	10%	14.8
2021 Patriots	N’Keal Harry	30%	87%	13%	14.8
2022 Raiders	Mack Hollins	94%	86%	14%	13.1

– This was a fairly easy role to identify between charting data and sampled film watching. This is by and large a boundary X-receiver deployment and downfield/vertical role in both 2-WR sets and 3-WR sets, with little alignment versatility. And as opposed to the heavy usage of condensed formations in Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay tree offenses, McDaniels typical uses wider spacing or formational width, with receivers in this role truly lining up out wide.

– Despite the X-role, none of the receivers above were top playmakers within their offense. There’s a diverse set of skills, body builds and player archetypes in this hodgepodge group. Damiere Byrd’s size for this role was an anomaly (5-9, 175 pounds), but he ran a 4.28 40 at his Pro Day. Mack Hollins carved out a boundary role in the 2022 Raiders offense, and has the requisite size (6-4, 221), but doesn’t necessarily have the explosiveness for the position.

– Nelson Agholor’s best season as a pro came in 2017 for the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, where he spent 86.2% of snaps that season in the slot. After signing with the Patriots, New England used him on the outside for a career-high 90% percentage of snaps for a season. For reference, Agholor has spent 66% of his snaps in the slot in Baltimore over his last two seasons. Toward the end of the year, N’Keal Harry began cutting into his snaps at the position, which is reflected in his similar snap alignment and identical aDot metric.

Roles 2 & 3 (Alignment versatility, Z vs Slot, 2-WR set vs. 3-WR set roles)

Year/Team	Player	Snap %	Wide Snap %	Slot Snap %	aDot (average depth of target in yards)
2020 Patriots	N’Keal Harry	58%	63%	36%	8.4
2021 Patriots	Kendrick Bourne	52%	62%	37%	8.5
2022 Raiders	Davante Adams	95%	70%	30%	12.8

Year/Team	Player	Snap %	Wide Snap %	Slot Snap %	aDot (average depth of target in yards)
2020 Patriots	Jakobi Meyers	66%	40%	60%	10.6
2020 Patriots	Julian Edelman	26%	25%	75%	10.9
2021 Patriots	Jakobi Meyers	84%	34%	66%	9.8
2022 Raiders	Hunter Renfrow	34%	14%	86%	6.5
2022 Raiders	Keelan Cole Jr.	34%	37%	63%	17.3

– A McDaniels offense is known for operating from the inside out through its slot receivers and tight ends. There’s essentially two different roles here – one with 60-70% of snaps spent outside, and the other with 60-70% of snaps in the slot. Things get a bit too complicated to identify these roles as just ‘Z’ receiver and slot. And there’s some overlap in the above examples on which style of receiver (in terms of deployment/charting data) is used in 2-WR sets.

– We’ll start with Davante Adams, who was still an elite receiver in 2022 in Las Vegas. No receiver in this data or on the current Patriots roster is even close to the level of Adams in 2022, who led the NFL in receiving TDs (14) with 1,516 receiving yards on a career-high 180 targets. For context, in that same 2022 season, Jakobi Meyers led the Patriots with 96 targets. McDaniels deployment of Adams is notable and worth revisiting if the Patriots add a top-flight WR1 in 2026 or beyond. Adams was moved all around the formation and used as a vertical threat in 2022, where he posted a career-high 12.8 aDot.

– The high-volume “WR1” role from a targets perspective has often been the hybrid Z/slot role under McDaniels in New England. This player is primarily a receiver who operates mostly inside on underneath to intermediate routes, both from the slot and off the line on the outside, where the player would often come in motion pre-snap. This receiver would be the flanker in 2-WR sets and often would play in the slot or as a Z-receiver in 3-WR sets or spread looks. Julian Edelman occupied that role for most of his career. Many often lump Edelman, Danny Amendola and Wes Welker as similar players, but remember, both Edelman and Amendola co-existed in the same McDaniels offense for years. Amendola (and Welker) spent over 80% of his career snaps in the slot. Edelman had a role in 2-WR sets and he spent a lesser 55% of his career snaps in the slot, but as he suffered an ACL tear and aged into his 30s, he began to spend more time inside.

– Edelman, then age 34, began the 2020 season as primarily a slot receiver with Cam Newton at the helm, working alongside Damiere Byrd (X) and N’Keal Harry (Z). After six games, Edelman went on IR and later retired that offseason. Between Edelman’s injury and Harry failing to carve out a role as a jumbo Z/move-receiver, Jakobi Meyers took the baton as the new top target. Meyers played more snaps than any other Patriots receiver from Week 8 on in 2020, and then paced the entire depth chart again in 2021 with Mac Jones at QB. He operated as both a slot receiver and as a flanker in two-WR sets. McDaniels eventually signed Meyers away from New England to Las Vegas in 2023.

– Elsewhere, Kendrick Bourne served as a Z-receiver in 2021 in New England in 3-WR sets, working in unison with Meyers as a more productive YAC target on screens, reverses and other designed targets, where as Meyers was given more of the focal routes on key third downs. In 2022 in Las Vegas, Hunter Renfrow worked as a static slot receiver in 3-WR sets, similar to Amendola, and Keelan Cole Jr. mixed in as a vertical slot option who could also play on the outside. Cole led the Raiders in aDOT (17.3) that season and there wasn’t much overlap between him and Renfrow being used on the field at the same time. Renfrow or Cole’s presence on the field probably helped dictate Adams’ pre-snap deployment to a degree that season.

Projecting Patriots 2025 WR Depth Chart

Here is where it gets fun. The first question I pondered with this assignment is – how different will this version of McDaniels offense look with Drake Maye? And after consideration, I really don’t expect the tentpoles of his offense to change that much. Even in his lone full season as Raiders head coach in 2022, which included the force-feeding of targets through the air to Davante Adams, McDaniels still found ample snaps for Josh Jacobs to lead the league in rushing yards (1,653) and gap run concepts (201), per PFF.

This season, I expect New England to either utilize a fullback or run 12 personnel (2-TE sets) to play smash mouth football, run power concepts with pulling guards, and feature play-action passing elements that mimic their gap runs. This means there will be an assortment of 2-WR packages, allowing the distinction of which receivers are worthy of playing in 2-WR sets vs operating in 3-WR sets and other spread looks. Still, like most modern offenses, there should be a heavy dose of 11 personnel groupings, and although I don’t expect the offense to take on any major changes from what Patriots fans are accustomed to, I imagine there will be an uptick of shotgun usage to compliment Maye’s experience and play style. New England may also implement packages and formations that feature zone-read, QB power or other designed QB run concepts like what was seen with Cam Newton at the helm in 2020.

But by and large, this should be a familiar offense. So which of the many receivers currently on the roster will be featured?

2-WR Sets
X	Kyle Williams	Mack Hollins	Javon Baker
Z	Stefon Diggs	Kendrick Bourne	Ja’Lynn Polk

3-WR Sets
X	Kyle Williams	Mack Hollins	Javon Baker
Z	Stefon Diggs	Kendrick Bourne	Kayshon Boutte
Slot	DeMario Douglas	Ja’Lynn Polk	Efton Chism

– History has not been kind to the Patriots this century when it comes to drafting WRs, but their selection of Kyle Williams in the third round last month drew heaping praise from the NFL Draft community. His blend of speed, downfield explosiveness, acceleration and YAC ability make him a three-level threat from multiple alignments. But even at his size (5-11, 190 lbs), Williams’ ability on tape in college at the X-receiver spot, paired with New England’s need at the position, set him up with a unique opportunity as a Day 2-drafted rookie.

– There’s some history with smaller X-receivers both at the All-Pro/Hall-of-Fame level (Antonio Brown), solid/near Pro Bowl level (Deion Branch) and serviceable level (see Damiere Byrd in 2020 referenced earlier). Branch in New England in 2002-2005 is a good example of how a smaller, shiftier X-receiver fares in an offense such as the one we’ll see this year. McDaniels took over play-calling duties from Charlie Weis in the Patriots Erhardt-Perkins style offense in 2005. Kyle Williams doesn’t quite possess the shiftiness and nuance of Branch then, but he packs more of an explosive punch as a potential vertical separator.

– Kyle Williams spent 74% of his snaps out wide for Washington State last year, and per PFF, he led his draft class with 8.4 YAC per reception (min. 75 targets). According to PFF, Williams was also in the 85th percentile or better in YPPR (yards per route run) on go routes, on screens and on hitch routes in FBS play in 2024, and he was over the 90th percentile both versus man coverage and when lined up in the slot (26% of snaps). Those marks alone exhibit his diverse skill set. He has the ability to line up inside or off-the-line as a flanker, but by midseason, I project Williams to be the team’s top outside receiver in both 2-WR and 3-WR sets.

– Mack Hollins made some big catches for Buffalo late last season, and his breakout year as a receiver was as a perimeter player for McDaniels in Las Vegas in 2022. But Hollins will turn 32 in September. There will be a need for more explosiveness at the position. As it stands, he has a solid chance of being New England’s Week 1 starting X-receiver, at least in 3-WR sets and red zone looks as a jump ball operator, while Williams gets acclimated. Hollins is also a willing and able blocker, experienced special teamer, and he brings a vibe of toughness that Vrabel is looking for. But if the offense is to be at its best, he will serve as more of a rotating X-receiver and in a WR4-type role as the season progresses.

– It appears there’s a chance Stefon Diggs may be ready by Week 1. In his eight weeks on the field last season for the Texans before tearing his ACL, he operated in both 2-WR (Z) and 3-WR sets (slot). He tallied 47 catches during that spurt and finished the year 2nd among WRs in ESPN‘s receiver score metric. But Diggs will turn 32 in November. His age and recent injury suggest he’ll be a different player than in his prime years. Last year was the first time since 2016 where he was charted more in the slot (52.8%) than outside (45.1%), but he still played on the perimeter quite a bit, although some of his “outside” snaps were in Bobby Slowik’s Shanahan/McVay-esque condensed formations.

– There are several receivers who remained tough, higher-volume options well into their 30s, including Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman. All of these receivers saw a significant increase in snaps in the slot as their career continued. Stefon Diggs was once a X-receiver, but there’s a prime opportunity here late in his career to occupy the high-volume hybrid Z/Slot role occupied by Julian Edelman and more recently, Jakobi Meyers. His inside-outside split could veer around 60:40 in either direction, but I expect Diggs to be a factor as a Z-recevier in 2-WR sets.

– Kendrick Bourne and Kayshon Boutte could each have major roles come Week 1 or be off the roster entirely. There’s too much of a logjam here to make any promises. Bourne projects best as a fill-in for Diggs’ reps if the former Bills-Vikings receiver is unable to go Week 1. It’s not 1:1 fill-in, as I see Bourne as mostly a Z-receiver only in 2-WR and 3-WR sets as opposed to a high-volume slot-hybrid role. Bourne’s prime was sort of mismanaged in New England as I thought he had a chance to have a monster year in 2022 as both an inside and outside receiver after showing flashes in the McDaniels offense as a move-piece in 2021. Now, Bourne enters his age-30 season in a strange position considering the additions. I wonder if he’d be an option for a team like the Rams who lack a proven WR3. As for Boutte, he played admirably last year logging more snaps than any New England WR (760) as mostly a X-receiver. He had some moments, but his best role is likely a WR4-type snap count, maybe even as a Z-receiver who can work off the line, but often outside, where he’ll be given more space to operate as a YAC threat. I’m not sure I see a clear fit here in the McDaniels offense considering the state of this depth chart. It was already reported by Adam Schefter before the draft that Boutte may be available or “expendable.”

– DeMario Douglas was first among Patriots WRs in receptions last season (66), and was second on the team in targets (87) and receiving yards (621), behind tight end Hunter Henry. There’s a prime opportunity for him to take on a Danny Amendola or Hunter Renfrow-esque role as the team’s slot receiver in 11 personnel. Like Amendola and Renfrow, Douglas is best used as a slot-only option who plays 80% or more of his snaps inside. Although much more explosive than Amendola or Renfrow, Douglas lacks a bit of the route-running nuances (‘sit’ routes in zone coverage) needed for this role, and despite his speed, he’s still much too undersized (5-8, 192) to play Z-receiver snaps in 2-WR sets. One blocker for Douglas may be the eventual heavy usage of a hypothetical 3-WR set of Mack Hollins (X), Kendrick Bourne/Kyle Williams (Z) and Stefon Diggs (slot/Z) where Diggs almost fully occupies the slot role.

– Ja’Lynn Polk‘s rookie campaign was a year he’d like to forget. The Patriots didn’t do him any favors with his usage as mostly a X-receiver (80% of snaps out wide) in a struggling offense with a patchwork offensive line. I think there is room for six WRs on this roster, and with the possible exodus with guys like Bourne and Boutte by Week 1, paired with his recent draft status as a second-round pick, I think it’s likely Polk is on the roster come Week 1. He deserves a shot to see how he fares in McDaniels’ offense. He has the profile of a stockier Jakobi Meyers-type who can play the Z and slot-receiver roles and win at the catch point (he has historically had great hands). He’ll likely need to work behind the scenes to earn playing time, and if not, I wonder if it’s best if he was traded in August to a Shanahan tree team where he’d be given the chance to revive his career in condensed formation looks and roles that I think would suit him well.

– Elsewhere, both Javon Baker and Efton Chism are noteworthy as receivers attempting to make the roster. Chism is a classic, McDaniels offense-style shifty slot receiver who moves really well. Baker has the potential to earn a spot as a rotational or depth option as a X-receiver considering the small amount of options on the roster, but he has an uphill battle.

Brent Schwartz’s 2025 NFL Mock Draft

Posted on April 13, 2025April 24, 2025 by Brent Schwartz

We’re just over 10 days away from the 2025 NFL Draft. Every year I look forward to making a mock draft, but I only create one. It’s a fun way to dive deeper into each NFL team’s scheme, personnel and roster needs. I keep that in mind with each of my selections. Hopefully this will be a fun and informative read for anyone that has arrived here. This is a first-round only mock where I have zero trades. That’s unlikely to happen come next Thursday, but I still think these predicted fits are realistic and make sense.

I’ll save any more preamble. There’s no need to babble on just for SEO optimization. Enjoy!

1. CAM WARD

Miami · QB

With the Titans cancelling workouts with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, this now seems like a given. Ward has a quick release and demonstrates keen ability on off-platform throws and out-of-structure plays. In comparison to other classic, pocket-passing processors, Ward seems to embrace and relish the chaos. But compared to the mayhem Will Levis may bring on any given play, Ward’s knack for havoc will seem mild. He’s a creative playmaker with ample arm talent and appears to be the choice for the Titans to start anew at the position.

2. TRAVIS HUNTER

Colorado · WR/CB

Although the signing of Joe Flacco and acquisition of Kenny Pickett shouldn’t deter the Browns from selecting a QB early in this draft, my hunch suggests they’ll go with who they view is the best player in this draft at pick No. 2.

Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner is truly a never-before-seen talent. Almost nothing said about his play and prospect hype as a two-way player are hyperbolic. Browns GM Andrew Berry made it a point to stand right behind Hunter to view his route-running during Colorado’s recent Pro Day. “We would see him as a receiver primarily first, but I think part of, again, what makes him a bit of a unicorn is the fact that he can do both at a high level,” Berry said of Hunter in February’s NFL Scouting Combine.

Hunter has exceptional ball skills, body control, quickness and explosiveness that lends himself well for play on both sides of the ball. He is an incredible athlete but his playmaking ability and nuance/subtleties are just as impressive. Whether he compliments Jerry Juedy at receiver or Denzel Ward at perimeter cornerback, the Browns will have a lot to work with.

3. ABDUL CARTER

Penn St · EDGE

The consensus is there are two true blue-chip players in this class in Hunter and Abdul Carter. Despite signing both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston as veteran options at QB, the Giants will be a team to monitor for Shedeur Sanders here, but Carter may be too enticing to pass up on.

Dexter Lawrence is a dominating presence in the interior for the Giants, but the heavy assets poured into Brian Burns (trade, contract extension) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (No. 5 overall pick in 2022) on the edges have not yielded desired results. Carter (6-3, 250 lbs) is an explosive defender in the mold of Micah Parsons as a Penn State off-ball LB who successfully transitioned to pass rusher. He was second in the FBS with 62 pressures last season, per SIS (Sports Info Solutions.) He fits nicely as a stand-up EDGE in Shane Bowen’s 3-4 under defensive scheme.

Carter’s presence may allow the Giants to move Thibodeaux inside on third downs, which would give Giants fans memories of their “NASCAR” pass rush package that brought them two Super Bowl wins in 2007 and 2011. Carter can also rush the passer from multiple spots, including standing up over the interior of the offensive line as a blitzing linebacker.

4. WILL CAMPBELL

LSU · OT

Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen coached the Titans defense under Mike Vrabel for six seasons (2018-2023) – three as an outside linebackers coach, then three as the team’s defensive coordinator. Look for the Patriots to run a similar defensive system under Vrabel and defensive coordinator Terrell Williams. This will be a multiple scheme with a mix of looks including a 3-4 under front that attacks. That would have made Abdul Carter a perfect fit here as a stand-up edge rusher in a 4-man (3-down) front. Georgia’ Jalon Walker should also garner some consideration for a team that ranked 32nd/dead last in sacks (28) last season.

But sub-33 inch arms or not (depends on which measurement you trust), the Patriots must find a way to improve their porous offensive line that finished 31st in pass block win rate (51%) and 32nd/dead last in run block win rate (67%), per ESPN Analytics. Despite his length, Campbell’s has size (6-6, 319 lbs) and the necessary athleticism to compete at left tackle. And worst scenario, the Patriots may get a top-level left guard, which is another question mark and position of need at the moment.

This isn’t a sexy pick, and it’s fair to contemplate disappointment considering the Patriots entered Week 18 with the No. 1 overall pick, but New England desperately needs help along the offensive line for Drake Maye.

5. MASON GRAHAM

Michigan · DL

Despite fielding Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker as edge rushers, the Jaguars were 32nd/dead last in pass rush win rate (27%) last season, according to ESPN Analytics, and 28th in sacks (34). Enter Mason Graham. Although he lacks the body build of a Top-5 pick, and is bit undersized (6-3, 296 lbs) in the interior, Graham is a menacing presence as both a pass rusher and run stuffer as a three-technique defensive tackle.

He spent 77% of his time lined up in the B-gap in Michigan’s 3-4-principled, Nickel 2-4-5 looks, per PFF, with some snaps lining up over the tackle in a base 3-4 defense. He also projects well as a one-gapping defensive tackle in a 4-3 scheme.

New Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile is coming over from the Green Bay Packers after a year under Jeff Hafley. He describes the defense he’s implementing as a “a 4-3 with some 3-4 spacing.“

6. WILL JOHNSON

Michigan · CB

This has been a spot where many have mocked Ashton Jeanty, so this may be a bit of a shock, but this fit does appear to be picking up steam.

With Michigan alum Tom Brady now part of the ownership group, Raiders head coach Pete Carroll gets the style and body type of boundary cornerback he likes here. Johnson (6-2, 194) has the length and ball skills to thrive in many different coverage schemes. Last year in Michigan under DC Wink Martindale, Johnson played 82% of snaps in zone coverage, per SIS.

For a former Seahawks coach who drafted and developed the likes of Richard Sherman and Tariq Woolen as lengthy boundary cornerbacks who excelled in both Cover-3/Cover-4 zone looks, Johnson will be a nice first pick for the Raiders under Carroll.

7. ARMAND MEMBOU

Missouri · OT

The Jets were 29th in run block win rate last season (68%), per ESPN Analytics, and they lost right tackle Morgan Moses in free agency. Membou is physical in the run game, and projects best in a zone-rushing scheme. He blocked for zone concepts on 85% of run snaps last year for Missouri, per SIS. A year after the Jets mostly started aging veterans Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses at the offensive tackle spots, they’ll now look to Membou and last year’s No. 11 overall pick, left tackle Olu Fashanu, in the Aaron Glenn era.

8. JALON WALKER

Georgia · EDGE/LB

The Panthers missed out on Milton Williams but they made several under-the-radar moves in free agency to help shore up last year’s poor performance in their defensive front seven. Carolina ranked dead last/32nd in run stop win rate (25%) and 31st in pass block win rate (28%) last season, per ESPN Analytics.

Carolina would welcome Walker as an explosive stand-up speed rusher opposite Jadeveon Clowney in DC Ejiro Evero’s attacking 3-4 defense. The Panthers also released long-time off-ball LB Shaq Thompson this offseason. Walker spent time at linebacker before moving to edge rusher while at Georgia. He can wreck havoc as a pass rusher from several spots. On the edge, he projects as a Top-10 pick version of another former Georgia Bulldog, Nolan Smith.

9. SHEDEUR SANDERS

Colorado · QB

The recent Derek Carr news and Deion Sanders subtle (not really) hints suggest the Saints could be a landing spot for Shedeur Sanders here.

I’d expect the Saints to be patient with new head coach Kellen Moore, who will be leading a full-on, reset-the-salary cap rebuild that won’t conjure any memories of the immediate success that the 2006 team had under Sean Payton’s first year.

Moore will have time to groom and develop Sanders, who is a tough, accurate pocket passer who is a better-than-you-think processor. Sanders often got himself into sack trouble by pressing to make a play behind Colorado’s offensive line.

10. ASHTON JEANTY

Boise St · RB

Although they are vastly different styles of runners, Ben Johnson must be thinking of the Lions selection of Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall in 2023) here when it comes to any RB-draft value discourse.

The Bears did a lot of work to bolster their offensive line before the draft, paving the way for Jeanty here. The Boise State running back has outstanding balance and ball carrier vision as highlights of an endless list of strengths. He thrives in both gap and zone runs and would be a perfect lead back for the diversity of run concepts Johnson will likely integrate into the Chicago offense.

11. WALTER NOLEN

Ole Miss · DL

Similar to Carolina, I would be pretty surprised if San Francisco’s first-round pick was not used to bolster their front seven.

Mykel Williams and Shemar Stewart each took Top-30 visits with the 49ers. Both prospects are physical marvels who would be an intriguing fit opposite Nick Bosa. But this is a primarily a four-down, wide-9 scheme in San Francisco, who has Robert Saleh returning as a second stint at defensive coordinator. Stewart and Williams played in 3-4 style defenses in the SEC in college, that often asked them to either play over/inside the tackle or as a stand-up edge rusher, something San Francisco rarely does.

I think they may view Walter Nolen (also had a Top-30 visit here), a former No. 1 overall high school recruit, as a fit as a penetrating three-technique who can create pressure inside. The 49ers know all too well how an important defensive piece that is from Chris Jones’ play for the Chiefs in their Super Bowl VLIII loss.

12. TETAIROA MCMILLAN

Arizona · WR

I thought about both Omarion Hampton and Shemar Stewart here for a Cowboys team who lacks a premier lead back and possibly needs a power-based EDGE replacement for Demarcus Lawrence.

McMillan is a 6-4, 219-pound receiver who moves fairly well after the catch and has good body control for his size. He uses his large catch radius to pluck balls out of the air and can be a factor both as an X-receiver on the outside and as a big slot option.

CeeDee Lamb actually spent 50% of his time in the slot last season for the Cowboys, according to PFF, so McMillan best projects as primarily a boundary option for Dak Prescott here.

13. KENNETH GRANT

Michigan · DL

The Dolphins desperately need help along the interior defensive line in their 3-4 scheme after Calias Campbell signed with Arizona. Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is a former Ravens player and recent Baltimore defensive coach under John Harbaugh. The Baltimore Raven-Michigan Wolverine defensive ties run deep over the last decade between the Harbaugh brothers.

Coming from virtually the same 3-4/Nickel 2-4-5 scheme in Michigan that Weaver coached under in Baltimore, Grant is a perfect fit inside as a versatile defender with alignment versatility to play multiple spots. At 6-4, 331 pounds, Grant played both nose tackle and in the B-gap last season at Michigan. He has the ability to two-gap in the run game and also adds value as a pass rusher.

14. TYLER WARREN

Penn St · TE

The Colts have a major need at tight end, and Tyler Warren has often been comped to Dallas Clark, which makes this fit both realistic and fun.

Warren (6-5, 256) has a rare toughness-athleticism combo at the position. He barrels over defenders in YAC opportunities and at times lined up as a Wildcat QB.

He is a true move piece who can play in-line as a ‘Y’, in the wing position as an H-back, or flexed out in the slot. He is both a pass catcher and playmaker in the passing game and is a factor as an in-line blocker in the run game.

15. MIKE GREEN

Marshall · EDGE

I prefer Mykel Williams as a 3-4 OLB, but the Falcons were 31st in the league in sacks (31) in 2024, and desperately need some juice here.

Green (6-3, 251 lbs) is an explosive, twitchy pass rusher who led the FBS in sacks (17) last season and generated 53 pressures, per SIS. He is also phenomenal against the run garnering a 90.2 run defense grade from PFF last season.

He spent 100% of his snaps last season in a 2-point stance as an edge rusher (via SIS, SumerSports) and projects as a stand-up EDGE in Raheem Morris’ 3-4 defensive scheme.

16. MYKEL WILLIAMS

Georgia · EDGE

Former Eagles DC and current Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon gets a remade EDGE group in one offseason with the signing of former Eagle Josh Sweat and the selection of Georgia’s Mykel Williams here.

Williams is a massive/lengthy (6-5, 260, 34 3/8 arms) and athletic prospect who battled through an injury last year and spent a lot of time playing over or inside the tackle as a 4i/5 technique in Kirby Smart’s 3-4/Odd ‘Mint’ and ‘Tite’ fronts. Georgia sort of used him like they did 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker at times.

Williams spent 85% of his time lined up in a 3-point stance in pass rush situations last season, per SumerSports. He projects to play as a stand-up EDGE in Gannon’s 3-4/Nickel 2-4-5 scheme here, where he should be able to reach his potential as a pass rusher. He’s also phenomenal in run defense, so he can line up on the strong side in a 2-point stance over or outside the tight end. His presence should allow Josh Sweat (2.5 sacks in Super Bowl LIX) to rush more from the weak side.

17. NICK EMMANWORI

South Carolina · SAF

Assuming the Bengals are able to work things out with Trey Hendrickson, they nab Nick Emmanwori here as a strategic piece in the AFC arms race.

The conference currently goes through Kansas City, and scanning the landscape for other elite teams/offenses (Buffalo, Baltimore), you’ll find that that offenses led by Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all operate heavily both underneath and in the middle of the field. Look around and you’ll see many of those teams top targets are tight ends (Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Dalton Kincaid) or receivers (Khalil Shakir, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice) that operate underneath and inside.

Emmanwori won’t be a true deep, centerfield replacement for Jessie Bates that they’ve needed, but he can play as an enforcer in the box, as a middle-field rover, or can operate in two-deep looks with the ability to man-up on athletic tight ends on third down. He also has a bonkers athletic profile at 6-3, 220 running a 4.38 40-yard dash with a 43-inch vertical jump.

18. KELVIN BANKS JR.

Texas · OL

They Seahawks know they must improve on the offensive line, particularly on the inside. Banks (6-5, 315) is viewed as a guard by some teams and I’m projecting him there here in Seattle.

Banks played well at tackle last year for Steve Sarkisian’s offense that features a lot of wide zone (SIS has Banks’ run-blocking reps as a 60-40 split toward zone concepts last season). That’ll serve well for new Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

19. JAHID CAMPBELL

Alabama · LB/EDGE

Lavonte David was re-signed to a one-year deal but he enters his age-35 season, and the Buccaneers need another off-ball linebacker for Todd Bowles 3-4 defense anyhow.

For a team that once got great play out of Devin White, Campbell offers explosiveness, athleticism and sidelinie-to-sideline ability with much more length (6-3, 235 lbs).

He’ll be an effective blizer, and can even play his fair share of snaps as a stand-up edge rusher. He was originally recruited to Alabama to play EDGE, per NFL Network‘s Daniel Jeremiah.

20. OMARION HAMPTON

UNC · RB

I almost wanted to slot Luther Burden here because of Sean Payton’s ‘Joker‘ role comment during Super Bowl week, but the signing of Evan Engram should be able to help there, and Burden is looking like a Day 2 pick.

In Omarion Hampton the Broncos get a ready-made, 20+ carries-a-game back with size (6-0, 221 lbs), burst and aggression as a north-south, no-nonsense runner. NFL Network‘s Lance Zierlein comps Hampton to Rhamondre Stevenson and calls him a “battering ram” in his scouting profile write-up.

21. DERRICK HARMON

Oregon · DL

This could be a Jaxson Dart or Jalen Milroe landing spot while the Steelers wait to hear from Aaron Rodgers, but in this first-round mock draft with no trades, I push Dart, Milroe and Tyler Slough to the Round 2/Day 2 chaos.

Cameron Heyward was unbelievable in 2024 but he’ll be 36 years old entering this season. It’s been since the Steel Curtain years that Pittsburgh has played anything but a 3-4 scheme on defense. They’ll need a capable defensive lineman to take the baton. And it’s not very easy to find NFL-sized defenders capable of sliding into a 5-tech role with prior experience.

Harmon spent most of his time in the B-gap or over the tackle as a 4i/5-tech at Oregon last season in Dan Lanning’s Georgia-inspired 3-4/Mint front defense. It’s a very similar snap count alignment to how Heyward is utilized in Pittsburgh.

Harmon led all FBS defensive tackles in pressures (37) last season, according to SIS. He has the ability to penetrate and shoot gaps, even further inside as a 3-tech, in pass rush situations. He can also two-gap in the run game.

“He plays like a Raven or a Steeler. Off the tape, he reminds me of a young Cam Heyward but bigger,” an NFC executive said to NFL Network‘s Lance Zierlein. That’ll do.

22. COLSTON LOVELAND

Michigan · TE

The Chargers need help along the defensive line if they are to play how they’d like in their 3-4 scheme, but with Kenneth Grant off the board, there’s another Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan man that was hard to pass up. Everyone who has Loveland getting by the Colts at pick No. 14 seems to have this mocked, and I can understand why.

Coleston Loveland gives Justin Herbert a safety blanket receiver on third down. He’ll be the offense’s No. 2 pass catcher behind Ladd McConkey as a tight end who can flex out in the slot, but also hold up in run blocking in-line or in the wing as an H-back.

Loveland has great hands and size (6-6, 248 lbs) and has the body control and route-running ability of a pro wide receiver.

23. JAHDAE BARRON

Texas · CB

With or without Jaire Alexander going forward, the Packers need to think about help on the boundary at cornerback. Jahdae Barron is a versatile defensive back who spent more time outside at Texas last season after initially manning the STAR role.

The Packers were a Cover-3 and Cover-2 heavy scheme last year, which fits Barron nicely whether he plays outside or in the slot. Barron played zone coverage on 80% of his pass defense snaps last season, per SIS.

24. SHAVON REVEL JR.

ECU · CB

The Vikings played much more zone coverage than man last season. In an ideal world, I believe Brian Flores would like to live in single-high safety looks playing Cover-1, Cover-3 and more Cover-0. To do that they’ll need better play at cornerback.

Shavon Revel Jr. is recovering from a torn ACL but should be ready for next season, and Minnesota likely got a good look at him during their reported Top-30 visit. The East Carolina product has a great story and background, and is the epitome of perseverance and mental toughness.

Revel has the desired size (6-2, 194 lbs), length and traits to thrive as a press-man or Cover-3/Cover-4 cornerback on the outside.

25. JOSH SIMMONS

Ohio St · OT

The Texans signed Cam Robinson and Trent Brown to 1-year deals, but that shouldn’t stop them from thinking toward the future here.

Simmons may not be ready for this season after suffering a knee injury this past season, but many projected him as the top offensive tackle in this draft prior to the injury.

New Texans OC Nick Caley already added former Patriots fullback Jakob Johnson to the roster, suggesting he may impliment a diverse running game containing principles learned from both his time under Josh McDaniels (fullback/21 personnel, power concepts) and Sean McVay (zone concepts, duo, etc.).

Simmons blocked for a healthy mix of zone and gap runs at Ohio State, and he has the fluidity to mirror rushers in the passing game.

Like the man that brought both of them into the NFL in Josh McDaniels, Nick Caley and Texans GM Nick Caserio are former John Carrol University grads and Ohio natives. You can imagine that they are well-versed and plugged in with Ohio State and the defending champion Buckeyes. If not Simmons, Donovan Jackson or Emeka Egbuka work here, too.

26. EMEKA EGBUKA

Ohio St · WR

I was as close as you could imagine to mocking Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston here for a Rams team that needs help in the secondary and assumedly would like to continue building up their defense. But the fit for Emeka Egbuka here is too much to pass up.

The Rams loved to employ Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in similar ways. Now Kupp is in Seattle and the Rams signed Davante Adams and re-signed Tutu Atwell. I think Adams projects as their X-receiver, and I’m not sure Sean McVay will ever use Atwell as more than a borderline WR3/WR4 in this lineup.

Egbuka is the perfect fit for Kupp as he has a similar build (6-1, 202 lbs) with polished route-running, adept feel for zone coverage and the toughness/willingness to block inside from condensed formations in the running game.

27. DONOVAN EZEIRUAKU

Boston College · EDGE

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta hails from Taunton, Massachusetts, just 45 minutes from where Donovan Ezeiruaku played at Boston College. They may think James Pearce Jr. has more upside as a stand-up EDGE here, but I lean toward Ezeiruaku as both a better scheme and cultural fit for the Ravens.

Ezeiruaku led the FBS with 69 pressures last season (per SIS) and was second in sacks (15.5). He spent almost all of his snaps out wide as a stand-up EDGE in Boston College’s defense that runs a base Nickel 2-4-5 with similarities to the Ravens scheme.

28. SHEMAR STEWART

Texas A&M · EDGE

The Lions take advantage of a high-end potential prospect falling a bit further than some may anticipate here.

Stewart has an outstanding athletic profile at 6-5, 267 pounds with a 4.59 40-yard dash and 40-inch vertical jump. The Lions have been searching for pass rush help opposite Aidan Hutchinson and Stewart should thrive here as a power 4-3 defensive end in a three-point stance in Detroit after playing primarily as a stand-up edge rusher or over the tackle at Texas A&M.

29. MATTHEW GOLDEN

Texas · WR

This is another Maxwell Hairston landing spot, or even where a third running back such as Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson may sneak into Day 1, but Matthew Golden projects nicely here as an inside-outside weapon in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

Many opine he does not play to his 4.29 40-yard dash speed registered at the combine, but Golden presents as an upgrade at the Z-receiver spot here over Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey, where he’d compliment Terry McLaurin (X), Deebo Samuel (F/move piece).

Kingsbury’s offense is traditionally a spread-you-out operation that features a heavy dose of RPOs, which is not dissimilar to the offense Golden played in under Steve Sarkisian at Texas or in the Air Raid operation he was at previously in Houston. Sarkisian was reportedly in the mix to be Kingsbury’s offensive coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals back in 2019.

30. MAXWELL HAIRSTON

Kentucky · CB

There’s been a lot of analyst buzz here about Ole Miss cornerback Trey Amos, who took a Top-30 visit to Buffalo. But with Maxwell Hairston still available, it’s hard to ignore his potential.

Hairston is a fluid mover who ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. He played mostly zone coverage at Kentucky, and the Bills are predominantly a zone-heavy scheme. Even though Hairston could improve his physicality for the pro game, this is a solid addition opposite Christian Benford.

31. JOSH CONERLY JR

Oregon · OL

Whether he challenges Jaylon Moore at left tackle, Kingsley Suamataia at left guard or Jawaan Taylor at right tackle, the Chiefs will develop and eventually find a spot for Josh Conerly Jr along the offensive line.

He is an athletic blocker who is farther along as a pass blocker than he is in the running game. But the Chiefs aren’t as bare in the road-grader department (see: Trey Smith). Their main goal this offseason is to improve in the trenches after what transpired in Super Bowl LIX. Conerly may work as both a future and immediate improvement at multiple positions up front.

32. MALAKI STARKS

Georgia · SAF

The Eagles could opt for offensive line help in the form of Donovan Jackson or Tyler Booker here, or they could take advantage of James Pearce’s availability, but their current depth chart after C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s release suggests safety is a major need.

The Georgia Bulldog-Philadelphia Eagle defensive pipeline continues here with Malaki Starks, who projects as an immediate starter in Vic Fangio’s two-high safety lineup.

“Sources at Georgia speak very highly of his character,” NFL Network‘s Daniel Jeremiah says. “His intelligence and leadership ability have blown NFL teams away in meetings.”

Starks spent 54% of his snaps in the slot or in the box last season for Georgia, per PFF, giving him the versatility to do a variety of things post-snap in Fangio’s spin-the-dial deployments.

Brent Schwartz’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft

Posted on April 4, 2024September 23, 2024 by Brent Schwartz

We’re almost there. Two more weeks from today, this year’s top NFL Draft prospects will hear their names called in Detroit.

Each draft comes with its storylines and hype, but it’s not a stretch to say this is one of the four or five most exciting draft classes of the 21st century. (Unless that’s just the Patriots fandom in me talking?) Nevertheless, this draft is projected to go 1-2-3 with QBs, and possibly even 1-2-3-4 or four quarterbacks selected in the top five. Heck there’s even a shot we see six QBs selected in the top 13! This also feels like a historic class of wide receivers and offensive tackles. We could easily see nine offensive players selected with the first 10 picks, which is what I have below.

Well, let’s get started.

I’ll begin with deeper dives on the projected top QB placements, before using educated guesses and scheme knowledge/draft history to help project the entire first round of the draft and some fun Round 2 fits for teams.

1. CALEB WILLIAMS

USC · QB

Williams enters the draft as arguably one of the four or five most touted quarterback draft prospects of the last 25-plus years. Since Peyton Manning, you could make the case that only Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence were more anticipated pro passers with a year-plus left in their collegiate careers.

Spare the off-the-field, debate-show semantics around Williams’ personality. Few prospects have ever been more tailored to their era than Williams entering the NFL now.

The 2022 Heisman winner has a rocket arm, a knack for playmaking in and out of the pocket, and is superb in his off-platform throws and unique throwing angles. He’s Mahomes-ian in many ways — including his time spent under Kliff Kingsbury in college — and there’s possibly a dash of more on-the-move Aaron Rodgers ability to his game, as well.

Valid concerns include his hunting for big plays versus taking proper checkdown throws, as well as his projection from a college-style offense to a pro one. His 6-foot-1, 214-pound frame doesn’t bother me, as he has a stouter/muscular build that is halfway Jalen Hurts-ian (and maybe more Mahomes, again). He should be able to take the hits. Chicago fans should be excited for this new era.

2. JAYDEN DANIELS

LSU · QB

Things immediately get a bit tricky/educated guess-y with pick No. 2. No know truly knows if Washington prefers Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. I lean with the Commanders taking the LSU QB here.

No player skyrocketed up draft boards during the 2023 college football season quite like Daniels. His eye-popping numbers earned him a Heisman trophy in December, and now many are wondering how his game will translate to the pros.

His slender frame (6-4, 210 lbs) and Evel Knievel-ish running style are somewhat concerning, but Daniels’ straight-line speed, throwing mechanics and passing accuracy are a delightful combination.

Even if you take away his speed, he looks like a natural thrower in the pocket, especially throwing outside the numbers. He has a beautiful touch and lightning-quick release. His arm strength is adequate for the pro game, but his tuck-and-run ability seems too frequent and impatient for the NFL level. There’s not many throw-on-the-run reps on film. He either throws in-pocket or moves off his progression and runs. His college scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (9.4%) was higher than Justin Fields’ mark (8%) and much higher than Caleb Williams (3%). (h/t @fball_insights).

Ultimately, new Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is one of the more qualified teachers when it comes to ushering in a unique prospect like Daniels to the pros. Daniels should spend almost all of his time in shotgun in Washington. He’s not a dual threat QB who thrives on designed rushes. He doesn’t move laterally like Lamar Jackson, nor does he sport the Ravens QB’s quickness. Daniels also lacks the frame to pull off Cam Newton-esque ‘QB power’ concepts or Jalen Hurts-like zone-read reps. Daniels is more of a scrambler. He’ll need to adapt to NFL-level middle-of-the-field reads, but there’s great ability in him if activated. It’ll be fascinating to witness.

3. DRAKE MAYE

UNC · QB

The Patriots will surely receive trade offers from teams like the Vikings and Giants for this pick, especially if Maye is available, but there’s no predicting the future when it comes to QB talent and draft positioning in 2025. Despite fielding a borderline expansion-level offensive roster pre-draft, the Jerod Mayo/Eliot Wolf-era truly begins with the selection of Drake Maye here.

Maye is your classic “built in a lab” QB prospect with ideal size (6-4, 223 lbs) and arm talent. He struggled some in his final college season at North Carolina, but his supporting cast wasn’t all that great.

Maye processes and lasers in NFL-level middle-of-the-field throws better than anyone in this class, and he has the athletic ability and playmaking traits to thrive off-script. However, he has an elongated throwing motion and tends to drift in the pocket, often throwing without his feet set. There’s some electric off-platform throws mixed in with some off-the-mark, inaccurate darts. There’s mechanical issues that will need some work, and he’ll need to develop more ball placement consistency.

OC Alex Van Pelt and former Giants head coach Ben McAdoo lead the new brass of Patriots quarterback development. Van Pelt puts a great deal of stock into footwork and mechanics when it come to passing.

Maye, along with Williams and Daniels, spent over 90 percent of his college snaps in shotgun, according to TruMedia, which isn’t a rarity for college ball. Maye has more work in pistol formations, where the QB turns his back to the defense on play-action throws. That’s a start, but the Patriots coaching staff will be tasked with teaching Maye how to thrive on under-center play-action concepts we can probably expect from a Van Pelt offense on early downs.

But the talent is obviously there. Maye leads all college quarterbacks since 2022 in two key PFF metrics: big-time throws (79) and passing grade (96.7).

If picks 2 and 3 do go this way, I think this: Washington is a much better scheme fit for Jayden Daniels than New England. And although Drake Maye could fit in any system (Shanahan-style, Josh McDaniels, Air Raid, etc.), he’s certainly the best fit for the Patriots, from New England’s perspective.

Unlike QB-needy teams who have a plan in motion and roster in place to compete (think: Minnesota), New England needs far more than a run-of-the-mill first-round QB prospect. They essentially need a quarterback “Messiah,” and after Williams, Maye best fits that mold. New England should be happy to take the Tar Heel here.

4. MARVIN HARRISON JR.

Ohio St · WR

This should be an easy selection for Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort.

Son of Peyton Manning’s favorite target, Marvin’s skillset transcend that of just a Hall-of-Fame wide receiver’s kid. He’s lauded as one of the best receiver prospects of all-time. In terms of pre-draft hype, he seems firmly in the Larry Fitzgerald-Calvin Johnson-Ja’Marr Chase pantheon.

The 6-foot-3, 209-pound Harrison is a route-runners delight, drawing warranted comparisons to Davante Adams as a taller receiver with incredible smoothness and polish as a quick-footed separator. Because of that, he can move around the formation as both a perimeter and slot option, despite playing 84% of his Ohio State snaps on the boundary.

Harrison gives Kyler Murray a top-flight receiving option, and helps establish a pass-catching pecking order that continues with promising tight end Trey McBride and sure-handed possession receiver Michael Wilson.

5. J.J. MCCARTHY

Michigan · QB

TRADE! Minnesota unloads picks No. 11 and No. 23 and a few mid-round selections to move up to No. 5 for the Michigan QB.

Many will point to McCarthy’s not-asked-to-do-much resume at Michigan, but I’d argue his throw-on-the-run and crunch-time reps are pretty impressive on tape.

The National Championship-winning QB is a bit of a projection, but to me, he’s certainly worthy a first-round selection if you’re running a more-established Shanahan/McVay-style offense.

Minnesota already has the weapons (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) and bridge QB (Sam Darnold) to help ease McCarthy into the league.

With time, he could turn into a menace on under-center, play-action bootleg reps. This could be an odd comp if you can’t see it, but to me he’s a college basketball-esque, senior point guard distributor. He’s a great athlete with ample size (6-2, 219 lbs). His potential is that of a new-age version of a classic/vintage west-coast passer with middle-of-field accuracy and intangibles that eventually could help the Vikings get back to winning close games (11-0 in one-score games in 2022).

6. MALIK NABERS

LSU · WR

With quarterbacks flying off the board, the Giants go with the explosive, jet pack-charged Nabers here to elevate a depleted receiving core.

Nine out of 10 drafts, Nabers would be a surefire WR1. Nabers has absurd speed and YAC ability for his size (6-0, 200lbs). PFF graded him first among his draft class peers in just about every WR metric — grades on receiving, vs. man coverage, vs. zone coverage, in the slot.

He can line up anywhere (54% of college snaps in slot, 46% on outside). He’s drawn comps to former LSU star Odell Beckham Jr. That fits the bill to me, but he has more quick-slant-to-the-house potential and less catch-point ability.

Nabers would help set the target order for QB Daniel Jones, who has Darius Slayton, vertical threat (only) Jalin Hyatt, gadgety Wan’Dale Robinson and tight end Darren Waller at the top of the pass-catching totem pole right now.

7. JOE ALT

Notre Dame · OT

Pretty easy selection here I think if Tennessee stays put. The QB/WR superstars at the top of the draft have overshadowed what many believe is a future All-Pro left tackle in Joe Alt.

Alt is a massive presence (6-9, 321 lbs) with combine metrics worthy of one of the best draft prospects at his position, ever. Coming over from San Francisco, Titans GM Ran Carthon gets his Trent Williams here to help usher in the Will Levis-era, even if Williams and Alt are different prospects. New Tennessee head coach Brian Callahan and father Bill (OL coach; former Raiders head coach) will be happy with this.

8. ROME ODUNZE

UW · WR

TRADE! With the Bears in play for Odunze and the possibility of the Bills making a Julio Jones trade-equivalent move up here, the Jets jump up two spots to ensure they snag an alpha-male WR prospect.

Similar to what I wrote in the Nabers selection, Odunze would probably be a WR1 in most drafts.

He’s more polished than Malik Nabers, with similar ball skills and catch-point ability as DeAndre Hopkins, but with better size (6-3, 212 lbs), speed, strentgth/physicality and yards-after-catch/contact potential.

The Jets patched up the offensive line in free agency and now can pair Odunze with Garrett Wilson, giving Aaron Rodgers one of the nastier X-Z receiver combos in pro football.

9. BROCK BOWERS

Georgia · TE

Between Rome Odunze and Brock Bowers, the Bears and Jets will probably be in play for both prospects around this area of draft night.

New Bears OC Shane Waldron was a 12 personnel-heavy play-caller in Seattle before the Seahawks drafted slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Ngiba last spring. With D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen in the fold for Caleb Williams, the Bears blur the line between 11 and 12 personnel looks by complimenting traditional ‘Y’ tight end Cole Kmet with Bowers.

The Georgia product is one of the top five non-QB prospects in this draft in my opinion. Chicago can move the 6-3, 243-pound playmaker around the formation, but I see him best used as a slot playmaker who maybe lines up in Dalton Kincaid-ish spots, but has George Kittle-like ability.

10. DALLAS TURNER

Alabama · EDGE

Atlanta moves back two spots and still gets Dallas Turner to help optimize a pass rush that struggled last season.

New Falcons defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake plans to run a base 3-4 defense, where Turner will slot in at either stand-up EDGE spot. The 6-3, 247-pound Alabama product has deviant bend in his pass-rush moves, and coming from a Nick Saban defense, you know he can set the edge in the run game. Atlanta needs this level of athleticism and physicality on the edge. They get it here.

11. TALIESE FUAGA

Oregon St · OT

The Chargers swap places with the Broncos and land a made-for-Jim Harbaugh mauler at right tackle to compliment Rashawn Slater on the left side, and to help begin the franchise’s transformation into a tough-in-the-trenches squad.

Some project Fuaga better as a guard, but he has the size (6-6, 324 lbs) and potential as a pass blocker and should adjust to pro edge rushers over time. As a run blocker, he should enter the league as a powerful force from Day 1. Operation “keep Justin Herbert upright and make his life easier with a running game” begins now.

12. LAIATU LATU

UCLA · EDGE

Many have Bo Nix and/or Michael Penix Jr. going at picks 12 and 13 to Denver and Las Vegas, but I think they each get their name called later.

As a pure pass rusher, I like Latu more than I do the more-complete Dallas Turner. He’s extremely skilled and polished working his way to the QB.

Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph needs a winner on the edge for his 3-4 scheme, and Latu provides that.

13. J.C. LATHAM

Alabama · OT

Vegas lands a massive right tackle here in Latham (6-6, 342 lbs) to pair with Kolton Miller on the left side.

The Raiders need some work on the right side of their offensive line, so this helps set a foundation for them in the trenches.

The ‘Bama product offers potentially-dominant ability in the run game as a “throw ’em out the club” people mover, and he has the quickness and foot work to pick things up quickly in pass protection.

14. OLU FASHANU

Penn State · OT

This seems like a steal for the Saints if Fashanu falls this far. The Penn State left tackle was seen as a top-five player in this class by some earlier in the scouting process.

Labeling him “raw” is doing a disservice to the skills he’s already shown on film, but there will be a learning curve.

2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning has struggled at left tackle and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk may not play again. Fashanu would slot in at either spot.

15. QUINYON MITCHELL

Toledo · CB

Mitchell backs up an impressive Senior Bowl and combine showing by being the first cornerback off the board.

He has exceptional athleticism, explosiveness and ball skills. The Colts played more Cover-3 than any other team last season under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Mitchell should fit in well on the outside, with the ability to play man coverage on third down.

16. TROY FAUTANU

UW · OL

This is probably one of the more common player-team predictions in mock drafts. I like the idea of Laiatu Latu playing stand-up EDGE in Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme, but with the UCLA product off the board earlier, new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb gets one of his Washington guys.

Despite lacking the preferred length for a NFL tackle, Fautanu could probably get away with it due to his talent and skillset. But first, he slots in to one of the Seahawks’ guard spots to help improve the offensive line.

17. TERRION ARNOLD

Alabama · CB

A top-tier cornerback prospect falls to No. 17 for the second consecutive draft (Christian Gonzalez to Patriots in ’23).

Wide receiver is certainly a need with Calvin Ridley now in Tennessee, but the Jaguars get one of this draft’s top defensive players here.

Whether a zone-heavy or man-based coverage scheme, Arnold slots just about anywhere as a boundary or slot option. He’s feisty when attacking the ball, and should help a Jacksonville defense that struggled down the stretch in 2023.

18. BRIAN THOMAS JR.

LSU · WR

My hunch is the Bengals work out a trade for Tee Higgins (second-round pick and change?) during the draft, which allows them to go with an uber-talented vertical receiving threat on the perimeter here.

Thomas (6-3, 209 lbs) has a similar frame as Higgins (6-4, 219 lbs). He’s less of a jump-ball winner as the receiver he’ll replace, but Thomas is a more explosive threat (4.34 speed) with better route-running fluidity.

With Trent Brown in the fold to handle right tackle duties, Cincinnati can pass on an offensive tackle here and reach for rookie-contract upside in the receiving core with Higgins and Tyler Boyd out the door.

19. BYRON MURPHY II

Texas · DL

This not strictly a draft-for-need choice for the Aaron Donald-less Rams. Murphy is a quick, explosive interior disruptor with some of the same pre-draft size concerns (6-0, 297 lbs) as Donald.

The Rams began shifting away from 3-4 looks to more four-down fronts in 2023. But Murphy has some good 5-tech rep on film from Texas, if he is to fill in there in Raheem Morris’ 3-3-5 fronts.

20. AMARIUS MIMS

Georgia · OT

Mims has only eight collegiate starts at tackle. But even with the small amount of reps on film, his dominance shows out.

Let’s cut to the chase — he is GARGANTUAN. Standing at 6-foot-8 and weighing 340 pounds, he packs obvious power and surprising nimbleness. He doesn’t appear raw when looking at this Georgia tape.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off the board in the early teens (Vegas?), but here the Steelers are able to move Mims’ former Bulldog teammate, Broderick Jones, to left tackle. Mims slots in nicely on the right side, and between the tackle duo, and former Georgia tight end Darnell Washington, good luck trying to play run defense versus that downhill stampede.

21. GRAHAM BARTON

Duke · OL

Barton played the majority of his time at left tackle at Duke, but he began his college career as a center.

Barton has the versatility to slot in at center or either guard spot with Miami barren at the position after losing Robert Hunt in free agency.

The Duke product is very quick for his size (6-5, 315 lbs) and should fit in nicely moving in space in Miami’s outside-zone heavy rushing scheme.

22. COOPER DEJEAN

Iowa · DB

The Eagles’ Achilles heel on defense last season was the subpar play and deterioration of the linebacking core and secondary. With Vic Fangio in town as defensive coordinator, Philly selects one of the draft’s most versatile athletes.

DeJean is a ball skills aficionado with both basketball-level athleticism and the toughness to tackle in the run game.

With C.J. Gardner-Johnson back in town to handle nickel duties, Philly can opt to use DeJean at boundary cornerback, or move him around to emphasize his ability to play safety and in the slot.

23. ADONAI MITCHELL

Texas · WR

Harbaugh and Chargers GM Joe Hortiz almost begrudgingly take a talented receiver here before the second run begins.

I think even they know that they just can’t operate by leaving the receiving core as barren as is. After landing an offensive tackle, they dip into the well for a X-receiver with size (6-2, 205 lbs), speed (4.34), and superb body control. He’s a nuanced and polished route-runner who comes in ready to be Justin Herbert’s top target. Harbaugh can put his A.J. Jenkins-PTSD behind him here to give Herbert some help.

24. TYLER GUYTON

Oklahoma · OT

Dallas lost long-time bookend left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz this offseason. Oregon center Jackson-Powers Johnson could be the selection, but I have Dallas going with more potential upside here by selecting Guyton to play left tackle, allowing them to keep All-Pro Tyler Smith at left guard.

Guyton is a raw prospect, but he’s shown the ability to play well in space in zone-rushing schemes, while also packing enough power to block defenders in gap-style runs like counter.

25. NATE WIGGINS

Clemson · CB

The Packers go back to the first-round cornerback well here considering their lukewarm return on Eric Stokes and odd behavior from Jaire Alexander.

Wiggins size is a bit of an issue (6-1, 173 lbs) but he uses his length to operate pretty well in press coverage. He also ran a 4.28 40 at the combine. The Packers take a chance on his athleticism, height and coverage smoothness here.

26. JARED VERSE

FSU · EDGE

This could be a bit low for Verse, who projects better as a hand-in-the-dirt, athletic 4-3 defensive end who I initially liked for the Texans before their swap with the Vikings.

Here, Tampa makes it work with Verse at their 3-4 outside linebacker spot with Shaquil Barrett out the door. The Florida State product has the size (6-4, 254 lbs), burst and power to provide pass rush juice for a Bucs team that needs more from that spot despite investing a first-rounder in Joe Tryon-Shoyinka a few years back.

27. JORDAN MORGAN

Arizona · OT

TRADE! Even before the Rashee Rice situation, the Hollywood Brown addition was probably not enough to help improve Kansas City’s pass-catching core, but they also currently sit without a left tackle with Donovan Smith unsigned.

Morgan lacks the typical size of a NFL left tackle, and he’s better suited for an outside-zone rushing team like Miami than a inside, gap scheme Kansas City has gravitated to, but I’m betting Morgan’s quickness in pass protection to battle speed rushers catches Kansas City’s eye here.

28. XAVIER WORTHY

Texas · WR

With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, Buffalo taps the new 40-yard dash combine record holder (4.21) as a Tyreek Hill emulator or ‘lite’ version.

Worthy is more than just a burner, and he has inside-outside versatility, but he’s nowhere near a Hill-level talent at the catch point.

Ladd McConkey was considered here as a less boom-or-bust, more polished route runner, but Buffalo can take a chance on a big play threat here with Allen’s gunslinger mentality and arm strength.

29. ENNIS RAKESTRAW

Mizzou · CB

Even after adding Carlton Davis in free agency, the Lions add a boundary cornerback to a roster that doesn’t seem to have a glaring need.

Rakestraw has an auroa of energy and toughness and plays aggressively. He also takes on blockers while defending the run. He’s superb there. He’ll fit in perfectly with Dan Campbell’s Lions as a potential season-long growth project who could come up huge in January.

30. DARIUS ROBINSON

Mizzou · DL

This is a classic Ravens/Steelers/Belichick-era Patriots pick.

Robinson is a unique athlete in his positional versatility and size (6-5, 285 lbs). He reminds me somewhat of Keion White, New England’s second-round choice from last year, in that he is sort of a “tweener” who can play all along the line.

He probably won’t spend too much time as a stand-up edge defender in Baltimore’s scheme, but he certainly can help fill the void left by Jadeveon Clowney as a strong-side edge setter in the run game. He played a ton of 5-tech snaps at Missouri, so I could see him playing a bit there, then kicking further inside on passing downs to rush the passer next to Justin Madubuike.

31. LADD MCCONKEY

Georgia · WR

I’m more confident in a Tee Higgins trade than I am San Francisco dealing Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel anytime soon. If the 49ers can swing a Deebo trade without too much dead cap left behind, South Carolina WR Xavier Legette makes some sense to replace Deebo’s YAC ability.

But here, the 49ers get one of the best route-runners in the class to either accentuate or eventually replace Aiyuk.

McConkey makes defenders look silly in man coverage, and he’s a borderline Tier 1-operator when it comes to the top of the route. He excels there at a level only Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and A.D. Mitchell reside when it comes to this class. I see McConkey thriving with Aiyuk’s in-breaker-heavy route tree, and he even works well as an at-the-snap motion piece here.

I’m sure San Francisco would love a replacement for Colton McKivitz at right tackle, but with their options limited at this stage of Day 1, they boost their league-best offense with one of my favorite prospects.

32. CHOP ROBINSON

Penn St · EDGE

After moving back five spots in a trade with Kansas City, Arizona gets a twitchy edge rusher who could thrive in Jonathan Gannon’s defense with some development.

Robinson had a lot of hand-in-the-dirt pass-rushing snaps at Penn State, but he projects as more of a stand-up rusher in the pros. That bodes well in Arizona’s 3-4 defense. There’s a lot of boom-or-bust with this pick, but drafting talented development projects (he ran a 4.48 at 254 lbs) are sometimes what late-Round 1, early-Round 2 picks are for.

Round 2

Here are 15 fun Round 2 fits. I factored in team scheme into my projections.

33. XAVIER LEGETTE

SC · WR

Like the Patriots, the Panthers probably won’t fully solve their receiving core dilemma in this draft, but they can do their best to stock up on talent in a rich class at the position.

The South Carolina native and university grad stays close to home here with a team that reportedly wants him in the building.

Legette is one of favorite players in this entire draft. Whether it is his playing style or accent, he rocks as a prospect.

Only a few receivers in history have 4.3 speed weighing over 220 pounds. Legette is both A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf-ish with his size, speed and explosion. His RAS score is off the charts. But Legette projects as less of a pure X-receiver like Metcalf and more of a X/Z combo, or move piece who can thrive on crossers and with his YAC ability from condensed formations or different spots.

He can be a ball winner on fades and flies, but sticking him with a robust route tree right off the bat would likely be misusing his ability. If schemed right, he could be a difference maker right away for Carolina, a nice compliment to newcomer Diontae Johnson, who should handle the more diverse route tree.

34. KINGSLEY SUAMATAIA

BYU · OT

I’d love a receiver here for the Patriots (they can also figure out a trade for Tee Higgins), but it feels like they may prefer tackle considering the drop-off soon after. There could be a heavier late-Day 1 run on tackles than even I envision here, which would force them to pivot to pass-catcher, but if Suamataia is available, I think New England jumps at the chance for a skillful prospect with size, nastiness and movement ability for their projected zone-rushing scheme.

35. JER’ZHAN NEWTON

Illinois · DL

The Cardinals added Bilal Nichols, Justin Jones and the bulky Khyiris Tonga to their defensive line in free agency, but they could use a high-upside rookie here to further revamp in their makeover.

Newton is an undersized, but high-motor interior havoc-wrecker who would compliment some of the bigger bodies Arizona added in March.

36. MICHAEL PENIX JR.

UW · QB

TRADE! The Commanders have a wealth of premium picks, so selection No. 36 or 40 could be for sale for the right future assets. After failing to trade up for a Will Levis-esque trade with clubs at the very top of Round 2 who want to stick (Carolina, New England), Denver finally finds a suitor to jump Las Vegas (and perhaps Seattle?) here. Despite the Bo Nix-to-Denver projections, Penix become Sean Payton’s guy.

I like Penix’s culture fit with the Raiders as a tough/physical, comeback-from-injury story for Antonio Pierce’s rough-and-rowdy bunch, but Denver and New England are the most QB-needy teams in the draft, and Denver makes it known that Penix’s pocket presence, toughness and deep ball accuracy are something they covet.

The Washington QB has an odd arm delivery and will need to target the middle of the field more than he did in college, but his intangibles and mental toughness are something sorely needed in Denver’s rebuild, even if he doesn’t become the long-term solution. Penix also surprised many at his Pro Day with a reported 40-yard dash time of 4.51. That bodes well for any concerns regarding his knees.

37. ROMAN WILSON

Michigan · WR

Two receivers for the Chargers in the Top 40 seems unfathomable considering Jim Harbaugh’s positional importance guidelines but this move makes a ton of sense. He gets “his guy” at the high-volume Z/slot role after nabbing Mitchell for his X spot in Round 1. The Chargers’ receiving core is decimated pre-draft, but here they replenish the targets left behind by Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.

38. JACKSON POWERS-JOHNSON

Oregon · OL

TRADE! The Eagles have picks No. 50 and 53, along with four selections in Rounds 4 and 5, so they can figure out a package here to move up 12 spots for Powers-Johnson.

The Oregon center has great size (6-3, 328 lbs) for an interior blocker, and his hand work and ability to climb to the second level and move in space are excellent. He would flourish in the Eagles’ zone-read and inside zone looks.

Cam Jurgens started at right guard last year for Philly, and there’s the potential he was being groomed to take over for Jason Kelce at center. With Kelce’s retirement, the Eagles can go one of two ways with this selection by either putting Powers-Johnson at guard, or keeping Jurgens in place and putting the rookie at snapper.

39. JA’TAVION SANDERS

Texas · TE

The Panthers keep adding to their pass-catching core with an immediate starting option at tight end in Sanders, even if the Texas product is more of a ‘F’ or ‘flex’ option at the position.

Sanders has terrific ball skills and YAC ability and his tape shows better speed than his combine 40 (4.69) suggests. Like Legette, he’d be another plug-and-play playmaker for Carolina as they do their best to infuse some explosiveness and talent in to the offense.

43. RICKY PEARSALL

Florida · WR

With Zac Robinson taking over OC duties for the Falcons, you can expect a McVay, 11 personnel-heavy offense in Atlanta.

Drake London is there as an ‘X’ and Darnell Mooney should also project to start in 3-WR sets, but I think Atlanta is still looking to add competition for its WR3 duties.

There’s a chance they utilize Kyle Pitts in a unique way, but as of now, newcomers Ray-Ray McCloud and Rondale Moore feel like depth and gadget options more than a WR3.

Pearsall played most of his time in the slot at Florida (80% of snaps), but he has top-of-the-line quickness, great route-running, elusive YAC ability, and is fantastic at the catch point. He can thrive on both option routes and vertical concepts, and he’s also a willing blocker.

He seems like a perfect fit in a Shanahan/McVay style offense, where he’ll run option routes in spread looks and showcase his craftiness in condensed formation concepts.

44. KOOL-AID MCKINSTRY

Alabama · CB

Back-to-back Alabama selections to kick of the draft here for the Raiders, whose best cornerback on the roster right now is Patriots castoff Jack Jones.

McKinstry is a scheme-agnostic cornerback in terms of his fit. His high-IQ and dependable ability make him an immediate candidate to start on the outside.

He’d be a nice fit opposite Jack Jones, who is an uber-aggressive ball hawk.

45. BO NIX

Oregon · QB

With ample talk of a Bo Nix-Sean Payton combination kicking off the Denver rebuild, Nix ends up with Payton’s old team here as the Saints take a shot at a post-Derek Carr option for whenever they can maneuver their way around the cap in 2025 to get him off the books.

Nix is a better athlete than given credit for, and he has ample arm strength and pretty good accuracy to be a distributor in an up-tempo, quick passing game.

51. JERMAINE BURTON

Alabama · WR

The Steelers traded Dionte Johnson but added Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins this offseason. Pittsburgh is known for astutely drafting wide receivers, so they should absolutely reach into this class to upgrade their suddenly barren pass-catching group.

Burton is an underrated prospect because of the influx of WR talent. He’s a vertical threat/downfield ball winner in a different way than George Pickens, so he should compliment his former Georgia teammate (before Burton left for Alabama) here well.

In this scenario, Pickens would be the boundary-X, Jefferson would work inside as a route-running afficiando, and Burton would have the chance to become WR2 as an outside/vertical slot presence (he played 80% of snaps on perimeter in college).

56. PAYTON WILSON

N.C. State · LB

The Cowboys released Leighton Vander Esch and signed DC Mike Zimmer’s old pal Eric Kendricks this offseason.

Kendricks used to be the best pass coverage LB in the NFL during Zimmer’s days as Minnesota’s head coach but those days are long gone. Dallas could use someone like Wilson here in the front seven.

The NC State product is an incredible athlete and instinctive playmaker who reminds many of Luke Keuchly. He has range and length (6-4) and ran a 4.43 40 at the combine. But the develuation of linebackers, Wilson’s injury history and age (24) likely make him a Day 2 pick.

Wilson won the Butkus award for best linebacker in college football and also nabbed the Chuck Bednarik Award given to the nation’s best defensive player overall. Dallas should be ecstatic with the ACC Defensive Player of the Year and All-American here.

62. CHRISTIAN HAYNES

UConn · OG

The Ravens lost both guards this offseason. They may need to move up for Haynes, but either way I like the fit here. Baltimore gets a fiesty, quick-moving guard who has been comped to former-Patriot, current-Texan Shaq Mason.

He’s an excellent run blocker and finisher at the tail-end of plays. He’ll fit right in at Baltimore as a potential Day 1 starter.

63. ROGER ROSENGARTEN

UW · OT

The 49ers give competition to right tackle Colton McKivitz here with Rosengarten, who was coached by former 49er/Bronco Ed McCaffrey (Christian McCaffrey’s dad) in high school, and blocked in mostly a zone-based scheme while at Washington.

He may not start right away, but he has the potential to be an upgrade at right tackle.

64. MALACHI CORLEY

WKU · WR

If Rashee Rice is unavailable this season, the Chiefs are essentially left with soon-to-be-35-year-old Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown and gadget options Mecole Hardmon and Skyy Moore as Patrick Mahomes’ top pass catchers.

Post-Tyreek Hill, Kansas City became a more YAC-oriented underneath throwing offense. What better option here than “The YAC King” to help potentially replace Rice’s snaps?

Rice filled a role first filled by JuJu Smith-Schuster as a tough/dependable option on sit routes, drags and crossers. Corley’s average depth of target in 2023 (6.1, according to PFF) and yards-after-catch (2,068 over past three seasons; most in FBS) numbers paint a picture of how he operates as a 5-foot-11, 215-pound bulldozer to defensive backs.

There’s some concern over his ability to run a more diverse route tree. Failure to do so would mean a risk of overlap with Hardmon’s skillset, but I think Corley has the chops to become a unique horizontal threat with attitude in this Chiefs offense.

Mac Jones and Bill Belichick -- 2023 New England Patriots Training Camp

2023 New England Patriots Preview: Make or break season?

Posted on September 8, 2023March 5, 2024 by Brent Schwartz

With the first full Sunday slate of NFL games in 2023 just a few days away, few teams (maybe none) feel like they’re at a crossroads moment as much as these New England Patriots.

It’s been three years since Tom Brady left what is still the 21st century’s most successful North American sports franchise. But as the fourth post-GOAT campaign kicks off — all while honoring Brady in their Week 1 game versus Philadelphia — that moniker of success is now slow-rolling away, transforming into a frozen moment of time; albeit 20 years worth.

Things have felt a bit stagnant the last few seasons as Belichick mixes and matches ideas and strategies, with nothing concrete in place when it comes to franchise direction other than the building of his new-age (sort of) defense. And really, that’s…OK.

Belichick shed light over the summer on how long it takes to build a team from scratch:

“You know, ’96 was a big year for me here in New England,” Belichick told The 33rd Team/Mike Tannenbaum.

“Developed a great relationship with Mr. (Robert) Kraft and other people in the organization. When the opportunity came in 2000, even though this team was nowhere near the team we left in ’96 — it had declined quite a bit — there were still some pillars here that we could build with.

“I would say that by ’03 — even though we won in ’01 — that this was a pretty, pretty good football team in all three phases of the game. It kind of took the same basic four-year window that it took in Cleveland. We were fortunate to win in ’01, but I would say by ’03, ’04 we had one of the better teams in the league.”

Belichick is right. Modern day NFL coverage (debate shows, social media, etc.) has turned the analysis of any sort of rebuild/multi-year team-building into a frenzy of mostly engagement-seeking headlines and hysterics.

When Brady left in 2019, the Patriots had become cap-strapped, with their mini-Saints/Rams-like handling of Brady’s contract toward the end playing a major factor. They had absolutely no cap space in 2020, a year in which they paid Cam Newton just $1 million-$2 million to start at QB. They also had an aging team with bottom-of-the-league talent at the skill positions, fielding Damiere Byrd as it’s top WR option on the outside. So let’s just say, 2020 shouldn’t really count toward the rebuild. It was more of a standalone “reset,” specifically with their cap situation.

But 2021 and 2022 do count.

I’m not going to bore you with Matt Patricia-to-Bill O’Brien analysis. We’ve been through six or seven months of that. But the wasted 2022 season did feel like a setback. And despite some success in 2021, the end of that year was pretty discouraging, as well.

So even the most patient and knowledgeable people in the NFL media space have to admit that bills are beginning to come due. We’re not exactly sure what needs to happen this season with Belichick and the Patriots, but we know it must be something that can be registered as a positive takeaway as the team heads into 2024. There needs to be some direction, or a clear vision, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

To me, the biggest question and set of sub-questions with this Patriots organization at current is— where do they fit in in an era that Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs define as much as Belichick, Brady and the Patriots did in the 2000s and 2010s? Will they eventually be challengers? How do they get there?

Where does New England fit in an era of: the mobile quarterback, Shanahan offenses, speed over power at the skill position, lighter defensive boxes and front seven defenders, one-gap (or “gap and a half“) defensive lineman over old-school, big-ass two-gappers?

My take: even with the changes in today’s game, Belichick can be counted on to build a successful defense. But on offense, we should be in wait-and-see mode.

Publicly, Robert and Jonathan Kraft have voiced that a season like last year is unacceptable, while also toeing the line enough in praise of Belichick, his methods, and his job secruity. As Belichick approaches Don Shula’s all-time wins record (18 wins away; including playoffs), my guess is Belichick has a longer leash than public perception. But make no mistake, a ghastly 2023 season could mean the end. But I don’t see that happening.

Now, let’s get to the fun stuff.

*******

Week 1 Projected offense:

QB — Mac Jones

RB — Rhamondre Stevenson

X’ WR — Devante Parker

‘Z’ WR — Kendrick Bourne

‘Power’ Slot — JuJu Smith-Schuster

‘Y’/Traditional TE — Hunter Henry

LT — Trent Brown

LG — Cole Strange

C — David Andrews

RG — Michael Onwenu

RT — Calvin Anderson/Sidy Sow

Situational positions:

Early-down rotational RB — Ezekiel Elliott

‘Big Slot’/F-TE — Mike Gesicki

“Jitterbug” Slot — Demario Douglas

‘X’ WR/”Speed”/downfield Slot — Tyquan Thornton

‘X’ WR/’Z’ WR — Kayshon Boutte

Top backup Guard — Atonio Mafi

* * * * * * *

🏈 With a fifth-year option decision looming for the Patriots on Mac Jones in May, and a dynamite-looking QB draft class upcoming, Year 3 seems like the deciding season for Jones’ Patriots future. His sophomore slump can mostly be chalked up to the coaching/scheme disaster, but there’s real, there’s warranted concern over Jones’ ability to throw under pressure/against the blitz versus an NFL pass rush. He was 42nd among QBs in passer rating versus five or more rushers (70.7) last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. He also ranked 43rd out of 43 qualifying QBs in percentage of passes versus five or more rushers that resulted in positive EPA (28.4%). Still, it’s no surprise that all of Jones’ stats and efficiency metrics were way down last year. The Bailey Zappe “battle” for the starting job was always a silly story. Zappe doesn’t have the NFL ready-traits or arm that Jones has, but Zappe did seem a bit more comfortable in traditional Patriots/Brady shotgun-spread,”survey the field” point guard/distributor snaps. I think there’s something to be said for how Jones’ college experience translates to the pros, or at least, under Belichick in a traditional Patriots offense. The good news is, there’s no one more qualified than Bill O’Brien when it comes to making Jones more comfortable with the teachings of traditional Patriots concepts fused with Alabama/college-level designs. Under-center play-action passing, RPOs (and not the freshman-level bubble screens from last year) and shotgun, five-wide matchup hunting (Hoss Y Juke, etc.) are all on the menu. The hope is Jones fits two seasons of progression/improvement into 2023, putting him back on a normal progression path heading into 2024/Year 4. It may be a lot to ask, but it’s possible.

🏈 Rhamondre Stevenson, nicknamed “Franchise,” is the most exciting skill-position player the Patriots have. He’s an anomaly as a larger back (6-0, 227 lbs) with the ball carrier vision, quickness and make-you-miss ability of a smaller back. After Stevenson, the Patriots are mostly trotting out a RB-WR-TE group that falls somewhere between “what a great 2018 skill position group!” jokes and “this is definitely enough to keep pace with other offenses.” But there is reason for optimisim with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, even if with his declining play in Dallas. Elliott can still spell Stevenson as a between-the-tackles, early-down rusher and as an occasional pick-up-the-blitz blocker on third-down passing situations. Stevenson was clearly gassed at the end of last season, and the 2022 draft class duo of Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris was not enough on the depth chart. Strong, for one, was clearly drafted with the ham-handed idea of implementing an outside/wide zone running game already in mind for 2022, an endeavor that they abandoned pretty early on last season. Under O’Brien, expect a mix of gap-scheme power runs and shotgun inside-zone looks. Stevenson and Elliott should thrive there. The only possible issue is the effectiveness of classic Patriots power runs without a fullback on the roster.

🏈 At tight end, the Patriots subbed out Jonnu Smith for Mike Gesicki. New England never knew what to do with Smith, who should fit perfectly right back into Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta as an off-the-line/H-Back type in their zone-running/play-action scheme. Gesicki is purely a “big” slot receiver as opposed to a ‘Y’ tight end, like Hunter Henry. So like rookie receiving tight end Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo, the line between 11 and 12 personnel is blurred with Gesicki on the field as an athletic seam-stretcher and red zone threat. Still, I expect the Patriots to operate mostly with three pure wide receivers as their ‘base’ offense, as opposed to a Gesicki-Hunter Henry, “11.5” personnel group as a snap-hogging unit. I don’t think the Henry-Smith disappointment has necessarily given the Patriots extreme pause on high usage of Gesicki and Henry on the field at the same time at a high rate, but they know this is not a dynamic, Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez duo, or a “twin towers” Y-TE tag team that they briefly fielded with Gronk and Martellus Bennett. Gesicki is not an in-line blocker, and even Henry is not the best blocking tight end. Gesicki’s intial presence could come the way of red zone snaps with Henry, where he can open things up for a struggling red zone offense, as well as spelling Henry on some third-and-long snaps as a field stretcher on clear passing downs.

🏈 Elsewhere in the receiving core, New England added former Chiefs Super Bowl hero JuJu Smith-Schuster in place of Jakobi Meyers, and picked up two receivers in the 6th round that both made the 53-man roster in Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas. Losing Meyers hurts. The former NC State QB-turned-WR did everything right, and has developed into one of the league’s better route runners as well as sure-handed possession guys. But in New England, the high-volume Z/slot role needs to be an explosive, yards-aftert-catch option, and despite some impressive jump balls and top-of-route moves at 6-2, 200 pounds, Meyers has been one of the worst YAC players in football, with his YAC EPA over expected per catch since 2021 (-0.26) registering dead last in the league. In Smith-Schuster, New England now has last season’s fourth-best YAC per reception (min 50 REC) receiver from last year, with his 6.4 YAC per REC number below just Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown. Smith-Schuster had roughly a 60-40 boundary-slot snap split with KC last year, thriving on perimeter sit routes and Malcolm Mitchell Super Bowl 51-esque comeback patterns, as well as RPO slants and deep crossers both off-the-line in bunch/stack looks and on-the-line from the slot and peremiter. I expect JuJu to play much more in the slot than boundary in New England, where O-Brien will look to utilize him underneath as a bully-ball YAC weapon at 6-1, 215 lbs. New England’s ‘X-WR’ option is again DeVante Parker. Parker (6-3, 215 pounds) generates almost no separation but makes up for it by being one of the best jump-ball/contested catch players in football. Of players with at least 34 receptions last season, or deemed as “starters,” Parker finished first in average depth of target (15.9 aDOT), just ahead of fellow X-receivers like Gabriel Davis, D.J. Chark and George Pickens.

🏈 Parker and Smith-Schuster are capable, but the Patriots need receivers who can separate. Tyquan Thornton is beginning the season on IR (can return after 4 games), and with New England’s sketchy draft history at the position, it’s worth wondering if Thornton may only be a WR 4/5 option as a designed deep-shot target a la 2003 2nd-round pick WR Bethel Johnson. The rookies show some promise, with Boutte providing some gritty YAC ability and inside-outside versatility, but he’s not yet a starting option. Demario Douglas is much closer as a “jitterbug” slot option the Patriots usually covet. Douglas packed on muscle over the summer to get to 5-8, 192 pounds. He has speed and quickness. His route tree and movement skills resemble sort of cross between some early-mid 2000s Deion Branch and Julian Edelman. Although, I don’t think Douglas can get to the third level like Branch. He’s not a deep option. The Patriots have largely kept Douglas under wraps in the preseason. I’d temper expectations on Douglas being an immediate boost to the offense, but there is promise. New England’s X-factor in the WR core happens to be Kendrick Bourne. He was in the dog house last year, but put up a mighty efficient 2021 campaign. He’s the most versatile inside-outside option they have. Even dating back to his San Francisco days, he was a tough, clutch possession guy on 3rd-and-9’s or so for Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s become more dynamic in New England, thriving more after the catch, on deeper routes, and with creating more separation. It’s a concern that he may be their best separator, but Bourne is definitely a damn good receiver. He projects as the starting ‘Z’ receiver in 11 personnel with Parker (X) and Smith-Schuster (‘power’ slot).

🏈 The offensive line easily slots in as the most concerning on offense. This could be their achilles heel. But when healthy, New England should have four of their five spots figured out, which isn’t bad. Trent Brown is aging but still a solid left tackle. The same with David Andrews and his leadership/skills at center. At guard, Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu could vault into a Top-5 duo, but each enter Week 1 banged up. Onwenu is one of the best gap-scheme mauling blockers in the league. Last year’s push to outside zone running didn’t cater to his strengths. Strange, on the other hand, would slot in nicely to such a scheme, but he has the toughness and technique to thrive in power looks, as well as pass blocking. If neither can go, or if New England plans to move Onwenu back to right tackle, fifth-round rookie Atonio Mafi from UCLA would step in. Mafi (6-3, 330 pounds) is a power-running blocker in the mold of Onwenu. He could eventually be Onwenu’s replacement if the latter maxes out of New England in free agency this offseason. The big question mark up front is at right tackle, where Calvin Anderson projects as the starter Week 1, if he can go. If not, rookie converted-guard Sidy Sow likely slots in over recent trade options Tyrone Wheatley Jr. and Vederian Lowe. There’s a chance Anderson becomes another iteration of 2018 Trent Brown in New England as a mostly unproven player with promise. Stories like that were common with former offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. New offensive line coach Adrian Klemm, Belichick’s first ever draft pick as New England’s head coach, was brought in to fix things up front. He’ll be relied upon heavily in the early going to coach up whoever mans the right tackle spot.

*******

Week 1 Projected defense:

Interior/Nose Tackle — Davon Godchaux

Interior— Lawrence Guy

Interior/EDGE — Deatrich Wise Jr.

EDGE (stand-up) — Matt Judon

Off-ball LB/Thumper — Ja’Whaun Bentley

Safety/LB (box) — Jabrill Peppers

CB1 (boundary/cover marquee ‘X’ receivers) — Christian Gonzalez

CB2/Slot CB (field/cover ‘Z’ and marquee slot receivers) — Jonathan Jones

STAR/Nickel (man-covering TEs) — Jalen Mills

Safety (Roaming/Robber/Box) — Kyle Dugger

Safety (Deep) — Adrian Phillips

Situational positions:

Interior/Nickel + Dime — Christian Barmore

EDGE/Nickel + Dime pass rusher (passing downs) — Josh Uche

EDGE (stand-up and hand-in-dirt)/Interior — Keion White

Off-ball LB/Dime Back — Marte Mapu

CB3/Boundary CB — Jack Jones

CB4 (Boundary + Slot) — Marcus Jones

‘Big’ Slot CB (Man-covering TEs) — Shaun Wade

Safety (Quarter/Zone-coverage) – Myles Bryant

EDGE (early down, edge setting, depth/rotational) — Anfernee Jennings

Off-ball LB (depth/rotational) — Mack Wilson Sr.

3-4 interior (depth/rotational) — Sam Roberts

* * * * * * *

🏈 Per usual, expect the Patriots to be multiple on defense, stressing odd 3-4 looks or 3-3-5/2-4-5 fronts on first down, while also playing a ton of ‘Big’ Nickel and Dime with safeties. They’ll adjust for opponent, play man-heavy or zone-heavy from one game to the next, and should be a versatile, top-end unit. We’ll begin with a note on the Patriots safety group. And really, these hybrid defenders do everything from playing cornerback, off-ball linebacker, slot, EDGE, in man coverage, etc., that they are really just listed as safeties, and nothing more. “I think the Patriots defense is so good,” ESPN‘s Mina Kimes said on her podcast (The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny) this summer. “I compare them to the Niners {49ers} on offense in a way…where there’s like 4 or 5 safeties, I guess, or linebackers…they might be blitzing, they might be playing in the box, they might be playing in the post…Defenses always talk about how they want to be be multiple, but the Patriots are living it and building it in a way that is so modern, and allows them to dictate to offenses, rather than being reactive, and it’s so cool. They play the most Dime {personnel} of any team. Kyle Dugger may be my most favorite player in the NFL, to be honest.”

🏈 There’s been warranted talk about what Devin McCourty’s retirement does to this group. New England already veered to more two-high safety looks with D-Mac there last year, with their Cover-2 (14% to 16.8%) and Cover-4/Quarters usage (2.5% to 9%) increasing from 2021 to 2022. Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger project as the pre-snap two-high safeties. But it would be a waste for Dugger to not primarily play as a robber or roaming defender in the middle of the field and the box. He’s a playmaker. Phillips can handle early down free safety duties, and Myles Bryant should be able to step back in to the “Duron Harmon” role as a deep safety in Dime/Quarter looks on third-and-long after his two seasons struggling in man coverage on slot WRs on third down. Jalen Mills is another CB-turned-back-to-safety this season for New England, as he should see his fair set of snaps as a nickel/STAR defender in man coverage on third down versus athletic tight ends in the slot, and he can also play two-high safety. Jabrill Peppers is one of the more exciting players on this team. Belichick has praised him heavily this summer, and despite some two-high safety snaps in the preseason, I expect Peppers to play at the second level and near the line of scrimmage. He should be more linebacker than safety. He’ll man-cover running backs, play shallow zones, and you may see him play primarily in the slot, at linebacker or on the edge to defend the Eagles run game this Sunday in Week 1.

🏈 The pass off from Peppers to third-round rookie Marte Mapu is a great time to talk about the second level of New England’s defense. Peppers and Dugger should spend some time in the box as hybrid safety-linebackers, but in a perfect world Mapu will transition from safety/LB to full-time off-ball linebacker in New England. From playing next to thumper Ja’Whaun Bentley in 3-4/2-4-5 looks in early downs, to playing Dime Back/$backer in passing situations, the versatile, 6-3, 230-pound Mapu has the range, athleticism and linebacker instincts to thrive at the second level. Bentley is a team captain and enforcer who should help defend traditional power-running games like Las Vegas and Pittsburgh on the schedule, but for opponents such as Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and even Buffalo and Kansas City, Mapu would come in handy as a QB spy. Last year, Buffalo, Chicago and others took advantage of Belichick’s bulkier, Bentley-Jahlani Tavi looks up front. And Mack Wilson, who returns as a depth piece/special teamer, didn’t have the focus or instincts to help, either. Even versus Miami’s speed and outside zone offense, Mapu could be Belichick’s poor man version of Fred Warner as a new-age defender. New England just has to get faster at the second level. There will be games where an old-school 3-4 with Bentley/Tavai will work just fine, but in most contests, Mapu and Peppers would be better compliments to Bentley underneath.

🏈 At cornerback, regardless of where others line up, Christian Gonzalez was brought in to be the classic Belichick archetype man-coverage CB1 on the boundary. From Ty Law to Aqib Talib to Darrelle Revis to Stephon Gilmore, Gonzalez is next in line as a blue-chip prospect brought in to set the pecking order for a defense that loves to play man coverage. It’s unlikely Gonzalez catches on as quick as, say, Sauce Gardner. There will be some growing pains. But the expectation should be that Gonzalez is much more comfortable in the Patriots zone-coverage looks near the end of the the season as opposed to September. Even with more two-high looks, the Patriots want to sit near the top of the league in Cover-1 (26% in 2022) and Cover-3 (37% in ’22). Gonzalez is a perfect, lengthy (6-2, 205) cover-man with speed (4.38 40-yard dash) and fluidity to play press-man and Cover-3. Jonathan Jones is the team’s best returning cornerback. He’s better in the slot than on the outside but he improved on the perimeter as the season went on. Jon Jones projects to cover marquee ‘Z’ and slot receivers while Gonzalez covers high-profile ‘X-receivers.’ For instance, expect Gonzalez on A.J. Brown and Jones on DeVonta Smith in Week 1 on third-down man coverage looks. Still Gonzalez, is quick enough to guard Z-receivers. Versus Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Miami, there will be a hefty usage of zone coverage, but Gonzalez can keep up with someone like Waddle in man with some robber help. In a perfect world, Jack Jones gets back on the field to guard WR3’s on the boundary opposite Gonzalez, allowing Jon Jones to play in the slot. Jack Jones is an above-average aggressive defender on the outside, particularly in zone coverage. There’s some boom or bust there, a la Trevon Diggs/Marcus Peters, but he’s solid boundary option. The idea for the CBs is to play step-for-step man coverage with inside or outside leverage, where they can funnel receivers to the sideline/perimeter, or into the likes of Kyle Dugger as a robber cutting off crossing routes in the middle of the field. Down the depth chart, Marcus Jones has the body type and speed/quickness of a slot defender but seems like a boundary depth option at this point. And Shaun Wade projects as Jalen Mills’ back-up covering tight ends on third down and returning to the slot as a hybrid CB/safety option as opposed to perimeter CB.

🏈 At the line of scrimmage, the Patriots return a solid unit that finished tied for third in sacks (54) and helped produce 30 takeaways (t-2nd), including 19 interceptions (t-2nd). Matthew Judon remains the best player on the team as a solid pass rusher coming off a 15.5-sack season (28 sacks in 2 years). He also holds up well setting the edge in the run game on early downs in the team’s “Elephant” role. Josh Uche still likely fits in only on Nickel/Dime looks and passing downs, but even situationally, he’s an important factor. He had 11.5 sacks last year in a limited role. Opposite Judon at 3-4 OLB has been Jahlani Tavai or Anfernee Jennings, but in a more 3-3-5 base, team captain Deatrich Wise (7.5 sacks in 2022) has been the opposite EDGE as a hand-in-the-dirt option mixing his natural 4-3 DE attributes with learned 3-4 DE traits. The X-factor with this group up front is second-round pick Keion White. The North Carolina native/Georgia Tech grad is a built-by-Belichick-in-a-lab specimen at 6-5, 290 pounds with the ability play anywhere from 3-tech/defensive tackle on passing downs to stand-up EDGE in 3-4 looks and third-down passing situations. He also does everything in between, including 3-4 DE/5-tech, man-coverage on running backs, and more. If he can manage as a stand-up EDGE on early downs and as an inside rusher next to Christian Barmore on third down, that’s probably where he will fit best. I watched a bit of 2007 Patriots (Super Bowl 42…gulp) film this offseason, and Adalius Thomas spent some time as an off-ball linebacker guarding running backs and playing the pass at 270 pounds, but he really was an early-down 3-4 OLB and hand-in-the-dirt pass rusher at defensive end on passing downs. I see a lot of Adalius Thomas in White’s role. if Barmore can shake off a injury-riddled Year 2 to provide a pass-rush spark in the interior, an Uche-White-Barmore-Judon pass-rushing lineup could wreck absolute havoc on opposing quarterbacks. It’s also worth wondering if Barmore can begin two-gapping some on early downs. Right now, the Patriots will likely field Davon Godchaux at nose tackle and Lawrence Guy at 5-tech in the interior, meaning those two take the snaps on 2-4-5 looks, with Wise coming in on 3-3-5 base that they veered toward in 2022. But in pure 3-4 snaps there’s a role for Barmore opposite Guy as a 5-tech, if he can stave off second-year man Sam Roberts. Barmore may also take snaps away from Guy in base looks. Elsewhere, New England is thin at pure nose tackle with Carl Davis gone. Daniel Eukuale returns as a situational interior pass rusher and the reunion with Trey Flowers could turn into something at midseason, although Flowers’ role crosses over some with Keion White’s.

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Projected record: 10-7 (AFC’s No. 7 seed)

Only 12 teams finished with a positive +/- point differential last year. The Patriots (+17) ranked 10th in the league in that metric despite a 8-9 record caused by a disastrous offense and a few heartbreaking losses. New England went 7-9 in 2020 with a severely undermanned squad that could have easily won just three or four games. There’s a higher floor with Belichick-coached teams. Now Belichick has added three rookie defenders with promise to a defensive unit that finished first last year in weighted DVOA. The Hoodie has also improved his coaching unit with key hires in O’Brien and Klemm. New England does face the toughest schedule in the league based off of Vegas oddsmakers’ projected opponent win totals, but in a division and conference that looks perhaps the best it’s ever been on paper, there’s bound to be a few disappointing teams. That shouldn’t be the Patriots, who should fare much better on offense. Even just plain average on offense would dramatically raise their win total. No one is going to pop off for them in fantasy football, but a mix of under-center/shotgun formations specializing in power-running, RPOs and a quick-passing game should be a modern enough approach to a classic Patriots offense. Bottom line — slam the over on Vegas’ 7.5 O/U win total. This team likely isn’t making a deep playoff run, but making the playoffs is achievable. I see them bowing out honorably in the Wild Card round, leaving fewer question marks heading into 2024. Something to build on.

Patrick Mahomes scramble vs. Eagles (Super Bowl 57)

Brent Schwartz’s Top 101 NFL Players of 2023

Posted on July 27, 2023August 13, 2024 by Brent Schwartz

We made it. NFL training camps have begun in earnest this week, and I’m happy to share with you all my most detailed, descriptive, digestible and highest quality Top Players list I’ve ever created.

It’s easy to get worked up over the ranking, which is a tough, but fun exercise. But I really want you all to look at this as a preseason almanac for the league’s best players and teams. In this exercise, I really dig into player roles and scouting reports, as well as team schemes and league trends. Most of the scouting is descriptive notes from myself, with some aggregation of league experts and analysts mixed in to give you the best preseason guide there is.

As you’ll notice, I decided to create this year’s list in bullet form. Each player blurb contains more quick-hitting notes that include key stats and efficiency metrics, along with scouting lingo and overall team talk.

Additionally, I’ve added another slot to make this list my Top 101 NFL players. It’s a tough exercise, so figured, why not? Let’s add another player as an extra piece of content.

In the past, I’ve highlighted a 70/30 rule in deciding my ranking that entailed: 70 percent of my decision to place a player on my list is based off that player’s last two or three seasons of play, and 30 percent is based off their potential in 2022. To make things simpler this time around, I’m basing this year’s ranking strictly off of where I think these players rank for Week 1 and onward this September.

I’m a NFL historian, analyst and fan at heart. But just like anyone else, I have my biases. But I tried to check myself on those when ranking the players. Whenever I felt my bias getting in the way because of player styles I tend to value more, I applied more research to the players involved and attempted to make a sound decision.

This is also the first list I’ve created not involving Tom Brady, the NFL’s all-time greatest player. Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are a reason I love the game so much. With my family being from New England/the northeast, I latched on via My dad as a Patriots fan in 1999 at age 8. So as far as the Patriots dynasty and the 21st century of football, I’ve seen it all. Growing up, I studied preseason magazines, almanacs, broadcasts, player rosters/depth charts, played Madden/ESPN NFL 2K5, played football, and did just about everything I could to become an expert in the game.

I forged a career in sports media (have worked for NFL dot com, Fox Sports, NBC Sports, 98.5 The Sports Hub, etc.), because of my love for the Patriots and the NFL in general. Now that I’m working full-time in a sports tech/start-up business role that is adjacent to sports media/publishing, I don’t quite have the time to write as often as I once did. But I took the time to create this. I hope you value my list as a project I put a lot of time and effort into.

Below you can find links to my prior five lists. And with that, let’s get to a few more notes/takeaways, and then onto the list, which is my best one yet. Thank you all ❤️ 🏈

Top 100 NFL Players of 2022

Top 100 NFL Players of 2021

Top 100 NFL Players of 2020

Top 100 NFL Players of 2019

Top 50 NFL Players of 2018

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— It’s extremely tough to leave some names not only off the list, but off the ‘next 25 mentioned’ section. Players such as Von Miller and Kyler Murray won’t be ready for Week 1, while former Top 100 players such as Khalil Mack, Devin White, A.J. Terrell or Chase Young have fallen out of contention due to age or decline. One of the toughest things to analyze is who gets in at the skill positions? I don’t deem Justin Fields or Tua Tagovailoa as worthy yet, and Deshaun Watson hasn’t had a good season in some time. At running back, it was tough leaving Aaron Jones without a mention, as it was for D.J. Moore, Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk at receiver. Heck, T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller at tight end may be my most glaring omissions. It’s a tough tough exercise.

— On top of the switch in format to bullets, you’ll notice a X, Z or Slot designation next to wide receivers. Many have multiple. This is to give you a clearer picture of what type of receiver you’re reading about. Here is the way I look at it:

X-receiver – Tall, fast, supreme athlete who plays primarily on the outside/boundary and on the line. He is usually a threat going vertical and beating press coverage. (Think: Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, D.K. Metcalf, etc.)

Z-receiver – A fast, shifty, versatile route-runner who can play on the perimeter or in the slot, and essentially moves around the formation. Plays on the line or off, and sometimes comes in pre-snap motion. Can be a deep threat or intermediate/underneath high-volume receiver. Comes in all shapes or sizes. (Think: Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Julian Edelman, etc.)

Slot receiver – This receiver used to resemble only a Wes Welker-type as an underneath option route-runner. In the past half-decade or so, this role has evolved as teams put many of their top players in the slot when matchup hunting on third down. But we’ll stick to the receivers who play many/most of their snaps in the slot here. They can be ‘Big’ slots, who win with physicality over the middle (Michael Thomas), speed slots who win on downfield or intermediate routes (CeeDee Lamb), or your classic high-volume slot who wins over the middle with a mix of possession catching, route-running and YAC ability (Amon-Ra St. Brown).

Gadget – Let’s also not forget about your ‘gadget’ type players who can do everything from playing in the Wildcat role, to catching screens, running reverses in pre-snap motion or even just playing plain running back to go along with their receiver duties. (Think: Deebo Samuel, Kadarius Toney, etc.)

– My two main takeaways as far as league trends go are the increase in talented running backs despite the devaluation of them in terms of contract negotiations and salary, and the increased importance of having an elite pass rusher in the interior. The top-level interior defenders are now getting paid like EDGE defenders, as team’s are relying on inside pressure to disrupt some of the game’s top quarterbacks. Additionally, the Vic Fangio trend of two-high safety looks is leaving defenses lighter in the box, meaning teams need to have stout run defenders at defensive tackle and nose that can occupy two gaps, or a “gap and a half.”

— I don’t think it’s much of a surprise that the Eagles and 49ers lead this list with the most players. Each team is absolutely loaded. The Cowboys, Seahawks and Lions are the next best rosters to me in the NFC. Had I extended this list to 200 players, you would have seen those three clubs get many more players on this list. In the AFC, the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are building out their team with sound drafting and careful cap-maneuvering decisions surrounding bigger contracts like Patrick Mahomes’. They’re turning into a much more complete team than people think. The AFC is stacked as a conference. Maybe more than any conference I’ve ever seen. But the Bengals, Dolphins and Jets make sense as star-heavy clubs and fleshed out rosters (maybe not the Jets) that can challenge with talent alone. Elsewhere, I expect the Ravens and Jaguars to challenge for division titles and perhaps stand out amongst the crowd come January.

— Here are the teams with the most players on my list:

Philadelphia Eagles (8)

San Francisco 49ers (7)

Kansas City Chiefs (5)

Cincinnati Bengals (5)

Miami Dolphins (5)

New York Jets (5)

Dallas Cowboys (5)

Los Angeles Chargers (4)

Las Vegas Raiders (4)

Baltimore Ravens (4)

Cleveland Browns (4)

— Here are the number of players selected for each position:

Quarterback (9)

Running Back (9)

Wide Receiver (17)

Tight End (4)

Tackle (10)

Guard (7)

Center (2)

Defensive Interior (11)

EDGE (13)

Linebacker (5)

Cornerback (8)

Safety (6)

(NOTE: Micah Parsons was registered as an EDGE after being labeled a LB in my list last year.)

— Here were the 25 players that nearly made my list, but were squeezed out in the evaluation process:

Rashan Gary, EDGE, Green Bay Packers

DeAndre Hopkins, WR (X/Z), Tennessee Titans

Tyler Lockett, WR (Z/Slot), Seattle Seahawks

Brandon Aiyuk, WR (Z), San Francisco 49ers

DeMarcus Lawrence, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys

Mike Evans, WR (X), Tampa Bay Buccaneeers

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Travon Walker, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Marcus Williams, S, Baltimore Ravens

Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, New York Giants

Darius Slay, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Lavonte David, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, New York Jets

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Montez Sweat, EDGE, Washington Commanders

Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

David Bakhtiari, OT, Green Bay Packers

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Frank Ragnow, C, Detroit Lions

Ryan Ramczyk, OT, New Orleans Saints

Derrick Brown, DI, Carolina Panthers

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints

Kyle Dugger, S, New England Patriots

Kyle Hamilton, S/LB, Baltimore Ravens

Tyson Campbell, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars

And now, without further ado, the list…

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101.Amon-Ra St. Brown — WR (Slot/Z), Detroit Lions (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

A tough, route-running maven with inside-outside ability, but is best used in the slot on underneath routes and intermediate digs/crossers designed to maximize his YAC-ability.
He’s a little bit of Golden Tate crossed with Julian Edelman, with more of Edelman’s route tree.
Among WRs with 100+ targets, no one had more snaps facing a LB in coverage (26%) than St. Brown last year. The Lions virtually use as much 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) as any team in the league, but also love to run the ball. Stressing defenses with the illusion of running the ball to put St. Brown in an advantageous position in the passing game is one of the key concepts of the Lions offense.
With RB Jamaal Williams (18 rush TDs in 2022) gone, and deep threat WR Jamison Williams suspended for the first six games of the season, St. Brown — 196 receptions are the most of any player ever in their first two seasons — will be relied upon heavily again by Jared Goff.
Per Pro Football Focus, St. Brown ranked second among WRs in overall play (90.7 grade), third among his peers in receiving grade (90.4), and second in run blocking (77.1) in 2023. He’s a throwback style of receiver with new-age nuance as a middle-of-the-field operator. Similar draft prospects to his style, combine testing and tape/film might not fall to the 4th round again, like he did in 2021.

100.Talanoa Hufanga— S, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: NR)

Played a mix of snaps as a two-deep safety and rover in the box in Cover 3 looks for the 49ers in 2022.
Hard not to think of Troy Polamalu when he flies around the middle of the field making plays and delivering hits. He’s also extremely effective in blitzing situations from the slot.
A nice snapshot of what he brings to the table comes in his diverse and robust statline for 2022 — 66 tackles, nine passes defended, four interceptions, two forced fumbles, two sacks, a 57 %/31%/12% split as a free safety, box safety and slot defender.
His play tailed off as the 2022 season progressed, as his aggressive style was exposed in coverage too often in December and January, but similar to talented defensive playmakers like Buccaneers LB Devin White (just missed my list this year), you take the bad (inconsistent play) with the good (enforcer/playmaker/unique talent), and hope to build more consistency around him at other spots to offset.
Pairing him with Fred Warner in zone coverage is about as rangy as it gets when it comes to duos defending the pass in the middle of the field together in the NFL.

99.Tariq Woolen — CB, Seattle Seahawks (Last year: NR)

He demolished expectations last year as a rookie. The 2022 fifth-round pick tied for the league-lead in interceptions (6) and proved a perfect fit as a boundary CB in Seattle’s Cover 3-heavy system that also features other zone looks, such as Quarters (Cover 4).
At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, he was essentially made to play cornerback in Seattle.
Since Seattle is so zone-heavy, Woolen is rarely going to leave his post on the outside. Per PFF, he played 1,081 snaps last year on the boundary, and just seven in the slot.
Long, lean and physical, he was also fourth in the NFL in passes defended (16) and second in fumble recoveries (3).
The Seahawks drafted Devon Witherspoon with the fifth overall pick in the draft to start opposite Woolen at cornerback. Witherspoon is not Woolen’s size, but is lengthy enough (6-foot-1, 180 pounds), and should compliment nicely as Seattle quickly builds up their roster into competing with the depth and talent on other NFC contenders such as Philadelphia, Dallas and San Francisco.

98. Dalvin Cook – RB, New York Jets (Last year: 62)

He’s still one of the premier stretch zone RBs in the game due to his one-cut/cut-back ability, patience, and vision.
His perceived down year in 2022 still culminated in 1,173 rush yards (6th in NFL) and 10 total TDs on 4.4 yards per carry.
Many believe he’s a very good back that fits in only one scheme, but The 33rd Team’s Andy Benoit (former Los Angeles Rams assistant to Sean McVay/Special Projects) says Cook has possibly had some surprising inside-zone and gap run success: “82 percent of Cook’s runs in the last five years have come in under-center formations, most of which are zone runs,” said Benoit. “He is second in total attempts and yards under center behind only Henry. That said, on first- and second-down shotgun runs, which feature more inside designs and gap scheme (i.e., man-to-man blocking), Cook has actually averaged 5.3 yards per carry – significantly more than his under-center 4.6.”
“You don’t see guys of this talent available at this time of the year,” Patriots Director of Player Personnel Matt Groh said of Cook at training camp. “It’s a unique situation.”
(Edit: This piece was published before Dalvin Cook signed with the Jets.)

97.Rhamondre Stevenson — RB, New England Patriots (Last year: NR)

A bigger back (6-0, 230 lbs) with a rare combination of size, vision and “Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive and Dodge” ability.
In all seriousness, the Patriots gust-filled victory in Buffalo on Monday Night Football in 2021 was the first real evidence of Stevenson’s unique ability to pick up six-to-nine yards a pop even with 10 and 11-man boxes.
“Downhill power, light feet, explosive play ability, and pass game upside,” ESPN‘s Matt Bowen said of Stevenson, via Twitter.
He fared well last year as the Patriots bellcow running back, their first in a bit. He went past the 1,000-yard mark on five yards per carry and hauled in 69 catches.
He did seem a bit overworked down the stretch, so with James Robinson gone before training camp, the likes of Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, two 2021 draft picks, may duke it out for a role that steals a few carries away from him during the season. And Ty Montgomery may be in line for the team’s passing back role unless he moves full-time to slot receiver.
In all, Stevenson is now one of the best running backs in the league, and Bill O’Brien’s return as offensive coordinator bodes well for his ability as a lead back in what should be a power-running gap scheme with shotgun inside zone elements mixed in.
(Edit: This piece was published before the Patriots traded Pierre Strong and signed Ezekiel Elliott to serve as a complimentary early-down RB to Stevenson.)

96.Michael Onwenu — OG, New England Patriots (Last year: NR)

A massive interior presence at 6-foot-3 and 350 pounds, Ownenu is an old-school, mauling power-running guard that excels in gap-scheme run blocking. He’s also improved mightily as a pass blocker in each of his three seasons, which included some superb play (all things considered) at right tackle in his rookie year.
PFF has him grading out as the third-best guard in the league in 2021, and fourth-best last season. They also graded him in the top 10 in both pass blocking and run blocking last season among fellow guards.
He struggled some last summer in training camp/preseason and in September when the Patriots ham-handedly tried to incorporate more outside-zone running concepts to its offense under Matt Patricia. That’s not Onwenu’s style.
Under Bill O’Brien, New England should lean on under-center gap runs and shotgun inside zone runs with projected Top-10 back Rhamondre Stevenson. Onwenu should flourish.
Like Joe Thuney did in 2020, Michael Onwenu may price out of New England in 2024 free agency. And the Patriots already appear to be bracing themselves for that considering their drafting of three interior offensive lineman in Rounds 4 and 5 this April.

95.Dallas Goedert — TE, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR)

Goedert is the perfect Y-TE for the Eagles’ looks in both 12 personnel (1 TE, 2 RB, 2 WR) and 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB, 2 WR).
“Probably the most well-rounded of all the tight ends,” an AFC scout said of Goedert to ESPN. “He’s probably one of few guys who ranks highly in every phase — size, athleticism, speed and blocking make him rare.”
Although he excels in traditional tight end route concepts like post and seam routes, he’s also sneaky good in yards after catch mode on screens and quick pop passes (led all TEs w/ 7.8 YAC per reception in 2022), which blends nicely with Jalen Hurts looking his way on RPOs. And when Hurts does carry the rock on zone-read looks, Goedert is still a capable blocker.
He passes the eye test on the field, and analytics love him. He leads all pass catchers over the last two seasons in yards per target (10.6), and PFF graded him third among TEs in receiving and fourth in overall play in 2022 (also was graded second-best TE overall by PFF in 2021).
Goedert also led all tight ends in total receptions over expected, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. He ended up catching 80.9 percent of his 68 targets, and Philly QBs posted a 124.4 passer rating when throwing to him in ’23.
He’s missed 13 games in the past three seasons, so durability can be a factor. But when on the field, he’s a matchup dominator in the middle of the field with heavy attention being paid to receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who Goedert is spending time with this offseason to help refine his route-running.

94. Kolton Miller — OT, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: NR)

Miller, a former first-round pick, struggled out of the gate in his first three seasons, but he’s now found his footing as one of the league’s better blind side protectors at left tackle, with PFF grading him fifth and sixth over the past two seasons in overall play among his peers.
Standing at 6-foot-9, his length could unlock an extra level of potential improvement going forward.
He’s received heavy praise from NFL offensive line aficionado/film guru Brandon Thorn, who took time to cut up clips of Miller’s pristine ability to pick up and pass off opposing rushers.
With plenty of ’22 clips being shared on his improved pass blocking, it’s easy to forget that he can act as a mauler in gap running schemes, which makes him a solid fit for Josh McDaniels’ power running scheme, which features a blocking fullback in former New England Patriot Jakob Johnson, for more context. Miller led all offensive tackles in run block win rate (81.7%) last season.
In all, he’s improved mightily in both pass blocking and run blocking, with the latter being evident in Miller helping spring Josh Jacobs’ 1,653-yard rushing title campaign in ’22.

93. Antoine Winfield Jr. — S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 89)

He followed a fantastic Year 2 campaign in 2021 with a modest, but still good 2022 season amidst the Buccaneers’ struggles.
Last year he played much more in the nickel as a slot/box defender — sometimes in man coverage — than he did in ’21. According to PFF, his coverage efficiency dipped, but they graded him fourth among safeties in run defense, and first in pass rush as a blitzer (4 sacks in 2022).
Like most safeties in today’s game, he works best in two-high pre-snap structures that spin the dial post-snap. He can play the backend, patrol the middle as a robber, and play man (on TEs) or zone out of the slot.
The Athletic reports that Todd Bowles plans to revert Winfield back to more of a free safety in 2023, which is where he’s probably best suited. Entering his age-25 season, his best years should be ahead of him.

92.Travis Etienne Jr. — RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Last year: NR)

An elusive, explosive big-play threat who overcame a lost rookie campaign in 2021 that began with Urban Meyer trying him out at wide receiver, and a preseason foot injury that required season-ending surgery.
He was third among RBs in yards per carry (min. 100 ATT) in 2022, running for 5.1 yards a pop to produce a 1,125-yard rushing season (9th in NFL).
Had some troubles in goal line and short-yardage situations, but that becomes less important due to his big-play potential. This could be the Jaguars’ reasoning in drafting Auburn’s Tank Bigsby in Round 3 this year, or the signing of D’Ernest Johnson. Each could spell Etienne in those scenarios.
As the Jaguars offense further settles in to Doug Pederson’s scheme in Year 2, Etienne should benefit under the wily play caller’s two tight-end sets and witty play sequencing that will compliment Etienne’s zone and zone-read runs (under center and in shotgun) with play-action and RPO passing concepts for Trevor Lawrence.

91. Tee Higgins – WR (X), Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: NR)

An athletic, prototype X-receiver at 6-foot-4, 219 pounds who has posted back-to-back 74-catch, 1,000 yard-plus receiving seasons despite playing second fiddle behind an All-Pro talent at WR1 in Ja’Marr Chase.
He has traits you’d expect (jump-ball ability, wide catch radius, etc.), and some that may surprise you (quickness, YAC ability, developing route-running nuance).
Tyler Boyd has occupied the ‘big’ slot role for years, and Cincy has had fun moving Chase around the formation, as he’s an all-world talent who can play the X or Z-receiver role. This keeps Higgins predominantly on the boundary, where he played 83% of his snaps in 2022.
Chase’s presence often leaves Higgins on a 1-on-1 island with boundary CBs, which is a favorable matchup for him, Joe Burrow, and the Bengals offense.
He’s entering the final year of his contract, and barring a team-building and cap-maneuvering surprise in 2024, he’ll likely be playing elsewhere after this season, as he should demand more money than the Bengals can afford with Burrow and Chase’s contract extensions looming.

90. Shaquille Leonard – LB, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 30)

Leonard played in just three games last year due to his back, requiring him to have a second surgery on the area. At age 27, there’s good enough reason to believe that he’s in for a bounce-back season, even if the days of him being mentioned with Fred Warner are possibly over.
I expect him to remain one of the best rangy new-school LBs in coverage. He still should be able to go sideline-to-sideline in his first full season (hopefully) under Gus Bradley’s historically Cover-3-heavy zone scheme that values deep and intermediate middle-of-the-field pass coverage.
Before last season, he was a regular on the AP First-team All-Pro list, and was one of the best turnover-causing defenders in the league, at any defensive position. The first thing to monitor in September and October will be his level of aggressiveness, which is usually calculated and deadly.

89. Vita Vea – DI, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 53)

Nose tackle is not necessarily a dying position to me, as I believe a more athletic version of the old prototypes may start popping up for any Fangio-style, 3-4, two-high defense in need of at least one interior pass-rushing pocket pusher who can two-gap (or gap and a half) in run defense. There aren’t many elite versions of those yet, but Vita Vea is one.
Like the Bucs as a whole, Vea had a bit of a down season last year. But I’d expect him to deliver a better season in 2022.
Tampa Bay drafted University of Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey with pick No. 19 in this past draft. A combo of Vea (6-4, 347 lbs) and Kancey (6-1, 281 lbs) in the interior up front will look pretty funny. But each will essentially be serving two much different roles.
Vea is an underrated pass rusher who has a dominant bull rush that bulldozes interior offensive lineman into the quarterback. When he has the energy, his brute force as a power player is exciting to watch.

88.Jaelen Phillips — EDGE, Miami Dolphins (Last year: NR)

Phillips enters Year 3 with major breakout potential as a stand-up 3-4-style EDGE with insane bend/athleticism and inside rushing ability at 6-foot-5, 266 lbs.
A former first-round pick (No. 17 overall in 2021), few young players have his upside, and he now enters his first full season opposite fellow first-round pick Bradley Chubb rushing the passer on the opposite end.
ESPN‘s Mina Kimes said this of Phillips on her podcast (The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny) this summer: “I think Jaelen Phillips is on the edge of becoming a total superstar. Don’t be fooled by the sack numbers…he’s really fun to watch. He already has a complete set of moves. He’s super bendy…He’s so good rushing from the inside…I think his skill set is really complete…I wouldn’t be surprised this year if he finishes as one of the five best pass rushers in the NFL.”
Miami has hired Vic Fangio as its defensive coordinator this season. I’ll get into Fangio a bit more later in this list with some of Phillips’ defensive teammates, but essentially Miami will likely now play a lot less aggressive version of a 3-4 defense with less blitzing/man coverage/Cover 0/Cover 1, and lighter boxes. They’ll rely heavily on Phillips to get to the QB around the edge while playing two-high safety structures to limit big plays from opposing QBs.
PFF had him graded as their sixth-best EDGE defender overall, and fifth-best in pass rush last season. He should be even better in 2023.

87. Brian Burns— EDGE, Carolina Panthers (Last year: 96)

A young, talented player (age 25) who is coming off a stellar season (12.5 sacks). He should fully recover from offseason ankle surgery to help lead an underrated Carolina defense in ’23.
The Panthers are moving to a new 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and assistant Dom Capers (former Panthers head coach from ’95-’98). Burns should feast as a stand-up EDGE.
Burns has played in other 3-4-style defenses in his first few seasons, and seems to enjoy playing the 3-4 OLB-type EDGE, per his comments to Panthers dot com during Mini-camp: “Just being an outside linebacker, you see a lot more, and I feel like I’m able to use my IQ more than when my hand is in the dirt,” he said. “Because I can see formations, I can see backfield sets and what I’m getting.”
He’s playing on his fifth-year option this season, which leaves him as an extension candidate for a Panthers franchise that has some cap space.

86.Haason Reddick — EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR)

Reddick was named second-team All-Pro in 2022 after a season in which he notched 16 sacks (2nd in NFL) and 68 QB pressures in the regular season, before delivering a 3.5-sack postseason that included a dominant day versus San Francisco QBs in the NFC Championship Game.
He originally began his career as an off-ball inside linebacker in Arizona before moving to the edge full-time three seasons ago. And since 2020 he’s amassed 180 pressures, 40 sacks and 13 forced fumbles.
I like to call him the ‘energizer bunny’ pass rusher for Philly due to his great speed/quickness, bend, and strip-sack ability. He also harnesses more power than you’d anticipate from a 6-foot-1, 240-pound pass rusher.
Philadelphia has been at the forefront of the increasingly popular five-man front on the defensive line. The Eagles 3-3-5 looks essentially have become 5-1-5 formations with Reddick moving to the line of scrimmage. NFL Films legend and tape guru Greg Cosell broke down Reddick’s role on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast: “Think of all of these teams playing five-man fronts now…on one side, that linebacker is sort of the Sam ‘backer but also rushes the quarterback. Think of Hasson Reddick with the Eagles…when you watch the Eagles tape, you also know he dropped into coverage a bit since he’s essentially the Sam linebacker in that five-man front.”
Cosell’s comments on Reddick were brought up during a pre-draft podcast segment on Nolan Smith, an EDGE defender from Georgia whom Philadelphia eventually drafted in the first round (30th overall) weeks later. Cosell saw Reddick as a pro player comparison for Smith. Considering that, it’s possible the Eagles see Smith as an eventual replacement for Reddick in his current role in the Philly defense.

85. Stephon Gilmore – CB, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 80)

Now on his fourth different team and defensive scheme since 2021, Gilmore remains one of the best boundary cornerbacks in the game entering his age-33 season.
PFF graded him as the ninth-best cornerback in football, and sixth-best in coverage in 2022.
Gilmore was OK in zone coverage with Indianapolis in 2022. The Colts were expected to play heavy zone coverage (predicted Cover 3) last season, which made Gilmore an interesting preseason fit, but he ended up with more man and match coverage opportunities than expected, and that’s still his bread and butter.
He posted a PFF grade of 79.1 in single coverage last season. He may not follow around opposing team’s best receivers into the slot and across the formation anymore, but he will work well in press coverage on the outside.
In Dallas under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, Gilmore will work well as a press-man/Cover 3 CB opposite the more aggressive Trevon Diggs.

84. Josh Allen — EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

An overall force with his size (6-foot-5, 262 lbs) at EDGE who showed why he was the 7th overall pick in the 2019 draft this past season.
Last year Allen was graded third among EDGE defenders in run coverage by PFF, and was fourth in the NFL in QB pressures (64).
The Jaguars ranked second in league in pressures (209) and third in pressure rate (32.9%) last season, but were tied for 25th in sacks (35). Jacksonville OLB coach Bill Shuey thinks Allen’s (7 sacks in 2022) ability to turn pressures into sacks may take the Jags to another level in 2023: “He does understand that there’s a little bit of a gap to close right there between pressures and sacks,” Shuey told Fox Sports. “But the pressures are important. He does a good job there. He does a good job in the run game. He sets great edges in the run game. He plays with great effort. He’s all over the field. … At the end of the day, he’ll tell you and I’ll tell you the same thing: We have to get more sack production.”
Allen, along with 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker, should help the Jaguars take a major leap defensively in 2023.

83.Matt Milano — LB, Buffalo Bills (Last year: NR)

One of the league’s most underrated players. He’s a new-age linebacker with quickness and range to defend the middle of the field in pass defense and blitz the QB, that also has some old-school toughness to help out in defending the run.
Last season Milano was a First-team All-Pro off-ball backer. He notched five sacks, three interceptions and didn’t allow a TD in 81 pass coverage targets. Additionally, PFF graded him as the fourth-best linebacker in coverage, and third-best in pass rushing.
The Boston College product reminds me a bit of Chargers linebacker Eric Kendricks, who is about the same size as Milano (6-0, 223 lbs), and was the premier pass coverage LB for years in Minnesota.
There’s also mini-shades of Luke Keuchly, which makes sense since Milano is essentially filling that role for current Bills head coach and former Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. The Bills play a base Nickel defense in a 4-2-5 look (4-3 principles), with two linebackers on the field.
There’s an increased importance in Milano’s health and ability this season with Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Finding Milano’s new partner in middle-of-the-field coverage is an important task over the summer and fall.

82. Christian Wilkins — DI, Miami Dolphins (Last year: NR)

The former first-round pick made a big jump in Year 4 as the Dolphins best defensive player. His 79 defensive stops and 20 run stuffs led all defensive tackles last season, and only Kansas City’s Chris Jones played more snaps as an interior defender. He’s both durable and menacing as an interior wrecker.
Wilkins’ ability in the interior opened up things for the young, up-and-coming Jaelen Phillips (who is also on this list), and should continue to do so for fellow stand-up pass rusher Bradley Chubb as well.
Miami’s defense is now littered with talented former first-round picks, and with Vic Fangio now aboard to run the unit, there’s a ton of optimism in South Beach for an improved Dolphins defense.
Much how like Seattle’s Cover 3 look took the league by storm in the early-to-mid 2010s, Fangio’s 3-4, pre-snap two-high safety defense has been imitated or re-produced around the league in recent seasons, and Miami has the innovator himself in the building now.
Wilkins, who PFF graded as the fourth-best run-defender in the interior in 2022, is a perfect fit to both occupy space (and multiple gaps), and also pressure the QB up the middle for Fangio.

81. D.J. Reader – DI, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: NR)

A massive interior presence at nose tackle (6-foot-3, 335 lbs) that helped the Bengals complete a late 2021 defensive turnaround in their Super Bowl 56 run that carried into 2022.
His ability to command double-team blocks has opened up things for EDGE Trey Hendrickson and others. However, he’s not just a space eater.
Although he posted zero sacks in 2022, he notched 32 QB pressures, and PFF graded him as the fifth-best interior pass rusher in the league. He’s a pocket pusher who collapses the immediate line of sight for a non-mobile QB.
The Bengals’ ability to play defense the way they want all depends on Reader’s ability up to wreck havoc up front. He’s the key cog to their defensive front seven, and was the unit’s best player last year. The return of Cincy’s tough, nastiness starts with Reader. He sets the tone.

80. Roquan Smith — LB, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

A fierce linebacker with deft range in pass defense and punishing tackling ability.
Baltimore gave up a second-round pick and change for Smith and then inked him to a five-year, $100 million extension ($60 million in total guarantees) to make him the highest paid off-ball LB in the league.
I believe he’ll reach his potential in Baltimore, an organization near the top in talent evaluation and development on the defensive side of the ball. Even just after trading for Smith at midseason last year, the Ravens then gave up the second-fewest points (14.6) and third-fewest yards (288.8) in the league the rest of the way, and Smith finished the year with 169 total tackles (3rd in NFL).
The Ravens, like the Steelers and Patriots, have been one of the staple teams in 3-4 defense utilization in the 21st century.
The Ravens are more flexible in their scheme under newer defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Some 3-4 principles remain in place, but some 4-3 looks are now on the menu. Despite having more experience with 3-4 styles in the past, I think this benefits Smith in the long run, as he’s more of an athletic LB that could thrive in 4-3-style looks.

79. Josh Jacobs — RB, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: NR)

A tough, new-age no-nonsense runner who uses a blend of power, patience and acceleration to form a running style that also flavors a touch of Taz the Tasmanian Devil.
He led the league in rushing yards (1,653) and first downs (93) in 2022, earning him First-team All-Pro honors. He also added 12 rushing TDs and 53 receptions, and averaged an impressive 4.9 yards per carry on 340 carries (that’s tough to do).
He was much more patient and comfortable in Josh McDaniels’ power-rushing gap scheme last season than he’s ever looked in the pros. At times he reminded me of Le’Veon Bell. More so, Jacobs reminds me of a more explosive, super-charged version of what Damien Harris brought to the Patriots as a tough, classic workman’s running back.
Speaking of former Patriots, Jacobs owes thanks to fullback Jakob Johnson, who had a career year lead-blocking for Jacobs last season. Similarly, fellow Top 101 players member Kolton Miller helped an improved run-blocking offensive line pave the way for the league’s rushing champion.
Life as a NFL running back in this day and age is tough from a contract standpoint (see Dalvin Cook’s blurb above). Even after an All-Pro season, he’s still without a long-term contract, as the Raiders slapped the franchise tag on him, which has made him vocally upset. Could this be his last season in Vegas?
(Edit: This piece was published before the Raiders and Jacobs agreed to a re-worked deal for this season.)

78. Wyatt Teller — OG, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 64)

The two-time All-Pro is one of the best run blockers in all of football.
He’s a mauler with athleticism for his size (6-foot-4, 314 pounds).
Still finding ways to improve as a pass blocker, which is useful for the Browns play-action passing game revolving around their outside zone rushing scheme.
Him and Joel Bitonio make up the the best guard tandem in the league.
His 2022 season wasn’t as strong as the 2020 and 2021 campaigns that had him bursting onto the scene, but he should pick things back up in 2023.

77. Aidan Hutchinson – EDGE, Detroit Lions (Last year: NR)

He picked up the pace down the stretch to produce a fine rookie season. He led all rookies in sacks (9.5) and baited quarterbacks into three interceptions, J.J. Watt-style.
At 6-foot-7, 270 pounds, there definitely is a J.J. Watt-lite factor here with Hutchinson as an athletic, less beefy 4-3 DE version of what Watt brought to the table as a 3-4 DE/often interior presence. Both Hutchinson and Watt are uber-athletic and toolsy for defensive lineman.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has Hutchinson and the Lions’ defensive line playing a Fangio-like “gap and a half” technique up front. The Lions were 1-6 and allowing a league-worst 32.6 points per game last season before turning it around in the second half of the season, with perhaps Glenn’s defensive teaching and young talent gaining experience (such as Hutchinson) heavily factoring in. From Weeks 13-18, Hutchinson was PFF‘s third-highest graded EDGE defender.
Usually with EDGE prospects of Hutchinson’s caliber (No. 2 overall pick in 2022), they burst onto the scene in either Year 1 or 2 as a superstar, or else they’ll just be…really good. I think Hutchinson will reach superstar mode in a league already ripe with great young talent on the edge. And similar to Hutchinson’s evolution, the Lions’ talent-heavy roster may be in for a glow-up, as well. The hype is real in Detroit.

76. Kevin Byard – S, Tennessee Titans (Last year: 40)

Byard enters his age-30 season as one of the NFL’s best safeties in overall play and versatility.
He has the second-most interceptions (27) in the league since 2017, as well as one of the league’s best ball hawk rates (measure of how often a player disrupts a pass divided by targets as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats) over the span of his career.
He can play more than just as a free safety. He can also play man or zone coverage in the slot, or also go spin-the-dial as a defender who drops down into the box to deliver hits and terrorize QBs and pass catchers in the middle of the field post-snap.
With the center fielder/true free safety position going to the wayside in favor of more pre-snap two-high coverages to stop high-octane passing games, Byard’s ability to do it all is a near must-have.

75. Trey Hendrickson – EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: 68)

His sack numbers were a little down last year after back-to-back double-digit campaigns, but he led the league in pressure rate (16.8%) as he and the Bengals defense produced a stellar campaign that helped vault them to a second straight AFC title game in Kansas City.
He also notched 57 QB pressures (9th in NFL) and delivered a career-high PFF grade while playing as an on-the-line EDGE in the Bengals 4-3 and 4-2-5 fronts.
He’s one of the few high-priced free agents in recent seasons to catch on quickly and actually improve with his new club, as evident by his play the last two seasons after coming over from New Orleans. He’s a tough player who gives it his all. “Great motor and violence,” an NFC executive said of Hendrickson to ESPN. “Plays game the right way.”
The Bengals recently gave Hendrickson a one-year extension with a bit of a pay bump as a show of faith.

74. Matthew Judon — EDGE, New England Patriots (Last year: 99)

He’s the perfect old-but-new-age player for the Patriots ‘Elephant‘ role as a strong-side 3-4 OLB.
He can set the edge in the run game, and is even better as a pass rusher. He’s how the Patriots want their EDGE players to be.
“He’s been great for us…You know, we made him {Judon} our highest paid player” Belichick told The 33rd Team‘s Mike Tannenbaum with a smile in a recent interview. One connection I’ve noticed with Belichick’s team-building philosophy is that he’s much more inclined to spend big money on a defensive free agent from the Baltimore Ravens. Belichick and former Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome (currently VP of player personnel, still in BAL) go way back from the old Cleveland Browns days. The old Browns turned into the Ravens after Belichick’s firing and Newsome stayed on in Baltimore and built his teams with Bill Parcells principles (3-4 defense, stressed importance on special teams, etc.), much like Belichick did. The Patriots have taken many players from Baltimore over the years due to their shared philosophies and defensive systems. Two-gapping defensive lineman (not many other teams utilize these in this day and age, but NE and BAL do) Lawrence Guy came over in 2017 from Baltimore as a mid-tier signing. But Judon’s big deal reminded me of the Patriots mega-deal to 3-4 OLB Adalius Thomas in the 2007 offseason. Belichick doesn’t usually shell out big money deals in free agency, sans for a few, but he went back to Baltimore’s roster when he needed to acquire a talented player on the edge at a high price.
He had a great 2021 season, his first with the Patriots. But he slowed down the stretch. I was somewhat skeptical of how he’d perform for a full season going into 2022, but he put together a more complete campaign in Year 2 under the Hoodie. His 15.5 sacks last year (t-4th in NFL) brings his total to 28 takedowns in two seasons with the Pats.
He’s essentially the current face of the franchise in New England for a team that is struggling to find star playmakers post the greatest dynasty in NFL history for nearly 20 years.

73. Justin Simmons – S, Denver Broncos (Last year: 70)

Played in just 12 games last year, but still notched six interceptions (tied for NFL best) and was named second-team All-Pro for the third time in the last four seasons.
As mentioned a few times already in this list, versatility is in vogue for present-day safeties, and although Simmons plays most of his snaps as a deep safety, he still spends quite a bit of time in the box and in the slot.
Sean Payton has brought back Vance Joseph to Denver as the team’s defensive coordinator after Joseph served as Broncos head coach in 2017 and 2018. Simmons has played for Joseph before as the primary deep safety in his aggressive, 3-4, single-high safety defense. With much of the league turning to two-high looks, there’s a chance Simmons remains a pre-snap two-high safety after his last four years under Fangio disciples (Ed Donatell, Ejiro Evero). But still, expect Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks to factor in heavily, meaning Simmons would probably patrol the deep middle.

72. Deebo Samuel – WR (Gadget/RB), San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 31)

Fresh off a big-money contract extension, Samuel didn’t quite have the season we expected him to have last year in terms of fantasy football standards, but he’s still one of the best offensive weapons in the game, even with lesser volume.
‘Gadget’ in his title above is not meant to disparage. I may be better off just listing “football player.” With Christian McCaffrey now in the fold, he’s being used less as a running back, which is good news for his longevity. He’s still best used as a do-it-all player that both runs routes as an off-line receiver or comes in motion pre-snap.
Brandon Aiyuk is essentially the team’s top receiver as a Z-option with quickness and nuance as a route-runner, and Samuel, who is a better overall player at the moment, is a perfect compliment. He’s not essentially a route-running maven, but he manages.
“He’s the guy you game-plan against when you play San Fran. It’s not George Kittle, it’s Deebo,” an AFC executive said to ESPN. “He can take over the game with his big-play ability, his RAC {run after catch} and physicality.”
Samuel entered training camp looking trim/fit and ready to go for 2023. “I’d say this is probably the best shape that I’ve been in since the 2019 year,” Samuel said to the media at camp. “You know, you got that long time of working out, a long time of preparation. I took them 40 days away and really got to it and got to where I wanted to be.” “Never had a grown man send me so many pictures with his shirt off, but it looks good, and I can tell he’s put the work in,” 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said to the media at training camp.

71. Chris Olave – WR (Z), New Orleans Saints (Last year: NR)

Last year’s No. 11 overall pick had a fantastic rookie season (72 cathes, 1,042 rec yards, 4 TDs) as a smooth, downfield route-runner as the Saints’ Z-receiver who lines up more off-line on the outside than inside.
With so-so play (at best) at QB, Olave still ranked 6th in the league in yards per route run, just ahead of Davante Adams. Among rookie WRs since 2015, Olave’s yards per route run mark and PFF grade (82.9) have only been surpassed by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. With Derek Carr now in New Orleans, Olave will at least play with an accurate passer who has shown more league success.
“Smooth in the route tree and showcasing the vertical stretch ability to float past defenders,” ESPN analyst Matt Bowen said. “He’s impressed as a perimeter target early in his NFL career….His ability to separate opens up opportunities at the second level of the field, too.”
The Saints passing game over the last five or six seasons has been heavily reliant on Alvin Kamara running option routes out of the backfield, and Michael Thomas dominating the middle of the field as a box-out-and-catch specialist as a big slot receiver. The Saints haven’t had a downfield presence on Olave’s level since Brandin Cooks in 2016. Both Cooks and Olave have demon-like speed, although Cooks feels like more of a burner, and Olave is a far better route-runner and complete package who can win with quickness on more nuanced routes ran closer to the line of scrimmage. Kamara and Thomas’ best years are likely behind them, but Olave should open up things underneath.

70.Penei Sewell – OT, Detroit Lions (Last year: NR)

He had a lot of fanfare coming into the league in 2021 (No. 7 overall pick, DET), and after time spent at both left and right tackle in his rookie year, he settled into the right tackle spot full time in 2022 as a dominant run blocker. PFF graded him fourth among offensive tackles in run blocking, and he also had 321 run block win rates, which ranked near the very top.
He actually has fared a lot better at right tackle, but that’s not to say he might not move back over to the left spot at some point. That’s usually seen as the more marquee spot.
Former NFL scout Bucky Brooks gave his thoughts on Sewell in his ‘Scout’s Notebook’ piece over the summer on NFL dot com, listing him as a franchise cornerstone. “Sewell is an athletic people-mover with the balance and body control to dominate opponents on the edges,” Brooks said. “Whether paving the way for runners as a lead blocker on pin-and-pull plays or stalemating pass rushers on the edge, the third-year pro is a blue-chip player with the dominant skills and nasty temperament that coaches and scouts demand in a franchise tackle.”

69. Christian Darrisaw – OT, Minnesota Vikings (Last year: NR)

He was phenomenal in Year 2 last year. PFF graded him third among offensive tackles in run blocking (fifth among all O-lineman) and second among his peers overall. He also graded eighth among tackles in pass blocking.
“Supreme talent,” an AFC executive said of Darrisaw to ESPN. “Really natural athlete.
Like many young prospects, Darrisaw is still cleaning things up. Year 3 could be an All-Pro season for him. The former first-round pick should man the left tackle position in Minnesota for years to come.

68.Jaycee Horn – CB, Carolina Panthers (Last year: NR)

This is probably a bit higher than you anticipated for a young player who has missed 18 games in two seasons, but he’s showcased his play as a top-flight cornerback when on the field.
Considering he’s a 6-foot-1, 200-pound press-cover man out of South Carolina who went in the first round, there’s an easy Stephon Gilmore comparison there. But that’s not just low-hanging fruit. Gilmore is a solid comp for Horn.
Carolina has a good base of young talent on defense led by DT Derrick Brown, EDGE Brian Burns, and Horn. Ejiro Evero will now take over the group as the team’s defensive coordinator. “The Panthers are going to play fast,” said former NFL head coach Chuck Pagano, via The 33rd Team. “They’re going to be aggressive. They’ll be sound. There will be a lot more zone coverage than man coverage, but DC Ejiro Evero won’t be afraid to get after opposing teams when he has to.”
Pagano also states the Panthers will probably play a more aggressive style of 3-4 defense. Horn should still get his chances to play press-man on third-down passing situations, which is where he excels.

67.Garrett Wilson – WR (X), New York Jets (Last year: NR)

He found a way to produce as a rookie despite a ghastly QB situation, bringing in 83 catches and 1,143 receiving yards and earning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now, he’ll serve as Aaron Rodgers’ top target.
“Slender but has some of that Justin Jefferson ability to separate with quickness and ability to win at all levels, good hands,” an NFL coordinator said of Wilson to ESPN. “Has the skill set to be a complete receiver.”
I’ve always said Wilson moves like Spider-Man, and that’s a compliment. He’s absolutely filthy with some of his moves after the catch and he’s a contortionist making a play for the ball in the air. He’s one of my favorite players in the league.

66. Jonathan Allen – DI, Washington Commanders (Last year: 58)

Allen has blossomed into one of the league’s best interior pass rushers as a 4-3 DT who bullies interior offensive lineman back into the quarterback. He has 16.5 sacks over the past two seasons, an impressive mark for a defensive tackle.
Former No. 2 overall pick (and Defensive Rookie of the Year) Chase Young was expected to be the tone-setter up front for the Commanders at this point but injuries have set him back, leaving Allen as the team’s best defensive lineman up front among other former first round picks in EDGE Montez Sweat and nose tackle Daron Payne, who have both been productive.
Allen was double-teamed at the second-highest rate (67%) of any player at any position in the NFL last year. Opposing teams keying on Allen led actually led to career years for Payne and Sweat.

65.DeVonta Smith – WR (Z), Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

The former Heisman Trophy winner took a leap forward last season with 95 catches for 1,196 receiving yards as the Eagles route-running winner at the Z-receiver spot opposite A.J. Brown’s Monstars-level play at X.
“Excellent at the nuances of the position,” a national NFL scout said of Smith to ESPN. “Really good pure receiver. Needs to win at the line with technique due to his size, but he does that well.”
The Eagles run a RPO-heavy offense with designed vertical shots on play-actions that play off of that. The latter requires pristine route-running from Smith, which he provides. It also helps that Smith worked in an Alabama offense in college with Mac Jones that was also RPO-heavy with a bevy of deep routes attached where Smith could show off his gold-standard route-running chops.

64. Jordan Mailata – OT, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

He is one of the league’s best stories as an Australian rugby player who never played college football, and was discovered by the league’s International Pathway Program.
I’ll always remember Good Morning Football‘s Peter Schrager getting excited about Mailata in the lead-up to the 2018 NFL Draft (he went in 7th round to PHI), and then following along with his story throughout the preseason. Now, Mailata has developed into one of the NFL’s best offensive lineman, protecting the blind side for the defending NFC champions.
At 6-foot-8, 345 pounds he is a mountain of a man that is still asked to move with his size in the Eagles’ RPO-heavy offense. Still, it’s his power that comes in handy for the league’s best offensive line, which in turn springs the running game behind Hurts and the RBs. Because of that, watch out for newcomer running back Rashaad Penny (from SEA) in your fantasy drafts this year.
He and Lane Johnson make up the best offensive tackle tandem in the league right now.

63.Marlon Humphrey – CB, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: 50)

When healthy, he’s one of the best cover men in the league, particularly in Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks on the boundary. He’s also capable of manning up in the slot, even at 6-foot, 205 pounds.
I mentioned before that Baltimore has long been a 3-4 defense. They’ve also spent the last two decades or so specializing in single-high coverage (it was easy with Ed Reed), man-to-man defense and blitzes in Cover 0 and Cover 1 looks. Under new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, Baltimore is shifting more to two-high safety looks and three safety personnel packages. The changes there, and an increase in zone coverage looks such as Cover 3 would help alleviate some stress on Humphrey.
If Marcus Williams can stay healthy in the back end, and Kyle Hamilton continues to burgeon as young, middle-of-the field menace, Baltimore is well equipped to return to glory in the defensive backfield behind Humphrey’s ability as a top-flight CB1.

62.Terry McLaurin – WR (X), Washington Commanders (Last year: 86)

Wide receiver is one of the most talent-crammed positions in all of football. There’s so many popular names that it’s easy to forget about a guy like McLaurin, who has played with mostly subpar QB play. I have some faith that Washington will find some stability in QB Sam Howell, which should help McLaurin’s production, but that said, he still posted career-highs in receiving yards (1,191) and yards per reception (15.5) in 2022.
He’s a natural talent at receiver, utilizing his speed, quickness and elite hands to generate separation, and if not, come down with the football over a defender. Since 2021, he leads the league in contested catches (73), via PFF.
“His toughness is off the charts,” a national NFL scout said, via ESPN. “He’s grown into a better receiver every year, he wants the ball at the end of the game, and he makes contested catches with the best of them. Quality route runner.”
With McLaurin manning the X-receiver role, and former first-round pick Jahan Dotson at the Z, Washington is pretty set at the WR position going forward.

61. Derwin James – S, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 54)

After battling some injuries earlier in his career, James has now had two straight years of being relatively healthy, and in turn has been named an All-Pro (First-team in 2021; Second-team in ’22) in each of the past two seasons.
There aren’t many players more versatile than James, who is labeled as a safety, but wears many hats. Last year he spent 396 snaps in the box, 296 as a deep safety and 174 as a nickel/slot defender sometimes serving in man coverage. He also had the second-highest PFF pass rush grade as a safety. He ended the season with 115 total tackles, four sacks and two interceptions.
My blurb on James last year still rings true today: “He can function as a free safety, a strong safety, a psuedo-linebacker in the box (who covers and blitzes), or as a man-coverage defender in the slot. He can cover big receivers, fast receivers, shifty receivers, athletic tight ends or running backs in the passing game. He’s the epitome of the new-age type of safety that we’re beginning to see like Ravens 2022 first-round pick Kyle Hamilton.”

60. Dak Prescott – QB, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 35)

Despite team success, it was a bit of a struggle last season compared to his career year in 2021. The Cowboys have relied on their offensive line to spark the running game to in turn provide a base for the passing game throughout Prescott’s career. But outside of Zack Martin, the O-line has begun to break down in terms of durability and play. Since 2018, Prescott and Mahomes have the most 400-yard passing games (9) in the league, as Dallas has begun to lean a bit more on Prescott.
Tight end Dalton Schultz (now in HOU) and receiver Michael Gallup have been viable complimentary targets to CeeDee Lamb, but Prescott failed to have consistent success when throwing to anyone other than Lamb. He had a 93 QBR throwing Lamb’s way, but a 57 QBR throwing to everyone else. He also threw 15 interceptions in just 12 regular season games.
After serving as a consultant in Dallas last season, Brian Schottenheimer is now taking over for Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator. Expect Dallas to continue to rely on the run, while putting extra emphasis on vertical passing concepts in spread looks. The Brandin Cooks acquisition signals exactly that, as he’s a deep threat who can also clear things up underneath.
Dallas has a sneaky-good roster on both sides of the ball if they can stay healthy. Along with Seattle and Detroit, they are part of a trio of contending rosters that could be a legitimate threat to Philadelphia and San Francisco. And with the exception of Jalen Hurts in Philly, Prescott is a step above the quarterbacks of all of the other teams mentioned.

59. Bobby Wagner – LB, Seattle Seahawks (Last year: 61)

He sneakily had one of the better seasons of his illustrious career last year for a Rams team that had a discouraging year in almost every other facet. He was PFF‘s top-graded linebacker in overall play for the third time in his career (also first in run defense), and notched career-highs in sacks (6) and run stuffs (16.5). He also was named Second-team All-Pro after five straight seasons of making the first team.
Entering his age-33 season, he’s now back in Seattle leading the charge for a Seahawks team that has quickly been built up into one of the league’s deepest and talented rosters on both sides of the ball. He should fit right back in perfectly as a middle-of-the-field maniac in zone coverage. He’s certainly going to decline at some point, but his range is mostly still there.
He’s also become more physical as a run defender in his later years. He’s a Super Bowl champion and 6-time First-team All-Pro that should be headed for the Hall of Fame if he retired today, yet he stills plays with intensity. His do-right attitude and leadership will come in handy once again for a burgeoning Seattle club that has found it’s way post-Legion of Boom and Russell Wilson. It also doesn’t hurt that he looks cool as hell in the Seahawks’ fire throwback jerseys that are making a 2023 comeback.

58. Cameron Heyward – DI, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 49)

He’s coming off the best four-season stretch of his career heading into his age-34 season. He’s the third-oldest player on my list, but it seems as if he’s in his prime.
He’s always been a complete player as a pass rusher and run stuffer. He was PFF‘s sixth-highest graded interior defender in run coverage (and fifth in overall play), and he notched 10.5 sacks and a career-high 23 QB hits.
The Steelers have historically marched to the beat of their own drum over the past two decades when it comes to scheme variance (almost exclusively 3-4/2-4-5 defense with zone coverage tendencies) and free agency moves (very little lucrative deals for non-homegrown players, much like the Packers). To do that and have success, they must draft and cultivate a few franchise cornerstones. Heyward (first-round pick for PIT in 2011) has been one of those guys for Pittsburgh over the past 12 seasons.
I’ll say it ever year on this piece if I have to — Heyward reminds me of Richard Seymour as player who is versatile enough to dominate either as a 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT. But in Pittsburgh, he’s been the former as a stout 5-tech who continues to make the Steelers one of the toughest defenses to penetrate over the years.

57. Rashawn Slater – OT, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 57)

He was awesome in his rookie season in 2021, in which he was named a Second-team All-Pro. He tore his biceps in Week 3 last year and missed the rest of the season, but expect him to get right back on track in 2023.
The Northwestern product is one of the NFL’s best left tackles. He’ll likely man that spot for Justin Herbert for years to come. The Chargers suffered without him last season, as Herbert’s QBR dropped from 72 with Slater on the field to 58 without him.
“He’s not your typical tackle because of the lack of length, but he compensates because he’s a rare athlete,” an NFC exec said, via ESPN.

56. Jonathan Taylor– RB, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 27)

He missed six games last year due to an ankle injury, and his performance suffered partly due to declining play from a once-stout offensive line. Still, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry and when healthy is one of the league’s best running backs.
He looks and plays much bigger than his 5-foot-10, 224 pound frame. He can over power between the tackles on both gap and inside zone concepts, but made much of his success in 2021 breaking through arm tackles on outside zone runs under Frank Reich’s scheme.
Now, Taylor will adjust just slightly to a new offense under another ex-Eagles offensive coordinator in new head coach Shane Steichen. When rookie first-round pick Anthony Richardson eventually replaces Gardiner Minshew at QB, Steichen’s RPO/Zone-read principles out of shotgun/pistol looks should benefit Richardson as they did for Jalen Hurts in Philly. This is where Taylor will fit as a perfect compliment as a powerful lead back in an offense designed to punish defenses on the ground before going to deep shots in the passing game.
(Edit: This piece was published before news of Jonathan Taylor’s request of a trade. The Colts and Taylor seem primed for a messy split.)

55. Joey Bosa – EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 19)

At age 28, there’s still time for Bosa to hit his prime, but he’s missed 23 games in the last five years, including 12 regular season games last season due to a groin tear. Still, when on the field, he’s one of the most talented defensive players in the league.
The Chargers EDGE duo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa has not gone quite as planned these past two years. Brandon Staley’s Fangio-esque 3-4 defense was supposed to be a hotbed for the Bosa-Mack combo to take over games. But Mack is now 32 years old and declining, and Bosa can’t stay healthy.
But when on the field, his frame and athleticism at 6-foot-5, 280 pounds still make him a classic-style nightmare disruptor on the edge for opposing quarterbacks. If he can stay on the field, I’m optimistic that he’ll produce at an elite level.

54. Laremy Tunsil – OT, Houston Texans (Last year: NR)

He’s a premier pass blocker at left tackle, grading as PFF‘s best at the position in protecting the quarterback in 2022, which was his best season as a pro.
We are long ways away from the infamous “gas mask” video that caused him to fall out of the Top 10 in the 2016 NFL Draft. This offseason he became the highest-paid at his position with a three-year, $95 million extension.
He enters his age-29 season as the Texans’ best player, and a must-have in helping keep rookie No. 2 overall pick QB C.J. Stroud upright.

53. Quenton Nelson – OG, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 15)

After three straight First-team All-Pro seasons to begin his career, Nelson has declined some in the past two seasons. Last year he allowed more sacks than his previous four years combined, and he dropped to 24th among guards in PFF run block grade. Still, I am banking on him turning things around in 2023.
His career was on sort of a John Hannah, Hall-of-Fame-level trajectory at first. He signed a record-breaking deal for guards last September, and it was more than warranted.
He’s a bigger guard at 6-foot-5, 330 pounds. When he’s on his game, he’s a dominant blocker at the attack point, and is as smart as they come when it comes to play design.
The Colts are heading toward an Eagles-like RPO/zone-read offense under Shane Streichen and Anthony Richardson. The fresh start for the franchise should do well for the team’s best player, who can thrive as a tone-setter and leader at the line of scrimmage.

52.Jason Kelce – C, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

He was named First-team All-Pro for the fifth time in six seasons last year, and PFF graded him as the league’s second-best center, which was his seventh time being graded in the top three.
He remains as tough as ever, and provides leadership for a talented team with a bevy of younger talent coming in over the past few seasons. But he still produces on the field, posting a 95.5% pass block win rate and finishing second among centers in PFF pass block and run block grade in 2022.
He’ll turn 36 in November, so this could very well be his last season. He’s the oldest player on my list. 2022 second-round pick Cam Jurgens was slated to be his replacement at center, but Jurgens may start at right guard this season after Isaac Seumalo’s departure (free-agent signing for PIT). Kelce actually apologized to Jurgens last offseason after stating that he was coming back, which Jurgens laughed off. “I’m like, ‘Dude, you owe me nothing,’” Jurgens said of Kelce’s text before last season. “He’s done so much for me already. I’m pumped he’s back. You can’t have a better locker room guy, a team leader than that.”

51. Creed Humphrey — C, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 83)

He was named Second-team All-Pro in 2022 after leading all centers in overall PFF grade and run-blocking grade for the second-straight season. He also didn’t allow a sack all year, and led all centers in pass block win rate (98.1%). No disrespect to Jason Kelce, but Humphrey is the best center in the league heading into 2023.
“He’s really not beholden to any system — you could put him in any offense, and he would thrive,” a Pro Bowl offensive player said of Humphrey, via ESPN. “It was good to see that [in 2022] he had to handle more, saw less three-man fronts with Tyreek Hill gone, and he handled it great.”
The Chiefs have went from a high-flying deep-passing offense to a physical unit predicated on middle-of-the-field passing concepts, yards after catch, and running the football behind an improved offensive line. Humphrey’s physicality up front has helped set the tone.
“We want to be known as one of the most physically dominating lines in the league, and we have the guys who can do it,” Humphrey told the Chiefs’ in-house reporters last summer. “That’s our entire outlook. When teams play us, we want them to know that they’re playing a physical offensive line that finishes through the whistle. We’re excited to get to work on that.”

50. Chris Lindstrom – OG, Atlanta Falcons (Last year: NR)

He’s a mauler in the run game, taking the top old-school, punisher offensive guard label from Wyatt Teller last year as he was named Second-team All-Pro and led all offensive lineman (regardless of position) in both PFF overall grade (95.0) and run block grade (93.1).
The Boston College product is as tough as they come. He fits well in an Atlanta Falcons offense Arthur Smith is modeling after his last stop in Tennessee. Lindstrom needs to play in space for the wide-zone concepts, but otherwise this is a multi-tight end offense with rookie running back Bijon Robinson set to take the Derrick Henry role as a 300-plus carry back.
He became the highest paid guard in history this offseason with a five-year, $105 million extension. The 2019 first-round pick (No. 14 overall) has gotten better each season. He’s earned it.

49. Joe Thuney – OG, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 65)

I mentioned in Creed Humprhey’s blurb above that the Chiefs have become more physical on the offensive line. And although Thuney himself can be nasty, he mostly brings finesse to the unit as a technical savant with pass-blocking prowess at the right guard position. He’s the most valuable offensive lineman on the team.
Thuney is probably the best pass-blocking guard in the league. He led all guards in PFF pass block grade and pass block win rate (98.9%) for the second consecutive season.
Thuney is also among the most durable players in football. The three-time Super Bowl champ had yet to miss a game in six-plus seasons with New England and Kansas City before an ankle injury sidelined him late last year for two games.

48. Zack Martin – OG, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 25)

Martin, a six-time First-team All-Pro, is one of the best offensive lineman of the 21st century. Now at age 32, you may see a bit of a decline this season, but he’s still a top-tier player.
He has been the ring leader for a group who helped vault DeMarco Murray to success in 2014, Ezekiel Elliott from 2016-2018, and has helped to keep Cowboys in the thick of the best running teams in football today, with Tony Pollard likely taking the lead back mantle this season.
Even as a guard, he’s arguably been more valuable to Dallas’ offensive line success than Cowboys oft-injured left tackle Tyron Smith. Since entering the NFL in 2014, Dallas has a 0.07 EPA (expected points added) per play mark with Martin in the lineup, and a lowly 0.01 EPA per play without him.
For the reason above, Dallas would be wise to figure out a revised deal to placate Martin, who is unhappy with his contract
(Edit: This piece was published before Zack Martin and the Cowboys figured out a re-worked contract to give the All-Pro guard a raise in salary for 2023.)

47. Lane Johnson– OT, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR)

The third Eagles offensive lineman on this list, Johnson was superb last year in his age-32 season, earning First-team All-Pro honors for the second time and tying for the lead-league among offensive tackles in pass block win rate (95%).
“Premier player,” an AFC scout told ESPN. “Incredibly gifted athlete with force.”
He’s a freak manning the right tackle spot in the Eagles RPO-heavy offense. Philly moves quick on many of its plays but there’s also a bevy of deep-shot passing plays involved where Johnson is asked to hold up versus some of the league’s best edge rushers. Last year, only Laremy Tunsil had a better PFF pass-blocking grade among tackles. Johnson also hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 11 of 2020.

46.Saquon Barkley – RB, New York Giants (Last year: NR, ‘Next’ 25)

The ingenious of Brian Daboll helped bring Barkley back into the limelight as one of the league’s premier backs in 2022. He rushed for a career-high 1,312 rush yards and 10 TDs as the Giants’ focal point on offense, helping along Daniel Jones to a career year despite having a sub-adequate receiving core.
Daboll certainly brought a mix of flair (pre-snap motion, etc.) and toughness (trap schemes, etc.) to a Giants offense that greatly needed it, but it was Barkley’s grit, workhorse ability and talent that is the cornerstone of this offense. Without him (see next bullet), the G-men will struggle, despite the addition of tight end Darren Waller.
Barkley is another sad case of the devaluing of running backs. Along with Josh Jacobs and Dalvin Cook, he’s the most prominent present example. After a career year, the Giants — maybe smartly, due to cap space management — refused to meet Barkley’s standards for a long-term deal, initially trying to force him to play on the franchise tag before giving him a slightly better one-year incentive-laden deal. It was worth wondering if he’d sit out the season in holdout fashion a la Le’Veon Bell in 2018.
Few players in the NFL have the talent, athleticism and strength compared to his peers as Barkley does. Still at just 26 years old, he is one of the few running backs worth paying a ton of money to, at least on a “three years or less” type of deal.

45. Jaire Alexander – CB, Green Bay Packers (Last year: 48)

He’s one of the NFL’s best technicians as a modern-day cover man at CB. He’s at the top with Patrick Surtain II when it comes to crispness at the position. Pitted against Justin Jefferson in Week 17 last year, he allowed the star receiver to just one catch for 15 yards.
Additionally, Alexander quietly picked up another Second-team All-Pro nod and graded out fourth among CBs in coverage, via PFF. He also had five interceptions.
He spends most of his time on the outside, but could easily move inside and cover the best receivers in the game from the slot in man coverage, too.
“Ultra-competitor with great ball skills so good things usually happen when he’s on the field,” an NFL scout said to ESPN. “Has ideal man-to-man matchup traits.”

44. Jaylen Waddle — WR (Z), Miami Dolphins (Last year: 94)

After a high-volume rookie season (140 targets, 104 catches), Waddle was more of a big play threat in 2022 under Mike McDaniel’s Shanahan scheme. His receptions and targets were down but he improved to 12.2 yards per average depth of target and his receiving yards (1,015 to 1,356) and yards per reception (9.8 to 18.1) went way way up.
He actually was the league-leader in yards per reception as both a downfield and YAC threat. San Francisco and Miami execute schemed touches, deep shots and overall play designs so well. They know how to get their playmakers in space. And with Tyreek Hill taking attention away, Waddle was able to thrive on deep drags on play-action shots. He gained separation like it was no one’s business, which helped juice his YPC numbers with his yards after catch burst that saw him on the run from the catch point while barely breaking stride. Everything was explosive, everything was smooth. Having both Waddle and Hill on the same team in a Shanahan-style system is simply unfair.
As evident by his rookie season, he could thrive as a high-volume slot working option routes underneath. Or he could be a full-time gadget player utilizing pre-snap motion and screens/reverses as the majority of his touches. But he’s best used as he was last year, as an explosive threat.
“He’s not a small gimmick guy. He’s the real deal,” a senior NFL executive said of Waddle to ESPN. “I’d take him over most of the guys in the league. Pure speed but knows how to win at any level of the field.”

43. Andrew Thomas – OT, New York Giants (Last year: NR)

After two up-and-down seasons to begin his career after being drafted No. 4 overall, Thomas “Kool-Aid manned” onto the scene in 2022 as a Second-team All-Pro and grading as PFF‘s third-best tackle. He also was the league’s most valuable tackle, according to PFF WAR.
Brian Daboll came in and implemented a variety of new offensive concepts and re-activated Saquon Barkley as a top-tier offensive weapon. None of that would have worked without Thomas’ help on the blindside.
He’s now a franchise cornerstone, as the Giants wisely locked him up to a record contract (five-year, $117.5 million extension w/ $67 million guaranteed) after they picked up his fifth-year option in May.

42. D.K. Metcalf – WR (X), Seattle Seahawks (Last year: 67)

He had career highs in targets (141) and receptions (90) last year working with Geno Smith. As a 6-foot-4, 235-pound receiver who runs a 4.33 40-yard dash with a 40.5-inch vertical leap, he remains one of the most freakish athletes the league has ever seen.
He’s essentially a dream-scenario X-receiver and deep threat for any scout or GM. He’s a Greak God who doubles as one of the league’s most intimidating athletes.
He was knocked for his quickness/lateral agility and route-running coming out of the draft, which caused his absurd slide to the second round. I see almost no issue with those things when I watch him on Sundays.
“He has improved as a route runner — he doesn’t run the entire route tree, but the routes he does run he’s really good and can rip off a big play at any time,” a veteran NFL defensive coach told ESPN. “Really hard to tackle.”
After the selection of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of this past draft (No. 20 overall), the Seahawks may now push the Bengals for the league’s best WR trio with Smith-Njigba working the slot, Tyler Lockett running downfield routes as the Z, and Metcalf playing the X-receiver role. Additionally, Seattle has one of the league’s top overall rosters. Watch out for them.

41. Mark Andrews – TE, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: 51)

A season after leading all TEs in targets, receiving yards, touchdowns (t-1st) and PFF grade, he still put up fairly good numbers despite the extra attention from defenses and no help elsewhere from the Ravens’ middling wide receiver core.
The Ravens’ entire offense under Greg Roman revolved around Lamar Jackson designed runs and middle-of-the-field passing concepts to Andrews. Luckily, he’s the complete package at the position, grading as the fourth-best tight end in both receiving and run blocking via PFF last year. He also ranked first among TEs in run block win rate (86%) last year.
“Major matchup issue with his size, speed, athleticism and route-running ability,” an NFL scouting director said to ESPN. “Huge catch radius. A really easy guy to throw it to. Always the primary guy for the defense.”
Now, former Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken is taking over the Ravens’ offense a year after coaching the best tight end duo in years in college football in Brock Bowers (future 2024 first-round pick) and Darnell Washington (drafted by PIT in Round 3 this spring). Andrews could essentially serve as Monken’s new Bowers, and he and athletic pass-catching TE Isaiah Likely should find success together in multi-tight end sets that may include more spread looks and a more modern approach to NFL passing.

40. Christian McCaffrey – RB, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 79)

The league’s best dual-threat back was able to prove himself in a more competent offense in 2022 after Carolina dealt him at midseason. And despite entering his seventh year, McCaffrey is just 27 years old. This gives him a chance for a Marshawn Lynch-like brilliant second act with his second club.
McCaffrey in Shanahan’s scheme proved to be lethal, as he finished the season with 85 catches, 1,139 rush yards and 13 total TDs. He also graded out as PFF‘s best receiving back and second-best RB in overall play. San Francisco ranked 20th in points per game, 21st in offensive DVOA (Football Outsiders-created efficiency metric), 15th in Pass DVOA and 26th in rushing DVOA before McCaffrey’s arrival last year. Since C-Mac joined, San Francisco then was second in PPG (30.5), second in overall offensive DVOA, first in Pass DVOA and 6th in run DVOA.
“He’s {McCaffrey} one of the most versatile offensive players in the league,” an AFC executive told ESPN. “He can be used on perimeter runs, interior runs, out of the backfield, split out. He’s in tremendous shape and has size, strength and speed.
He was expected to flourish running Shanahan’s patented outside and inside zone run concepts, but he also finished the year with 138 snaps in the slot or out wide as a pure WR. He can run underneath option routes as well as most receivers.
Over the summer, Shanahan compared McCaffrey’s ability to beat his man with no help to Steph Curry’s ability to hit threes, and said Christian’s ability to force extra help on him opens things up for the rest of the offense. “The defense has got to help the guy guarding (McCaffrey),” Shanahan told The Athletic. “That’s where it gets cool. That’s what I love so much about Christian and having him for those nine games — I don’t care what leverage the linebackers play, Christian’s going to beat them, consistently. … And when you have someone who can do that consistently, they’re not going to allow that linebacker to play that leverage in a certain way without help on other leverage. It takes two…“If I put it in basketball terms, you’ve got guys like Steph Curry…when you put Steph somewhere, they’re not going to put one guy on him. Steph can create leverage and make that 3 forever. So you’re going to have to help somewhere, and that just spaces everything out. Christian really makes it easier to get the ball to {George} Kittle, to {Brandon} Aiyuk, to Deebo {Samuel}, to Jauan {Jennings}.

39. Derrick Henry – RB, Tennessee Titans (Last year: 26)

Common sense/history would suggest that Henry could rapidly decline this season, but the same could have been said coming into last year, in which he ultimately ran for 1,538 yards (2nd in NFL) and 13 TDs.
He’ll be 30 at the end of this season, and last year was the first time in the last four seasons that he didn’t lead the league in carries, instead finishing second (349). Yet, he continues to embrace contact, and often runs through it. According to ESPN, Henry ran for 888 yards after contact last season, which was the second-highest mark since they began tracking the metric in 2009 (Adrian Peterson, 1019 rush yds after contact – 2012).
I say it ever year on this list, but he truly feels like the closest we’ve seen to Jim Brown and Adrian Peterson on the field. I can’t predict a steep decline with him until I see it.
The Titans fired the bulk of their offensive staff after a poor campaign surrounding Henry in 2022, but they promoted from within with Tim Kelly moving up from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator in his second year with the team. Expect a fresh playbook with new terminology, formations and personnel tendencies, but the expectation is that the offense will still heavily revolve around the high usage of Henry. The Titans ranked fourth in the NFL in rush rate (51.6%), and that number could be similar this season.

38. George Kittle – TE, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 20)

He had a career-high 11 TDs and was named Second-team All-Pro last year. He also was PFF‘s second-highest graded TE (behind Travis Kelce) and caught 60 receptions on just 86 targets, which is an absurd success rate.
“He’s the most explosive athlete at the position,” an NFL personnel man told ESPN. “Probably the best at creating separation and yards after the catch.” Kittle happens to lead all TEs in yards after catch average (7.2) since coming into the league in 2017.
The Shanahan-style offense typically deemphasizes TEs in the passing game (see Mike Gesicki’s production in Miami last year when Mike McDaniel joined), but the 49ers have always kept Kittle involved as a YAC and break tackle machine as a pass catcher. Still, he was more of a focal point in 2018 and 2019. The abundance of talent by the way of Brandon Aiyuk (114 targets in 2022), Deebo Samuel (94) and Christian McCaffrey (65) certainly plays a factor, as does Kittle’s obvious presence as a monster playmaker now commanding more attention from defenses.
He helped make things easy on Brock Purdy in 2022 with Shanahan concepts such as designed bootleg passes that had Kittle dragging over the middle as an easy target.
The tight end position can really be split into different parts at this point. While Travis Kelce still excels as a chip-blocker and off-line presence as more of an H-Back on some Chiefs running concepts, Kittle (and Mark Andrews) still spends a lot of time blocking giant EDGE defenders like a traditional tight end would. And he does it extremely well. He deserves credit for that.

37. DeForest Buckner – DI, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 29)

Amidst a disastrous Colts season, he maintained his play among the top defensive tackles. At 6-foot-7 and 295 pounds, he’s one of the most intimidating defensive players in football.
Only Aaron Donald has been double-teamed more since 2017 (1,645 snaps). His presence up front has opened things up for fellow defensive tackle Grover Stewart in defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s 4-3/Cover 3/match-based defense. Former first-round pick Kwity Paye is also blossoming on the edge.
Still at just 29 years old, Bucknerd could have three or more seasons left of All-Pro-worthy play.

36. Nick Chubb – RB, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 44)

Strong and powerful runner who has excelled in an outside zone scheme you’d think is tailored to backs of a slightly different mold (think: Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey). There’s a chance he’d push for 2,000 yards in an old-school gap scheme such as Josh McDaniels’ system in Las Vegas, or in New England.
He ran for 1,525 yards and 12 TDs last season, and led the league in 20+ yard runs (13) and explosive rushing plays (23) while being named Second-team All-Pro.
Mentioned by Sharp Football Stats, Chubb is the lone player in league history to average at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of his first five seasons (min. 100 or more carries in each season). He has a 5.2 yards per carry average for his career.
He still bulldozes through defenders with his blend of power, quickness and vision in Kevin Stefanski’s multiple-tight end outside zone rushing scheme that features perhaps the league’s best offensive guard tandem. According to PFF, Chubb broke 83 tackles last season as the site’s third-highest graded RB (behind only Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey).

35. CeeDee Lamb — WR (Z/Slot), Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 43)

He improved mightily in Year 3, earning Second-team All-Pro honors and racking up 1,359 receiving yards and 9 TDs on 107 catches. PFF had him playing in the slot 53% of the time, meaning he was almost an even split as an inside-outside presence.
“A true combo WR,” an AFC official said to ESPN. “Has outstanding setup and movement that really bothers DBs. Has enough size to expose the smaller/lighter guy, really good run-after-the-catch, strong hands, has improved every year.”
As stated in Dak Prescott’s blurb, the Cowboys QB posted a 93 QBR when targeting Lamb, and a 57 QBR when going elsewhere. And that’s with Dallas force feeding him the football. His 156 targets ranked 4th in the league and were 67 more than the second-most targeted Cowboy. Even when defenders accounted for him, he made plays.
Dallas added speedy downfield threat Brandin Cooks to serve as WR2 this season to try to bolster a Dallas passing game that was lackluster everywhere but when targeting Lamb. That should open up Lamb’s ability to work underneath and in the middle of the field. He should be a key pickup for your fantasy leagues in 2023.

34. Dexter Lawrence – DI, New York Giants (Last year: NR)

He had a monster Year 4, being named an All-Pro (Second-team) for the first time, while notching 7.5 sacks as mostly a 3-4 nose tackle.
PFF graded him as the top run stopper and (!) pass rusher from the interior last season. He was an absolute force, which brought on his 4-year, $90 million extension with the Giants in May.
“Flat-out dominant run defender,” an NFC executive told ESPN. “He can create for himself or others. Can overwhelm. If your center isn’t a top-level guy, he will dominate him.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Lawrence amassed 47 QB pressures last year when lined up from a 0-tech or 1-technique alignment (nose tackle). The next closest was 18 (Vita Vea). That’s bonkers.
Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, Lawrence often plays as only one of two interior defensive lineman on the field at once. He’s asked dominate as both a two-gap destroying run defender and pass rusher. And he does just that, and should continue to. He’s a star now.

33. Minkah Fitzpatrick – S, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 88)

He was named First-team All-Pro for the third time in four seasons last year, and PFF graded him in the top 10 among safeties in both run defense and pass coverage, as well as third overall among his positional peers. He also tallied six interceptions (t-1st) and led the NFL with a 28.2% ball hawk rate.
“Best {safety} in the game, and it’s not close,” an NFL personnel director told ESPN. “Post, slot, nickel, box. He’s capable, willing and able to handle all of that. He’s brilliant, works, studies, loves the game.”
One of the best NFL podcasts out there is a newer series by USA Today SMG/Touchdown Wire‘s Doug Farrar and the aforementioned renowned NFL Films guru Greg Cosell (co-created and co-stars in NFL Matchup), titled The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell. Greg had this to say of Fitzpatrick in an episode over the summer: “Really good player because I think he can do anything…And I think he has done everything. He can certainly play in the backend and be a great post safety…We know he can play slot corner if he has to. He certainly can play down in the box. He’s physical, he’s competitive, he’s aggressive. To me, he’s a complete safety.”
The Steelers have famously spent most of the last few decades as predominantly a zone-heavy, 3-4 base defense, with little exception. But the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review charted their personnel tendencies last year, and found their game plans to be more opponent-specific. They have Pittsburgh using 16 starting defensive lineups over their 17 games. They say the Steelers used 447 combinations of lineups on the field among their 1,063 defensive snaps this past season. Sometimes, they used a three-safety look, where they asked their safeties to be a bit more versatile. Lucky for Pittsburgh, Minkah can play anywhere, as previously stated.
Still, Minkah is best in the back end as a Ed Reed-ish, ball-hawking deep safety with free rein to move around the field as he sees fit, following opposing QB’s eyes.

32. Joel Bitonio — OG, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 63)

One of the best offensive lineman in football. Excels in both pass and run blocking. He’s a more complete guard than fellow teammate Wyatt Teller on the opposite side. I think his consistency over the last half-decade makes him the top guard in the league right now.
He’s been named an All-Pro five years in a row, making the First-team these last two seasons. PFF graded him as the second best guard in 2022, one year after they marked him at the top spot. He also played in every single Browns offensive snap last year.
At 6-foot-4, 320 pounds, he’s also adept as a sideline-to-sideline blocker in space in the Browns’ outside zone-heavy rushing scheme led by RB Nick Chubb. Bitonio was always a skilled pass blocker, but he’s improved his run blocking. PFF graded him second among guards in run blocking last season and first in 2021.
“Bitonio stands alone at the top for me,” said an NFC executive, via ESPN. “The difference is he can play OG and match DL speed and quickness yet has an LT’s skill set and athleticism.”

31. Quinnen Williams – OT, New York Jets (Last year: NR)

He had a career season in Year 4, notching 12 sacks and being named First-team All-Pro. That brought on his four-year, $96 million extension ($56 million guaranteed) in July that topped Jeffrey Simmons’ deal to make Williams the second-highest paid defensive tackle in the league behind Aaron Donald.
Williams essentially serves as Robert Saleh’s next DeForest Buckner in the interior in the Jets’ four-man fronts and tendencies taken from Saleh’s time in San Francisco (where he coached Buckner). The defense is essentially a 4-3/4-2-5 scheme reliant on four-man pressures and fast linebackers in coverage in the front seven.
“As good as a defensive tackle that I’ve studied coming out of Bama {in 2019} — he was a young guy who needed time to mature,” an NFL scout told ESPN. “It took him a while, but now it’s clicking and he’s still ascending… He’s as good as any pass-rusher out there right now.”

30. Jalen Ramsey – CB, Miami Dolphins (Last year: 10)

People have suggested Ramsey’s play tailed off in 2022, and although there are other young CBs perhaps taking the mantle of the league’s best (Patrick Surtain II, Sauce Gardner), the former Jaguar and Rams star defender is still playing at an All-Pro level.
A year after grading as PFF‘s top CB overall, he graded third this year among CBs (behind Surtain, Gardner). He tied for the league-lead with 20 pass breakups, but it was his ability in the nickel/slot defending the run and blitzing that impressed the most. He led all CBs in PFF pass rush grade (91.3) and his run defense grade (91.8) led all league defenders.
He occupied the Rams’ “Star” position fairly often the last few seasons. But he had roughly a 76%/24% split between the perimeter and slot/box last season, according to PFF. He’ll play under Vic Fangio in Miami this season, and although many are predicting he’ll go back to spending virtually all of his time on the perimeter, Ramsey’s ability to defend the run and play zone coverage may make him useful in the slot. I expect him to split his time as a nickel defender and as a press coverage maven in Cover-4/Cover-3/2-man looks on the outside this season.
(Edit: This piece was published before Jalen Ramsey was injured during Dolphins training camp. He underwent a full meniscus repair, and is expected to be out until at least December, if not, the entire 2023 season.)

29.Jalen Hurts – QB, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: NR)

It was a career year for Hurts as he came close to winning both NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP if it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles are certainly loaded at offensive line, wide receiver, tight end and several areas defensively. That considering, I think it’s OK to be patient in seeing how he follows up 2022. But make no mistake, he is of the league’s best quarterbacks, falling squarely in Tier 2.
If you know his college backstory, you know how mentally tough and driven Hurts is as a person and football player. I respect the hell out of what he has accomplished, and have been one of his biggest fans. I also love his game. But this talent pool and system are hard to overlook when discussing him as an individual player in a rankings exercise after just one solid year.
The Andy Reid-Doug Pederson-Frank Reich tree branch has ruled the Eagles, Chiefs and Colts over the last 5-10 years. Nick Sirianni came over from Indianapolis after three years under Reich, who he also worked under with the Chargers. Now, Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Streichen has fled to Indy to take over for Reich there and mold the Colts’ offense around Anthony Richardson, much like Sirianni has done in Philly for Hurts. Really, Sirianni has kept the Eagles’ offense partly under the Reid-Pederson umbrella, but a bevy of wrinkles to some of the core late 2010s Eagles concepts have come in to play thanks to Hurts’ ability as a rusher.
The Eagles still rely heavily on RPOs, but there’s a zone-read element attached now with designed QB runs. Hurts’ 200 carries (including playoffs) was the highest single-season mark by a QB ever. So were his 18 rushing TDs (including playoffs). It’s worth wondering how long Hurts can fare with such a statline, but he’s much bulkier and big-boned than even his stocky 6-foot-1, 223-pound frame suggests. For now he’s fine. He also has thrived on deep shots that are designed to attack defenses vertically after hammering them with zone-reads, inside zone calls and other underneath passes to running backs and tight end Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles have the most players on my list with eight. Barring a catastrophe, they should be poking around in the NFC Divisional round or title game come January. The only real preseason drama to discuss is the loss of both coordinators, but Philly is more than ready to keep on rolling. Fresh off one of the biggest contract extensions in NFL history signed in April (five years, $255 million, $180 million guaranteed), this is a pretty big prove-it year for Hurts, as Roseman has designed a squad that will accept nothing less than a Super Bowl victory. It’d be wise to get behind Hurts, whose post-Super Bowl loss quote in February still sticks with me: “We came up short. I think the beautiful part about it is everyone experiences different pains, everyone experiences different agonies of life, but you decide if you want to learn from it. You decide if you want that to be a teachable moment. I know I do.”

28. A.J. Brown – WR (X), Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: 55)

Even for a roster as stacked as the Eagles, Brown was a transformative presence last year. He earned his first All-Pro nod (Second-team) and posted a career high in catches (88) and receiving yards (1,496; 4th in NFL) to go along with 11 receiving TDs (t-3rd). He also led the league in YPRR (yards per route run) by a wide margin.
“Exceptionally strong,” said a veteran NFL scout, via ESPN. “Great ball skills and feel for the game. Doesn’t have great speed to create deep separation but makes big plays through tight coverage.”
My personal scouting report for Brown is this: A rare 6-foot-1, 226 pound receiver with both Mack-Truck/explosive yards after catch ability and blazing downfield speed. Can win on jump balls and on schemed touches you’d see designed for a smaller receiver such as WR screens. Operated as a “Big” slot often in Tennessee but is playing mostly as a boundary X-receiver in Philly.

27.Trevor Lawrence — QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Last year: NR)

He stood no chance as a rookie in what was a dumpster fire 2021 Jaguars season. Last year, Doug Pederson came in and quickly fixed things, getting Lawrence back on the fast track to stardom as one of the most touted draft prospects in league history.
Lawrence thrived in a mixture of under-center 12 personnel looks and shotgun spread formations that often featured RPO concepts. Lawrence drastically cut down on turnovers in Year 2, and was superb down the stretch, helping Jacksonville to eight wins in their final 11 games, including the fantastic 27-point comeback win in the Wild Card round over the Chargers. From Week 9 onward, he was second in TD/INT ratio and completion percentage, and third in PFF grade for QBs behind just Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
If you can remember Nick Foles’ success in 2017 and 2018 under Pederson’s scheme, it’s easy to get excited about Lawrence heading into Year 3 when you see how Pederson is building his squad. Evan Engram has been extended as sort of a psuedo-WR/TE like Zach Ertz was. Christian Kirk surprised many as a threat to defenses. Travis Etienne Jr. burst onto the scene and is now a top-10 back. And now Jacksonville has added Calvin Ridley as a X-receiver option and drafted offensive tackle Anton Harrison in the first round, along with tight end Brenton Strange and running back Tank Bigsby in Rounds 2 and 3.
Lawrence’s tape showed the ability to do just about anything. He has a strong arm, an accurate arm, improving ball placement and an unorthodox, but very quick release. He can throw off-platform well, he can scramble and also run designed QB run concepts at 6-foot-6, 213 pounds.
I’m bullish on Lawrence as a quarterback that could pass Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and others to become Mahomes’ top nemesis as soon as this season. The Jaguars may win the next four or five AFC South titles in a row when looking at the division. They’re adding talent and already have a few blue-chip players on defense thanks to picking at the top of the draft year after year. They also have a phenomenal coach. Jacksonville has arrived, and so has their superstar quarterback.

26. Jeffery Simmons — DI, Tennessee Titans (Last year: 37)

One of the up-and-coming superstars that you may not know too much about.
He’s been named second-team All-Pro in each of the last two seasons, which led to Tennessee handing him a four-year, $94 million extension in April.
Was on a tear before a midseason ankle injury slowed him down some. Still finished with 53 pressures and 7.5 sacks from the interior.
The Titans use some multiple fronts, and Simmons’ ability as a 3-tech, 5-tech, and even nose tackle, make him vital as a top talent in Mike Vrabel’s nail-eating, tough defensive front seven.
As the Tennessee enters what could be a rough season for them, Simmons’ potential to take the torch from veterans Aaron Donald and Chris Jones as the best interior defender in the league is their most exciting 2023 storyline sans a Will Levis breakout.

25. Aaron Rodgers – QB, New York Jets (Last year: 3)

He had a rough go last year as the Packers went 8-9 and missed the playoffs for just the third time in 15 seasons. Rodgers also dropped to 14th in PFF grade and 26th in Total QBR with a lowly 39.3 mark. Still, there’s a sense of optimism as Rodgers joins the Big Apple with several friends, including Nathaniel Hackett, his former offensive coordinator in Green Bay that will serve the same role with New York.
If you remember, Rodgers initially struggled some in Year 1 under Matt LaFluer’s Shanahan-esque system before Hackett came in to serve as OC. Rodgers then went on a three-year run that included two league MVP awards and three NFC No. 1 seeds for the Packers. With the Jets, it’s expected that Rodgers will run a similar offense that features plenty under-center, wide-zone running concepts with play-action and boot designs that play off of those runs.
You can also expect some multi-tight end looks and some spread shotgun stuff that Rodgers likes. If healthy, Breece Hall serves the outside zone RB role well while old friend Alan Lazard (WR2/possession pass-catcher/blocking traits) and Mecole Hardman (pre-snap motion/gadget type) should fit in in nicely to the new offense.
A lot will ride on Rodgers’ ability to mesh with WR1 Garrett Wilson, who is a burgeoning superstar at the position, as well as the health/ability of the offensive line, which looks like a weakness that could possibly sink them in a tough AFC East and AFC conference as a whole.
Rodgers also recently signed a new two-year deal with the Jets that was essentially a pay cut that helped clear some cap space for the team to make a real run at the Super Bowl this season and next. “I’m having a blast,” Rodgers said recently at Jets training camp. “I don’t see this as a one year and done thing.”

24. Stefon Diggs – WR (Z), Buffalo Bills (Last year: 28)

He’s one of the league’s best route runners and most well-rounded WRs. He was named Second-team All-Pro last year, finishing fourth in catches (108), fifth in receiving yards (1,529) and targets (154) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (11).
“Diggs is a receiver’s receiver,” an NFC executive said of Diggs, via ESPN. “I have a soft spot for receivers who can win on craftiness and instincts and quickness and timing. He’s very much like Justin Jefferson in that way. Consistency catching the ball and making plays.”
Since his move to Buffalo in 2020, only Davante Adams has more targets than Diggs (469). He’s the team’s most valuable piece after quarterback Josh Allen. He makes the passing game go.
He was an outside receiver 78% of the time in 2021. I predicted he’d be in the slot more in last year’s list. His outside percentage dropped to 69%, as he spent 296 of his 957 offensive snaps in the slot. So a slight uptick being used in the inside. But the Bills drafted rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid in the back of the first round this spring to play as sort of a “Big” slot receiver, so you could see Diggs move back to the outside at a higher clip.
He uses perceived slights as fuel but his emotions have gotten the best of him since the end of last season, as exhibited by some of his odd behavior. But he’s put any drama to rest in training camp, and seems to be ready to work.
Because it pertains some to Diggs, it’s also worth wondering if Buffalo will have a decrease in shotgun-spread, five-wide Air Raid concepts this year, as Josh Allen has talked about playing the game differently, and not scrambling/rushing for yardage as much as he has in the past.

23.Cooper Kupp – WR (Z/Slot), Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 13)

He had one of the greatest WR seasons of all-time in 2021, leading the league in just about every stat or efficiency metric imaginable on the route to earning Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP. Last season he was keeping the pace with 75 catches through nine games before an ankle injury did him in for the rest of the Rams’ lost season. An AFC executive said of him to ESPN: “If I’m picking one receiver for one game, I might pick him. He’s going to win the game for you.”
Some may have the notion that Kupp can only produce from the slot, but he can play the Z-receiver or X-receiver role just as well. In fact, he’s more of an inside-outside hybrid. PFF had his boundary-slot split at roughly 49%-51%.
At 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, he’s more physical than most think, deploying the ability to beat press through his build. But that’s not needed, as his quickness and nuance at the position is matched only by Davante Adams. WR guru Matt Harmon, who runs Reception Perception, continues to rave about Kupp, which is a good sign.
“You can teach tape on him attacking leverage, stemming guys, great quickness, precise route runner,” an NFC scout said to ESPN. “Also does the blocking and dirty work. He’s a bit like Hines Ward, in his value is in doing all the little things really well.”
He’s able to work on an island versus any type of defender, in any type of alignment, and take them to school. He can get open on McVay’s designed play-action and bootleg concepts, or in shotgun spread looks on clear passing downs.

22. Tristan Wirfs – OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 47)

Entering his fourth season, he’s become one of the great pass protectors in the game. Now, he’ll move from right tackle to left in 2023.
After being named First-team All-Pro in 2021, he was named Second-team All-Pro last season and graded out as PFF‘s fourth-best offensive tackle in pass blocking. He also has allowed the lowest pressure rate blocking for Tom Brady (who does get the ball out quick) since coming into the league in 2020.
His superior athleticism was on display before he was even drafted, as there is a video of him box jumping completely out of a swimming pool at 6-foot-5, 320 pounds.

21. Travis Kelce – TE, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 32)

Still going strong at age 33 (will be 34 in October). He had arguably his best season as a pro last year, leading all TEs in targets (152), catches (110), receiving yards (1,338), touchdowns (12), yards after catch (648), and PFF grade (91.3). He also led all tight ends in Total EPA (expected points added) by a mile, with his 63.8 mark well-distanced from Dallas Goedert (44.0) in second place. Furthermore, his 78 first downs ranked only behind Justin Jefferson among all pass catchers.
Even in more of a underneath/middle-of-the-field offense with Tyreek Hill gone, Kelce dominated despite receiving extra attention from defenses. In his later years, he’s perfected his route-running nuance with keen zone awareness. Not even star receivers like Davante Adams or Cooper Kupp are able to get wide open as often as Kelce does. He reminds me of Wes Welker at tight end size with his route tree and YAC ability. Or maybe he’s the evolution/10.0 version of what Aaron Hernandez brought to the table with the Patriots.
I still believe Rob Gronkowski is a more complete football player as a blocker/pass-catcher with big-play, down-the-field ability. But Kelce is certainly claiming his stake to be the best receiving tight end in NFL history with his late-career play. As it stands, he’s now second all-time in the playoffs in receptions (133), receiving yards (1,548) and receiving touchdowns (16).
Considering Kelce’s game is now predicated on underneath sit/option routes, intermediate targets and quickness/nuance, he may keep up the pace this season as Mahomes’ third-down binky in big moments.

20. Maxx Crosby — EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: 38)

Years removed from becoming a star on HBO‘s Hard Knocks, Crosby is now one of the most complete defensive players in the league. Last year, he finished eighth in both sacks (12.5) and 61 QB pressures, and graded out as the fourth-best run defender among EDGE defenders by PFF.
He’s been a great pass rusher for awhile. He set the record in 2021 for QB Pressures (82) in the NFL Next Gen Stats era, and last year he notched 36 QB hits (second behind Nick Bosa). When looking at his array of pass rush moves, it’s clear he envisioned playing another position at first. “I initially wanted to be a tight end,” Crosby told PFF in a recent profile piece. “That’s what I thought my best position was. I was like, ‘OK, I play basketball, I’m athletic, I’m coordinated. I want to play tight end.’”
In 2022 he was much improved as a run defender. He had 69 defensive stops (most in a season since 2016), a 33.9% run stop win rate, and a league-leading 22 tackles for a loss.
Despite having Patrick Graham at defensive coordinator to further Josh McDaniels’ Patriots ties, Vegas didn’t fully shift to a 3-4 defense, instead went with more multiple looks, which is a Graham staple. Crosby is still mostly playing with his hand in the dirt as an athletic 4-3 style EDGE, which suits him well. Although, in an attempt to upgrade the other EDGE spot occupied by Chandler Jones — who is in the twilight of his career — the Raiders selected Tyree Wilson at No. 7 overall, and Wilson is best suited as a stand-up EDGE/3-4 OLB. Jones also was mostly playing stand-up EDGE last year in the Raiders’ fronts. Vegas is mostly copying New England’s current base look that is half 4-3 and half 3-4, with someone like Matthew Judon standing up opposite Deatrich Wise Jr. with his hand in the dirt on the opposite edge.
If you watch Netflix‘s Quarterback, or read the PFF profile above on Crosby, you’ll get a glimpse of his tenacity. “I’m not gonna stop until I get that recognition,” Crosby told PFF. “I’m not gonna stop until I’m winning and whatever that takes. I’m willing to run that marathon and like, I don’t care if it’s year eight or nine until they’re like, ‘Yeah, Maxx is the best guy in the league.’

19.Sauce Gardner – CB, New York Jets (Last year: NR)

He made his presence known immediately as one of the NFL’s best players, racking up Defensive Rookie of the Year and finishing first in PFF‘s CB grade (87.9) and pass coverage grade (90.0). He also tied for the league lead in pass breakups (20) and posted a league-best 24.7% ball-hawk rate.
His lanky frame and athleticism at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds is intimidating on the boundary. “Standing near Sauce Gardner, given his height and wingspan for that position, you wonder how in the world anyone gets open against him,” longtime New York sports columnist Ian O’Connor tweeted. “He looks more like an NBA wing than an NFL corner.”
Head coach Robert Saleh’s roots as a defensive coach stem from Seattle’s Legion of Boom/Cover-3 days, and although Saleh has adapted to modern times by mixing in more Quarters (Cover-4) and man-match coverage in San Francisco and New York, the perimeter CB prototype is still Richard Sherman. Gardner has Sherman’s length but is much more athletic and sticky in man coverage. He’s a true disruptor on the outside.
Gardner is a potential Hall-of-Fame talent, and is one of the most promising young players in the game.

18. Patrick Surtain II – CB, Denver Broncos (Last year: 76)

Accolades and praise are beginning to fly in for a young CB prospect that was projected to be a star probably back at birth. And for good reason. Last year he was named First-team All-Pro and was graded second by PFF in both coverage and overall play for CBs. Make no question – Patrick Surtain II has arrived.
“I spoke to a couple of people that believe he’s the best corner in football.” NFL Films‘ Greg Cosell said of Surtain on The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell.
“Complete corner. Physical, technical, versatile,” a high-ranking NFL official told ESPN. “He’s a true matchup guy versus the best players. Premium ability on press or off coverage. Outstanding open-field tackler. Solid ball skills. Plays with confidence. Really, really smart. And plays disciplined so he doesn’t give anything away.”
He had the lowest target rate (12.5%) among any CB with at least 201 coverage snaps (he had 533 such snaps) last season. QBs are simply avoiding him.
This season, Surtain II will now play under Vance Joseph’s aggressive man coverage, blitz-heavy scheme that puts a lot of pressure on it’s cornerbacks to cover.
To me, Sauce Gardner may barely have a higher ceiling with top-end talent and length. But Surtain’s potential is right there, and I believe his “drop him anywhere and watch him thrive” type of scheme versatility and smoothness are beyond any other cornerback in the league right now, including Gardner, Jalen Ramsey or anyone else.

17. Justin Herbert – QB, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 18)

One of the better tools/traits QBs that we’ve ever seen in terms of pure throwing talent. He has an absolute rocket for an arm.
His TD and yards per attempt numbers took a bit of a nosedive last year despite Herbert having a better completion percentage. Defenses were able to key on Mike Williams, forcing Herbert to work more underneath/intermediate with the likes of Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, who had injury problems once more in 2022. Still, Herbert carried a heavy load on offense, as the Chargers ranked second in the NFL in pass rate, opting to throw over rushing the ball on 63.8% of plays.
The Chargers just paid Herbert the largest contract in NFL history with a five-year, $262.5 million extension. In the lead-up, they’ve begun to build around their franchise quarterback, bringing in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and drafting wide receiver Quentin Johnson in the first round.
Herbert has had a promising young start to his NFL career. He’s had the lowest turnover worthy play rate (1.6%) over the last two seasons. And despite that, the Chargers still seem to butcher close games in the final minutes and blow leads only the Falcons seem capable of. There’s a stink with this team that the franchise can’t seem to shake. They had nine players in my Top 100 going into last season, which was the most I had ever seen over the years doing this exercise. One year later, I see this club as having a bundle of former stars that are now aging players. To keep pace in what looks to be a historically good AFC in terms of stockpiled talent, Herbert needs a bit more help. For now, he’ll keep the Chargers in the mix.

16.Fred Warner – LB, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 24)

He was named First-team All-Pro for the second time in three seasons last year and PFF graded him as the second-best linebacker in the league. It’s almost unanimous that he’s the best linebacker in today’s game. He, along with Nick Bosa, are the main reasons the Niners led the league in defensive scoring (allowed 16.3 PPG) and total yards allowed per game (300.6).
“He’s the perfect new-age linebacker,” an AFC scout said of Warner to ESPN. “‘Great against the pass but can handle himself against the run, a big athlete with plus leadership and communication.”
The 49ers defense runs on four-man pressure up front (and less blitzing) — which helps when you have Bosa — and Cover 3/Quarters/man-match coverage on the outside, meaning Warner and fellow LB Dre Greenlaw (and safety Talanoa Hufanga) are relied upon to make the middle of the field a no-fly zone, and they do just that. And when the 49ers do have Warner blitzing, he’s deadly.
His ability to cover the seams without giving too much depth in pass defense is a treat to watch. His range is unbelievable. He’s also perfectly suited to chase down running backs on outside zone concepts. There’s no one better suited for the present-day NFL at LB.

15. Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: 12)

After four years running a bulky, multi-TE offense behind Greg Roman that revolved around Jackson’s running ability, Todd Monken has now joined as an offensive coordinator from Georgia to get one of the league’s most dynamic players operating in space in more 3-WR & spread empty looks out of shotgun and pistol formations in the passing game, while still featuring TE-heavy personnel.
Regardless of scheme, we know how good Jackson can be. He ranks second in the league in Total QBR (68) since 2019 and his winning percentage (.738; 45-16) is good for fourth all-time in the Super Bowl era (min. 50 starts). He’s also well on his way to becoming the all-time QB leader in rush yards (4,437) and rushing attempts, even if he slows his pace just a bit on designed runs under Monken.
Jeremy Fowler’s Top 10 QBs list ranked by execs, coaches and scouts on ESPN had Jackson ranked two spots below Philly’ Jalen Hurts. To me, the Ravens’ offense and reliance on Jackson is more than what Philadelphia asks Hurts to do. Hurts’ highly-schemed zone-read/RPO/vertical passing offense certainly requires his skills, but it’s highly schemed up. Jackson has often been asked to make something out of nothing in a boxy, perimeter-ignoring, middle-of-the-field operation revolving around his running ability and passes to tight ends. Jackson hasn’t had the chance to throw to the A.J. Browns and Devonta Smiths of the world, or to consistently showcase his arm on deep boundary throws. This is not a knock on Hurts, who I love as a mentally-tough player who paved his way through a lot. But I believe Jackson is a bit better right now.
Throughout his career, he’s been criticized as a boundary thrower, even though he’s shown great flashes as a deep passer. The next season or two will be a good test for Jackson, and I think he’s ready to showcase just how efficient he can be as a thrower.

14. Trent Williams – OT, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 11)

In three seasons with the 49ers from ages 32 to 34 Williams has been graded as PFF‘s top tackle each year. He’s also been named First-team All-Pro in each of the past two seasons. Despite turning 35 over the summer, he remains the best offensive lineman in the league. He’s the second-oldest player on my list.
His quickness and ability to move around in space at 6-foot-5, 320 pounds is downright absurd. Because of that, he’s a perfect fit as a stampeding left tackle in Shanahan’s outside zone running game.
PFF also graded him as the top run-blocking offensive tackle for the second straight season. Additionally, he was fifth in pass-blocking among his peers, and posted a 92.4% pass block win rate. He’s the complete package at one of the most important positions in football.

13. Davante Adams – WR (X/Z/Slot), Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: 14)

In his first year in the black and silver, Adams garnered his third consecutive First-team All-Pro honor with 100 catches and 1,516 receiving yards on a league-leading 180 targets. He also led the NFL in receiving touchdowns (14).
He’s known for being a route-running expert who plays much quicker and more nuanced than his size suggests. He’s famously been used in matchup hunting as a slot option on key passing downs, but he spends a lot of his time on the outside as an X or Z-receiver either on or off the line. In Vegas, Adams was primarily an X-receiver last year.
“His feet are still probably the best, body control, ball skills,” an NFC executive said, via ESPN. “If you ran 40s or 20-yard shuttles, he wouldn’t be near the top or wow you, but he just knows how to play the position and get open.”
With Jakobi Meyers now in the fold as a Z-receiver, Josh McDaniels will likely try to recreate the Julian Edelman-Danny Amendola combo with Meyers and Hunter Renfrow. Both of them are among my favorite players in the league, but the way I see it, each resemble more of Amendola’s play, with neither having the explosiveness or YAC ability of Edelman. That’ll put more pressure on Adams with bracket coverage and double teams until Vegas can establish consistency beating 1-on-1 man coverage on third downs with Meyers, Renfrow or perhaps rookie second-round pick TE Michael Mayer.
“He’s quicker than what you think,” Edelman said of Adams last summer via The I Am Athlete Podcast. “He can run run by you, has great separation, great catch radius. You can play him everywhere, and we saw that with the Packers the last couple years. His versatility, his size, his quickness…he’s not the fastest guy, but he’s never not open, because he had the back shoulder thing going with Aaron Rodgers.”

12. Chris Jones – DI, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 33)

After being named Second-team All-Pro three times earlier in his career, Jones finally earned First-team honors. He was his usual self as a dominant pass rusher and had a career year against the run. He led all defensive tackles in sacks (15.5) and PFF grade (1st in pass rush; 2nd in run coverage), and was second among all pass rushers in QB hurries on four-man rushes (43; second to Micah Parsons). He was the best interior defender in the league last year, and this summer he predicted he’d win DPOY in 2023, via his Twitter.
Most fans probably thought of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as a “Big 3” in Kansas City, but Jones is arguably more valuable to KC than anyone not named Mahomes. He’s an instrumental cog to their success. If Jones were to get injured or underperform the Chiefs would be left vulnerable up front defensively, despite a recent string of solid drafts on that side of the ball. Star defenders who can provide consistent pressure in the interior are becoming a gold rush-like must-have for teams. There is a group of young stars now at the the position, but Jones remains the only player close to Donald in terms of ability. He’s been searching for a new deal this offseason, and Kansas City would be wise to try their hardest to meet his needs while staying cap-healthy.
Starving for pressure on opposing QBs, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones to defensive end at the beginning of 2021 before moving him back inside where he belongs. The Chiefs gave up assets and money for EDGE Frank Clark, and although he had some success in the postseason, Clark mostly had a JD Drew/2007 Boston Red Sox-like effect as a player who underperformed his deal. Clark is now gone, and the Chiefs have invested two first-round picks in the form of George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah to provide some pressure on the edge. Jones should command double teams, which should open things up for them to get 1-on-1s.
Whether it’s yelling in Tom Brady’s face or punishing other QBs, Jones brings a fiery, “I’m going to knock you out” type attitude to a team that spends a lot of time in the limelight/big games. Jones is sort of almost like the team’s Rodney Harrison, who was an enforcer for the Patriots Super Bowl teams in the 2000s. Every dynasty needs a player like that, and the Chiefs are one Super Bowl win away from being one.

11. T.J. Watt – EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 6)

It was a year to forget for Watt last season as he played in just 10 games and notched 5.5 sacks. He has forced 23 fumbles in six seasons, and had three consecutive seasons of First-team All-Pro honors (DPOY in 2021), 90.0+ PFF pass rushing grades and 52 total sacks over that time (most in NFL) before last year’s injury-marred campaign. Expect him to get back on track this year.
“[Ranking pass-rushers] is all preference, but when healthy, Watt is hands down the best in the game,” an NFC exec said to ESPN. “Watt is to edge rush what [Aaron] Donald is to interior.”
Although a fine player, Alex Highsmith inked a big contract extension this summer after a season that was helped somewhat by the T.J. Watt effect. Watt missed some time, but when on the field, he contributed to Highsmith’s 14.5 sacks (6th in NFL) and 63 QB pressures (5th) marks that helped bring in the deal. Bud Dupree was the last lucky man to cash in big thanks to playing opposite Watt as a 3-4 stand-up OLB in Pittsburgh’s defense.
Really, the Steelers new base is the Nickel version of a 3-4 that is a 2-4-5 look. Cameron Heyward often accompanies a nose tackle in the interior, while Watt and another stand-up EDGE rush the passer on the outside. Pittsburgh, like Green Bay, rarely bucks tradition on the field or off of it. Pittsburgh will continue to play this style of defense in 2023.

10. Aaron Donald – DI, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 1)

After seven straight seasons of being named First-team All-Pro and PFF‘s top interior defender, an injury slowed him down for the first time. A high-ankle sprain caused him to miss six games, yet he was still PFF‘s third-highest graded defensive tackle. Now at age 32, it’s plausible his best years are behind him.
I had him at the top of my list going into last year. Then, he was fresh off a Super Bowl win and the largest and most lucrative contract for a Non-QB in league history despite mulling retirement during the offseason. Since he came into the league in 2014, he leads the league in sacks (103), which is absurd for an interior defender, and he’s taken home three Defensive Player of the Year awards. I’ve stated he’s one of the top 10 to 15 players in NFL history, at minimum. But it’s worth wondering if his mega-extension was undoubtedly wise for the Rams. Because of the way they did business over the last few seasons, they’re cap-strapped with deals for Donald, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and others taking up a majority of their cap space. They traded multiple first-round picks for Jalen Ramsey and paid him, which certainly paid off, but now he’s in Miami. The Rams signed an extraordinary amount of undrafted rookies to compete for 53-man roster spots in training camp because that’s likely the only way they’ll fill their roster. Donald will likely be playing with a bunch of unknowns on defense just a season after playing with Ramsey, Bobby Wagner and other stars and known commodities.
But let’s stay grounded here, Donald certainly may have another All-Pro season or two left in the tank. But things will be much harder with no one else on defense to draw attention away from him. Nothing will come easy. Donald has commanded the most double teams in the league (1,797) since 2017, and you can expect that number to be near the top of the league again this season.
Since becoming the team’s defensive coordinator in 2021, Raheem Morris has implemented an aggressive, blitz-heavy 3-4 defense, where Donald serves mostly as a 3-4 DE in the interior.

9. Ja’Marr Chase – WR (X/Z), Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: 16)

One of the game’s best young talents. I expect him to challenge Justin Jefferson (and maybe Marvin Harrison Jr.?) these next five-to-seven years as the greatest WR of the 2020s. He’s as explosive as they come as a 6-foot, 201-pound burner-bully combo. He’s a deep threat and is arguably the best run-after-catch guy in the league.
He’s also at his best in the playoffs as a clutch performer. He reminds me of a souped-up, much more explosive Steve Smith who also is a speed/YAC demon on schemed touches. He’s really a great pure wide receiver and a frickin’ playmaker.
“He’s not as polished as a route runner or technician as Jefferson, but the combination of size, speed and playmaking ability is elite,” a senior NFL personnel evaluator said of Chase, via ESPN. “He’s trending up. His raw playmaking ability is rare. Run after catch, he’s probably the best of these guys.”
Veteran Tyler Boyd mostly occupies the slot receiver role for the Bengals, and then Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins mix and match interchangeably at the X and Z-receiver spots.
“He’s the rare X receiver you can put on the outside, and he can win against anyone,” an NFC exec said, via ESPN. “Other receivers are more scheme-dependent than him.”

8. Tyreek Hill – WR (X/Z), Miami Dolphins (Last year: 22)

Even with Hill’s talent, I was somewhat skeptical of how he’d produce in Miami away from Mahomes. I was wrong. He was just as special. It’s a different game now, where there’s a bevy of talented receivers that can sign big free agent deals elsewhere/get traded and still produce at the same level.
In 2022, he was named First-team All-Pro for the fourth time in seven seasons, leading the league in yards per route run (3.2), target share (33%), explosive pass-catcher plays (48), PFF grade for WRs (92.1) and PFF receiving grade (92.0). He also finished second in receiving yards (1,710), receptions (119) and 20+ yard receiving plays (25).
Kyle Shanahan’s system (Mike McDaniel) treated him well as Hill was unguardable on deep crossers and other routes designed to hit him on the move downfield. These were different looks than the designed deep, deep shots that Andy Reid cooked up for him and Mahomes/Alex Smith in Kansas City, but Hill fit in just nicely. McDaniel also moved him around the formation, with PFF charting his boundary/slot split at roughly 60-40.
He can truly thrive anywhere. He is an all-time talent. I put him on the short list with the 21st century’s best pass-catching weapons with a unique athletic football profile and flair. The list includes: Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones and former teammate Travis Kelce.

7.Justin Jefferson – WR (X/Z), Minnesota Vikings (Last year: 21)

What else can you say? He’s the best WR in the NFL right now, which says a lot considering the position’s marquee stance and the talent below him on this list.
Since he’s come into the league in 2020, he’s been named an All-Pro each season and has led the league in receiving yards (4,825) and explosive plays (126). Last year he was named First-team All-Pro and Offensive Player of the Year, and he led the NFL in targets (184), receptions (128), receiving yards (1,809), yards after catch (643), receiving first downs (80) and 20+ yard plays (28). He also made one of the greatest catches in NFL history on a clutch one-handed grab on a 4th and 18 to keep things alive in an eventual win in Buffalo.
“You can put him in all 32 offenses, and he will produce and fit in seamlessly,” an NFC executive said, via ESPN. “Most consistent, most complete, the ability to separate, has a knack to make the play when it needs to be made, shows up in big moments. The game is just really natural to him. Can beat doubles and can work inside or out.”
At the beginning of the century, some of the most-coveted receivers were either tall/fast/athletic X-receivers or speed/route-running demons (think: Marvin Harrison at 6-foot, 185 lbs). Now, the new prototype is a hybrid like Jefferson (and ironically, Marvin Harrison Jr., who will be a top-5 pick this spring), as a slimmer/tall, but not-too-skinny 6-foot-1, nearly 200-pound receiver with speed, quickness, jump ball/contested catch ability, supreme route-running talent/nuance, yards-after-catch explosiveness and alignment versatility as a boundary/slot operator that does work as both a X and Z-receiver. Receivers such as Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs meet this hyrbid mold I’m talking about. Cooper Kupp is sort of another one. Jefferson is the best of the bunch.
If there’s something to work on, it’s Jefferson’s consistency to get down field quicker versus competent press-man coverage. In the meantime, Kevin O’Connell likes putting Jefferson off the line as a Z-receiver with some pre-snap motion to help give him a clean release.

6. Joe Burrow – QB, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: 17)

Burrow is a prolific pocket passer with bravado, poise and an overall coolness about him that is almost unmatched (save for Mahomes) in the current NFL with Tom Brady now retired.
He backed up a superb sophomore campaign by almost leading the Bengals to a second straight Super Bowl via a second consecutive AFC title game victory in Arrowhead. Cincinnati fell just short, but Burrow put together a wunderkind season. He was second in the league in TD passes (35; tied with Josh Allen), and for the second straight year he finished at the top of PFF‘s QB grading in overall play (92.0; tied with Mahomes). PFF also gave him the league’s best passing grade.
He’s more nimble than you’d think outside the pocket (2nd in QBR outside pocket in 2022), and he’s one of the league’s very best deep ball throwers, leading the league in 20 yard-plus throws for TDs (19) over the last two years.
Many will point to the talent around him in Cincy (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, etc.) as reasoning for why he’s nipped at Mahomes’ heels over the past two seasons as a top QB, but Burrow has the traits to elevate a lesser cast, and he’ll get his chance to do so here soon as the Bengals will likely pay Burrow and Chase record contract extensions, which would cause them to lose many others due to cap space constrictions.
Like many elite offenses in 2022, the Bengals had to figure out how to attack two-high looks. They eventually shifted to more early-down shotgun formations where they ran on lighter boxes with Joe Mixon, and attacked deep up the middle when Burrow could sniff out Cover-2. The Ringer‘s Steven Ruiz wrote a piece on the shifting Bengals’ offense last October, and it had this Burrow quote that stuck with me when thinking Cincy changing scheme tendencies: “One week we might throw a bunch of RPOs like last week,” Burrow said. “The next week we might be able to be a downhill run team. We’ll have to see. Every defense is different so every game plan calls for something else…maybe we start to see some tighter boxes since we’ve been running it so well out of the gun. Maybe we get back under center and it opens up those play-actions and under-center runs. We’ll see what happens; it depends on the game plan.” The Bengals are continuing to evolve on offense, helping to take the load off Burrow, but Cincy is at it’s best with him drop-back passing and distributing to his playmakers.
(Edit: This piece was published before Cincinnati signed Burrow to the largest contract in NFL history. The agreement is a 5-year, $275 million extension with $219.01 million guaranteed.)

5. Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills (Last year: 5)

NFL Films‘ Greg Cosell has been highlighted a few times already in my list. I hold him and his film study in high regard. Cosell called Allen “the most physically gifted QB in the NFL” in 2021. When all goes right (and it often does), that still rings true. His size and running ability matched with his all-time arm strength puts him even slightly ahead of Mahomes on the “did you see that?!” scale. He’s Cam Newton with a tad less running power (but still holds a lot of it), but with more speed and is a much much better passer.
The Bills beat the Chiefs in Kansas City early last season and for awhile there it looked like they were primed to get over the hump as a Super Bowl-worthy club. Allen had 42 total touchdowns for the second straight year and PFF graded him as the league’s best running QB, and third in passing and overall play. He also led the league in QBR under pressure (91.2) and QBR on third down (91.2) and was second in overall QBR (71.4) behind only Mahomes. Everything came crashing down in their January home loss to the Bengals in the Divisional round.
Overall, there didn’t seem to be much of a decline post-Brian Daboll for Allen. He still excelled, passing the ball and maneuvering on designed runs out of Air-Raid, shotgun-spread looks. And his out-of-structure improvisation ability rivals Mahomes.
Allen stated this offseason that things could change this season in terms of his style of play: “I’ve always had the mindset of, I’ve been a football player first and a quarterback second,” Allen told reporters. “At some point that is going to have to switch. When that point is, I don’t know. I guess I’ll let my body tell me…It sounds crazy, but I’m getting older. I know I can’t continue to do this. I know when I’m using my youth, I feel like I can, but over the course of my career, I’m going to have to learn to adapt and change..There were some times last year where I’m in the open field, I don’t need an extra two yards. Get down, slide and live to fight another down. Again, it’s worked up to this point, but I understand that there’s going to be a point in time where it’s not going to work so well.”
If rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid can pick things up quickly as a compliment to Stefon Diggs as a “big” slot option in the seam with some Travis Kelce-like route-running ability underneath, and James Cook has a better Year 2, Allen and the Bills could become more dynamic on offense while Allen becomes more of a superstar point-guard than a “running back” quarterback in 2023.

4. Myles Garrett – EDGE, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 7)

He’s becoming a bit underrated as others get more air/discussion time because of the Browns’ mediocrity these past two seasons. Garrett is one of the most dominant, physically-imposing players in the league at any position.
He’s been named an All-Pro in four out of the last five seasons and was second last year in sacks (16) and QB pressures (72). He also led the league in several PFF metrics, including EDGE grade (92.5), pass rushing (93.5), PFF pass rush win rate (25.6%) and PFF WAR (wins above replacement). He was the best pass rusher in the league by PFF by virtually any measure, including on third or fourth down, non-blitz rushes, and on pass-rushing snaps in the fourth quarter.
With Jim Schwartz now in Cleveland as defensive coordinator, expect Garrett to continue to man a hand-in-the-dirt defensive end spot in Schwartz’s four-man fronts. There could be an uptick in Wide-9 alignment for Garrett, but really he’s best used as a power rusher lined up over the offensive tackle, and that’s where you should continue to see him most.
Last season, Garrett produced despite being double teamed more than any other EDGE defender, according to TruMedia. Cleveland has brought in EDGE Za’Darius Smith (57 QB pressures in 2022; 9th in NFL) and run-stuffer Davlin Tomlinson to help up front. I’m not confident in Deshaun Watson’s ability to get back on track offensively, but on defense, the Browns should be one of the league’s best units in 2023, with Garrett at the forefront.

3. Nick Bosa – EDGE, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 8)

He picked up his first Defensive Player of the Year award and First-team All-Pro honor last year with a dominant season that saw him lead the league in sacks (18.5), QB pressures (73) & QB hits (48) as a terrorizing 4-3 style defensive end.
“Size, strength, power, speed, quickness, solid length, repertoire of moves and high motor,” a high-ranking NFL official told ESPN of Bosa. “He’s got it all.”
Stealing Javon Hargrave from Philly in free agency could be the power tilt in the NFC for a 49ers team who even has a big question mark at QB. Hargrave joins former first-round picks Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead on the line, as well as Bosa (former No. 2 overall selection) to form a daunting four man-front. Even without Bosa, that’s a somewhat menacing unit. Adding Bosa as a wide rusher while the others destroy lineman in the interior seems unfair.
Bosa is playing this season on his fifth-year option, so a mega-extension is coming for one of the league’s very best football players.
(Edit: This piece was published before San Francisco signed Bosa to a 5-year, $170 million mega-extension with $122.5 million guaranteed. That now makes him the highest-paid defensive player in league history.)

2. Micah Parsons – EDGE, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 9)

After two seasons acting as a hybrid linebacker and EDGE, Parsons is moving to the LEO pass-rushing spot as a stand-up havoc-creator in Dan Quinn’s 3-4 defense.
Last year, Parsons graded out as the second-best EDGE in pass rush, coverage and overall game by PFF a year after the site graded him as the top linebacker and EDGE. He also has 26.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in just two seasons, and his 70 QB pressures last year ranked third in the league behind just Bosa (73) and Garrett (72). Additionally, he led all defensive players in pressures (72) in true pass sets, according to PFF.
There’s no question that he should produce better pass-rushing numbers in his new full-time spot. The edge is where he belongs full-time. Parsons has led all edge defenders in each of the past two seasons in pass rush win rate (29.2%, 29.7%), and his overall pressure rate (18.3%) on the QB is tops in the league among EDGE defenders since 2021, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Although aging, having DeMarcus Lawrence as a hand-in-the-dirt power EDGE on the opposite side makes this Cowboys duo one of the league’s nastiest at any position. Add in Stephon Gilmore to bring some sticky coverage opposite the Marcus Peters-like style of Trevon Diggs, and the Cowboys are building out one of the league’s very best defenses around what I believe is the best defensive player in football heading into 2023. For Parsons, I expect a dominant run of seasons that should include a few Defensive Player of the Year awards and many more All-Pro honors. He’s a modern day Lawrence Taylor, and as great as Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett are, I believe Parsons is about to hit another gear in 2023.

1. Patrick Mahomes – QB, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 4)

With two Super Bowl wins (and two Super Bowl MVP awards), two NFL MVP awards and three All-Pro selections in his first five years as a starter, Mahomes is on track to produce a career that may spring Michael Jordan-LeBron James-like ‘GOAT’ debates between him and Tom Brady 15 years from now.
I first brought up the potential future Brady-Mahomes/MJ-LeBron debate parallels after the Chiefs QB won his first Super Bowl after the 2019 season. When looking at his resume just entering his age-28 season, you see we are passed almost any possible hyperbole when discussing the heights Mahomes could possibly reach. Since 2018, he leads the league in TD passes (192), passing yards (23,957), regular season wins (64) and playoff wins (11). He’s also the all-time leader in regular season winning percentage min. 80 starts (80%) and is second all-time in TD/INT ratio (behind Aaron Rodgers).
Last season, Mahomes won the MVP award and Super Bowl MVP (first since Kurt Warner in 1999), leading the league in passing yards (5,250), TD passes, (41), Total QBR (77.6), Total QBR vs. blitz (83.6), PFF grade (92.0; tied Burrow among QBs) and EPA (expected points added) per drop back.
If you can excuse the major stats dump above, my goal is to inform that he was far and away the best QB in football last year despite losing an all-time talent in Tyreek Hill. Mahomes relied on his remaining all-time unique playmaker in Travis Kelce, and then made due with a pretty middling pass-catching group as the Chiefs relied more on Mahomes, the running game, an improved offensive line and more under-center looks, like 13 personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends). This was a revamped offense that was less reliant on deep bombs and other downfield heaves in shotgun, Air Raid looks that Andy Reid had made the Chiefs bread and butter since even the late Alex Smith days.
31 of Mahomes’ 41 TD passes went to RBs or TEs (most since 1966) as the Chiefs became a more YAC-oriented offense. In 2022, Mahomes’ YAC per completion (6.6) finished only behind Jimmy Garoppolo in Kyle Shanahan’s offense that historically revolves around yards after catch in the passing game.
Last year, Mahomes changed his style to become a more mature version of himself as a player, while still using his alien-like ability to side-arm throws and zip passes past defenders. The Chiefs QB ultimately learned to be more patient as a passer, and he looked mighty comfortable buying time and evading rushers, battling back versus the two-high safety “umbrella” zone coverages trend that defenses threw his way late in 2021 to make him uncomfortable. In just one offseason of work, he was finding success effortlessly from what had tripped him up the year before. That’s scary. If the Chiefs can figure it out with two new offensive tackles, and find help/create depth in the pass-catching room behind Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mahomes should figure out the rest in 2023.
Mahomes has already accomplished everything most QBs ever would have wanted. At this point he’s just chasing ghosts, trying to carve his name in the annals of NFL history. Let’s enjoy the trek.
Bonus extra bullet – This summer’s Quarterbacks documentary from Netflix/Ohama Productions/NFL Films, gives great behind-the-scenes footage into Mahomes’ life. It’s a must-watch for anyone looking to know more about the player of this generation.

Brent Schwartz’s Top 100 NFL Players of 2022

Posted on September 8, 2022September 10, 2022 by Brent Schwartz

After a long offseason, pro football has returned, and I come bearing a gift.

This is my fifth annual NFL Top 100 Players list. Over 100-plus hours of research and execution was poured into this, I kid you not. I put my heart and soul into this exercise, and I hope whoever reads this enjoys it, and learns something along the way.

As much fun as I have with the ranking, I mostly use this teach myself and others by digging deeper into the players, teams, schemes and trends that make this league so fascinating.

For instance, my favorite trend I noticed when creating this list are that bigger “bell cow” running backs, capable of carrying the ball 25-plus times a game, are slowly returning. Like many things on Earth, this league can be cyclical.

To highlight more of a new trend, as big and talented pass catchers begin populating the pro game and moving around offensive formations, there seems to be a litany of big and fast “positionless” defensive backs now being employed. Some are cornerbacks that play in the nickel as often as they play outside. Others are deep safety/box safety/nickel hybrids that can cover every different style of new-age pass catcher.

There’s many more subtleties that can be uncovered from doing such a piece, so I’ll just let everyone identify other findings themselves. So let’s get into it.

But before we dive into the list, let’s look at some important notes and data:

— As it’s always been with this exercise, my criteria in ranking players remains my self-created 70/30 rule. 70 percent of my decision to place a player on my list is based off that player’s last two or three seasons of play, and 30 percent is based off their potential in 2022.

— You’ll notice I left Deshaun Watson off the list, as the Cleveland Browns quarterback will miss at least 11 games this season due to suspension from the league after being accused of sexual misconduct by more than two dozen women during massage sessions. It goes without saying, but a quarterback who misses that many games in a season won’t be nearly as valuable. Additionally, some of the details reported by accusers are heinous. The situation is uncomfortable to even discuss.

In addition to Watson, there were two players initially on my list when I began the process in April and May, before circumstances caused them to drop off. Those players are tight end Rob Gronkowski, who retired, and Dallas Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith, whom I had at No. 69 on this list before he suffered a knee injury that will likely keep him out until December, and if not, the whole season.

— Here are the teams with the most players on my list:

Los Angeles Chargers (9)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8)

Los Angeles Rams (6)

San Francisco 49ers (5)

Kansas City Chiefs (5)

Las Vegas Raiders (5)

Cincinnati Bengals (5)

Cleveland Browns (5)

Indianapolis Colts (5)

Baltimore Ravens (4)

Pittsburgh Steelers (4)

New Orleans Saints (4)

— Since I began this exercise back in 2018, no two teams have had more Top 100 players than this year’s iterations of the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams are considered some of the most talented rosters in the NFL, along with the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. Together, the Chargers, Bucs and Rams make up for nearly a quarter of the players on this list. The San Francisco 49ers actually have the most top-end talent on my list, as all five of their players listed ranked in my top 30.

What you may find surprising is that this year’s Super Bowl favorite, the Buffalo Bills, only have three players on this list. And the Philadelphia Eagles, widely considered one of the most talented rosters in the league after adding pieces this offseason, have only one player on this list. Of course, each of these teams have great depth, and if I ranked the top 300 players in the league, both Buffalo and Philadelphia would surely have many more players listed here.

— Here are the number of players selected for each position:

Quarterback (13)

Running Back (9)

Wide Receiver (19)

Tight End (5)

Tackle (5)

Guard (6)

Center (2)

Defensive Interior (7)

EDGE (13)

Linebacker (5)

Cornerback (8)

Safety (8)

(NOTE: Deebo Samuel was counted as a WR here; Micah Parsons was registered as a LB)

— Here were the 25 players that nearly made my list, but were squeezed out in the evaluation process:

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Marcus Davenport, EDGE, New Orleans Saints

Tre’Davious White, CB, Buffalo Bills

Kwity Paye, EDGE, Indianapolis Colts

Rashan Gary, EDGE, Green Bay Packers

J.J. Watt, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals

Chandler Jones, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Amon Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

Kendall Fuller, CB, Washington Commanders

Jason Kelce, C, Philadelphia Eagles

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants,

Terron Armstead, OT, Miami Dolphins

Daniele Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

Josh Allen, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints

Micah Hyde, S, Buffalo Bills

Darius Slay, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears

Kenny Clark, DI, Green Bay Packers

A.J. Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers

Jordan Mailata, OT, Philadelphia Eagles

Christian Barmore, DI, New England Patriots

And now, without further ado, the list…

*******

100. Hunter Renfrow — WR, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: NR)

The list begins with a player on the cusp of entering his prime heading into Year 4 in Raiders receiver Hunter Renfrow.

Renfrow nearly doubled his career-best numbers in his third season, going for 1,038 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on 103 catches. Impressively, his 103 receptions on 128 targets gave him the second-best catch rate (79.9%) of any receiver in the league last year, after the Cardinals’ Rondale Moore, who often garnered catches on de-facto reverses via pre-snap motion.

This season, Renfrow will be playing under new head coach Josh McDaniels, which bodes well for his chances of having even bigger break-through season in 2022, considering McDaniels’ offensive partly revolves around the slot receiver position.

Las Vegas’ offense has a full arsenal of offensive weapons (Darren Waller, newcomer DeVante Adams, Josh Jacobs, etc.), but Renfrow’s chemistry with returning quarterback Derek Carr, and the reciever’s smooth, nuanced route-running ability should keep him in the league’s top 20 in targets this year.

He’s primed to become a breakout star via both efficient, on-field play and fantasy football production this season.

99. Matthew Judon — EDGE, New England Patriots (Last year: NR)

Entering last season as one of the Patriots’ biggest free agent splash signings of the Bill Belichick era, Matthew Judon lived up to the hype with a career-high 12.5 sacks as a stand-up EDGE defender in New England’s mostly 3-4-style scheme.

His torrid play faded a bit down the stretch (he suffered a rib injury and contracted COVID-19), but looking at his season in totality, it was superb.

Matthew Judon: Career high 64 pressures in 2021🔥

Most in a season by a Patriots defender since Trey Flowers in 2018 pic.twitter.com/H4iAbJpZb4

— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) February 28, 2022

In addition to his impressive sack total, Judon also notched 64 pressures (best by a Patriot since 2018) in 2021, to add to his 169 total since 2019, good for 10th-most among NFL edge rushers since 2019.

When staying focused on the edge, he’s one of the the better defenders at his position in the league. He’s both quick and powerful as a pass rusher and is no slouch in setting the edge in the run game. He can play on the strong side or back side, but in a perfect world the Patriots would benefit from him rushing the passer on the lighter side of formations, but the team doesn’t quite have the personnel at this juncture to make that happen.

The Patriots will rely heavily on Judon once more in 2022, and the veteran has a great chance of an even better season in Year 2 of his stint in New England.

98. Tyrann Mathieu — S, New Orleans Saints (Last year: 51)

After three seasons in Kansas City playing the best football of his career, the “Honey Badger” will suit up for his hometown New Orleans Saints in his age-30 season after signing a three-year, $33 million deal with them this offseason.

Mathieu’s play may have dipped a little in 2021 compared to his scorching two-season stretch in helping the Chiefs get to back-to-back Super Bowls, but the veteran do-it-all defensive back still should excel in a Swiss army knife role, excelling in nickel/slot, the box, and as a two-deep safety.

Last year, Mathieu spent most of his snaps as a box safety (501), according to Pro Football Focus. But he still registered quite a few plays as a deep safety (308) and in the slot (241) after spending most of his time as a slot or box defender in 2020.

With Marcus Maye (free safety) coming over from the Jets, Mathieu may spend most of his time as a roaming ‘robber’ defender underneath for the Saints. Oddly enough, Mathieu’s former Chiefs teammate, Daniel Sorenson, also signed with the Saints this offseason, which means the two may share the field again often in 2022 (possibly to Mathieu’s chagrin).

As a team in flux with the departure of head coach Sean Payton retiring, free safety Marcus Williams leaving for Baltimore, and more, Mathieu’s veteran leadership may prove as useful as his play this year.

97. Allen Robinson — WR, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 77)

Taking over Odell Beckham Jr.’s role last season as the Rams’ new X-receiver, the big-bodied Robinson (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) should see a plethora of red-zone targets with defenses likely giving Cooper Kupp major attention.

Robinson turns 29 in a few weeks, so there’s still ample time for him to produce a couple high-level seasons, if he is to integrate successfully into the Rams offense.

He missed five games last year with the Bears and garnered just 38 catches for 410 receiving yards and one score. The disappointing campaign came after two straight years of solid play in, where he caught 200 passes.

Robinson has produced three great seasons over the last seven years despite being part of some of the worst quarterback situations and overall displays of offensive ineptitude. What he lacks in separation, he makes up for with the ability to out-muscle receivers with his physicality and athleticism to come down with the football.

The Rams are signing WR Allen Robinson to a three-year deal (via @TomPelissero).

Robinson has excelled in contested catch situations, ranking 3rd in tight window receptions (51) since 2018.

» Tight Window: Less than one yard of separation when the ball arrives pic.twitter.com/eA1Q7OF2ob

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 17, 2022

In Los Angeles with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, Robinson will get his first shot with one of the NFL’s best offenses in terms of personnel, coaching and scheme.

96. Brian Burns— EDGE, Carolina Panthers (Last year: NR)

After three seasons of promising play to begin his career, Brian Burns is poised for a monster Year 4 as a stand-up EDGE defender in the Panthers’ ‘multiple’ defensive scheme.

“Rare athlete,” an NFC scout told ESPN.

“Can be deployed any way in any scheme, and you have to know where he is. Can cover better than some stack linebackers. Commands attention every down for where he lines up.”

With the recent release (and subsequent reactions) of the Panthers preseason depth chart, thought I’d do a series of personnel projections based on some of a Carolina’s core schematics.

Here’s how I view their DL/LB/SAF group in a “52 Eagle” alignment. pic.twitter.com/hkJiQ9FrIv

— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) August 10, 2022

The quote is telling of Burns’ perfect fit into a unique multiple defensive scheme that utilizes both 4-3 and 3-4-style tendencies. As the Panthers mix and match up front, Burns is able to slide in as a strong-side edge-setter or weak-side pass rusher who is even capable of playing in shallow zones from time to time.

The 24-year-old former first-round pick has racked up back-to-back 9-sack seasons, but should reach double digits in that category in 2022.

95. Austin Ekeler — RB, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: NR)

Ekeler is one of the best multi-purpose backs and overall playmakers in the game today.

He’s a shifty, quick back who excels as a receiver, yet, with his stocky frame and low-to-the-ground rushing style, also adds elements of power and explosiveness to form a unique blend of player.

His 20 total touchdowns last season (12 rushing, eight receiving) tied Jonathan Taylor for the NFL’s best mark in 2021, as there have been just five 20-touchdown seasons in the league since 2009.

In the passing game specifically, Ekeler has proved his worth among the game’s best at his position. In the past three seasons, he leads all running backs in catches (216), receiving yards (2,043), receiving touchdowns (18) and YAC+ (+2.3), which is ‘yards after catch over expectation.’

Although Ekeler excels in the screen game and by running routes out of the backfield, he’s among the few backs in the league that can also play on the line of scrimmage as a pure receiver at times (think: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, etc.).

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A post shared by Austin Ekeler (@austinekeler)

As we approach the frenzy of Fantasy Football draft season, it’s also worth nothing Ekeler has been ranked in the top five of many preseason Fantasy rankings, including being slotted third by PFF, behind just Jonathan Taylor (a consensus No. 1) and Derrick Henry (a fantasy legend).

Lastly, although it doesn’t help or affect his ranking here, Ekeler is one of the most hard-working and humble players in the league. A bit of bragging/name dropping here on my end, but in my work as a producer/writer/researcher on the show Fair Game with Kristine Leahy for FS1 (2018-2020), Ekeler joined our show in the offseason prior to his breakout 2019 campaign, and he was one of the nicest and most delightful athletes/celebrities to work with. He introduced himself to everyone on staff (cameramen, interns, etc.) and was a pleasure to work with. Bravo, Austin! A great person and football player.

94. Jaylen Waddle — WR, Miami Dolphins (Last year: NR)

Last season, Jaylen Waddle made immediate strides at the pro level, showing early returns of what the Dolphins expected when they drafted him No. 6 overall in 2021.

Working within an inconsistent offense, the rookie caught 104 balls for 1,015 yards.

He can thrive as both a high-volume option underneath with game-breaking yards-after-catch potential, or as a speedy downfield threat, particularly on play-action, long crossers in the Kyle Shanahan-style scheme that new Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is bringing over.

As is also the case with Tyreek Hill when you get to his section — there is a lot riding on Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to throw the ball accurately downfield, but regardless of Tua’s performance, Waddle can thrive on schemed touches on pre-snap motion (a la Deebo Samuel) and also on screens.

Bottom line — Dolphins should look for ways to give Jaylen Waddle the football. They will.

93. Chris Godwin – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 66)

After the Buccaneers slapped the franchise tag on him for a second consecutive offseason, the team and Godwin moved quickly to agree on a three-year, $60 million deal with $40 million guaranteed.

Last season, he received a career-high 127 targets from Tom Brady and produced 1,103 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 98 catches (102 touches) in 14 games. An ACL tear ended his 2021 campaign, meaning he either won’t be ready, or won’t be 100% for Week 1, but when healthy, he’s one of the tougher Z/slot hybrid receivers in the league. His inside-outside versatility is complimented by his beefier frame (6-foot-1, 208 pounds) for his position. Yet, he’s as fast and quick as his peers with lighter frames.

92. Amari Cooper – WR, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 83)

Following the best two-year stretch of his career, Amari Cooper’s production dipped some in 2021 in Dallas. In the offseason he was dealt to Cleveland.

Entering his eighth season, Cooper is still just 28 years old.

He’s capable of another phenomenal two-year stretch in Cleveland, where his route-runninng, speed and physical frame (6-foot-1, 210 pound) should allow him to excel on downfield crossing routes in Kevin Stefanski’s Shanahan-ish offensive scheme, regardless of who is at quarterback.

Amari Cooper out of the break is already unfair – combine that with trying to guess which way he’s going off of his cut is nearly impossible. #Browns pic.twitter.com/f7y3tSi9pl

— MoreForYouCleveland (@MoreForYou_CLE) August 9, 2022

Where Cooper really shines is at the top of the route, where he’s able to leave defenders in the dust with his superb cutting ability (see above).

Seeing as Cleveland is equipped with a dangerous rushing attack featuring Nick Chubb and a top tier offensive line, Cooper should thrive on play-action shots this season.

91.Xavien Howard – CB, Miami Dolphins (Last year: 42)

Xavien Howard remains one of the most volatile Top 100 players on my list in terms of season-to-season, up-and-down movement in my rankings, but he also remains one of the best man-coverage and ball-hawking cornerbacks in the league heading into 2022.

His 2020 season was a career year, as he totaled 10 interceptions and was PFF‘s second-graded cornerback that season. His numbers dipped a bit in 2021 (5 INTs, PFF‘s 24th-graded CB), but at just 29 years old heading into this season, Miami made the wise move to lock up a top player at an important position with a lucrative five-year extension in April.

At 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, Howard uses his physicality and tenacity to win battles versus some of the league’s better pass catchers, which is as important as a non-QB role can get in an AFC crowded with top-end receiving talent.

90. Joe Mixon — RB, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: NR)

With the Bengals sporting an improved offensive line in 2022 via offseason moves, look for another big season from Joe Mixon, who is coming off a career year in 2021 for the reigning AFC champions.

Mixon was third in the NFL in carries (292), rushing yards (1,205) and rushing touchdowns (13) in 2021, while ranking second in rushing yards after contact (1,089). What’s more impressive is that Mixon often created his own rushing lanes via cutbacks and superb ball carrier vision, as the Bengals allowed a league-worst mark in ‘rushing attempts contacted in the backfield’ (52%).

“Mixon produces regardless of O-line play,” a NFC executive told ESPN. He will be key for them this year because they can’t let Burrow get hit as much.”

An AFC executive also described Mixon as a “complete back” who has always had the “explosive component.”

In 2021 Joe Mixon put on a clinic on how to run wide zone pic.twitter.com/Cv1b5Ww0Kd

— mike (@bengals_sans) July 19, 2022

Heading into Year 2 under Bengals Run Game Coordinator (and O-line coach) Frank Pollack’s ‘wide zone’ rushing scheme, there’s a chance Mixon produces even better numbers this season.

89. Antoine Winfield Jr. — S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: NR)

Winfield Jr. took a big leap in Year 2 patrolling the deep part of the field for the Buccaneers.

He was PFF‘s second-highest graded safety (89.5 grade) overall, and excelled in all facets of play compared to his peers. Among safeties, PFF graded him fourth in coverage (87.6), third in run defense (88.3) and fourth in pass rush as a blitzer (80.3).

He spent some time in the box and as a slot defender, and his 88.1 PFF grade in the slot (third among safeties in 2021), and 73.2 passer rating allowed in coverage speaks to his ability to play man coverage when needed.

Lastly, his 676 coverage snaps without allowing a touchdown gives Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles reassurance that he can dial up blitzes and unleash his roaming cover men underneath, including linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David, and newcomer veteran safety/nickel back/cornerback combo defender Logan Ryan.

If they’re able to sign him long-term as his rookie deal winds down, Winfield Jr. should be a franchise cornerstone for the Bucs throughout the decade.

88. Minkah Fitzpatrick – S, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 44)

Minkah Fitzpatrick’s first two seasons in Pittsburgh were an example of top-end safety play.

Mostly operating as a free safety, with some work in the slot as a man-coverage defender, Fitzpatrick fits the mold of a versatile playmaker in the backend to defend high-octane passing games.

“Above the neck game — he can play strong and free safety and has range,” an NFC exec told ESPN. “Started for Miami as an outside corner as a rookie. How many safeties can handle that?”

He struggled some last season, but a bounce-back year for the defensive-led Steelers is very much expected.

87. Marcus Williams — S, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: NR)

After five seasons with the Saints, the Ravens snagged Marcus Williams on a five-year, $70 million deal to solidify the backend of their defense.

“Once he gets going, he has the best range in the league,” an AFC defensive coach told ESPN. “Closing on the ball, he’s ridiculously good.”

“One of the better eye manipulators,” an NFL coordinator told ESPN . “He’s in a battle with the quarterback, and if you slip, he’s coming for the ball.”

The praise almost reminds me of former Raven Ed reed, who is widely known as the best free safety in NFL history.

The Ravens are one of the smartest and most calculated franchises in all of modern day sports. When they make a splash free agent signing, everyone should take notice.

Baltimore has long been a beacon of solid defensive football, particularly at the safety position. In addition to Reed, Baltimore has also had stints by Eric Weddle and all-time great Earl Thomas for a brief spell. Here, they’re hoping Williams becomes a franchise cornerstone for a new era.

This year, Baltimore should be among the league leaders in three-safety formations with athletic rookie first-round pick Kyle Hamilton playing close to the line of scrimmage as a linebacker/box safety hybrid, Chuck Clark manning the strong safety position as a ‘robber’ and man-coverage operator on tight ends, and Williams playing deep as a center fielder.

86.Terry McLaurin – WR, Washington Commanders (Last year: 74)

McLaurin followed up a 1,118-yard receiving campaign in 2020 with a 77-catch, 1,053-yard performance in 2021, along with five receiving touchdowns.

He’s a natural talent at receiver, utilizing his speed, quickness and elite hands to generate separation, and if not, come down with the football over a defender.

Since coming into the league in 2019, he leads the NFL in contested catches (26).

The Commanders offense will be a unit in flux this season under new quarterback Carson Wentz. Antonio Gibson provides a spark at running back, and the team is hopeful rookie second-round pick Jahan Dotson can provide production at the Z-receiver spot, while veteran Curtis Samuel can produce as a do-it-all force underneath as a pre-snap motion chess piece.

But none of that is a guarantee, leaving McLaurin as virtually the only proven receiving option for Wentz in Washington. He’s been thrown the football 264 times the last two years, and he should see the ball early and often once more in 2022.

85. J.C. Jackson — CB, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: NR)

Playing in a AFC West division ripe with top-end quarterbacks and receiving talent, the Los Angeles Chargers looked to free agency for resources defensively.

J.C. Jackson’s five-year, $82.5 million deal gives the Chargers a legitimate No. 1 cornerback capable of playing man-to-man or zone coverage in Brandon Staley’s two-high zone coverage ‘Quarters’ looks.

Jackson is a man-coverage, playmaking cornerback at heart.

He has the most interceptions (25) in the league since his rookie year in 2018, and his 48.0 passer rating allowed in coverage since 2019 is a NFL-best, as well.

In his final season with the Patriots, Jackson had a career year as the team’s lone top cornerback when Stephon Gilmore was traded to the Carolina Panthers, as he snagged eight interceptions and was graded by PFF as the seventh-best cornerback in football, and fifth-best in coverage.

Jackson is primed for a heavy workload on the perimeter this season, but he’s up to the task.

(Jackson had ankle surgery recently, but is expected to miss just the first game or two of the season).

84. Keenan Allen – WR, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 71)

Even entering his age-30 season, Keenan Allen remains one of the NFL’s very best route runners, on a short list with the likes of Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs.

One of the first iterations of the ‘Big’ slot receiver (possibly the first), Allen makes up for his lack of speed with phenomenal awareness and intuition in his cuts, along with a solid pair of hands and subtle quickness.

He snagged a career-high 106 catches for 1,138 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 157 targets (8th in the NFL) in 2021.

He should produce similar numbers in 2022, as Chargers gunslinging quarterback Justin Herbert will continue looking his way often.

83. Creed Humphrey — C, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: NR)

The Chiefs hit gold in the second round of last year’s draft when they selected center Creed Humphrey, who should be a physical presence for years in Kansas City.

“We want to be known as one of the most physically dominating lines in the league, and we have the guys who can do it,” Humphrey told the Chiefs’ in-house reporters.

“That’s our entire outlook. When teams play us, we want them to know that they’re playing a physical offensive line that finishes through the whistle. We’re excited to get to work on that.”

You just don't move Creed Humphrey.

It's science. #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/tHCShokyiZ

— Chris Roush (@chrisRroush) August 2, 2022

As a rookie, Humphrey was PFF‘s top-rated center both in overall play (91.8 grade) and run-blocking (93.1), while also grading third among his peers in pass protection.

As the Chiefs enter a new era of offense with Tyreek Hill in Miami and Travis Kelce aging, the physicality of the interior of the offensive line will increase in importance, seeing as the Chiefs should rely a bit more on inside-zone rushing concepts with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and newcomer Ronald Jones as the passing game )with new receivers) finds a groove.

82. Shaq Mason – OG, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: NR)

After losing starting guards Ali Marpet (retirement) and Alex Cappa (signed with Bengals in free agency) this offseason, the Buccaneers continued their recent aggressive offseason ways by acquiring Tom Brady’s old friend, Shaq Mason, from the Patriots for just a fifth-round pick.

Mason is a 6-foot-1, 310-pound mauler who played college ball at Georgia Tech, in their triple-option-heavy scheme. Since entering the NFL, he’s become one of the he best run-blocking guards in the league.

Since 2016, only Zack Martin has been graded higher by PFF among guards.

Last year, Mason was graded 4th among guards by PFF. Since 2016, PFF has graded him 4th, 4th, 1st (2018), 10th and 6th among his peers, before last season’s mark.

Since signing with the Bucs, Brady has enjoyed the scheme change to a downfield arial attack to an assortment of talented pass catchers. But still, the offense relies heavily on a punishing ground game with Brady under-center to eventually set up their play-action shots.

Mason, 29, is a perfect fit to open up rushing lanes for Tampa Bay power back Leonard Fournette. He’s primed for another big season up front, and the Bucs badly need it, with starting center Ryan Jensen slated to miss time (maybe the entire season) due to a training camp knee injury, and Tampa’s other projected starting guard, Aaron Stinnie, out for the year with a ACL/MCL tear suffered this preseason.

81.DeAndre Hopkins – WR, Arizona Cardinals (Last year: 25)

After a phenomenal first season with the Cardinals in 2020 (115 catches, 1,407 receiving yards, 6 TDs), DeAndre Hopkins was limited to just 10 games in 2021 due to a hamstring injury, followed by a MCL tear.

Still, he garnered eight touchdowns and showed glimpses of why he’s been one of the league’s best receivers over the past decade.

It’s always tough determining when a wide receiver will reach the cliff.

As it stands, I have Michael Thomas just off the list just two summers after I rated him as the 10th best player in the NFL.

So as a 30-year-old Hopkins recovers from his knee injury, and serves a six-game suspension to begin the season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, this feels like the right place to put him.

You can make the case that he still has the best hands in the NFL.

When he’s on the field, he remains a dangerous threat.

80. Stephon Gilmore – CB, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 41)

In last year’s list, I mentioned Gilmore has a good chance of continuing to be an elite-level cornerback in his early thirties, because his game his game is “less predicated on speed, and more so on press ability, quickness, technique, and physicality with opposing pass catchers.”

That still rings true in 2022, as he enters his age 32-season, but now Gilmore will need to adapt to the Colts’ fast-and-physical zone-coverage style of play.

Gilmore is best used as a man-coverage cornerback, but in Indianapolis, he’ll almost certainly play his fair share of Cover-2, Cover-3 and Cover-4 (Quarters) under head coach Matt Eberflus and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

Where Gilmore may be best suited, is in a mix of man and zone-match principles that have him matching receivers in the vicinity of his zone, much like man coverage.

Regardless, the Colts defense will call on him to get physical with press coverage, and Gilmore should still excel there.

The fit of Gilmore in this Indy defense is fascinating.

79. Christian McCaffrey – RB, Carolina Panthers (Last year: 35)

When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is one of the best offensive playmakers in the NFL. But after playing just three games in 2020, injuries forced him to play in just seven contests in 2021.

But even in just 10 games over the last two seasons, he’s shown — in spurts — just how valuable he is to the Panthers.

Despite a smaller sample size in 2021, McCaffrey ranked 4th in the league last season in yards from scrimmage per game (112.1).

In 2022, the Panthers will likely start Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but the offense will certainly revolve around C-Mac, as long as he’s healthy.

Christian McCaffrey does it all 😮‍💨#PFNTCTour | #Panthers

pic.twitter.com/pnb3gtHZcK

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 8, 2022

From inside zone rushes, to underneath ‘option’ routes and split-out-wide, pure receiver route-running in the passing game, McCaffrey is still a unique, never-seen-before talent in this league.

Still at just 26 years old, there’s time for him to re-write his career, if he can help provide some durability.

78.Devin White – LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 36)

I went with back-to-back Bucs here in these two slots, with athletic linebacker Devin White, a hero in Tampa’s Super Bowl 55 run, dipping a bit in this year’s rankings.

White has never been liked by well-respected analytics sites like PFF, but outside of maybe San Francisco (Fred Warner), Indianapolis (Shaquille Leonard) and maybe still with Bobby Wagner in L.A., you just won’t find that kind of closing speed, explosiveness and instinctual playmaking from the linebacker position. And that’s an essential type of player to have defensively at the second level in the modern day game.

White is also an effective blitzer, tallying 9 sacks in 2020, before offenses were able to account for the skill in 2021. causing that number to drop to 3.5 last season.

What you get with White is an aggressively athletic playmaking linebacker who is fearless versus any opposing offense. Like cornerbacks such as Trevon Diggs and Marcus Peters, you take the good with the bad when it comes to whiffing on a few plays.

In Tampa Bay, White is able to go full throttle in Todd Bowles’ aggressive defensive scheme since fellow linebacker Lavonte David is the more calculated veteran who provides more support in the run game, allowing White to roam.

At just 24 years old entering this season, White has plenty of time to become more consistently efficient.

77. Najee Harris – RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: NR)

For decades, many NFL offenses revolved around a punishing ground game led by a do-it-all, ‘bell cow’ running back. In the 2000s, bigger backs such as Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson and others signified team’s affinity for a workhorse-type ball-carrier who could touch the ball 25 or 30 times a game, in every game.

That era led way to a change to smaller, faster running backs, which then led to the passing game becoming vastly more important, like you see today, causing teams to devalue running backs in the open market, and instead choosing for a ‘committee’ approach between Day 2 and Day 3 draft picks, and bargain-level veterans.

Of course, in the 2010s, backs such as Adrian Peterson, and now, Derrick Henry, were and are all-time talents that invoke a bit of nostalgia to earlier eras. But the ‘bellcow’ back had mostly become a thing of the past.

However, in recent seasons, bigger backs such as Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb are starting to sprout into top-end ball carriers worthy of a heavy workload each game. As is with fashion, the NFL can often be cyclical.

Najee Harris is in the mold of Henry, Taylor and Chubb as a bell cow back worthy of being the feature presence of a modern-day NFL offense.

Practice ended at 3:50. Over an hour later what is Najee Harris doing? Running hills. pic.twitter.com/ZcjplV8rf5

— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) August 17, 2022

Of course, a good-to-great quarterback and above-average passing game is needed to compete for a Super Bowl in present day, but as the Steelers usher in a new era with either rookie Kenny Pickett or veteran Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, it will be Harris as the featured presence for Pittsburgh’s offense in 2022.

Last season, as a rookie, Harris ranked second in the NFL in carries (307) and fourth in rushing yards (1,200) while not registering a single fumble.

Harris also led all running backs with 74 receptions, showcasing his skills as a do-it-all presence.

What drives Najee Harris?

I spent a day with him in Houston trying to figure that out:

"If I'm the last one on the field, I know something deep down, maybe it's subliminal, I'm working harder than everybody."https://t.co/rO1BYV9uvO

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) August 10, 2022

Harris has worked hard this offseason to prepare his body for the big season to come. Much of his time has been spent at a gym in Houston co-owned by the previously-mentioned Adrian Peterson (see article in tweet above).

“He’s a big-bodied kid,” Peterson told ESPN‘s Brooke Pyror. “I caught myself a couple times looking at him. I’m like, golly, this boy’s thick. He’s not fat at all. He’s just big-boned. He’s thick and strong, and those big quads. Those big legs and upper body. He’s well-put together. He’s like the perfect dimension for a running back.”

Harris will need to keep his strength for the upcoming season, as he should be relied upon heavily.

Last year, he led all running backs in snaps per game (54.6) and total percentage of offensive snaps (84%) by a wide margin. NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor was second in both categories with 42.9 snaps per game, while playing in 69 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps.

Harris is listed at 6-foot-1, 232 pounds on many sites, which was his weight a year ago before the 2021 season. But he announced he weighed 244 at mandatory mini-camp this past Spring, and plans to play at a heavier weight, but with less fat and more muscle.

Whatever his weight, Harris should be among the league leaders in carries, rushing yards and overall touches in 2022, as he blossoms into the type of star running back many watched for decades before the modern passing game took hold.

76. Patrick Surtain II – CB, Denver Broncos (Last year: NR)

At just 22 years old entering 2022, Patrick Surtain II enters this season as one the game’s brightest young potential stars.

Like any rookie, he had a few minor pains adjusting to the pro game last year, but as the season progressed, the 6-foot-2, 202-pound perimeter cornerback showed why he is the perfect specimen for the modern game.

On the cutting room floor of the Diggs article were a lot of beautiful clips of elite man coverage.

Patrick Surtain II is a freak, man. Stepped in the door as a top 10 CB in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/JPnXia2UtI

— Diante Lee (@DianteLeeFB) January 7, 2022

Playing within an AFC West that has added Davante Adams (Raiders) to a divisional pass-catching group that already features Mike Williams and Keenan Allen with the Chargers, Surtain II will have ample opportunity to shine on big stage and produce what will most likely be a massive Year 2 jump in efficiency and overall play.

Between himself, Texans rookie first-round selection Derek Stingley Jr. (No. 3 overall pick), and Jets rookie first-round pick Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (No. 4 overall pick), the cornerback position is beginning to produce generational prospects to take the torch from Jalen Ramsey, Stephon Gilmore and others as the 2020’s move along.

75. Corey Linsley – C, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 85)

At age 31, Corey Linsley enters 2022 as one of the game’s best interior offensive lineman.

After seven seasons with the Green Bay Packers that included a First-team All-Pro berth in 2020, Linsley took to free agency and signed a massive deal with the Chargers in 2021.

He did not disappoint, as he was given Second-team All-Pro honors for his play.

Linsley has been a consistent force for much of his career. PFF has graded him in the top seven among centers in six of his eight seasons in the league, including a career-best two-year stretch over the last two seasons that placed him first among centers in 2021, and second last season (85.7 grade).

In addition to his genius overall play, Linsley’s game can be broken down to showcase how much of a complete interior offensive lineman he is. He ranked first among centers in pass blocking and fifth in run blocking last season.

“I think for what they do, he’s the best center because he’s so smart and instinctive that he makes life easier for Herbert,” a NFL source told ESPN.

“He might not be able to overpower like other guards and centers, but his technique is top notch, and you’re going to play a clean game with him offensively.”

As the Chargers look to build up an offensive line that needs to quickly progress for the team to reach the lofty aspirations set out for them, Linsley will help lead a group that features promising young left tackle Rashawn Slater and rookie first-round pick Zion Johnson out of Boston College at right guard.

74.Matt Ryan – QB, Atlanta Falcons (Last year: 56)

After 14 seasons with the Falcons, Matt Ryan, 37, becomes the latest in a string of memorable veteran quarterbacks heading to Indianapolis to pilot a promising team with a solid offensive line, punishing ground game and fast and hungry defense.

With the Tennessee Titans potentially taking a step back, the Colts have potential to win the AFC South, and make a playoff run. A lot of that will depend on Matt Ryan’s ability to elevate a young receiving core that is a bit of a question mark.

But Ryan is capable of propping up an offense, even if his prime years are likely behind him.

His numbers dipped last year as the Falcons struggled through the first true season of what is essentially a tear-it-down, full-on rebuild. But in Indy, Ryan’s still-intact accuracy and solid decision-making should compliment Jonathan Taylor and the running game enough for him to have a moderately-successful campaign in 2022, at least.

73. Jessie Bates III – S, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: 63)

After a breakout 2020 season that saw him earn Second-team All-Pro honors while being graded as PFF‘s top safety, Bates’ play came a bit down to earth in 2021, but he still solidified himself as one of the NFL’s best safeties, particularly in the Bengals’ run to Super Bowl 56.

In the playoffs, Bates deflected six passes and snagged two crucial interceptions.

He plays some in the box and slot but he’s predominantly the Bengals’ free-roaming free safety tasked with tracking the ball. That leads to big plays such as his overtime deflection of a deep Patrick Mahomes pass intended for Tyreek Hill that led to a Bengals interception in Cincinnati’s shocking AFC Championship Game win last January.

Bates is currently under the franchise tag, and is looking for a new deal that would likely come his way from the Bengals, or another team, if he is to have another great season in 2022.

72. Ryan Ramczyk – OT, New Orleans Saints (Last year: 62)

Ramczyk, 28, remains at the top of his game as an elite NFL tackle heading into 2022.

He was PFF‘s top-graded tackle in 2019 and was named an AP All-Pro (first or second team) in three straight seasons from 2018 to 2020.

He had another solid season manning the right tackle spot for the Saints in 2021, leading all tackles in pass block win rate (95%), and continuing his play as one of the league’s most stout run blockers.

With Terron Armstead now in Miami playing left tackle (and his replacement, rookie first-round pick Trevor Penning, missing the start of the season with an injury), Ramczyk’s presence on the right side for New Orleans is as important as ever.

71. Derek Carr – QB, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: NR)

Heading into Year 1 under new head coach Josh McDaniels, Derek Carr was awarded a three-year, $121.5 million contract extension (with a no trade clause) running through 2025, to remain the Raiders starting quarterback for the immediate future.

In 2022, Carr will operate in a system that traditionally revolves around “heady” play from the quarterback. Pre-snap ability, awareness, decision-making and pinpoint accuracy will be what’s most important for Carr this season.

I view Carr as just a Top-12 to Top-15 quarterback overall (which is right around where PFF has graded him over the past three years), but also as a Top-5 passer.

He throws one of the league’s most beautiful footballs, particularly downfield.

This season, I expect Carr to thrive under McDaniels’ tutelage, while passing to one of the league’s very best receiving cores (Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller).

The implementation of a power rushing attack under running back Josh Jacobs (Raiders also added former Patriots lead-blocking fullback Jakob Johnson) should also ease some of the burden Carr has usually carried in past seasons in Las Vegas wins and losses.

Las Vegas will operate under what may be the best division in football this season in the AFC West. And under McDaniels, Carr and a talented overall roster, I expect the Raiders to be right in the thick of things when it comes to the division crown.

70. Justin Simmons – S, Denver Broncos (Last year: 78)

Justin Simmons is one of the NFL’s best safeties, and a perfect example of versatility needed in that position in an evolving league equipped with high-octane passing games.

At 6-foot-2, 202 pounds, Simmons is built both like a rangy safety and perimeter cornerback. He plays most of his snaps as a deep free safety, but at times he also play in the box, and in man coverage in the slot.

“He can play deep in coverage, helps with the run and he can cover in man coverage on a tight end or a running back,” an AFC scout told ESPN. “He’s got the ideal range and size to handle everything.”

“If you’re judging safety play by who’s the most complete and checks the most boxes, he’s that guy for me,” an AFC defensive coach said of Simmons, in a piece that had NFL execs, coaches and scouts ranking him as the league’s top safety heading into this season.

Simmons’ best season, by PFF‘s standards, remains 2019, where he was graded as the NFL’s second best safety and was named Second-team All-Pro. But last season, he still put on a show, grabbing five interceptions (tied for league lead among safeties) and swatting away 12 passes (tied for second among safeties), while being named Second-team All-Pro once more. He also leads all safeties with 53.5 ‘disrupted dropbacks’ (interceptions, pass breakups, sacks) over the last three years.

He’ll turn 29 this November, putting him squarely in the prime of his career, where he’ll help lead a Broncos team with loftier expectations under new quarterback Russell Wilson.

69. DeMarcus Lawrence – EDGE, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 84)

DeMarcus Lawrence enters his age-30 season as a player who is only getting better.

Earlier in his career, he was seen as mostly a pass rusher, but Lawrence has turned into a complete EDGE defender in recent seasons.

He was the top-graded EDGE in run defense last season by PFF (92.5), and despite a dip in sack numbers in the past few seasons, he’s still been rated as the fourth-best overall EDGE defender in the game both in 2020 and 2021.

As Micah Parsons ascends as a superstar linebacker/EDGE hybrid for Dallas, Lawrence will continue to assist as a veteran co-anchor of the Cowboys’ quickly-improving defensive front seven.

68. Trey Hendrickson – EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: NR)

Last year, Trey Hendrickson surprised many by becoming one of the few high-priced free agents in recent years to make an immediate, worthy impact on his new team.

He followed up a 13.5-sack season with the Saints in 2020 with a 14-sack campaign last year with the Bengals after signing a four-year, $60 million deal with Cincinnati in the 2021 offseason.

He was especially productive in the playoffs, where he upped his game and became an absolute menace as a pass rusher, particularly in the AFC title game comeback win in Kansas City.

“Instinctive, tough and plays his ass off,” an NFC executive told ESPN. “Has rush savvy.”

67. D.K. Metcalf – WR, Seattle Seahawks (Last year: 30)

He scored a career-high 12 touchdowns last year, but the rest of his numbers were down as the Seahawks suffered through a rough 2021 campaign with a mildly disgruntled Russell Wilson at quarterback.

When Seattle finally obliged Wilson’s trade request this offseason, it was worth wondering whether or not the Seahawks would deal Metcalf before a contract year to further accelerate the deep rebuild.

Instead, Seattle gave him a three-year, $72 million extension ($58.2 million guaranteed) to keep him in the northwest for the foreseeable future.

As a 6-foot-4, 235-pound receiver who runs a 4.33 40-yard dash with a 40.5-inch vertical leap, he remains one of the most freakish athletes the league has ever seen.

Heading into 2022, and still just 24 years old, he’s still arguably the most dangerous perimeter offensive threat from a physical standpoint.

In 2023, there’s a chance one of the top college QB prospects of this season — Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) — is throwing him passes in Seattle, but for this year, it’ll most likely be Drew Lock or Geno Smith.

That limits Metcalf’s projected output this season, but his value as a ridiculous talent remains intact.

66. Alvin Kamara – RB, New Orleans Saints (Last year: 32)

Since 2017, no running back has scored more touchdowns (68), received more targets (476) or hauled in more receptions (373) than Alvin Kamara.

As a back who can rush the football inside, outside and line up as an actual wide receiver, he’s a matchup nightmare for defenses.

The two-time All-Pro’s play wasn’t up-to-par with his recent excellence last year (career-worst 3.7 yards per carry), but he should be in line for a bounce-back campaign this season. That is, if he’s available. There’s a chance Kamara faces some discipline this season for an alleged assault.

65. Joe Thuney – OG, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 70)

Since coming into the league in 2016, Joe Thuney has started and played in every game (including playoffs) for the Patriots (2016-2020) and Chiefs (2021).

His durability is matched only by his pass blocking.

Sheesh, Joe Thuney pic.twitter.com/kRlofkcKMY

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) March 29, 2022

He was PFF‘s highest-graded pass-blocking offensive lineman (90.5 grade) in 2022, and he also led all guards in pass block win rate (96.6%), making good on the top-end contract Kansas City signed him to in the 2021 offseason.

Thuney should only improve in Year 2 with the Chiefs.

64. Wyatt Teller — OG, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 59)

After a breakout 2020 season that saw him grade out as the top offensive lineman in run blocking and overall play by PFF, Wyatt Teller backed that up with yet another Second-team All-Pro season in which PFF graded him as the league’s fifth-best guard in overall play, and fourth-best guard in run blocking.

His effot halfway through last season earned him a four-year, $56.8 million contract extension from Cleveland.

The 6-foot-4, 314-pound mammoth is a ferocious run blocker equipped with quickness and athleticism for the Browns’ powerful outside-zone rushing attack under head coach Kevin Stefanski.

He’s also an improving pass blocker, which is a needed skill for the Browns’ play-action passing concepts revolving around outside zone runs.

63. Joel Bitonio — OG, Cleveland Browns (Last year: NR)

The run of guards continues with yet the other starting guard in Cleveland.

At 6-foot-4, 320 pounds, Joel Bitonio is almost identical in size to Wyatt Teller. And although Teller is naturally a bit of a better run blocker, Bitonio is the more complete overall offensive lineman.

Bitonio was actually graded as the best guard in the NFL in run blocking (92.5 grade) and overall play (93.6) last season, and was named First-team All-Pro after three straight seasons of being named Second-team All-Pro. He also has went the last five season without missing a game.

“Rare combo of quickness, pull ability, one-on-one pass pro ability and power,” an NFL personnel director told ESPN. “Excellent second-level run-blocker. Does everything at a high level.”

The 30-year-old is as complete as a guard there is right now after Quenton Nelson. I was wrong to leave him in the first 25 players off my list last season. I expect him to compete for another All-Pro honor in 2022.

62. Dalvin Cook – RB, Minnesota Vikings (Last year: 38)

He missed four games last year, and was mostly held out of the end zone (six touchdowns) compared to the two seasons prior (30 TDs), but he’s still one of the most dangerous cutback, outside-zone rushers in the league.

He ran for 1,159 rushing yards in 13 games while averaging 4.7 yards per carry in 2021. In fact, he’s averaged 4.7 yards per carry throughout his five-season career to this point. He was also second in the league among running backs in yards per contact (779) last season.

In 2022, under new head coach Kevin O’Connell, Cook may need to adjust slightly to a Sean McVay-style, Shanahan-y system.

“He’s great and can get even better with discipline as a runner and growing as a third-down receiver,” a NFL coach told ESPN of Cook.

“I think he’ll show a more all-around game in a new offense.”

The offense won’t change too much from the multi-tight end, power zone-rushing scheme his former offensive coordinator-turned Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski left behind three seasons ago.

There will still be a bevy of zone-rushing opportunities in which Cook will thrive in, meaning he should produce as a top-end running back if he can stay healthy.

61. Bobby Wagner – LB, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 27)

Bobby Wagner, 32, took a slight step back last season with a Seahawks team that wasn’t up to snuff.

But do you know what a step back means in Wagner’s world? It’s going from being PFF‘s second-highest graded linebacker and being named First-team All-Pro for the fifth year in a row in 2020, to being named Second-team All-Pro as the 15th-highest graded linebacker in the game (by PFF).

Translation: Wagner is still damn good.

After the Seahawks granted his release, he signed a five-year, $50 million deal (up to $65 million with incentives) with the Los Angeles Rams.

The deal is a classic Rams-style, new-age contract that won’t likely see him play there through 2026, but for this season, Wagner should bring most of his skillset to a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.

Now, they add a second-level defensive star to form a trio.

Wagner still has the range and intuition to defend the pass, and he’s actually shown that he’s continually improving in run defense in his later years.

Considering the wear and tear — he’s played more snaps (6,047) and has more tackles (905) than any NFL defensive player since 2016 — his streak of eight consecutive years of being named an All-Pro may be in jeopardy, but he should still provide the Rams with excellent linebacker play.

60. David Bakhtiari – OT, Green Bay Packers (Last year: 34)

His string of five consecutive seasons of being named an All-Pro ended in 2021 due to a late-2020 season ACL tear that caused him to miss every game but the Packers’ Week 18 contest versus the Detroit Lions (he played 18 snaps).

When healthy, he’s the linchpin of the Packers’ offensive line, Aaron Rodgers’ blindside protector at left tackle, and one of the best offensive lineman in the game.

The return of David Bakhtiari in motion pictures. pic.twitter.com/Edz0Z5kMCl

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) August 21, 2022

The soon-to-be 31-year-old seems healthy and ready to go for 2022, which is a great sign for Green Bay’s chances in what looks to be an up-for-grabs NFC this season.

59. Cameron Jordan – EDGE, New Orleans Saints (Last year: 54)

Last year, at age 32, Cameron Jordan produced his second-best career single-season sack total (12.5), while PFF graded him as the third-best run-defending EDGE in the game. He also topped all EDGE defenders in run-stop win rate (33.5%), and was second among his positional peers in ‘disrupted dropbacks’ (22.5).

To summarize — Jordan was virtually better in all facets of his game compared to the previous year.

Recently, he’s had double digit sacks in four of his last five seasons, and has been graded as a Top-10 EDGE defender by PFF in each of the last six seasons.

In 2022, Jordan should still command double teams at age 33, which is highly impressive. This should allow the younger Marcus Davenport to feast in 1-on-1 battles on the opposite edge of the Saints’ defensive front.

58. Jonathan Allen – DI, Washington Commanders (Last year: NR)

After spending the first four seasons of his career as solid run defender with little fanfare, Jonathan Allen finally broke through in Year 5.

The former No. 17 overall pick (2017) blossomed into one of the league’s best overall interior pass rushers last season, finishing second among defensive tackles in QB pressures (34) and sacks (9), and third in both PFF‘s pass rush grade (90.9) and overall grade (84.8) for interior defenders.

Over the last few years, Allen has added a bevy of pass rush moves to get to the quarterback, but his main strength continues to be his power as a 6-foot-3, 300-pound bully in the middle.

Playing next to a fellow former Alabama first-round pick (2018) in Daron Payne, and with Montez Sweat (2019 first-round pick) and the mighty Chase Young (No. 2 overall pick in 2020) on the edges outside (Young is slated to miss at least the first four games of the season on PUP), Washington has a defensive front (LB Jamin Davis was a 2021 first-rounder) littered with talented young players with potential.

57. Rashawn Slater – OT, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: NR)

In Corey Linsley’s blurb above, we mentioned the Chargers’ efforts to build up a shaky offensive line over the last two seasons by drafting Boston College guard Zion Johnson in Round 1 of this past draft, and signing Linsley and drafting Rashawn Slater in the first round in 2021.

Last year as a rookie, Slater exceeded expectations immediately as a No. 13 overall pick, earning Second-team All-Pro honors.

As the Chargers ascend from just a talented roster with a talented quarterback, to a complete roster worthy of a Super Bowl run, it’ll become increasingly apparent just how important it was for the Chargers to hit on their pick of Slater last year.

Just as he did at left tackle last season, expect Slater to protect Justin Herbert’s blind side like a seasoned pro, for years to come.

56. Darren Waller — TE, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: 57)

Waller’s transition from practice squad wide receiver earlier in his career, to Top-5 NFL tight end, is one of the NFL’s best stories. The off-field hardship he was able to overcome during this stretch just further shows how mentally tough he is.

Still, despite the switch to a monstrous build of 6-foot-6, 255 pounds, Waller is an athletic play-making pass catcher at heart.

Considering new head coach Josh McDaniels’ past Patriots schemes revolving around tight ends who can catch and block in-line (think: Rob Gronkowski), it’s worth wondering where Waller will fit in Las Vegas in 2022.

But good news is, Waller actually repped out at 401 inline snaps in 2021, compared to 147 in the slot, and 129 snaps out wide. He may be unspectacular as a blocker, but he seems at least capable at the skill.

He missed six games last season, causing his numbers to dip pretty dramatically, but if he can stay on the field, he’s still one of the more versatile matchup-dominating weapons on offense in the NFL.

55. A.J. Brown – WR, Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: 37)

He began his career with two phenomenal seasons in Tennesee before a chest injury forced him to miss a few games last year, limiting him some in the volume stats department. Still, PFF graded him as a top-5 receiver in receiving and overall play.

Then, seemingly unhappy with his second contract negotiations (or lack thereof), or the Titans, or both, Brown was dealt to the Eagles on draft day for the No. 18 overall pick (Tennessee also sent Philadelphia a third-round pick). Brown subsequently signed a four-year, $100 million extension ($57 new guaranteed) shortly after.

When at his best, Brown is perhaps the best YAC (yards after contact) receiver in the league due to his 6-foot-1, 226-pound frame and ability to break tackles on posts, seams and in-breaking routes in the play-action passing game.

Will Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, predominantly a shotgun offense, get him the ball in the same way? Will Brown line up as a “Big” slot often, or will he spend almost all of his time on the perimeter with his new squad?

A.J. Brown is ridiculous 😳

(🎥 @rkuestnernbc10)pic.twitter.com/UUElkP8g5A

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) August 24, 2022

Wherever he lines up, he should thrive, as he’ll look to prove himself further with a new squad. There may be some growing pains, but with other talented pass-catchers (DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert) in the Philly offense, there should be enough matchups for Brown to exploit all over the field.

54. Derwin James – S, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: NR)

Derwin James is back on the list after just missing the cut last season. I had him at No. 53 in my 2020 list, and No. 30 the season before.

Let’s face it, when healthy, Derwin James is one of the more versatile players in the entire league.

He can function as a free safety, a strong safety, a psuedo-linebacker in the box (who covers and blitzes), or as a man-coverage defender in the slot. He can cover big receivers, fast receivers, shifty receivers, athletic tight ends or running backs in the passing game. He’s the epitome of the new-age type of safety that we’re beginning to see like Ravens 2022 first-round pick Kyle Hamilton.

But health is a major factor in how the rest of James’ career will play out.

In 2021, James was again healthy, earning First-team All-Pro honors for a second time after missing all of 2020 to heal from a torn meniscus.

During this preseason, the Chargers rewarded James, 26, by making him the highest-paid safety in NFL history with a four-year, $76.4 million extension ($42 million in guaranteed), showcasing their faith in a potential franchise cornerstone on a uber-talented roster.

53. Vita Vea – DI, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 86)

Vea enters 2022 as the NFL’s top nose tackle, and also one of the very best 3-4-style defensive tackles. His ability to stuff the run by two-gapping and beating double teams in the run game is top level. And despite his massive size (6-foot-4, 347 pounds), Vea is more than just a “push-the-pile” type of pass rusher. He’s a legitimate threat as an athletic interior rusher who can bulldoze his way to the quarterback.

“The way he can manhandle centers and can also play on third down and be effective when fresh really impresses me,” an NFC exec told ESPN. “I wouldn’t want to go against him.”

“He’s a top guy for me, and it’s not that close,” an NFL scouting coordinator said to ESPN. “He’s got raw power that you can’t teach.”

Vea is a rare three-down player for his size. He can also line up in different positions and can play different techniques along the Buccaneers’ defensive front.

His play over the first four years of his career earned him a four-year, $73 million extension with the Bucs this past January, and his best is likely yet to come.

52. Chase Young – EDGE, Washington Football Team (Last year: 24)

The 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year followed up his fantastic Year 1 campaign with a disappointing Year 2 effort in which he registered just 1.5 sacks in nine games before suffering an ACL tear that caused him to miss the rest of the season, and has him on Reserve/PUP (out for at least first four games of regular season) to begin this season.

When healthy and motivated, the former No. 2 overall pick is a rare breed of at the EDGE position. His combination of athleticism, overall talent, potential, and size puts him in an elite group of peers that basically only includes Myles Garrett and the Bosa brothers.

Playing in a defensive front seven littered with first-round picks, including a member on this list in the aforementioned Jonathan Allen, Young will have ample opportunity for a bounce-back campaign if he can return to the field by Halloween.

I’m doing a little bit of projecting here based off his potential talent, and his rookie season, but Young should improve when he suits back up.

51. Mark Andrews – TE, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: NR)

Andrews has been one of the game’s best tight ends for the past two to three seasons, but it was this past season, Year 4 for him, where he enjoyed a Kool-Aid Man-busting-through-the-wall-type breakout season.

Last season, he led all tight ends in targets (153), receiving yards (1,361), and PFF grade (91.5), and he also was tied for first among his position mates in receiving scores (9).

He’s Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, and is a key part in the Ravens’ unique offense involving heavy packages with new-age wrinkles with their electric quarterback.

PFF graded him third among tight ends in receiving and run-blocking. He’s a complete package at the position.

With athletic rookie receiving tight end Isaiah Likely (fourth-round pick) also in the fold, the Ravens would be wise to pair the two on the field for ample snaps. They could even inlcude blocking bullies Nick Boyle and Pat Ricard on the field with them. Regardless, Andrews should dominate once more this year as one of the game’s best true Y-tight ends, along with George Kittle.

50.Marlon Humphrey – CB, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: 45)

Last year was a bit of a down year for the Ravens’ top cornerback. But really, that was a microcosm of the 2021 Baltimore Ravens in general.

Baltimore began the season 8-3 before Lamar Jackson and many others, including Humphrey (torn pectoral muscle), went down with injuries. The Ravens hung tough in several games down the stretch (they lost five games by a combined eight points (!), with one game going to OT), but ultimately finished the year on a six-game losing streak, finishing 8-9.

What was more odd than the losing streak for one of the most well-run franchises in North American sport, was Baltimore’s putrid rating in one of the NFL’s most renowned efficiency metrics — Football Outsiders‘ DVOA.

Baltimore ranked 28th in defensive DVOA, their second-worst mark in franchise history. They also were dead last in passing yards per game allowed (278.9), which is shocking.

Baltimore fired defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale (now NYG defensive coordinator) after the season, but I think it’s safe to say last year was an incredibly-unlucky, aberration of season for the Ravens.

Marlon Humphrey, who was on pace for a down year even before his injury, is poised for a major bounce-back campaign in 2022, much like his team.

With fellow Top 100 list teammate Marcus Williams now in the fold as a patrolling, deep safety, Humphrey should feel even more comfortable in man-coverage assignments in Cover-1, as well as Cover-3 looks.

49. Cameron Heyward – DI, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 55)

I say it just about every year on this list, but considering former Patriots great Richard Seymour was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame last month, I will mention it again — Cameron Heyward is the 2010s version of Richard Seymour. He really is the closest thing as a massive-yet-athletic interior presence who can dominate either playing 3-4-style defensive end or shades of a 4-3-style defensive tackle.

But as I write my third list of the 2020s, a new decade, Heyward somehow seems to be improving with age.

Last year, at age 32, he played in every game, registering career highs in run stuffs (13) and passes defended (9), and notching 10 sacks while grading out as the second-best interior defender by PFF for the second time in three seasons, and grading first among his peers in run defense (90.0 PFF grade).

It was the third time in the last five seasons that he’s been named a First-team All-Pro.

He’ll have to slow down at some point, but just like Cameron Jordan on this list (and perhaps J.J. Watt, when healthy), Heyward continually defies the odds as an elderly versatile defensive lineman.

48. Jaire Alexander – CB, Green Bay Packers (Last year: 26)

He was PFF‘s top-graded cornerback in pass coverage and overall play in 2020, while also being named a First-team All-Pro. Last season, a shoulder injury in Week 4 caused him to miss the rest of the regular season, before he returned in the playoffs for the Packers’ home loss to the 49ers.

Still, the Packers are confident enough in him that they gave him a four-year, $84 million extension, making him the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL.

Jaire Alexander is ELITE 🔒 pic.twitter.com/VSBlu9Yovo

— PFF (@PFF) May 17, 2022

He’s one of the most technical stars in the NFL, playing the cornerback position as crisp as it can be done, similarly to a top-end route-running receiver.

“He’s urgent, aggressive in coverage, great transition speed and change of direction,” an NFL personnel evaluator told ESPN.

“Has great backfield vision in zone coverage. Ball skills. Plays with a physical element.”

“He’s just so smooth in everything he does,” an AFC executive said to ESPN. “How he plays should be taught.”

As Rodgers has aged, Green Bay has built up one of the NFL’s best defenses in the past year or two, even to the detriment of the offense (Davante Adams departure). Alexander is one of the key pieces of the defense that the Packers front office seems to be betting on to get Green Bay Bay back to the Super Bowl.

47. Tristan Wirfs – OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: NR)

Being a former Iowa Hawkeye offensive lineman selected in the first round (No. 13 overall pick in 2020), it’s no surprise Tristan Wirfs is already a succesfful offensive lineman, but it’s the degree of success, and after just two seasons, that is highly impressive.

At just 23-years-old, and coming off a First-team All-Pro season, Wirfs is one of the league’s bright, young superstars.

He’s a bit better at pass blocking than run blocking, but is good enough at the latter that he’ll likely become dominant at that as well.

At 6-foot-5, 320 pounds, Wirfs is uber-athletic.

There’s a video of him that went around during the 2020 NFL Draft lead-up, of him jumping out of a pool and landing on his feet, which is insanity for his size.

In an offense that just saw Tom Brady lead at age 44, it’s good to know that Wirfs is protecting him from monstrous edge rushers up front as the Bucs sturdy right tackle.

He’s been battling an oblique injury in training camp, but should be good to go in Week 1.

46. Khalil Mack – EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 14)

There’s fair concern whether or not 31-year-old Khalil Mack will be close to the same player with the Chargers this year.

He’s coming off of season-ending foot surgery that caused him to miss nine games last season in a campaign in which PFF graded him outside the top six EDGE defenders for just the second time in his eight-year career.

But playing opposite Joey Bosa this season after being traded to the Chargers, there’s now opportunity for one more monster season for the four-time All-Pro. This talented Chargers need him to flourish if they are to reach their lofty goals for this season, and head coach Brandon Staley, Mack’s outside linebackers coach in his first year with the Bears, will know exactly how to utilize him.

45. Von Miller – EDGE, Buffalo Bills (Last year: 67)

It had been a few seasons since we had seen Von Miller produce like a top-end edge rusher, but after he was dealt to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in midseason, he put on another Hall-of-Fame-worthy postseason performance with four sacks down the stretch of the Rams’ title run.

He was efficiently great all season long last year, with PFF grading him third among all EDGE defenders (second in run defense, first in pass coverage).

Normally known for his speed demon type flash and bend ass a pass rusher, Miller was also stout against the run last year.

This offseason, Miller, 33, joined this year’s Super Bowl favorite, the Buffalo Bills, on a fluffed-up six-year, $120 million deal (can essentially be just three years and $52 million for Buffalo).

The Bills are truly going all-in for this next season or two, and Miller provides them with an all-time talent on the outside to help make some of the many talented quarterbacks in the AFC uncomfortable this season.

44. Nick Chubb – RB, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 58)

When looking at the Browns’ stacked offensive line and Shanahan-ish, outside-zone rushing scheme under Kevin Stefanski, it’d be easy think that Nick Chubb has been propped up, in a way.

But make no mistake, he’s one of the league’s best running backs for a reason.

The only running backs on my list ahead of Chubb are Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.

Few running backs run the outside zone better than Chubb. As opposed to Dalvin Cook’s lightning-quick cut-back ability and ball carrier vision on wide-zone looks, Chubb packs the power with explosiveness on his cut-back runs, usually right through defenders (he was second in the NFL in 2021 with 3.0 yards per contact).

Nick Chubb: 233 missed tackles forced on runs since 2018

1st among RBs 💪 pic.twitter.com/7u1mmK8vWy

— PFF (@PFF) July 18, 2022

Chubb has averaged over five yards per carry in each of his four seasons in the NFL, despite carrying the ball a minimum of 190 times in each campaign.

He followed up a 1,494-yard, full season in 2019 with two seasons averaging 5.6 and 5.5 yards per carry for a combined 2,326 rushing yards, despite missing seven games. Last year, he second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,259) despite missing three games,

PFF loves him. Among running backs since entering the NFL in 2018, he’s been graded first, first, fourth and seventh, and he’s was graded as the third-best back in pass-blocking (an important, under-looked attribute), just one year after leading all of his peers in that category.

With Jacoby Brissett under center in place of Deshaun Watson for at least the Browns’ first 11 games, Chubb may very well lead the league in carries this season, even with Kareem Hunt as a talented back up.

43. CeeDee Lamb — WR, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: NR)

With Amari Cooper now in Cleveland, CeeDee Lamb is unquestionably Dak Prescott’s new top target in the Cowboys offense, and is poised for a monster Year 3.

Projections for his numbers this year are off the charts, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished in the top three in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, or if he led the league in both categories.

His ball skills and playmaking ability on the outside sometime seem effortless.

He’s battling a minor foot injury heading into Week 1, but should be good to go.

42. Kyle Pitts — TE, Atlanta Falcons (Last year: NR)

Kyle Pitts immediately showcased his talent as a rookie last season, hauling in 1,026 receiving yards and leading all tight ends in yards per catch (15.1) and air yards per target (10.8).

The tight end position continues to push out more athletic ‘freak’ prospects into the league as time marches on, and Pitts is one of the most talented prospects yet.

Kyle Pitts runs routes like Megatron and looks like Gronk. Good luck covering him pic.twitter.com/7VNODjubDY

— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) August 23, 2022

He’s not much of a blocker, but his speed, size and overall pass-catching ability (6-foot-6, 246 pounds) make him a mismatch for virtually any NFL defender, regardless of position.

Last year he almost had an even split in thirds in terms of snaps spent in-line, in the slot our out wide, but most of his receiving yards came when he was classified as a wide receiver.

The Falcons are in a full-on rebuild right now, but they chose the right player with the No. 4 overall pick in 2021 when they selected Pitts. He has Hall-of-Fame potential.

41.Mike Evans – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 31)

This season is his last year of his 20s, putting him squarely either in the late middle or backend of his prime as an outside-the-numbers receiver, but one thing’s for certain, few pass catchers have had a better career than Mike Evans.

He’s the only receiver to begin his career with eight straight 1,000+ yard receiving seasons, and he’s set career highs in receiving touchdowns the last two years with marks of 13 and 14 in 2020 and 2021.

The 6-foot-5, 231-pound power-forward like receiver is one of the best perimeter jump-ball players the game has ever seen. But saying that feels like I’m selling his mechanics and route running short.

He’s a complete receiver who may go down as one of Tom Brady’s four or five favorite targets throughout his career.

“As far as the high-end guys, he’s one of the most underrated in football,” an AFC scout told ESPN.

“That’s how his career has been. When he’s done, he’ll have so many yards and production that you’ll have to put him in the Hall of Fame. He’s not always respected as he should be.”

40. Kevin Byard – S, Tennessee Titans (Last year: 96)

Byard put on a career-best campaign last season, grading as PFF‘s top-rated safety in overall play (90.4 grade) and pass coverage (90.9) while earning a second career First-team All-Pro nod as the free safety and cornerstone/lynchpin of the Tennessee Titans defense.

He brings toughness and playmaking ability to the backend of the secondary, leading all safeties with 23 interceptions since 2017. Last year, his 13 defended passes also was the best number amongst his peers.

“Consistency in coverage separates him — he’s got rare instincts, always around the ball,” an AFC scout told ESPN.

“I think that position is the toss-up year-to-year with those top couple of guys, but he’s been the most consistent over the last few years in my opinion.”

39. A.J. Terrell — CB, Atlanta Falcons (Last year: NR)

After a rough rookie season in 2020, A.J. Terrell exploded into one of the NFL’s top defensive backs in 2021, grading as the second-best cornerback in the league in overall play and pass coverage according to PFF, and earning Second-team All-Pro honors.

He spends almost all of his time on the outside as a true shutdown perimeter cornerback. Among outside corners playing at least 300 coverage snaps last season, Terrell’s 0.6 yards allowed per snap was tops in the league, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

A.J. Terrell didn’t allow more than 32 yards in coverage in a game this season 🗜 pic.twitter.com/s73vnv9nGm

— PFF (@PFF) February 22, 2022

Similar to Kyle Pitts’ blurb a few players up in this list, Terrell gives the Falcons another franchise cornerstone player in which to build their team around.

He’s my No. 2 cornerback in the league right now, and is close to being considered the best cornerback in the NFL heading into Year 3.

38. Maxx Crosby — EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: NR)

From being a rookie 4th-round pick and HBO Hard Knocks star in 2019, to an unheralded All-Pro (Second-team) player in Year 3 last season, the ascension and journey of Maxx Crosby has been amazing to witness.

He’s a physically and mentally touch football player (he’s yet to miss a game) who has overcome obstacles off the field, transforming him into a can-do type of athlete that should boost his potential entering Year 4 and beyond.

His career-high sack total actually came in his rookie season in 2019 (10), but be’s became much more of a complete EDGE defender this past season in his breakout campaign.

PFF graded him as the second-best EDGE defender in the league (91.7 grade) in overall play, as well as second-best in pass rushing and sixth-best in run defense.

He can do it all now, which bodes well for the Raiders’ new coaching regime of head coach Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who spent five seasons as a Patriots defensive coach, and recently as defensive coordinator for Brian Flores’ Dolphins and Joe Judge’s Giants.

Graham is a Patriots-style defensive coordinator through and through. Las Vegas even brought along veteran sack master Chandler Jones to play opposite Crosby this year. But whether or not Graham leans toward more 3-4 or 4-3-style packages on defense, or both, Crosby should fit in nicely as a do-it-all defensive end.

37. Jeffery Simmons — DI, Tennessee Titans (Last year: 95)

Similar to Maxx Crosby behind him on this list, Jeffrey Simmons enjoyed a breakout Year 3 campaign last season, earning Second-team All-Pro honors.

The former first-round pick (No. 19 overall) was a stud in 2021, seemingly finally fully recovered from an ACL tear that caused him to miss the start of his rookie year.

His 38.4 percent run stop win rate was the highest mark in the league among interior defenders, and he notched 8.5 sacks as a pass rusher.

“Game-wrecker,” an AFC scout told ESPN of Simmons.

“Can play 3-technique or nose tackle, high motor, physical, unique blend of get-off quickness and power, impacts the game in both phases. Another guy you have to know where he is at all times.”

“Right behind Donald as far as tackles, a NFL scouting director told ESPN. “He’s the scary guy you don’t want to see.”

The Titans will soon go through some sort of larger re-tooling from the team they’ve been throughout the Mike Vrabel-Ryan Tannehill-Derrick Henry era, but their M.O., toughness, is still intact, and Simmons is the perfect player to lead that charge for Tennessee in 2020 as one of the best emerging defensive lineman in the NFL.

36. Kyler Murray — QB, Arizona Cardinals (Last year: 50)

The running theme in recent seasons is that the Arizona Cardinals get off to the races like gangbusters in September and October before falling off a cliff/Kliff (pun intended, I’ll see myself out…) down the stretch.

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray certainly deserve some blame for that.

But Murray remains one of the more unique players in the game today as a true shotgun, spread operator as a passer and designed rusher. His 20 career rushing touchdowns in three seasons are an example of his dynamic ability, but his 22-23-1 overall record as a starter is a classic good-with-the-bad scenario for his career thus far, although the latter number is clearly not all on Murray.

As inconsistent as this Cardinals team can be, they have a future with their young former No. 1 overall pick leading the charge.

After a game of chicken this offseason, Murray and Arizona eventually agreed to a massive five-year, $230.5 million contract extension ($160 million guaranteed), keeping him in the fold for the foreseeable future.

With DeAndre Hopkins out for the first six games of the season with a suspension, Murray and the Cardinals will be tested early this time around.

Former first-round pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was brought in via a controversial trade with the Ravens that saw Arizona give up a first-round pick for and give a lucrative extension to a receiver who is yet to breakout.

Murray’s ability to improve down the stretch and perhaps incorporate Brown into the fold for a career season, may be a good indicator of how successful Arizona is this season on offense.

35. Dak Prescott – QB, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 48)

He had career-bests in passing touchdowns (37) and completion percentage (68.8%) last year on a career-high (tied with 2019) 596 pass attempts, and helped lead the Cowboys to a third NFC East title in six seasons.

But Dallas unceremoniously bowed out of the playoffs with a home NFC Wild Card loss to the 49ers in which Prescott mismanaged the clock on the final drive.

The brutal playoff losses have been common place for America’s Team since their dynastic run in the 1990s.

Prescott and the team should use their failures, and media member’s and fan’s opinions of them as fuel to succeed.

That’ll be tough to do with the Cowboys’ dwindling offensive line situation, sudden decline of a rushing attack, and the departure of receiver Amari Cooper.

Fellow Top 100 list mate and teammate CeeDee Lamb may be the only surefire weapon Prescott has in 2022.

It’ll be up to Prescott to elevate his supporting cast, something he can and will do, as well as integrate newcomers such as third-round pick Jalen Tolbert, a rookie receiver who may see a ton of snaps in the early goings this season.

Prescott signed a mega-deal last offseason, and will earn said deal with his performances in these next two to three important seasons for a team that can compete in a suddenly semi-desolate (in terms of contenders) NFC.

34. Matthew Stafford – QB, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 43)

In Matthew Stafford’s blurb last year, I wrote this:

“If the 33-year-old passer still has a few prime years left, he should enjoy playing for a team that won’t require him to do things like he did in 2016 with the Lions — complete an NFL single-season record eight fourth quarter comebacks — for his team to compete.

Stafford spent years elevating a porous Lions squad, and although he’ll need to consistently play well for the Rams to go where they want to go, Sean McVay’s offensive scheme revolving around outside runs and play-action passing out of tight/bunch formations should make things easier for Stafford, considering his off-script and throw-on-the run ability.”

It felt good to witness Stafford playing in a system well-suited for his play (his 18 pass completions over 40+ yards led all QBs in 2021), and for a team that had legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Stafford and the Rams immediately found success in the early going in 2021, as the team was maybe the top contender in the league early on before overcoming some road bumps throughout the season to take charge again in the playoffs.

In the road to Super Bowl 56, Stafford first led a game-winning drive on the road in Tampa Bay to defeat Tom Brady in the Bucs, before helping McVay’s Rams finally defeat their arch nemesis, the 49ers, via a 13-point 4th quarter comeback to win the NFC title game. In Super Bowl 56, he led another game-winning drive to defeat the Bengals.

Matthew Stafford no look 👀

(🎥 @RamsNFL)
pic.twitter.com/8wvUdj4RJo

— PFF (@PFF) August 7, 2022

Now, at age 34, Stafford will look to maximize the Rams’ remaining Super Bowl window after one of his best seasons.

The Rams are still in ‘win-now’ mode, acquiring veterans such as wide receiver Allen Robinson and linebacker Bobby Wagner (both on this list) in their quest to repeat.

With Stafford now at the helm, the Rams, along with the Buccaneers and Packers, are on the top of the list when it comes to current NFC favorites.

33. Chris Jones – DI, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 20)

His 42 QB pressures last year ranked second among interior defenders, behind only Aaron Donald. He was also named a Second-team All-Pro player for the third time in the past four seasons.

Jones is a big reason why the Chiefs’ usually-underwhelming defense in recent seasons can sometimes go through stretches of top-level play. He sets the tone up front.

He also has a knack for batting down passes at the line of scrimmage.

Most importantly, he plays with a fiery edge that is sometimes lacking with the Chiefs defense. It’s much needed.

He remains a force as an elite pass rusher and improving run defender.

32. Travis Kelce – TE, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 8)

Last season was his sixth campaign in a row producing 1,000-plus receiving yards, grading as a top-four tight end by PFF, and being named an All-Pro, and he produced double-digit touchdowns for the third time in four seasons.

He remains Patrick Mahomes’ favorite weapon, and at times, is simply uncoverable as a 6-foot-5, 250-pound tight end with wiggly route-running ability and shake-and-bake moves after the catch like a wide receiver (he led all TEs in yards after contact and yards after catch in 2021).

But when will his play decline? He turns 33 this October, and with Tyreek Hill now in Miami, defenses can shift a little more attention than usual Kelce’s way in the form of double-coverage and spy defenders underneath to stop some of the ‘sit’ routes he destroys defenses with.

Still, Kelce will find a way to damage defenses like few can, for most of 2022, but the backend of his prime will soon be over.

31. Deebo Samuel – WR/RB, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: NR)

Is he a wide receiver? A running back? Both? Whatever you want to classify Deebo Samuel, he’s one of the best football players on the planet.

It seemed as if he wanted to leave San Francisco this offseason, with his heavy usage as a ball carrier perhaps being part of the reason, but he and the 49ers finally recently agreed on a three-year, $73.5 million contract extension with $58.1 million guaranteed.

Last season, he had plenty of stats, including the honor of being named First-team All-Pro, that showcased his true versatility as a dynamic receiver, rusher and overall playmaker.

He led the NFL in yards per catch, minimum 25 receptions (18.2), and led all receivers in yards after catch per reception (10.0). He was fifth in the league in receiving yards (1,405) and added on 365 rushing yards and eight rushing scores while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. PFF graded him third among receivers (90.2 grade) in overall play, and fifth in pass-catching, while he graded fifth overall as a rusher among running backs.

As San Francisco transitions into the Trey Lance era, the offense will add in different concepts and wrinkles, and veer toward schematic trends that suit their young QB well, but the overall Shanahan offense should continue to revolve around Samuel, one of game’s most dynamic player, as well.

30. Shaquille Leonard – LB, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 40)

Whether he goes by Darius, or now his middle name, Shaquille, Leonard is one of the best off-ball linebackers in the league, perfectly suited as a new-age, sideline-to-sideline hunter to help defend the speedy spread offenses and wide zone rushing schemes that are becoming more prevalent.

He’s been named an All-Pro in each of his four seasons, and last year was his third time being named to the First-team.

Despite being known a bit more for his pass coverage skills (he had four interceptions last year), he was actually the top-graded linebacker in run coverage by PFF last season.

He also forced a league-high eight fumbles, recovering two himself.

At just 27 years old, he should remain the enforcer of the Colts defense for years to come.

29. DeForest Buckner – DI, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 22)

Back-to-back Colts defenders here, with one of the league’s most underrated players coming in at No. 28, before the more well-known Leonard.

After two straight seasons of being named an All-Pro, DeForest Buckner flew a bit more under the radar than usual in 2021.

At 6-foot-7, 295 pounds, Buckner is a daunting presence. He’s one of the best interior rushers in the league. He’s tallied 36 sacks in his last four seasons, a harder feat for defensive tackles.

He’s also only missed three games in his six-season career.

With talented pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue and young do-it-all EDGE Kwity Paye also along the defensive line, Buckner’s ability to beat double teams and have offensive lines account for him in the middle, should open up things for Indy’s pass rushers and linebackers such as Shaquille Leonard.

28. Stefon Diggs – WR, Buffalo Bills (Last year: 15)

Compared to his unbelievable first year with the Bills, 2022 seemed like a step down for Stefon Diggs, but he was still clearly one of the best receivers in football.

Josh Allen looked his way 164 times last season, and Diggs hauled in 103 catches for 1,225 yards and 10 scores.

In Buffalo’s spread, Air-Raid-style offense, Diggs can easily move around. He’s one of the best route runners this game has ever seen, meaning he can certainly escape any style of cover man from any alignment.

“If we’re talking about beating a corner, winning one-on-one coverage, I don’t know if there’s anybody better,” a NFL offensive coach told ESPN of Diggs. “That’s his defining trait. He can break you down.”

Last year, he spent about 78 percent of his snaps out wide. I expect him to work a bit more out of the slot this season.

No matter if he was named an X-receiver, Z-receiver or slot man, Diggs is a potential All-Pro.

27. Jonathan Taylor– RB, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: NR)

I left him off after his solid rookie season in 2020 (1,169 rushing yards, 11 rush TDs, 5,0 yards per carrry), which was a mistake.

Last year, Taylor finished second in Offensive Player of the Year voting, and was unanimously named First-team All-Pro.

He led the league in rushing yards (1,811), rushing touchdowns (18) and 20+ yard runs (14), and led all running backs in overall PFF grade (87.1). He also tied with Austin Ekeler for the league-lead in total touchdowns (20), and despite leading the NFL in carries (335), he still 5.5 yards per carry, which is insane.

If you’ve already read Najee Harris’ section earlier in this exercise, you see how I view the old-school, feature running back of bigger size returning to the game in sort of a cyclical way.

Taylor (5-foot-10, 226 pounds) is not massive, but he’s a bigger back than most today, and is capable of carrying his team to victories on the ground.

He runs with power and stamina that once exemplified some of the older 25-carries-per-game backs, but he’s also sneaky explosive, and packs a home-run threat, running for a league-high five 40-plus yard runs in 2021.

His offensive line is one of the best in the league. The unit is up there with the Browns’ group in terms of run-blocking, but Taylor is a talented runner who would do well in any scheme or system.

26. Derrick Henry – RB, Tennessee Titans (Last year: 10)

Derrick Henry was on pace for back-to-back historic seasons before a Jones fracture in Week 8 caused him to miss the entire second half of this past regular season.

He became the eighth rusher in NFL history to scamper for 2,000+ yards in 2020, and added 17 TDs and won Offensive Player of the Year in the process.

In eight games last season, he ran for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns. By the time the regular season ended, Henry was still ninth in rushing yards despite playing in less than half of the Titans’ games. His yards per game mark (117.1) widely led the league by season’s end.

At just 28, Henry still has the potential for a few more top-shelf seasons. He’s been a workhorse throughout his career, meaning his production could immediately halt at any moment, but Henry is different than most backs.

Along with maybe Adrian Peterson, Derrick Henry is the closest thing to Jim Brown this league has seen since Brown retired.

In a show of faith, the Titans re-worked Henry’s contract recently, making him the highest-paid running back this season ($14 million).

The Titans lost A.J. Brown and Julio Jones this offseason, and rookie Malik Willis may push Ryan Tannehill for the starting quarterback job by season’s end. Tennessee is either in a mild transition as a franchise this season, or they will be soon. But the offense still revolves around Henry for now.

25. Zack Martin – OG, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: 21)

Zack Martin, 31, has already produced one of the great careers as a guard in NFL history.

Last year, he was named First-team All-Pro for the fifth time in eight seasons, and PFF graded him second among guards (93.7) for the second straight year in an eight-year career that has him grading in the top five among his peers every season. He was also graded as top guard in run blocking, and second in pass blocking.

He’s one of the NFL’s most dependable players, as he rarely ever commits a penalty.

He has actually has more Pro Bowl appearances (7) than holding penalties committed (6) in his career, and last season was his fifth campaign without committing a single holding penalty. He’s a machine.

The Cowboys once-powerful offensive line just a few seasons ago, is going through a major transition. Tyron Smith is now missing at least most of this season due to injury (Dallas recently signed former Eagles tackle Jason Peters, who is age 40, to replace Smith) and the rest of the group is rather unheralded.

Martin’s presence as a leader will come in handy this season.

24.Fred Warner – LB, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 39)

A year after being graded as PFF‘s top linebacker in coverage and overall play, Fred Warner played well once again, finishing fourth in each of those categories this season, and seventh amongst his peers versus the run.

He’s the complete package, taking the torch from Bobby Wagner as not only the prototypical linebacker in today’s game, but the gold standard.

“A true three-down linebacker, can be the quarterback of a complex defense, can blitz, great in coverage, great awareness,” an NFL personnel evaluator told ESPN.

He’s the perfect type off off-ball linebacker to both chase down outsize-zone rushers to the sideline, and terrorize quarterbacks in shallow to intermediate zone coverage over the middle of the field.

Slot receivers up the seam, athletic tight ends running posts off of play-action passes, running backs running option routs out of the backfield, Warner can cover them all.

He’s still just 25 years old, meaning his run as one of the league’s best defensive players may only be beginning.

23. Russell Wilson – QB, Denver Broncos (Last year: 5)

Last year, Wilson’s numbers at face value (25 TDs, 6 INTs) for 14 games looked on-par with some of his efficient seasons of the past.

But his head and heart clearly were not as into it as years past down the stretch for a Seahawks team that was suffering through their first apparent re-tooling season. And that’s saying a lot about a quarterback with a near Tom Brady-level will to win.

His trade request was obliged, and with a move to the Broncos, came a massive new deal (five years, $245 million, $165 million guaranteed).

At 34, and joining a new team that still needs to bolster, or even fix, it’s offensive line situation, it’s tough to predict a classic-style Wilson season in Year 1 in his new home. As it is, I have the Broncos finishing last in the AFC West, and a couple wins away from a playoff berth.

But simply put, Wilson is a leader and winner.

His 113 wins as a starter (including playoffs) are the most for a quarterback through his first 10 seasons.

This season, he’ll need some help from Javonte Williams and the outside-zone rushing attack being re-installed in Denver, the birthplace and foundation of the Mike Shanahan scheme 25 years ago. If that can get going, then head coach Nathaniel Hackett, offensive coordinator Justin Outten and the returning Gary Kubiak can help scheme up downfield shots to X-receiver Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler for Wilson on play-action and bootleg concepts.

There’s a good chance Wilson enjoys a solid second act of his career in Denver. He may just need a season to acclimate, and for Denver to build this thing up.

22. Tyreek Hill – WR, Miami Dolphins (Last year: 7)

Now that he’s in Miami (with a fresh new contract extension),the big question surrounding Tyreek Hill this season, is the effectiveness of Tua Tagovailoa, and the latter’s ability to get the ball to the former, all within a new Shanahan-style scheme ushered in by rookie head coach Mike McDaniel.

Still just 28 years old, Hill’s never-before-seen speed, quickness, yards-after-catch ability and explosiveness are still intact, as well as his downfield pass-catching, and hang-onto-the-ball percentage when being cracked by safeties.

Perhaps no player in NFL history has had the complete package as a playmaker, with all of the above skills, as Hill.

He’s even shown the ability to adapt to changes.

Last season, as various two-deep safety alignments and four-man rushes helped flummox a once explosive Kansas City offense, Hill adapted by becoming more of a high-volume underneath option as the season waned, finishing for a career-high in targets (159), catches (111) and first downs (75).

His yards per reception number (11.2) dropped to his lowest since his rookie season, but that should increase in Miami, as play-action shots off of outside zone should accompany several deep cross-field drags and posts.

The preseason offered a small glimpse of the potential of Jaylen Waddle and Hill playing off each other on such concepts (see tweet below).

Tyreek Hill played just 3 snaps in the preseason, but in his first, he caught a 51-yard deep ball from Tua Tagovailoa.

A reminder of what the Patriots must contend with in Sunday’s season opener. pic.twitter.com/n2W4lzeV7B

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) September 5, 2022

It also remains to be seen whether or not Miami will utilize Hill as a ball carrier, or de-facto running back, like San Francisco utilized Deebo Samuel last season.

There will be some adjustments to a new team, scheme and a lesser quarterback (despite what Hill has said this offseason on this matter), but ultimately Hill will adapt, and produce big plays as he always has.

21.Justin Jefferson – WR, Minnesota Vikings (Last year: 46)

Back-to-back receivers here, with a much different playmaker coming in at No. 21 in Justin Jefferson, a route-running extraordinaire.

Brought in as a direct replacement to Stefon Diggs in 2020, I believe Jefferson has now surpassed him as an overall receiver and pass catcher.

He followed up a near-historic rookie campaign (88 catches, 1,400 receiving yards, 15.9 yards per catch, 7 TDs) with an even-better sophomore season (167 targets, 1,616 receiving yards, 10 TDs).

He was named Second-team All-Pro in each of his first two seasons, and ranked fourth in second among receivers in PFF grade. And according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jefferson had 2,060 air yards last year, which was 45.2 percent of his team’s total output, the most of any player in the league.

The sky is the limit for Jefferson in Year 3 and beyond under new head coach Kevin O’Connell. The recent Rams offensive coordinator should bring some deep play-action passing and bootleg concepts that will accentuate Jefferson’s ability as a downfield mismatch option for defensive backs.

20. George Kittle – TE, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 6)

He’s had some trouble staying healthy, missing nine games over the past two seasons, which has helped minimize his numbers in 2020 and 2021 after a two-year stretch of a dominance in 2018 and 2019.

Still, PFF graded him first among tight ends in receiving, and second in overall play last year.

He’s still the best tight end in football.

Between his blocking, yards-after catch ability and awareness on the field, his presence (along with Deebo Samuel’s) makes Kyle Shanahan’s ‘Shanahan’ offense, the crème de la crème of its kind.

The 28-year-old is still in the prime of his career, and should produce better numbers this season as a main target on various passing concepts (play-action posts, seam routes, bootleg drags, etc.) for a young quarterback (Trey Lance) who will need an outlet while learning the rigors of the pro game.

19. Joey Bosa – EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 16)

He had another solid season in 2021, tallying 10.5 sacks and grading fourth as a pass-rushing EDGE on PFF.

There’s a chance he has an even better campaign this year, with Khalil Mack opposite him in Brandon Staley’s Vic Fangio-style 3-4 scheme. Bosa was double teamed on 23 percent of defensive snaps last season, but that will now certainly change.

“He always has a plan. He’s setting up his moves for later in the game, and he’s got great technique,” an NFL personnel evaluator told ESPN of Joey Bosa.

“He’s just a classic edge rusher. He’s a nightmare for a tackle because of the way he keeps you guessing.”

The Chargers are a team with an absurd amount of talent, and Bosa is the second-highest Charger on this list, behind the team’s quarterback.

18. Justin Herbert – QB, Los Angeles Chargers (Last year: 82)

All of the hype surrounding Justin Herbert heading into Year 3, is warranted.

His numbers through his first two seasons are already top-tier.

Last year, he finished second in passing yards (5,314), third in passing touchdowns (38), third in Total QBR (65.6) and fourth in PFF grade among quarterbacks (90.0).

He can move in and out of the pocket, extend plays, throw downfield, and is steadily improving on how he reads defenses.

He also has one of the best arms this league has ever seen. It’s simply a cannon (see below).

Random reminder…@chargers' Justin Herbert has a cannon for an arm! pic.twitter.com/kPYNK19Lqd

— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) September 4, 2022

“When you’re that talented physically and you’re smart, it’s mind-boggling,” a NFL coordinator said of Herbert to ESPN.

“Adding his strength and power, he’s hard to tackle, all of that; and he’s seeing things for another season so will have a better understanding.”

There’s a lot of pressure on Herbert this season. He’s leading a talented Chargers team with nine players on my Top 100 list, the most of any single team since I began this exercise in 2018. The Chargers have certainly stocked up during Herbert’s rookie contract, which is wise.

To take advantage of their newly-created Super Bowl window, Herbert will have to balance his talent and aggression by learning how to limit his mistakes (15 interceptions last season).

There’s a strong chance he’s among the Top 5 or 10 on this list by next season.

17. Joe Burrow – QB, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: NR)

Two years after his fabulous Heisman Trophy-winning, National Championship season to finish college, Joe Burrow led his team, the usually downtrodden Bengals, to the verge of a Super Bowl title.

In between those two seasons was a rough rookie year that included some growing pains and an ACL tear, as Cincinnati was reminded they were a bottom dweller.

But look how quickly things can change?

Burrow, who was named Comeback Player of the Year, was the highest-graded QB by PFF last season in passing and overall play.

He’s also now the third quarterback in history to rightly earn the nickname “Joe Cool,” following in the footsteps of two former legendary Super Bowl heroes in Joe Namath and Joe Montana.

The Legend of Joe Burrow's Deep Passes. I asked for the stories behind Burrow's deep touchdowns last year and they were completely ridiculous. One of the coolest things I've ever had the privilege of reporting. Read: https://t.co/LWY80zSexX

— Kevin Clark (@bykevinclark) August 18, 2022

Last season, Burrow was calm and cerebral in the pocket, and spread the ball to his offensive weapons with ease. As great as Herbert is — and his potential as a talent trumps Burrow’s — the quarterback position in the pros will always revolve around decision-making and accuracy, as ESPN analyst Louis Riddick puts it.

Herbert is an incredible passer, but I believe Burrow is the better overall quarterback at the moment, even if just by a smidge.

“I hate to compare anybody to Brady, but he might be the closest thing,” a NFL offensive coach said of Burrow to ESPN.

“What, did he take nine sacks in that playoff game [against Tennessee]? Didn’t flinch. Hung in there. He’s just got a toughness about him and the ability to think through a game.”

Cincinnati may go through a bit of a Super Bowl loser’s curse next season. But if you study closely, you should see improvements in Burrow’s game. He’s a gamer, and he’s only going to get better.

16. Ja’Marr Chase – WR, Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: NR)

Coming in one spot above Burrow is his favorite target, both in college, and now the NFL.

There’s no beating around the bush — Ja’Marr Chase may already be the best wide receiver in the NFL.

At 6-foot, 201 pounds, he combines speed and power to be one of the game’s most explosive athletes.

As a rookie, he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, was named Second-team All-Pro, and tallied 1,455 yard (fourth in NFL) for 13 receiving touchdowns (third in NFL). He also ranked second in yards per reception (18.0) and yards per target (11.5), and third in yards after catch (658).

He’s just as liable to outmuscle and outrun an entire defense for a long touchdown on a slant, as he is on a fly.

Random reminder…@JoeyB ➡️ @Real10jayy__ is a problem! pic.twitter.com/Xy22oIYNzS

— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) September 5, 2022

In the regular season, Chase’s performances in two wins over division rival Baltimore (15 catches, 326 yards, 1 TD) and another versus Kansas City (12 targets, 11 catches, 266 yards, 3 TDs) were the stuff of legends.

Teams paid more attention to him in the playoffs, yet he still managed to garner 100+ receiving yards in his first two playoff games before scoring a crucial touchdown in the Bengals’ comeback in Kansas City to reach the Super Bowl.

Chase reminds me of some of the best explosive receivers this game has ever seen. Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Tyreek Hill.

It also helps that he has a deep connection with Burrow, and that he’s part of a receiving core perfectly built with tall X-receiver Tee Higgins on the perimeter, and “big” slot Tyler Boyd.

For now, Chase is perfect as a X/Z-receiver hyrbrid spending most of his time outside, but has the ability to move around (think: “speed” slot receiver in shotgun trips).

He should be a mainstay among top offensive weapons for the rest of this decade.

I’d be fairly surprised if he’s not the top receiver on this list next season.

15. Quenton Nelson – OG, Indianapolis Colts (Last year: 11)

Year 4 was the first “down” year for Quenton Nelson, by his standards.

He missed three games due to a high-ankle sprain, and the season ended up being his first campaign where he was not named a First-team All-Pro.

Still, Nelson was one of the league’s better guards, earning Second-team All-Pro honors, and helping to lead the way for the NFL’s leading rusher in Jonathan Taylor.

Heading into a contract year, playing on his fifth-year option, I have Nelson as one of my surest bets to be named First-Team All-Pro in 2022.

He’s the best guard in football, no question, and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

14. Davante Adams – WR, Las Vegas Raiders (Last year: 17)

After eight seasons with the Packers, mostly as Aaron Rodgers’ top target, Davante Adams surprisingly requested a trade, presumably in the search for one last big contract.

The Raiders, under a new former Patriots regime of general manager Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels, obliged.

Las Vegas sent a first and second-round pick to Green Bay for Adams, showcasing the wide receiver’s worth. Las Vegas than made Adams the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history via a five-year, $141.5 million deal ($28.25 million per year).

ESPN Cover Story on @tae15adams now available across ESPN platforms

@TimKeownESPN on Adams' path to the @Raiders

Video debuts this weekend on Sunday NFL Countdown (10a ET, ESPN)

Details: https://t.co/IOWa5UDOMg

Read: https://t.co/6ug1eLgmD5 | Trailer: https://t.co/CVBUlPb82m pic.twitter.com/fnbExJyL42

— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) September 6, 2022

Adams, 29, is coming off the beset two-year stretch of his career, totaling 138 catches for 2,927 receiving yards and 29 receiving scores. He also was named First-team All-Pro in both seasons, and PFF graded him first and second in 2020 and 2021 among his position.

He has the body of a pure outside, X-receiver (6-foot-1, 215 pounds), yet is as quick and agile as they come, which helps him in the slot, where he also spends a good amount of time.

Along with Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen, he is the present-day Mt. Rushmore of route-running for receivers. He’s as smooth as they come, and has the respect of his peers, and from the league in general.

In an interview with Brandon Marshall and Co. on the I Am Athlete podcast over the summer, Julian Edelman mentioned Adams first when the hosts grilled the former Patriots great by making him name is top-three current receivers.

“He’s quicker than what you think,” Edelman said of Adams.

“He can run run by you, has great separation, great catch radius. You can play him everywhere, and we saw that with the Packers the last couple years. His versatility, his size, his quickness…he’s not the fastest guy, but he’s never not open, because he had the back shoulder thing going with Aaron Rodgers.”

“Still the best,” an NFC exec told ESPN of Adams.

“Big, athletic, runs all the routes, competitive.” Added an AFC personnel evaluator: “His spatial awareness and route feel are the best. There are times, because of how good he was with Aaron [Rodgers], where you couldn’t guard him.”

Adams’ overall production, from a volume stand point, may take a small hit in 2022. The Raiders are well equipped on offense with tight end Darren Waller, slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and running back Josh Jacobs also expected to garner targets and touches.

But Adams is the top option for his good friend, Derek Carr, this year. And despite the perceived caution of thinking a high-priced free agent receiver will just pick things right where he left off with a new squad, there’s little reason to doubt Adams won’t be an All-Pro caliber player again this season. He’s a great fit for McDaniels’ offense.

13.Cooper Kupp – WR, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 90)

Kupp lit the league on fire in 2022 by producing arguably the greatest season for a wide receiver in NFL history.

His year was so spectacular, that I’m better off listing his stats, accolades and accomplishments in bullet form:

— Ranked first in targets (191), catches (145), receiving yards (1,947 and receiving TDs (16)

— Ranked first in 20+ yard receiving plays (30), 40+ yard receiving plays (9) and yards after catch (846), and had zero fumbles

— Ranked first among receivers in first downs (89)

— Ranked first in expected points added (111.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats

— Graded first by PFF among WRs in receiving (93.1) and overall grade (93.0)

— In four playoff games, tallied 33 catches for 478 yards and caught 6 TDs

— Named First-team All-Pro

— Named NFL Offensive Player of the Year

— Named Super Bowl MVP

*******

Some may have the notion that Kupp can only produce from the slot, but he can play the Z-receiver or X-receiver role just as well. In fact, he’s more of an inside-outside hybrid.

At 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, he’s more physical than most think, deploying the ability to beat press through his build. But that’s not needed, as his quickness and nuance at the position is matched only by Davante Adams.

(ICYMI) Rams' Cooper Kupp still looking to improve on last season: "I want to go look at film and say I was a better football player than I was in 2021"https://t.co/Mxs9x4BEbO pic.twitter.com/De5kyg0J4Y

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) September 4, 2022

There’s a debate over who is the best route-runner in the NFL, but my money is on Kupp, who signed a lucrative three-year extension over the summer, heading into 2022, even if just barely. He’s able to work on an island versus any type of defender, in any type of alignment, and take them to school. He can get open on McVay’s designed play-action and bootleg concepts, or in shotgun spread looks on clear passing downs.

This season, it’s unlikely he matches the volume numbers set forth in 2021, but watch the subtleties in Kupp’s game throughout the season. There’s a good chance that he’ll somehow get better.

12. Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens (Last year: 18)

Last season, the Ravens began the season 8-3 before various injuries occurred, which assisted in them losing six straight games to close the season (five of the losses were by a combined eight points. Lamar Jackson was sidelined by an ankle injury in Week 14 that caused him to miss the rest of the season.

After two solid seasons as a passer and rusher, Jackson’s passing numbers were way down in 2021 in 12 games, but he was well on his way to a third straight season of 1,000+ rushing yards had he played a full state.

He’s one of the most dynamic players to ever play the quarterback position. He’s the best rushing quarterback of all time already (sorry, Michael Vick), and is underrated as a passer, both in arm talent and cereberal ability.

Most importantly, he’s a winner. He has a 37-12 regular season record as a starter, which gives him a winning percentage that ranks up with the best quarterbacks of all time through 50 starts. He also became the winningest QB in NFL history before the age of 25 last season, passing Dan Marino.

Highest team PPG by a QB since 1950
(min. 25 starts)

Patrick Mahomes 30.6
LAMAR JACKSON 29.0
Tom Brady 28.3 pic.twitter.com/a4vaxY4E5r

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 7, 2022

This season, the Ravens are not only my pick to win the AFC North, but to win the Super Bowl, both because of their smart offseason signings and draft moves (per usual), and because the return of Jackson, who I predict will have a career year in 2022 via versatility as a passer and rusher.

Jackson will begin this season without the new deal he’s been coveting. His rookie contract officially runs out this offseason. But like Joe Flacco exactly a decade ago, Jackson is well positioned to become the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history if he is to reach his potential as a rusher and improved passer this season. I’m confident he’ll impress many.

11. Trent Williams – OT, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 28)

Picking back up from a fantastic 2020 campaign, his first in San Francisco, Trent Williams somehow improved in 2021.

He graded as PFF‘s top tackle in overall play for the second straight season (96.6 grade), and he was also the top-rated offensive linemanin run blocking (97.7).

Somehow, last season was the only time in his career that he was named First-team All-Pro.

I mentioned earlier how important George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are to Kyle Shanahan’s successful offense, but Williams is just as valuable as a 6-foot-5, 320-pound tackle with the quickness and speed to block defenders on outside zone runs.

Along with Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and others, Williams was named a team captain for 2022, which is a testament to his leadership, as this is just his second season with the 49ers.

He did turn 34 over the summer, but he’s the best offensive lineman in the game right now, regardless.

10. Jalen Ramsey – CB, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 23)

As of right now, there’s not debate over who is the best defensive back in football. It’s Jalen Ramsey.

Notice how I said defensive back, and not cornerback.

Ramsey is an elite perimeter cornerback and an elite nickel defender, making him the best defensive back in the NFL right now. He spends ample time in each position, and his ability to defend out of each technique is evident of team’s necessity to have a top-end defender who can defend any top-tier pass catcher, from any position, in today’s game.

Ramsey was the top-graded cornerback by PFF in overall play and coverage last season, and was also graded as the fourth-best defender in run coverage among his peers.

Jalen Ramsey is a star.

He’s also the Rams’ “Star” – a position you’ve likely heard of, but which is also totally unique because it can evolve to mirror the personality of the player and defensive coordinator who help to shape it.

And evolve it has: https://t.co/MmzquZARDh

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) August 27, 2021

The Rams can line up the 6-foot-1, 208-pound Ramsey anywhere, but the Rams love using him at the “Star” position.

Teams love to throw inside the numbers, meaning leaving Ramsey inside as a zone or man-coverage defender is beneficial to keeping offense’s passing attacks at bay.

When Ramsey moves outside, he’s best utilized as a press coverage cornerback in Cover-3 and Zone-match looks.

Ramsey is also a competitor of the highest class, packing attitude and a can-do attitude that gets in the head of defenses.

Still just 27 years old, there’s a chance that he’s yet to reach his peak as a defender.

9. Micah Parsons – LB/EDGE, Dallas Cowboys (Last year: NR)

It seems like every year or two, there’s a generational defensive talent coming into the league.

Micah Parsons (6-foot-3, 245 pounds) is the most versatile of those prospects we may have ever seen.

The Dallas Cowboys were lucky he fell to the No. 12 overall pick in the 2021 draft. They selected him to play off-ball linebacker, in which he played a majority of his snaps in 2021, but defensive coordinator Dan Quinn ended up playing as an EDGE rusher almost half the time.

A breakdown of where Micah Parsons lined up during his rookie season pic.twitter.com/GmrJtcCMMa

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 6, 2022

Parsons actually played at least 115 snaps at left outside linebacker, left inside linebacker, right outside linebacker and right inside linebacker.

He was an unstoppable force wherever he was placed. PFF graded him as the league’s top linebacker (89.7 grade) and best pass rusher (93.0) at any position.

Parsons also registered 13 sacks, and the top pass rush win rate (29.2%) among EDGE defenders.

He was awarded the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and was named a First-team All-Pro.

There’s a debate on where Parsons should play. He’s a phenomenal off-ball linebacker, but pairing him on the edge opposite DeMarcus Lawrence is straight up lethal.

“I don’t see Micah as an off-the-ball LB at all,” an NFL coordinator told ESPN. “He’s really a 3-4 OLB that DQ (Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn) is scheming into situational opportunities.”

“If Dallas does anything but let him rush, they are crazy,” an NFC exec said to ESPN.

Regardless of where he plays most in 2022, Parsons has as good of a shot as anyone of winning Defensive Player of the Year. Even after just one season, it’s apparent he’s a Hall-of-Fame level talent.

8. Nick Bosa – EDGE, San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 19)

In his two healthy seasons (he missed almost all of 2020 due to an ACL tear), Nick Bosa has registered 24.5 sacks and forced five fumbles, often working against double teams.

He had 15.5 sacks and forced four fumbles last season, despite facing double teams on 30 percent of his defensive snaps, and his stellar play seemingly went mildly unrecognized compared to others.

In San Francisco’s 4-3-style defensive front, Bosa’s athletic presence is complinted by Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead providing a solid combo in the interior. Considering that, there’s at least some reason to think that offensive lines will have to slightly minimize their double teams on Bosa, or else one-on-ones will go to the 49ers elsewhere quite often. San Francisco is one of the most talented teams in the league, but Bosa is unquestionably their best player.

The 49ers already picked up his fifth-year option, meaning he has another year left on his deal after 2022, but there’s a strong chance Bosa receives a massive contract next summer, meaning he has extra incentive to put up a monster season.

7. Myles Garrett – EDGE, Cleveland Browns (Last year: 12)

Year 5 was Myles Garrett’s best as a pro.

He played in all 17 games, and registered a career-high 16 sacks and PFF graded him as the top EDGE in pass rushing (92.7 grade) and overall play (92.0).

Along with Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett is the prototypical 4-3 EDGE defender in today’s game. He’s a 6-foot-4, 272-pound power forward possessing speed and strength. He’s a mismatch for just about any offensive tackle he lines up against.

Myles Garrett's signature pass rushing move is some kind of eurostep and it's a sight to see. pic.twitter.com/uXHeUnWTBv

— Johnny Kinsley (@Brickwallblitz) September 8, 2022

Garrett has an array of moves he utilizes to get to the pass rusher (see above), both in the finesse and power categories. He’s used those moves to register the top PFF pass rush grade since 2017 (93.1) among EDGE defenders.

“When he’s on, one-on-one, he’s unblockable,” an AFC offensive coach said of Garrett to ESPN.

Garrett will be working opposite Jadeveon Clowney for a second straight season. Clowney is still a bigger presence, particularly versus the run, so there should be ample snaps for Garrett on the weak side, where he can pin his ears back and rack up sacks and pressures in 2022.

With their quarterback situation this season, the Browns need a DPOY-caliber season from Garrett. this year.

6. T.J. Watt – EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 9)

After finishing second in voting over the past two seasons, T.J. Watt finally was awarded (and rightly so) the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021.

His 22.5 sacks last year tied Michael Strahan for the all-time single season record, and Watt did it in 15 games played.

He also forced five fumbles, recovering three, and led the league with 35.5 ‘disrupted dropbacks,’ which includes include sacks, interceptions, batted passes at the line of scrimmage, and passes defended in coverage.

Watt is the best 3-4-style outside linebacker in the game.

Because of the modern day NFL, the Steelers mostly use a 2-4-5 as their base defense. Many believed Watt benefited greatly from playing opposite Bud Dupree for his first few seasons. But after Dupree left for the Titans this past year, Watt still put up a career year.

“Rare motor and quickness with his hands, has developed good power, and he can also dip and bend high side,” an AFC exec said to ESPN of Watt.

“Basically, he can beat you inside through you or outside. And [the Steelers] bring so much pressure typically that he’s able to add good chase production.”

Since he entered the league in 2017, Watt has the most sacks (72) and forced fumbles (22) in the league, and his sacks per game rate (0.94) is the best mark of all time.

He’ll turn just 28 in October, and is already closing in on James Harrison (80.5 sacks) to become the Steelers’ all-time sack leader. He almost certainly will reach that feat this season.

Playing for a historic franchise already packed with many memorable moments and players, Watt is becoming an all-time great for the Black and Gold.

5. Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills (Last year: 13)

Between Lamar Jackson’s speed, ball carrier vision and playmaking and cutting ability, Kyler Murray’s quickness and explosiveness, and Josh Allen’s gazelle-like long speed and power on both designed runs and scrambles, there are three of the best running quarterbacks of all-time playing in the present.

It just so happens that Allen also has one of the best arms in NFL history, and is improving his accuracy and decision-making as a passer at warp speed.

Between Allen’s development, and Bills general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott’s construction of the team, the Bills have now positioned themselves as not only the new bullies of the AFC East (they are 4-1 in their last five meetings with Bill Belichick’s Patriots), but as this year Super Bowl favorite.

Could Bills QB Josh Allen go down in NFL history as an all-time great?

I spoke with Bill Parcells, ⁦@kurt13warner⁩, ⁦@gregcosell⁩, @PhilSimmsQB⁩ and Dan Fouts and gathered 2021 texts from a “fixated” John Madden. https://t.co/L1VplNSpke

— Tim Graham (@ByTimGraham) September 1, 2022

Last year, Allen scored 42 total touchdowns (36 passing, 6 rushing) and graded as PFF‘s No. 3 overall QB (first in rushing, ninth in passing.

He carried the ball for a career-high 122 times and threw for a career-high 646 passes. And in his two final aforementioned meetings with New England in 2021, including a wild card beatdown in Buffalo, Allen throw for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions, and the Bills did not punt even once in those two meetings.

Quite simply, Allen is the football messiah of Buffalo.

We've missed watching @JoshAllenQB play football 🔥 @gabedavis13_

📺: #DENvsBUF on @NFLNetwork (check local listings)
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/DCzuT8Nqp6 pic.twitter.com/XpL6WUUsmA

— NFL (@NFL) August 20, 2022

The entirety of the Bills’ offense revolves around Allen”s ability to perform in shotgun spread situations, both passing and running via designed concepts, read-and-react passing via dissecting coverages, and sometimes, just straight-up improvising.

Longtime NFL Films analyst Greg Cossell called “the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL.” He was right. Allen’s talent as a player is beyond that of even Patrick Mahomes, in my opinion.

There’s heavy pressure revolving around the Bills this season. This is a great chance for Allen to show some consistency, both year-to-year (which he has done), and week-to-week.

4. Patrick Mahomes – QB, Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 1)

Mahomes gets the nod over Allen for his consistency over the past four seasons. As great as Allen’s potential peak seems to be, Mahomes, who outdueled Allen and the Bills for a second consecutive season in the playoffs (last year’s AFC Divisional was an all-time classic), Mahomes has already proven to me that he’s here to stay as an all-time talent.

With Tyreek Hill gone, and Travis Kelce now at age 33, the second act of Mahomes is career is already beginning.

Now that he’s off his rookie deal, with his new contract taking up much of the Chiefs’ cap space, can he work with newer, lesser targets (not all-time talents like Tyreek Hill), and perhaps a modified offense (Ronald Jones II signing at running back signals to me they may look to add in a power rushing element under-center), to keep Kansas City in the mix as a Super Bowl contender?

I think Mahomes is up for the challenge.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was brought in from Green Bay to be Kansas City’s deep threat, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is a sneay double-digit touchdown candidate after being added as a “big” slot option. The Chiefs also drafted receiver Skyy Moore in the second round. Moore is a “speed” slot option who can maybe eventually run some of Hill’s routes, as well. He should be an immediate threat as a underneath yards-after-catch option.

Then of course, there’s the returning Kelce, perhaps Mahomes’ all-time favorite target, along with Mecold Hardman as a gadget option on pre-snap motion concepts.

I had a candid chat with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid about the lessons they learned from their weirdest and hardest season together, the AFC title game, and what it all means for 2022. Read this: https://t.co/h1gA8S22zf

— Kevin Clark (@bykevinclark) August 8, 2022

Last season, NFL defenses finally began to slow down Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid’s all-time prolific offense by playing more two-deep safety structures, with zone coverage muddling up the middle of the field, forcing Mahomes to be extra patient as a passer.

As great as Mahomes is as an improviser and playmaker, his impatience got the better of him at times in 2021.

I expect Mahomes to take another leap in 2022, evolving as a “super computer” passer within the pocket, who sometimes takes what the defense gives him.

“He was able to see some different coverages a little bit, more zone than what he’s seen in the first few years,” Andy Reid told The Ringer‘s Kevin Clark of Mahomes’s 2021 season.

“And so he worked through all that, and now he’s got a whole package of things in his head to counter….It was variations [of Cover 2] and it was important he saw those and as a professional—they’ll help him down the road. … There’s not a whole lot left people can show you,” Reid said.

His offensive line is among the best in the league (center Creed Humphrey and guard Joe Thuney are on this list), as they showed down the stretch of last season after gelling together.

The AFC West, a division Kansas City has won six season in a row, is loaded now. It’s perhaps the most talented division of all-time. But I would very surprised if the Chiefs surrender the crown this season.

3. Aaron Rodgers – QB, Green Bay Packers (Last year: 4)

After what seemed like an impending divorce heading into this past offseason, the unpredictable Aaron Rodgers surprised many by singing a four-year, $200 million contract extension ($153 million guaranteed) that will likely keep him in Green Back for the rest of his career.

Rodgers, 39, is near the end. He could very well play just two more seasons of his contract with the Packers. Or, he could play himself into a new contract after this. Or he may abruptly retire after this season.

There’s really no telling.

What we do know, is that he is coming off the best two-year stretch of his career, throwing for 85 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, leading the league in Total QBR in both seasons, as well as being named First-team All-Pro and NFL MVP award in both (!) campaigns.

After struggling some to find his footing in Year 1 under new head coach Matt LaFleur’s Shanahan-ish, under-center, power-running and play-action passing scheme, Rodgers then quickly mastered the concepts and mixed them in with some of his shotgun, freelance passing.

Packer fans were given a second surprise this offseason, and it was rather unpleasant.

Davante Adams, Rodgers’ favorite target, was dealt, at Adams’ request, to the Las Vegas Raiders.

Rodgers is now left with Allen Lazard, rookie second-round pick Christian Watson, veteran Sammy Watkins, and longtime friend, slot receiver Randall Cobb (age 32) as his projected top weapons. There as concern over whether or not Green Bay had an adequate pass-catching core even with Adams in the fold, now, there’s real concern.

Brett Favre is the only player in NFL history with back-to-back-to-back NFL MVPs (1995-1997).

Would it really surprise anyone if Aaron Rodgers goes scorched earth this year without Davante Adams and wins his third straight?

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 7, 2022

But I believe Rodgers will make do. Rookie Romeo Doubs, a fourth-round pick that I omitted in the paragraph above, is who I see as Rodgers’ eventual top target in Green Bay, even maybe by the end of this season.

And to help the passing game, the Packers have a top-tier offensive line, and the dynamic Aaron Jones, and bruising A.J. Dillon (who I think is their top back), to help take the pressure off by grinding down defenses, particularly in cold weather games later in the year.

Then there’s the defense.

The Packers are well-known for sticking to their philosophy of home-grown team-building, with minimal trades and high-priced free agent acquisitions.

This past draft, Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst used the franchise’s two first-round picks on players on defending national champion Georgia’s historic defense, in linebacker Quay Walker (No. 22 overall pick) and defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt (Georgia).

Green Bay is a complete team set up for success in the next few seasons, giving Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP searching for his second ring, a chance at a John Elway or Peyton Manning-like ending to his career.

2. Tom Brady – QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last year: 3)

The NFL’s best player of all-time, and all-time leader in wins, Super Bowl wins, games played, passing yards and touchdown passes, led the league in pass attempts (719), passing yards (5,316) and passing touchdowns (43) at the age of 44 last year.

This could be the final season for Brady, who once daringly set out to play quarterback in in the NFL until the age of 45, and now will achieve that feat, while still being the best quarterback in the game. Brady’s late career push, particularly after “On to Cincinnati,” is near incomprehensible. Already in the mix for the distinction of the greatest quarterback of all-time back in 2014, Brady has won four more Super Bowls in five appearances since then, and one title famously with his new team.

Those that know me, know that Brady is my favorite athlete or sports figure of all time. When he retires, there will be time to look back on his career as a whole, and what that meant to me and millions of others, but with at least one more season at play, let’s get to the 2022 Bucs.

The greatest of all time, Mr. @TomBrady. 🐐 #NFLTop100 pic.twitter.com/C7N5h5cmPw

— NFL (@NFL) September 3, 2022

*******

This was a weird offseason for Brady, who retired, then unretired, then signed a massive broadcast deal to be FOX‘s version of Tony Romo for NFL coverage when he retires. The latter contract goes into effect when he’s done playing, which could be after this season, but then again, if not thwarted, the overzealous Miami Dolphins almost landed a seemingly-interested Brady as a potential part-owner and quarterback this season, signaling perhaps that Brady had intentions to play past the age of 45 with a third club.

However he saw his career ending even months ago, it does seem that Brady has now settled on one last year in Tampa before finally hanging up his helmet and throwing arm.

The GOAT missed a big portion of the preseason and training camp to reportedly spend time with his family, and things have seemed a bit odd with the Bucs this preseason.

But even with some end-of-career oddities at play for Brady, he’s able to block out the noise and distractions to focus better than any athlete in human history.

Tampa is going through changes along the offensive line, particularly in the interior, but the likes of Tristan Wirfs and Shaq Mason, along with Brady’s super-computer processing and quick passing, should help minimize any effect that may have on the passing offense.

Leonard Fournette and the power running game should help, too. The deep-shot play-action passing to Mike Evans should still work well, as are passes to Chris Godwin in the seam and on downfield posts, when healthy.

Elsewhere, Brady convinced slot receiver Russell Gage, the seemingly spry Julio Jones, and tight end Kyle Rudolph to join the team for depth. Jones in particular looked rejuvenated in August.

Despite the unusual offseason, Brady and the Bucs are set up to win the NFC South and perhaps contend for another Super Bowl berth in what is becoming a watered-down NFC (compared to recent seasons).

If this is the last go-round for the GOAT, let’s all do our best to appreciate it. I know I will (as if there was any ever doubt).

1. Aaron Donald – DI, Los Angeles Rams (Last year: 2)

It was time.

After three straight seasons of ranking him at my No. 2 slot, It’s time to give Donald his due as No. 1.

Yes, the quarterback position is more valuable. But Donald, for my money, is inching closer to Lawrence Taylor to trump him to earn the moniker of greatest defensive player in NFL history.

Aaron Donald belongs on the Mount Rushmore of defensive players. But is Donald the best of all time? @ConorOrr details why the three-time Defensive Player of the Year could be the greatest ever https://t.co/BU4M6Goc3g pic.twitter.com/qQsB5rSuRa

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 8, 2022

Last season, he finally added a Super Bowl title to his absurd resume, and he was a major part in the action, pressuring Joe Burrow into a 4th-down incomplete pass that ended the game.

Donald is an absolute force in the interior. He’s unblockable, and would do the same as an EDGE defender, but the ability create constant pressure from the interior is more valuable.

In his eight seasons, Donald has 98 sacks (most in NFL since 2014) and 23 forced fumbles. He has 59 sacks in his last four seasons.

In the last seven seasons, Donald has also been named First-team All-Pro each year, and has won the Defensive Player of the Year award three times.

PFF has also graded him as the top interior defender for seven straight seasons (he was even graded as second-best in his rookie season) in overall play. Last season, PFF graded him first among his peers in pass rush, and second as a run defender.

He also led all interior defenders in pass rush win rate (26.7%) and QB pressures (64) last year.

Simply put, he is a menace.

He turned 31 this offseason, and despite swirling rumors of a possible early retirement, Donald and Rams were able to come to terms on a contract extension that makes him the highest-paid non-QB in the NFL.

He’s still clearly in the prime of his career, and his leadership, tenacity and gamesmanship (excluding a pretty recent embarrassing moment from him in joint-practice scuffle with the Bengals where he acted a bit foolish), make him one of the league’s bright spots, both on and off the field.

The Rams are top-heavy talented team with a great coaching staff. They have a solid shot at competing for back-to-back Super Bowl titles, and much of that is thanks to Donald, one of the 10-to-15 (at minimum) greatest football players of all-time.

NFL Friday Morning Madness: 2021 Award picks + Final Power Ranking

Posted on January 7, 2022January 7, 2022 by Brent Schwartz

As we ring in the new year, 2022, we do so by also saying goodbye to the 2021 NFL regular season.

With just one week left to play, the first ever Week 18, seven of eight division titles have been clinched, and 11 of 14 total playoff spots have been filled, with just three more berths and seeding left to be decided.

As it stands, there will be a few teams with nothing to play for in Week 18, which could signal a few key players resting up for the playoffs by missing a portion of their Week 18 contest, or sitting out their respective games entirely.

With that in mind, it feels like the right time to reveal my award picks and give my final power ranking for the season.

Some of these races are pretty tight, which makes some of these choices difficult. Give them a read and feel free to comment below the piece in the comments section.

We begin with the major awards, and then the final ‘The Better Half’ section follows.

Enjoy!

*******

MVP (Most Valuable Player) — Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Runner-up: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

This will certainly draw some ire. The battle between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, both three-time NFL MVPs, for this year’s award, is a fascinating case study.

Like other league awards, stats play a huge factor in determining a winner here, but determining a player’s ‘value’ to their team, along with team success, help bring a unique ‘storyline’ feel to the award.

The Packers have been the best team in football for most of the year, and will enter the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Aaron Rodgers leads the league in a ton of efficiency metrics, as he’s arguably been the most efficient quarterback this year. His league-high marks include: TD/INT ratio (35:4), Total QBR (67.8), passer rating (111.1), total EPA and EPA/play.

When voting for MVP, there is an amount of “who feels like the winner?” associated with the process, and Rodgers certainly fits that criteria.

But Tom Brady, who has reached a LeBron James/Aaron Donald-level of fatigue when determining his single-season success for awards, should be right there, when it comes to a narrative-based discussion surrounding the honor.

Is Tom Brady the MVP? 🤔@PFF_Steve on why he should be https://t.co/315iXJJcqY

— PFF (@PFF) January 5, 2022

In accounting for an injury-riddled team that has regressed mightily on defense, and been without pass-catchers such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown (who now is gone, if you haven’t heard) and Rob Gronkowski at various points, the Buccaneers have resembled one of the undermanned ‘Do Your Job’ teams throughout Brady’s Patriots career, without Bill Belichick to help team up with him to lift the squad up.

Still, Brady has the Bucs sitting at 12-4, one game behind the Packers, with one more week to go.

Brady leads the league in a few traditional volume-based stats — attempts (682), completions (456), passing yards (4,990), passing touchdowns (40) — and bests Rodgers in a few important advanced analytics-based efficiency metrics such as PFF grade (91.4, 2nd in NFL behind Joe Burrow) and WAR (4.7). That last stat, WAR (Wins above replacement), is a respected metric created by Pro Football Focus that is used to ” assess the value of a player with an eye toward winning football games.” Brady leads the league in WAR by a huge margin. Brady also is right behind Rodgers in Total QBR (66.7 to Rodgers’ 66.8).

Using @PFF WAR (wins above replacement) to assess the NFL MVP race pic.twitter.com/MHptRZpjD2

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) January 5, 2022

Many point to Brady’s struggles in two losses to the New Orleans Saints, including a 9-0 dumpster fire loss at home to New Orleans in December. Despite playing the game with numerous key injuries, there’s no excuse for a loss of that nature. But if that is to be docked against Brady, shouldn’t Rodgers’ 38-3, Week 1 loss to New Orleans be brought up, as well?

Wait, there’s more.

Brady has also been his usual self in the clutch, leading Tampa to a game-winning drive on five different occasions (four times versus 2021 playoff teams), which includes a win over the Patriots in Week 4, a double-digit comeback in Indianapolis to beat the Colts in Week 12, a walk-off overtime touchdown pass to Breshad Perriman to beat the the Bills in Week 14, and Sunday’s game-winning drive to beat the Jets (see tweet below) — a 93-yard journey with no timeouts, needing a touchdown, amidst all of the Antonio Brown drama.

In the Brady vs. Rodgers MVP debate, TD/INT will be cited, as will "advanced" metrics like EPA.

Here are four of Brady's 12 INTs that greatly affect both numbers pic.twitter.com/4nJnh04ijn

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) January 5, 2022

This can go on and on. The latter part of the tweet above includes an explanation of a few of Brady’s interceptions, that were really ghastly drops-turned turnovers by his teammates.

Certainly, Rodgers has done enough to be deserving of the award. It’s a close race.

Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t lose #NFL MVP votes because of his COVID-19 situation or due to someone thinking he’s a bad guy.

He should lose votes because Tom Brady deserves to win the award, says @robinlundberg

🏆: https://t.co/dZIt7RuOZr pic.twitter.com/2DWFiBa0Qi

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 6, 2022

Rodgers certainly shouldn’t be docked because he has been “unlikable,” which was foolish reasoning given by longtime NFL reporter Herb Arkush, who is one of the 50 AP voters whose vote will count, and doesn’t plan to vote for Rodgers.

This is an award given to on-field play.

But to be fair, Rodgers’ snafu-ish handling of his COVID-19 vaccination situation did lead to him missing Green Bay’s battle in Kansas City, where the Chiefs limited the Packers’ offense with QB Jordan Love to just 7 points in a KC victory.

Couple that with the likeliness of Rodgers sitting out all or most of Green Bay’s Week 18 battle, and Brady likely playing all of his versus Carolina, and you will see an even bigger gap between Brady and Rodgers in some statistical metrics.

Again, it’s a close race, and like many arguing for either side, my bias is known — I’m a big Brady supporter. To tell you the truth, I figured Rodgers had this award locked up a week ago, but after watching Brady overcome the the drama and ineptitude that plagued the Bucs on Sunday, just to win another game in clutch that no one is talking about, sort of shifted the narrative for me.

As great as Rodgers has been, you can make the case that Brady has been more valuable to his team this season. I just made that case, actually.

One of these two quarterbacks will win their fourth MVP award in a month. Who is it going to be?

OPOY (Offensive Player of the Year) — Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Runner-up: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Both Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor (along with Joe Burrow), would help round out a ‘Top 5′ of MVP voting, which would be helpful if there were additional votes given for second place, third place and so on. But there’s only one vote given for the award, and coupled with Brady and Rodgers’ success, and the value of a quarterback to its team, that makes it difficult for Kupp, or Taylor, especially, to be in the MVP race.

Now this award is a different story.

What Taylor has done this season has been extraordinary. He leads league the lead in rushing yards (1,734) and second place is over 500 yards behind. He also leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (18) by a wide a margin and leads the league in touchdowns scored (20). And despite the Colts harboring what may be the league’s best offensive line, Taylor’s performance is still more indicative of his talent at the position. He could be the new Derrick Henry, or close to him.

That being said, what Kupp has done this season has been more impressive.

Most of what he has done has not been “schemed.” Sure, some of his big chunk gains have come on designed play-action passing concepts by Rams head coach Sean McVay, but a lot of Kupp’s success has come from his route-running ability, where he excels both from the slot, and from the perimeter.

He’s always been a good slot receiver. He’s played in the slot for 617 snaps this year, according to PFF. He’s also had 324 snaps out wide, which is a hefty total for a perceived full-time slot pass catcher.

In 16 games, Kupp has totaled 138 catches for 1,829 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. He leads the league in all three metrics, which figures to give him the first pass catcher ‘triple crown’ since Steve Smith did so for the Carolina Panthers in 2005.

Kupp also leads the league in targets (184), with the next closest receiver, Davante Adams, being 22 targets behind.

With Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford having an up and own season, Kupp has been the spark plug of the Rams’ offense. The offense has simply evolved to revolve around him, and he has simply remained uncoverable. My vote would be for Kupp.

DOPY (Defensive Player of the Year) — T.J. Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Runner-up: Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

This may be the toughest award to decide this season.

Myles Garrett had a clear lead at midseason. Several other names have jumped in and out of the conversation, including Matthew Judon, Nick Bosa, and Trey Hendrickson. And Dallas Cowboys rookie phenom Micah Parsons should certainly be in the mix.

But with one week to go, to me, the battle comes down to T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald.

Donald won last year’s DOPY award, as well as three of the last four. There is a sense of voter fatigue with him, like there has been with LeBron James for the NBA’s MVP honor.

Donald leads the league in QB pressures by a wide margin, which is incredibly impressive for an interior defensive lineman. He has a solid case to win the award again.

But so does Steelers stand-up EDGE defender T.J. Watt.

Watt has been in the mix for the award in each of the last two seasons. This year, he leads the league with 21.5 sacks, and has added four forced fumbles, and a league-high (tied) three fumble recoveries.

Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been as strong of an overall unit as it’s been in the past, with the defense relying heavily on Watt and veteran Cameron Heyward. Both of them have delivered, with Watt being the driving force.

The Steelers are known for being a proud franchise, and with the offense as lowly as it’s been in 2021 for Ben Roethlisberger’s swan song season, it’s been Watt that has the led the charge for the 8-7-1 Steelers, who have a shot at a winning record this week, and an outside shot at a playoff spot.

OROY (Offensive Rookie of the Year) — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Runner-up: Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

As impressive as Mac Jones has been in spurts for the Patriots, he now falls back to the pack with the likes of Jaylen Waddle, Kyle Pitts and Creed Humphrey, as Ja’Marr Chase literally left behind everyone in the field last week versus the Chiefs.

In two important wins over Baltimore and Kansas City in the last two weeks, Chase has totaled 18 catches on 22 targets for 391 yards and three touchdowns to bring his total numbers on the year to: 79 catches, 1,429 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns.

He’s been the league’s most explosive downfield threat, leading the NFL in yards per reception (18.1) among qualified candidates.

There were many (including myself) questioning the Bengals ‘ selection of Chase with the fifth overall pick over a quality offensive tackle prospect last spring. The move seemed like too much of a gift toward Burrow, and less of an ideal decision toward overall team-building.

And although the Bengals’ O-line is indeed still a weakness, and the tackle position must be addressed in the offseason, Chase has proven to be the correct pick.

Burrow and Chase have teamed up to form perhaps the most dangerous QB-pass catcher combo in the game today, or at least up there with Patrick Mahoems-Tyreek Hill.

Although Mac Jones may bring more career-long value to his team than Chase, it’s Chase who deserves this particular award this season, no question.

DROY (Defensive Rookie of the Year) — Micah Parsons, LB/EDGE, Dallas Cowboys

Runner-up: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos

This is a pretty easy pick. Patrick Surtain II has had an awesome rookie season, and should be a shutdown cornerback for years to come, but Micah Parsons is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate, let alone Defensive Rookie of the Year. Parsons has the highest PFF grade (88.7) of any linebacker this year, but also has played 374 snaps on the D-line as an EDGE defender (according to PFF), where he leads the league in PFF pass rush grade (93.0) and is sixth in the NFL with 13 sacks. He’s been one of the best players in football this season, period.

Comeback Player of the Year — Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Runner-up: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Despite Prescott’s solid season in return from injury, this one has become pretty simple for me in recent weeks. Joe Burrow, with help from his buddy Ja’Marr Chase, has been marvelous in return from last season’s knee injury, helping to lead the Bengals to a surprising AFC North title, all while being near the top of the league in may statistical categories.

Coach of the Year — Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans

Runner-up: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers

It feels sort of wrong for Matt LaFleur, who has 13 wins in each of his first three seasons in Green Bay, to not win the award. If he wins it, there will be no pushback from me.

But what Mike Vrabel has done in Tennessee in this season has been more impressive. Dealing with an NFL-record 88 different starters in a single season, Vrabel has the Titans on the brink of capturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and it’s ever-important bye. He’s done much of this without arguably his two best players — running back Derrick Henry and receiver A.J. Brown.

If the Titans beat the Texans on Sunday, the award should be his.

Executive of the Year — Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Runner-up: Brian Gutekunst, Green Bay Packers

No one would fault anyone for voting for Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst here. He’s built perhaps the most complete team in football, all while dealing with the Aaron Rodgers offseason drama, to have the Packers as the Super Bowl favorite here in January.

But give me Bill Belichick, whose plan to move at hyper-speed to success following the departure of Tom Brady amidst a pandemic-riddled 2020, has panned out.

The Patriots spent a free agency-record $163 million guaranteed in free agency, and are seeing some great returns already from some such as EDGE Matthew Judon.

New England also drafted rookie QB Mac Jones in the first round, and have ushered him in nicely into the Patriot Way as the Patriots head back to the Playoffs.

Had New England defeated the Buffalo Bills last month, and grabbed the AFC’s No. 1 seed, Belichick would have been the vote for Coach of the Year, as well.

THE BETTER HALF

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3) (Last week: 1). They’ve been the NFL’s best and most complete team for much of the season. This may be Aaron Rodgers’ best chance yet at a second Super Bowl ring.

2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4) (Last week: 3). Even with Matthew Stafford playing messy football, they’re a Super Bowl contender. This is banking on them finally beating nemesis San Francisco to clinch the NFC’s No. 2 seed, though.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) (Last week: 2). The loss in Cincinnati likely bumped them out of having a bye. They were on a roll. They’re the back-to-back defending AFC champs, so they enter the playoff field as the conference’s favorite. But just how good is their defense? Will they hold up versus the likes of Buffalo? Or versus the ground game of Jonathan Taylor and Indianapolis?

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4) (Last week: 4). Tom Brady has done a lot to prop them up this season. And that’s exactly why they can’t be counted out in the playoffs. But it does sort of feel like it’s not their year. We shall see. If their defense can flip the switch to even ‘moderately good,’ then look out.

5. Buffalo Bills (10-6) (Last week: 7). With Josh Allen manning their offense, they’re a Super Bowl contender. They’ve showed some toughness recently, too. Both mentally and physically.

6. Tennessee Titans (11-5) (Last week: 8). The Titans have A.J. Brown healthy and back on the field, playing well. Now, it’s Derrick Henry’s turn. The ‘King’ could reportedly play this week, if not, in the playoffs. Tennessee is a win over the Houston Texans away from clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed, just as they re-welcome their star running back. What a great job by head coach Mike Vrabel to keep this team afloat amidst all of the madness.

7. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) (Last week: 5). They sort of felt like a team of destiny early on, but that magic has waned as of late. They’re still a great team. You can’t count them out.

8. New England Patriots (10-6) (Last week: 9). Like the Colts, they have the structure and identity of a team that could make a run in the playoffs, especially with Bill Belichick at coach, and the AFC as is. Is Mac Jones ready?

9. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) (Last week: 10). This has been a helluva season for them. Joe Burrow has taken the leap, and it looks like they made the right move in drafting Ja’Marr Chase over an offensive tackle with pick No. 5 last spring, eh? Let’s hear it for the AFC North champions.

10. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) (Last week: 6). They should be able to beat the Jaguars on Sunday to clinch a wild card spot, but their home loss to Las Vegas brought them down to earth some. They have the DNA of a tough playoff team, but they’ll ultimately go as far as Carson Wentz allows them to.

11. Arizona Cardinals (11-5) (Last week: 12). The Cardinals still have a shot at the NFC West. That was a tough win in Dallas last Sunday. Maybe they’re not dead yet. They still don’t ooze confidence, heading into the playoffs. But that was a step back in the rigth direction.

12. San Francisco 49ers (9-7) (Last week: 11). They need to beat the Rams for a sixth straight time to ensure they get into the playoffs. A loss and a Saints win means they’re out. If it’s Trey Lance who gets the start, can the rookie get the job done?

13. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) (Last week: 16). Justin Herbert is perhaps as as talented a quarterback as any in this league, but the Chargers are…well, the Chargers. Can they overcome their franchise’s energy to defeat the Raiders in Las Vegas? Technically, they’re a better team, but I wouldn’t drop any money on them. Las Vegas has been a more mentally tough team this season.

14. Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) (Last week: NR). Derek Carr (with some help from Hunter Renfrow) has done an incredible job keeping the Raiders season alive. They host the Chargers in a de-facto playoff game on Sunday night. If they win, they’re in.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) (Last week: 15). The Eagles are going to the playoffs in Year 1 under rookie head coach Nick Sirianni. Jalen Hurts has had his ups and downs, but he’s proven to be a solid quarterback. Considering the lackluster impending rookie draft class of passers, Philadelphia should use their three first-round draft picks on other positions in hopes of building a solid team around Hurts, unless they can swing a deal for a star QB such as Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or maybe Deshaun Watson. If not, they should stick with Hurts.

16. Baltimore Ravens (8-8) (Last week: 14). Injuries derailed their regular season before it even began. They’ve lost five straight since an 8-3 start that had them as AFC frontrunners at the time. As great as the Bengals’ story is this season, a healthy Lamar Jackson, even with the rest of the team as is, probably would have given the Ravens the AFC North title this year. Instead, they’ll likely miss the playoffs.

Next Up: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland

Week 16 takeaways: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow lead Bills, Bengals to huge division wins

Posted on December 28, 2021December 28, 2021 by Brent Schwartz

Week 16’s results shifted divisions, included major upsets and ultimately moved us one week closer to the end of the regular season.

There will be two more weeks of non-playoff pro football to kick off January, with the first ever Week 18 taking place on Sunday, January 9th.

Last year, from the start of the regular season through the Super Bowl, there were 262 player positives.

There already have been more than 400 player positives in the month of December alone.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 27, 2021

There are several factors at play in the race for playoff seeding, which includes a ravaging of rosters via positive COVID-19 cases deeply affecting some contests (WAS-DAL, MIA-NO, etc.).

This has also been one of the tightest races to the postseason in history, particularly in the AFC, where just one team, the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West champions) has clinched a playoff spot.

Old school AFC East currently has seeds 4-7.

Remarkable job by the Dolphins to climb back into the playoff race after starting 1-7 pic.twitter.com/dVNUVpgcYA

— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) December 28, 2021

With this being the first season with a 17-game schedule, just one season after the league introduced an extra playoff team for each conference, there are a lot of similarities to this season and 2002, which was a year in which the league added the Houston Texans as a team, and realigned the league to feature eight divisions, instead of six.

The mad dash in the AFC feels similar this season. The league will probably better adjust to this new format next season, meaning we can expect slightly less chaos. But for now, let’s enjoy the ride.

There are a lot of takeaways from this week’s action, let’s tackle them in our weekly power ranking section — The Better Half.

THE BETTER HALF

1. Green Bay Packers (12-3) (Last week: 1).

Green Bay survived the Cleveland Browns. They feel and look like a Super Bowl-winning squad, and Aaron Rodgers is close to winning his fourth NFL MVP award, and second in a row.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) (Last week: 2).

The Chiefs have been on fire these past two months, particularly on defense. Their matchup in Cincinnati this week will be a sign of how they stack up versus one of the better (but not great) AFC squads on the road.

Patrick Mahomes record over his last 26 games played in November, December and January (including postseason):

26-0

twenty six and zero

um wut pic.twitter.com/JalYlQS7kK

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 27, 2021

3. Los Angeles Rams (11-4) (Last week: 3).

Matthew Stafford had an ugly outing in Minnesota, but regardless, the Rams are still winning. Cooper Kupp (132 catches, 1,734 receiving yards, 13 TDs through 15 games) is having arguably the greatest season for a wide receiver in NFL history. He’s been amazing to watch.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) (Last week: 4).

Tampa will need to have Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back for the playoffs to have a solid shot of returning to the Super Bowl, but for now, the return of Antonio Brown will do for Tom Brady, who has helped elevate a Bucs team that hasn’t been at full go for virtually the entire season. That was a solid win in Carolina, even with the Panthers looking like one of the league’s worst teams.

5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) (Last week: 5).

Here comes Dallas. They’re starting to resemble the Super Bowl contending-team that they were earlier in the season. They have a Super Bowl “feel” to them, much like Green Bay, if that makes sense. If they can win out and hang onto the NFC’s No. 2 seed, that would be of big help. But they’ll need some help to do that.

6. Indianapolis Colts (9-6) (Last week: 6).

Down linebacker Darius Leonard, league-best offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, and three more O-line starters for much of the game, the Colts rallied to win in Arizona. Even with Carson Wentz unable to find a rhythm at QB, Indianapolis is a clear contender in the AFC.

7. Buffalo Bills (9-6) (Last week: 8).

The Bills became the first team to win in New England in back to back seasons since Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts did so in 2005 and 2006. Josh Allen (378 total yards, three TDs) was seemingly unstoppable, as Buffalo never punted, scoring on six of their seven possessions, only being stopped by a fourth-and-goal incompletion early on. In all, the Bills converted nine of 16 third and fourth down conversions. At this point in time, they are the better team than the Patriots, and that will likely show in a second consecutive AFC East title.

8. Tennessee Titans (10-5) (Last week: 11).

Tennessee certainly welcomed back receiver A.J. Brown (11 catches, 145 yards, 1 TD vs SF on TNF) with open arms. If they can get Derrick Henry back for the postseason, watch out. They have championship mettle and moxie.

9. New England Patriots (9-6) (Last week: 7). With Cole Beasley out, reserve receiver and special-teamer Isiaiah McKenzie, who entered the game with seven catches for 37 yards, manned the slot position for Buffalo, and had a career-best effort. McKenzie, mostly guarded by Patriots slot CB Myles Bryant, went for 11 catches, 125 receiving yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Bryant was helpless in man coverage/Cover-1 looks on Sunday, with McKenzie really just running across the field on most passing plays. Jalen Mills was equally as bad in zone coverage, allowing any and every pass to be completed underneath versus him. New England had no answer for Josh Allen on defense, and on offense, converted on just one of 10 third-down attempts. Judging by this game, the Patriots badly missed slot cornerback Jonathan Jones and pass-catching back James White. Both suffered season-ending injuries earlier in the season. A Patriots-Bills matchup is the most-likely projected wild card contest in the league, according to ESPN‘s FPI, so New England better figure out how to play these Bills, or they’ll be one and done in the playoffs.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) (Last week: 14).

The AFC North is still a logjam, but the Bengals can now win the division by winning just one of their final two games. Joe Burrow, head coach Zac Taylor, offseason EDGE addition Trey Hendrickson and more have helped turn the Bengals into a pretty good team. Cincinnati fans should be excited for the future, even if a deep playoff run in 2021 is mostly unrealistic.

11. San Francisco 49ers (8-7) (Last week: 9).

That was a rough loss in Tennessee. The 49ers find themselves in a little trouble now, but they should still make the postseason. Jimmy Garoppolo could miss some time, so Trey Lance may make his first start this week at home versus the Houston Texans. Rookie QB Davis Mills has been impressive for Houston, putting a little bit of pressure on Lance.

12. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) (Last week: 10).

For the second straight season, they’re free-falling down the stretch. They have a playoff spot clinched, but no one should feel good about hem heading into January. Can they turn it around? Good grief.

13. Miami Dolphins (8-7) (Last week: NR).

Here come the Dolphins. Sure, they’ve beaten up on a slew of bad opponents with bad quarterback situations, but still, to win seven straight games versus anyone in this league is impressive. Give credit where it’s due. If they can win in Tennessee and at home versus New England, they’re in the playoffs. That seems like too much to ask, but will you count them out? They’re a tough bunch.

14. Baltimore Ravens (8-7) (Last week: 13).

Injuries are ultimately proving too much for them this season. They’ve lost four straight, despite hanging tough in some of their losses versus good teams.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) (Last week: NR).

Here come the Eagles. Loaded with three first-round picks in the Spring, and getting some good play out of quarterback Jalen Hurts, Philly has been a second-half-of-the-season surprise. They have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, but for now, Eagles fans should just enjoy the ride.

16. Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) (Last week: 12).

Their loss to Houston on Sunday was as embarrassing and detrimental of a loss as we’ve seen in 2021, but the Chargers still have a shot at the playoffs. They’re not very good, but they have some good players, including young quarterback Justin Herbert. Can they rally?

Next Up: Minnesota, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New Orleans

Damien Harris -- 2021 December Patriots Practice

Gut Check Time: Two key Week 16 divisional battles may decide AFC East, AFC North

Posted on December 23, 2021December 23, 2021 by Brent Schwartz

With three weeks to go in the NFL season, the games, similar to the NBA, have become an afterthought to the sudden surging of COVID-19 cases across the country, giving the nation a March 2020 feel, when it comes to news of the virus.

Even with the 2020 NFL season being played with virtually no fans in the stands, and the 2020 NBA playoffs played entirely in a ‘bubble’ in Orlando, Florida, it feels as if the pandemic is affecting the sports world now, in December, 2020, more than ever.

There have been hundreds of players in both the NFL and NBA that have been put into health and safety protocols over the past 10-12 days.

Here's a full list of all the players placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list today. All 38 players tested positive, per the NFL. pic.twitter.com/dRnkQgngH0

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 22, 2021

Head coaches have been forced to miss games, as have stars of franchises, and more.

Washington was forced to start Patriots practice-squad quarterback Garrett Gilbert, whom they signed from New England days before, on Tuesday to face the Eagles in Philadelphia in a game that likely decided their season. (They lost, but Gilbert hung tough).

More and more cases, or news of players entering health and safety protocols, have happened this week, making it uncertain if any of them can play this weekend in an ever-important slate of Week 16 action, with the playoffs looming.

But controlling the spread of the virus is more important than the games themselves, or your fantasy football playoffs with your buddies and friends.

Still, both the NFL and NBA have stated, in so many words, that the show must go on, regardless of who can play or not.

Week 16 in the NFL has a slew of interesting matchups, but none bigger than two division-deciding (virtually) contests in the AFC East and AFC North. Let’s give a quick breakdown on those, before getting to our weekly power rankings.

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5), 1:00 PM ET, CBS

Needless to say, this contest between the two AFC East rivals should be much different than their Week 13 clash in Buffalo. It may be windy, and it should be cold, but more normal football should take place. That means the Bills will look to utilize Josh Allen again. Slot receiver Cole Beasley will miss the game due to COVID-19 protocol, so now the Patriots can key on Stefon Diggs, and containing Allen. The fourth-year QB will still make plays for Buffalo, though, putting more pressure on Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones and the New England offense. With rookie Rhamondre Stevenson iffy for Sunday, it’ll be Damien Harris who will get the brunt of the carries, probably regardless.

Damien Harris seems to be feeling fired up heading into Bills week! (Audio NSFW) @ABC6 #ForeverNE #NEvsBUF @DHx34 pic.twitter.com/jMXjnaIV8f

— Ian Steele (@IanSteeleABC6) December 22, 2021

New England will certainly throw the ball more than three times in this contest, but establishing the run versus the Bills defense is once again top priority. Through the air, Nelson Agholor (head) and Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19/reserve list) may be no gos. Jones needs at least one to return by Sunday to have a formidable receiving duo. Being smart, and attacking the Bills underneath (Bills LB Tremaine Edmunds, specifically) should be the way to go through the air. This could be a big game for Jakobi Meyers.

Honestly, this sort of feels like Buffalo is primed to pull an upset, yet, I can’t go through with it. Not in a contest that features a head-coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Sean McDermott. Patriots fans have waited a long two years since their last AFC East title. They should get that much closer on Sunday, after another nail-biting win over Buffalo. Patriots 24, Bills 20.

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), 1:00 PM ET, CBS

Back in October, the Bengals surprisingly clobbered the Ravens, 41-17, in Baltimore. Rookie phenom receiver Ja’Marr Chase racked up 201 yards and a long score (82-yarder) on just eight catches, as Joe Burrow and Cincinnati destroyed Baltimore’s defense.

This time around, the Ravens may not even have Lamar Jackson at quarterback. If they don’t, it’ll be second-year man Tyler Huntley, who has been a pleasant surprise. He’s been solid in the clutch, and his improvisational ability gives Baltimore a semblance of QB-running ability, even if that’s not off designed runs, or to the ability that Jackson brings.

Baltimore is the more experienced team. They’re better coached. They’ve been here, but they are absolutely reeling from injuries.

This is the Bengals’ time to strike. Cincinnati should be able to lean both on Joe Mixon and the running game and Burrow and the passing game.

Even if Jackson misses the game, everything is telling me that Baltimore will pull this out with a display of mental and physical toughness. After all, both teams’ seasons are on the line. But I think the AFC North, at least this season, is susceptible to a take over via new blood. It’s been a wonky season. Give me the Bengals at home. Bengals 27, Ravens 24.

THE BETTER HALF

1. Green Bay Packers (11-3) (Last week: 1). With the competition doing less than treading water recently, Aaron Rodgers is in better position to win his fourth NFL MVP award (and second straight), than he’s been all season.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) (Last week: 3). As of Thursday, both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are on the COVID-19 reserve list. That will complicate things for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense this Sunday at home versus the Steelers.

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-4) (Last week: 5). Jonathan Taylor has been fantastic, but at this point in time, I lean toward Cooper Kupp (barely) as the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year. Kupp has put up insane numbers in what is surely one of the best single seasons in league history for a wide receiver. He’s more than just an underneath slot option. He’s expanded into a pass catcher who can play in any role, using his footwork and overall route-running ability to be virtually uncoverable. What a player.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) (Last week: 2). The injuries didn’t help (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin), but it’s clear the Saints have the Bucs’ number. Tampa Bay could be seeing New Orleans at home in a 2-seed vs. 7-seed matchup in the NFC wild card round in January, so Tom Brady and company better figure this out. Although, last season, Tampa lost twice to New Orleans in the regular season, then defeated them in the Superdome in January.

5. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) (Last week: 7). Cowboys have quietly made their way back into contender status. Dallas hosts Washington this week before a matchup with Arizona in Week 17. There’s no hiding from that one. The Cardinals should be desperate, too, considering their recent slump. We’ll learn a great deal about both teams then, but for now, Dallas has to take care of business at home on Sunday Night Football to lock up the NFC East.

6. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) (Last week: 9). They were the faster, and possibly more physical team in their 27-17 win over the Patriots on Saturday night. They have big-time 2019 Titans energy, meaning they could find themselves surprising many to reach the AFC Championship Game. But that is likely their ceiling, unless Carson Wentz flips the script entirely in January. Those 2019 Titans were even handicapped by Ryan Tannehill, who at the time was a better quarterback (and still is) than Wentz right now. But for the time being, let’s praise the Colts. This is a well-coached team and wonderfully-crafted roster. Well done, Frank Reich and Chris Ballard.

7. New England Patriots (9-5) (Last week: 4). It took three full quarters for the Patriots, who entered the fourth period down 20-0, to match Indianapolis’ energy. Mac Jones’ dreadful start and late-game heroics/magic was reminiscent of Brady, though. That’s a macro-level, big-picture (beyond this season) silver lining for a franchise that is tied to its hopeful young quarterback. Next up — Buffalo. The Patriots will basically clinch the AFC East with a win. This is a massive game.

8. Buffalo Bills (8-6) (Last week: 10). After all that has happened recently, the Bills have a chance to avenge their loss to New England by taking down the Patriots in their own house this weekend, and re-taking the AFC East lead with just two weeks to go. Buffalo plays Atlanta and the New York Jets after this, so this game should decide the division either way.

9. San Francisco 49ers (8-6) (Last week: 11). Like the Colts in the AFC, the 49ers are quickly becoming a team in the NFC that has come on strong as of late, and that no team would like to face in January. The combination of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle is up there with the best one-two punches on offense in the league.

10. Arizona Cardinals (10-4) (Last week: 6). For the second straight season, the Cardinals are sliding down the stretch. They’ll make the playoffs regardless this time around. But they’ll need to show some fight versus Indianapolis, Dallas and Seattle to be any sort of a factor in the playoffs.

11. Tennessee Titans (9-5) (Last week: 8). They just need to get healthy. Without Derrick Henry or A.J. Brown, they can’t do much of anything on offense. But if those two can come back (and be relatively healthy) for the playoffs, watch out.

12. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) (Last week: 12). Justin Herbert is phenomenal, but like their predecessors, there’s still a lot of ‘Chargers are gonna’ Charger’ energy with this team. Winning two of their final three games may be enough to get them into the playoffs.

13. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (Last week: 13). Their sound coaching, and overall toughness/smarts have kept them afloat amidst a devastating season of injuries, but it’s starting to become too much. Their season is likely on the line in Cincinnati this week.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) (Last week: 15). A win at home over Baltimore on Sunday would give them a season sweep of the Ravens, and pull them extremely close to locking up the AFC North title. This is their shot. Biggest game of Joe Burrow’s NFL career thus far.

15. Minnesota Vikings (7-7) (Last week: 16). They’re hanging around, even if apathetically. They have talent, but no one should trust them.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) (Last week: NR). The Steelers, a proud franchise, have been gutsy this season. They’re still in the mix. Sunday’s game in Kansas City is almost a must-win for them, though.

Next Up: New Orleans, Miami, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Philadelphia

Burning Questions 🔥: NFL MVP race down to two candidates + Jags’ next HC, Russell Wilson ’22 landing spot

Posted on December 17, 2021December 17, 2021 by Brent Schwartz

Week 15 began on Thursday in Los Angeles with a rivalry tilt between the Kansas City Chiefs and L.A. Chargers.

A wild, back-and-forth contest was ended in overtime, when Patrick Mahomes found Travis Kelce over the middle, and the shifty tight end making several Chargers miss on a 34-yard touchdown catch and scamper for the win.

The victory pseudo-locked up a sixth straight AFC West crown for the Chiefs, who have now won seven straight, and are in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which comes with the ever-important, and lone, conference playoff bye.

In a season as wacky as this one, the race for playoff seeding figures to be an exciting trek.

For all teams, the regular season has entered its final month. There are four weeks remaining in the longest regular season in league history, with 30 teams readying to play out their final four games of their schedules (three each for Chiefs, Chargers).

Both the AFC and NFC now have three teams with an identical amount of losses at the top of their standings, making for an interesting month ahead.

As it stands, the Jacksonville Jaguars fired first-year head coach Urban Meyer after just 13 games, so there’s coal for the fire for a ‘burning questions’-type of piece, where I’ll give you my answers. This is a perfect opportunity for our Quick-Hits section.

Down, set, hut!

QUICK-HITS

— NFL MVP? The once-hectic race for the award for this season now is a two-man race involving two three-time winners in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. And at this point, it’s Brady with the clear lead, and even a tiny bit of breathing room. This season, Brady currently leads the league in completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, Total QBR, wins, sack percentage and PFF grade. Aaron Rodgers has volume stats than Tom Brady, partly because he missed a game due to COVID-19, which was a messy story that didn’t look good for the Packers’ QB, and likely will factor into this race. But Rodgers leads the league in passer rating and interception percentage, showing a knack for his overall efficiency this season post-Week 1, in which Green Bay suffered a stunning blowout defeat to the Saints. There’s more time left to decide the race. Green Bay currently leads the NFC via tiebreakers over Tampa Bay and Arizona. If the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the conference, that will help Rodgers’ case. Ultimately Brady is working with better offensive weaponry while Rodgers may be leading the better overall team equipped with a solid defense and an evolving, tough running game built for cold-weather football (A.J. Dillon). At this point, Rodgers missing a game, and Brady leading wins like Sunday’s over Buffalo in overtime, it’s the GOAT who has the clear lead as the race winds down.

Tom Brady OT TD pass vs Bills -- 2021 — Tom Brady looks on during his game-winning touchdown pass to Breshad Perriman in overtime to defeat the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. (Screenshot: NFL on CBS)

— With Urban Meyer ousted, who should be the Jacksonville Jaguars’ next head coach? How about current Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy? Bieniemy has been a hot topic over the past few offseasons, as many have wondered why he hasn’t been offered a NFL head coaching job already. He’s helped in the maturation of Patrick Mahomes and in the creation of the Chiefs’ all-time explosive offense over the past few seasons. Kansas City has been hit with some resistance this season, but the Chiefs are starting to problem-solve and play their way out of it. Bieniemy deserves some of the credit there. The Jaguars are a lowly franchise but they have assets in young QB Trevor Lawrence, a likely top-three draft pick in April, and and over $70 million in projected cap space to use on talent in free agency this offseason. Schematically, Bieniemy could bring a lot to the table for Lawerence. It’s an interesting fit that I’d like to see happen. If I had to guess, Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may also be in the mix when interviews begin for the role.

— We’re a few months away from the offseason, but the future of the Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson in particular, is a hot topic. If he leaves Seattle, where may he go next? If Wilson is dealt, the New Orleans Saints are an obvious fit, but if they can finesse their way around the salary cap, how about the New York Giants as a possible destination? The Giants will likely fire GM Dave Gettleman, a once respected, and succesful general manager who has failed in New York. Giants head coach Joe Judge is likely on the hot seat, but could return. In my eyes, there is a world where the Giants trade some significant draft capital to obtain Wilson, still find a way to improve their offensive line, retain Judge and most of their pretty-good, tough defense, and become a true contender in the NFC East. Plus, Wilson, although a different cat, would fit well in New York. He isn’t afraid of pressure, or the limelight, and his celebrity/talented artist wife, Ciara, would likely enjoy New York, as well (I’m guessing). It seems like a fun fit that is gaining some steam. Still, the Saints, with offensive-minded, wise/experienced head coach Sean Payton, is the best pairing for Wilson.

— As this piece is published around east coast lunch time on Friday, the NFL, along with the NBA, New York City, London, and other areas around the world are experiencing a huge surge/waves of increasing COVID-19 numbers. As it stands, both the Cleveland Browns and Washington Football team are down to starting third-string quarterbacks this weekend (as of now). Washington just signed New England Patriots practice squad QB Garrett Gilbert to start on Sunday in Philadelphia versus the Eagles in a virtual do-or-die game for both teams, in terms of playoff hopes. As of now, there have been over 130 NFL players put on the Reserve/COVID-19 list since Monday. Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams and Washington have roughly 70 players combined on the list. With COVID-19 still present in our society, and both the Delta and reportedly highly-transmissible Omicron variant now out there, and Holiday season in full swing, this is a friendly reminder for everyone to be safe.

THE BETTER HALF

(With this piece being released on Friday, in the middle of Week 15, we will have blurbs for only the participants of the important AFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football (Chiefs, Chargers). We will wait for next week’s edition for blurbs on each team.)

1. Green Bay Packers (10-3) (Last week: 1).

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3) (Last week: 2).

3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) (Last week: 4). They figured things out late, battling back to defeat the Chargers in LA via a brilliant fourth quarter by Patrick Mahomes (10-13, 197 yards 3 TD in final 10 minutes), and a takeover by Travis Kelce (10 rec, 191 yds, 2 TD). Two-high looks by competent teams are still giving their offense fits, but they’re battling they’re way out of it.

4. New England Patriots (9-4) (Last week: 5).

5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4) (Last week: 6).

6. Arizona Cardinals (10-3) (Last week: 3).

7. Dallas Cowboys (9-4) (Last week: 7).

8. Tennessee Titans (9-4) (Last week: 9).

9. Indianapolis Colts (7-6) (Last week: 10).

10. Buffalo Bills (7-6) (Last week: 8).

11. San Francisco 49ers (7-6) (Last week: 13).

12. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) (Last week: 12). They outplayed the Chiefs for much of the game, but couldn’t capitalize. They’re still in good position for a playoff spot, but will likely need to win two of their final three games to have a good shot at clinching.

13. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) (Last week: 11).

14. Cleveland Browns (7-6) (Last week: NR).

15. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) (Last week: 14).

16. Minnesota Vikings (6-7) (Last week: NR).

Next Up: Pittsburgh, Miami, Denver, New Orleans, Philadelphia